Ranking the top 64 NHL draft prospects, including projected ceilings and floors

The games are done for the top draft prospects; there is no hockey left to be played. A few players in the top 10 played until the last possible moment, making a lasting impression on scouts and executives at the Memorial Cup. With the combine taking place this week in Buffalo, New York, players will undergo physical testing and a rigorous interview process with interested teams. The combine allows teams to ask out-of-the-box questions, get a feel for the personalities of the players and, in some cases, understand the significance of injuries.

There is room for movement on the draft board because combine testing does impact model outputs. Furthermore, this list weighs scouting as 40% of the evaluation. The final ranking, which will be published June 23, will weigh scouting, projection, off-ice assessments and industry intel to varying degrees, which may see some players move up or down.

There are five parts of this set of rankings:

• The rank, which accounts for attributed value based on projection, the confidence of the projection and scouting.

• The NHL projection weighs the projection formula at 70% and scouting at 30%, and represents the most likely outcome for that player. The final edition of the rankings will include the player’s NHL ceiling.

• The NHL floor uses the same formula and represents the worst outcome, above 10% probability of occurring. If a player has a 4% chance of never playing NHL games and an 11% chance of becoming a fourth-line winger or No. 7 defenseman, then those projections will be used for NHL floor. For some players in the draft, the floor is outside of the NHL, perhaps the AHL or KHL.

• Projection confidence is based solely on the projection formula and forms two parts: confidence and volatility. The confidence has four tiers: High, fair, medium and low. This represents that confidence the model has that the player will reach the NHL projection for 200 or more NHL games. The level of confidence impacts the value of the player and, therefore, their rank. High confidence is above 80%, fair is 60% to 79%, medium is 35% to 59% and low is below 35%. The volatility has four categories: Low, slight, medium and high. Volatility relates to the range of outcomes a player has in their career. A player with a low volatility means there is a smaller range of outcomes for the NHL career, whether that is a No. 1 defenseman to top-pair defenseman, or third-line center to bottom-six forward. A player with high volatility has a wide range of outcomes, with relatively even distributions over the NHL projection. It could be related to a number of factors: the league they play in, their scoring if they changed leagues, injuries or a significant uptick/downturn in play. Many of these players are considered “raw” in their development curve.

• Strengths are each player’s standout abilities.

“Boom or bust” is an all-encompassing phrase with confidence and volatility. It means the player either hits their NHL projection or is unlikely to play 200 NHL games. The difference between a low-confidence/high-volatility projection and a boom-or-bust projection is simple: It means injuries played a role in the projection, and the sample size makes it difficult to confidently project the player’s most likely outcome; or that the league in which the player plays does not have a successful history of producing NHL players.

One other consideration is the “Russian factor,” where skilled Russians are more likely to return to Russia if they fail to hit their NHL projection.

Here is how the top 64 prospects line up according to my model:

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1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)

NHL projection: No. 1 defenseman
NHL floor: Top-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Mobility, puck moving, creativity, rush activation

2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)

NHL projection: Elite No. 1 center
NHL floor: Second-line winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Offensive instincts, explosiveness, transition offense, two-way play

3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)

NHL projection: First-line center
NHL floor: Second-line center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Transition play, speed, hockey sense, puck handling

4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-line power forward
NHL floor: Middle-six winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, scoring, hockey sense, size

5. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)

NHL projection: Top-six, two-way center
NHL floor: Third-line checking center
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, quick hands, playmaking, efficient puck play

6. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

NHL projection: Second-line center
NHL floor: Third-line scoring winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Versatility, two-way play, elite release, forechecking

7. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)

NHL projection: First-line scoring center
NHL floor: Injury-shortened career
Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, quick release, size

8. Viktor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

NHL projection: Top-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Middle-six scoring forward
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Motor, transition offense, two-way play, off-puck play, hard skill

9. Jake O’Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)

NHL projection: Top-six playmaking center
NHL floor: Middle-six scoring winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, creativity, hockey sense

10. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)

NHL projection: Top-four defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, transition defense, mobility, puck moving

11. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six power forward
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Motor, wall play, physicality, hard skill, competitiveness

12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)

NHL projection: Top-four shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair transition defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Size, stick positioning and use, hockey sense

13. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)

NHL projection: Second-line versatile forward
NHL floor: Third-line checker
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, versatility, two-way play, motor

14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)

NHL projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL floor: Middle-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Powerful stride, playmaking, puck handling

15. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)

NHL projection: Second-pair transition defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Gap control, mobility, transition play

16. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, finishing ability, hands, size

17. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, competitiveness, aggression, strength

18. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, speed, anticipation, forechecking

19. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)

NHL projection: Second-line scoring winger
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, offensive instincts, finishing ability

20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, anticipation, quick hands, competitiveness

21. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)

NHL projection: Top-four transition defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defensive defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, transition play, hockey sense

22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)

NHL projection: Top-six forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, agility, offensive play driving, elite release

23. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, transition, two-way play

24. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, two-way play, tenacity

25. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)

NHL projection: No. 1 starting goaltender
NHL floor: 1B tandem goaltender
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Anticipation, crisp movements, competitiveness, lateral agility

26. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Transition defense, in-zone defensive play, size, mobility

27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)

NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair offensive specialist
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, stick play, transition play, slap shot

28. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: Third-line power forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Motor, shooting, hard skill, straight-line speed

29. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line defensive center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, competitiveness, two-way play

30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, raw playmaking, competitiveness, puck battles

31. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: Third-line forward
NHL floor: NHL depth player
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Puck protection, skating, offensive instincts, puck skill

32. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six playmaker
NHL floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Hockey sense, creativity, puck handling, one-timer

33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamploops (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, shooting, creativity

34. Milton Gastrin, F, Modo (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, two-way instincts, motor

35. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)

NHL projection: Third-line power forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking forward
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, strength, competitiveness, puck skill

36. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulea (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Third-line scoring depth
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, finishing ability, offensive instincts

37. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)

NHL projection: Platoon starting goaltender
NHL floor: High-end NHL backup
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, controlled movements, patience in save selection

38. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 transition defender
NHL floor: AHL scoring defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Puck moving, gap control, creativity

39. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: Third-line, two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line defensive center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, penalty killing, competitiveness, finishing ability

40. Eric Nilson, F, Orebro (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: AHL top-six center
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, forechecking, competitiveness, defensive instincts

41. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, Muskegon (USHL)

NHL projection: Top-six power forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical winger
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Size, motor, two-way play, puck skill

42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six speedster
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, transition offense

43. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six power forward
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Quick release, creativity, physicality

44. Daniil Prokhorov, F, St. Petersburg (MHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six power forward
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Size, strength, physicality, heavy shot

45. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 transition defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Mobility, transition defense, physicality, size

46. Max Psenicka, D, Portland (WHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Instincts, mobility, gap control, puck moving

47. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six, two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking speedster
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Speed, transition play, motor

48. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Ufa (MHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Puck handling, instincts, creativity

49. Kurban Limatov, D, Moscow (MHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair, two-way defenseman
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Skating, mobility, aggressiveness, physicality

50. Mason West, F, Edina (USHS)

NHL projection: Middle-six physical forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical forward
Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Strength, physicality, size, mobility

51. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)

NHL projection: Third-line scoring winger
NHL floor: AHL top-six forward
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, playmaking, hockey sense

52. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, defensive play, motor

53. William Horcoff, F, Michigan (NCAA)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical presence
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, strength, size, wall play

54. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, puck retrievals, motor

55. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, size, physicality

56. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six defensive center
NHL floor: Fourth-line center
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Competitiveness, size, defensive play

57. David Bedkowski, D, Owen Sound (OHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 physical defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, size, strong stick, penalty killing

58. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: AHL depth
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Penalty killing, physicality, hard skill

59. Haoxi “Simon” Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, mobility, size, transition defense

60. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL floor: AHL depth
Projection confidence: Low confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, hard skill, playmaking

61. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping (SHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking winger
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical winger
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, two-way play, motor

62. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, physicality, heavy shot, skating

63. Alexei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)

NHL projection: 1B NHL goaltender
NHL floor: Reliable NHL backup
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, competitiveness, anticipation, athleticism

64. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USA)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way scoring depth
NHL floor: AHL top-six scoring forward
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, motor