Nigel Farage’s big announcement will pile more pressure on PM

No U-turn comes without a political cost.

This weekend, it has become clear there is a price to pay for Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to row back on winter fuel payment cuts.

One MP said in a text message: “We all want to see more”, while former prime minister Gordon Brown told Sky News this week the two-child benefit cap was “pretty discriminatory” and could be scrapped.

The cap, which prevents parents from claiming child tax credit or universal credit for more than two children, is a symbolic sore for Labour that saw seven MPs suspended from the party last year.

Now it’s back to cause more trouble.

A Downing Street source suggests little has changed in the last week, and looking at the cap has always been part of the (now delayed) Child Poverty Strategy.

But, beyond the whispers behind the scenes, one thing has overtly changed this weekend – growing pressure from Nigel Farage.

We expect Reform UK to announce this week that it will reinstate winter fuel payments and drop the cap.

Farage is parking his tanks on Labour’s lawn, trying to tap into working-class votes on uncomfortable territory for Starmer.

How would they pay for it? A combination of closing asylum hotels, cutting aid, and scrapping net-zero targets, the party says.

Headline-grabbing move

The beauty of not being in power is not having to make all the sums add up right now, and it is a headline-grabbing announcement that will, at the very least, reignite the conversation about the two-child cap.

It’s also a reminder that Reform UK, who were beaten by Labour in 89 out of the 98 constituencies they came second in last year, have set their sights beyond the Conservatives.

As for the Tories, who introduced the measure in 2017, leader Kemi Badenoch is clear, saying: “If you can’t afford to have lots of children, then you shouldn’t do so”.

Blue water between Tories and Reform UK

So, there is blue water between the Conservatives and Reform, but it’s the prime minister and his party that Farage is targeting now, and Labour is unclear on where it stands.

Deputy leader Angela Rayner told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that “lifting any measures that alleviate poverty is not a bad idea”.

More from Sky News:
PM’s winter fuel claim ‘not credible’
Starmer-Reeves Downing St ‘rift’

With the spending review fast approaching, Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be working out the actual cost, beyond the political one, of rowing back on winter fuel payment cuts.

But will the anger that the policy ignited among some Labour MPs end there? Or will it move to another uncomfortable subject?

As one MP puts it: “If there’s money for pensioners, why not children?”