Wasn’t Tesla supposed to start making a more affordable model 2 days from now?

For the better part of a year, Tesla has been promising “more affordable models” to replace the cancelled “Model 2.” The new models were supposed to go into production in the next 2 days, but it sure feels like that might not happen, because nobody’s heard anything at all about them.

For several years now, Tesla has been teasing everyone with the promise of more affordable models.

While the Tesla Model 3 is pretty reasonably priced, many were waiting for a promised $25,000 model, which many had taken to calling the “Model 2.”

Tesla was supposedly going to pursue a new revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing method to get costs down for the future vehicle, to enable this lower price.

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However, last year Tesla CEO Elon Musk refocused the company’s efforts on its much–delayed Robotaxi project, which finally launched last weekend in limited form in Austin, to mixed results. The company also wants to release a purpose-built Robotaxi vehicle called the Cybercab, which is first showed off last October. It plans to its unboxed manufacturing method for the Cybercab.

Along with this, Musk cancelled plans for a $25,000 vehicle, as first reported by Reuters and immediately denied by Musk. Reuters was later shown to be correct in its report. Musk routinely denies true media reports.

Despite canceling $25k Tesla, “more affordable models” were teased

Even after canceling plans for the $25,000 “Model 2,” Tesla continued to say it was working on “more affordable models.” It started including that phrase in its quarterly reports in April 2024, in its Q1 report. At the time, it said it had “updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.”

In each report since then, Tesla has reiterated that “Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.”

The most recent inclusion of this phrase is in Tesla’s Q1 2025 report, which was released on April 22 of this year. Again, Tesla said that these models were on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.

On that Q1 call, Tesla’s head of vehicle engineering, Lars Moravy, answered a question about the company’s more affordable models thusly:

Yeah, we’re still planning to release models this year. As with all launches, we’re working through like the last-minute issues that pop up. We’re not getting down one by one. At this point, I would say that ramp maybe — might be a little slower than we had hoped initially, but there’s nothing, just kind of given the turmoil that exists in the industry right now. But there’s nothing blocking us from starting production within the next — within the timeline laid out in the opening remarks. And I will say, it’s important to emphasize that as we’ve said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and the design of it is really limited to what we can do in our existing lines rather than build new ones. But we’ve been targeting the low cost of ownership. Monthly payment is the biggest differentiator for our vehicles. And that’s why we’re focused on bringing these new models with the big, new lowest price to the market within the constraints of selling.

That was said only two months ago, when Tesla should have had good visibility on the imminent start of production of new models. And the first half of 2025 ends on June 30, two days from now. As of yet, we have heard nothing more about it.

We should have heard something by now

Typically, in advance of the launch of a new model, we will get some sort of information. Rarely can a company, especially on with such a magnifying glass over everything it does, get away with a secret launch of something like a car. There’d be camouflaged vehicles, supplier reports, leaks from the inside, or something of the sort. Yet we’ve seen very little.

Now… Tesla did say that it would start production, rather than start sales, within the first half of this year. So they don’t have to have it ready on the lot, and even starting trial production could kind of qualify.

But even then – Tesla has never launched a surprise vehicle before without telling everyone about it well ahead of time. Tesla is known for its big hype vehicle unveilings, which often come many years before deliveries begin. Even new trim levels, like performance models, are usually known about months ahead of time.

The last time Tesla did pull off an unexpected vehicle launch was the next-gen Roadster, but that was 8 years ago, and it still hasn’t gone into production. Even the Robovan concept unveiled at the Cybercab event, which wasn’t expected at that particular event, had seen leaks years prior.

It might just be a stripped down Model 3/Y

Another wrinkle is that Tesla has never really detailed exactly what the phrase “more affordable models” means.

As best we can tell, the plan is to release a stripped-down version of the Model 3/Y, rather than an actual new model. However, in that case, the inclusion of the word “models” is strange, since that suggests an actual new model (or multiple new models) rather than just a cheaper version of an existing one.

Tesla could really use a boost right now

Importantly, now would be a good time for Tesla to have a more affordable model. The company is suffering from a huge sales decline in almost every territory where it sells – partially due to an aging product line, with only one new model released in the last 6 years, the Cybertruck… and it’s a flop.

The Model Y, Tesla’s most popular vehicle, did recently get a refresh, but that has failed to slow Tesla’s sales decline.

And there’s a lot of competition coming right now, too. In China, 4 Model Y competitors are launching this month – starting with the Xiaomi YU7 which was just announced and got 200,000 orders in 3 minutes.

Beyond the lack of a cheaper model, another reason for Tesla’s sales decline is CEO Elon Musk’s political activity, which included becoming the largest funder of anti-EV forces, along with showing support for German neo-Nazis, agreeing with a defense of Hitler’s actions in the Holocaust, and many other white supremacist statements.

These actions have driven protests against the company, embarrassed owners and pushed many customers away – and those protesters aren’t planning on stopping.

And while Musk also continues to promise world-changing innovations at Tesla (whenever he looks away from his phone for two seconds), few of them have materialized. Tesla is supposed to change the world in 6 ways this year (Semi, Roadster, unsupervised FSD, Cybercab, Optimus, and the “affordable EV”), and halfway through the year, has so far achieved none of them.

So, given that releasing an eyesore didn’t work, updating its most popular vehicle didn’t work, overpromising world-changing innovations didn’t work, and the CEO acting like a nazi at every possible turn didn’t work, maybe the company should try the one thing it hasn’t: a more affordable model. But Tesla, so far, has declined this strategy – despite teasing us for so long with the idea.

Now, we do still have two days, so who knows, maybe we’ll get some sort of announcement imminently. It is possible, for example, that Tesla is saving its announcement for the very end of the quarter, so as not to spoil its traditional end-of-quarter sales rush (on what is already expected to be a poor sales quarter). But if it does happen, we will be surprised. And if the change is anything more than a mildly de-contented Model 3/Y, we may even be impressed.

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