CNBC Daily Open: Trump followed up on his threat to strike Iran — will this help or harm his credibility?

The United States conducted airstrikes on three of Iran’s nuclear sites on Saturday, entering Israel’s war against Tehran. The timing was unexpected. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was still considering U.S. involvement and would arrive at a decision “within the next two weeks.”

Financial and political analysts had largely taken that phrase as code word for inaction.

“There is also skepticism that the ‘two-week’ timetable is a too familiar saying used by the President to delay making any major decision,” wrote Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.

Indeed, Trump has commonly neglected to follow up after giving a “two week” timeframe on major actions, according to NBC News.

And who can forget the TACO trade? It’s an acronym that stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out” — which describes a pattern of the U.S. president threatening heavy tariffs, weighing down markets, but pausing or reducing their severity later on, helping stocks to rebound.

“Trump has to bury the TACO before the TACO buries him … he’s been forced to stand down on many occasion, and that has cost him a lot of credibility,” said David WOO, CEO of David Woo Unbound.

And so Trump followed up on his threat, and ahead of the proposed two-week timeline.

“There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,” Trump said on Saturday evening.

But given Trump’s criticism of U.S. getting involved in wars under other presidents, does America bombing Iran add to his credibility, or erode it further?

The U.S. strikes Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday said the United States had attacked Iranian nuclear sites, pushing America into Israel’s war with its longtime rival. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Sunday that “Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been obliterated,” a sentiment echoed by Trump, who stressed that “Obliteration is an accurate term.” The decision to attack Iran engages the American military in active warfare in the Middle East — something Trump had vowed to avoid.

Iran calls attacks ‘outrageous’
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday said Tehran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty and people after the “outrageous” U.S. attacks on three of its major nuclear enrichment facilities. Iranian state-owned media, meanwhile, reported that Iran’s parliament backed closing the Strait of Hormuz, citing a senior lawmaker. The U.S. on Sunday called on China to prevent Iran from doing so.

Investors assess U.S. attacks
U.S. futures slid Sunday evening stateside as investors reacted to Washington’s strikes on Iran. Futures tied to the S&P 500 lost 0.17%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.24% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.21%. On Monday, Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell at 1:45 p.m. Singapore time. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.15% and South Korea’s Kospi Index retreated 0.3%. However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index bucked the trend to climb 0.29%.

Oil prices pare gains
U.S. crude oil were up 1.1% to $74.65 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent climbed 1.12% to $77.88 per barrel early afternoon Singapore time. The commodity pared gains from earlier in the day, when prices jumped more than 2% in oil’s first trading session after Saturday’s events. That said, multiple analysts raised the prospect of oil hitting $100 per barrel, especially if exports through the Strait of Hormuz are affected.

[PRO] Eyes on inflation reading
Where markets go this week will depend on whether the conflict in the Middle East escalates after the U.S.’ involvement. Investors should also keep an eye on economic data. May’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, comes out Friday, and will tell if tariffs are starting to heat up inflation.

Why global markets are brushing off U.S. strikes on Iran

The U.S. joining the war between Israel and Iran might seem like a geopolitical flash point that would send markets tumbling.

Instead, investors are largely shrugging off the escalation, with many strategists believing the conflict to be contained — and even bullish for some risk assets.

“The markets view the attack on Iran as a relief with the nuclear threat now gone for the region,” said Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush, adding that he sees minimal risks of the Iran-Israel conflict spreading to the rest of the region and consequently more “isolated.”

Furthermore, rhetoric around the idea of shutting down the Hormuz waterway has been recurring from Iran, but it has never been acted upon, with experts highlighting that it is improbable.