FERC: Solar + wind made up 98% of new US power generating capacity in Q1 2025

Solar and wind accounted for almost 98% of new US electrical generating capacity added in Q1 2025, according to new Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) data reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign.

Solar and wind also made up an impressive 100% of new capacity in March, and March was the 19th consecutive month in which solar was the largest source of new capacity.

Renewables were 100% of new capacity in March

In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through March 31, 2025), FERC says 446 megawatts (MW) of solar were placed into service in March, along with the 223.9 MW Shamrock Wind & Storage Project in Crockett County, TX. Combined, they accounted for 100% of all new generating capacity added during the month.

For the first quarter of the year, the combination of solar and wind (7,076 MW) was 97.8% of new capacity while natural gas (147 MW) provided just 2.0% and another 0.2% came from oil (11 MW).

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Solar was 66.6% of new capacity added in March

Solar accounted for two-thirds (66.6%) of all new generating capacity placed into service in March. It was 72.3% of new capacity added during Q1 2025.

Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity added each month from September 2023 to March 2025.

New wind accounted for the remaining third (33.4%) of capacity additions in March and provided over a fourth (25.5%) of new additions for the quarter.

Solar + wind are 22.5% of US utility-scale generating capacity

The installed capacities of solar (10.7%) and wind (11.8%) are now each more than a tenth of the US total. Taken together, they constitute almost one-fourth (22.5%) of the US’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.

Approximately 30% of US solar capacity is in the form of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that are not reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar + wind to more than 25% of the country’s total.

With the inclusion of hydropower (7.7%), biomass (1.1%), and geothermal (0.3%), renewables currently claim a 31.5% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity. If small-scale solar capacity is included, renewables are about one-third of total US generating capacity.

Ten years ago, the mix of utility-scale renewables accounted for 16.9% of total installed generating capacity, including solar (1.0%) and wind (5.7%). Thus, over the past decade, wind’s share of US generating capacity has more than doubled while that of solar has increased by more than tenfold.

Solar is still on track to be second-largest

FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between April 2025 and March 2028 total 89,452 MW – an amount more than four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (22,109 MW), the second fastest growing resource. FERC also foresees net growth for hydropower (596 MW) and geothermal (92 MW) but a decrease of 130 MW in biomass capacity.

Taken together, the net new “high probability” capacity additions by all renewable energy sources over the next three years – that is, the bulk of the Trump administration’s remaining time in office – would total 112,119 MW.  

On the other hand, there is no new nuclear capacity in FERC’s three-year forecast, while coal and oil are projected to contract by 24,372 MW and 2,108 MW, respectively. Natural gas capacity would expand by 1,738 MW.

Thus, adjusting for the different capacity factors of gas (59.7%), wind (34.3%), and utility-scale solar (23.4%), electricity generated by the projected new solar capacity to be added in the coming three years should be at least 20 times greater than that produced by the new natural gas capacity, while the electrical output by new wind capacity would be over seven times more than gas.

If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialize, by April 1, 2028, solar will account for nearly one-sixth (16.3%) of US installed utility-scale generating capacity. Wind would provide an additional 12.6% of the total. Thus, each would be greater than coal (12.4%) and substantially more than either nuclear power or hydropower (7.3% and 7.2%, respectively).

Assuming current growth rates continue, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar will likely surpass coal and wind in less than two years, placing solar in second place for installed generating capacity, behind only natural gas.

Renewables may overtake natural gas within three years

The mix of all utility-scale (i.e., >1 MW) renewables is now adding about two percentage points each year to its share of generating capacity. At that pace, by April 1, 2028, renewables would account for 37.5% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity, rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.2%). Solar and wind would constitute more than three-quarters of the installed renewable energy capacity. If those trendlines continue, utility-scale renewable energy capacity should surpass that of natural gas in 2029 or sooner.

However, as noted, FERC’s data do not account for the capacity of small-scale solar. If that is factored in, within three years, total US solar capacity (small-scale + utility-scale) could approach 330 GW. In turn, the mix of all renewables would exceed 40% of total installed capacity while the share of natural gas would drop to about 37%.

Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 223,620 MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 66,368 MW of new wind, 9,059 MW of new hydropower, 201 MW of new geothermal, and 39 MW of new biomass. By contrast, net new natural gas capacity potentially in the three-year pipeline totals just 29,912 MW. Consequently, renewables’ share could be even greater by early spring 2028.

“Notwithstanding the Trump Administration’s anti-renewable energy efforts during its first 100+ days, the strong growth of solar and wind continues,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “And FERC’s latest data and forecasts suggest this will not change in the near-term.” 

Electrek’s Take

This is encouraging, but it might change in the longer term, depending on what happens with the House draft budget, in which the Republicans are attempting to end the residential 30% solar tax credit.

Trump and the energy secretary are also doing everything they can to smash renewables and promote fossil fuel growth, thus being out of step with the rest of the world. They’re certainly doing a fine job kicking offshore wind where it counts. Only time will tell in terms of how much damage Trump inflicts.

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