Promise of NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine may be too good to be true

It all sounded so promising: A NATO-style mutual defence guarantee for Ukraine, provided by the US, and agreed to by Vladimir Putin.

That was supposedly the concession won by Donald Trump during his summit with the Russian president in Alaska. US special envoy Steve Witkoff described the apparent breakthrough as “game-changing”.

But it seems it may be too good to be true. Because judging by the comments from Moscow since then, nothing has changed whatsoever.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov described the current discussions about future security guarantees for Ukraine as a “road to nowhere”. And now, “hopeless”.

On both occasions, the veteran diplomat made it clear that the only security guarantee Russia is willing to accept is one that involves them, referring each time to a proposal put forward by Moscow at talks with Kyiv in 2022.

Under those terms, Russia would be among a group of guarantors, along with China, and would have an effective veto over any efforts to defend Ukraine.

It was a non-starter for Kyiv then, and it still is now. But the Kremlin knows this.

I think it’s a proposal that’s designed to be rejected, so that Russia can continue its attempts to portray Ukraine as the barrier to peace, and try to distance Trump from Europe.

“[Ukraine is] not interested in a sustainable, fair, long-term settlement,” Lavrov said in Moscow, while also accusing Europe of “undermining” the “progress” made in Alaska.

But the only progress appears to be circular – there’s plenty of movement, but it’s going nowhere, like a hamster stuck in a wheel.

The same goes for the potential meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin.

At the start of the week, Trump claimed the two sides were “setting it up”, but Moscow still has its caveats.

“Our president has repeatedly said that he is ready to meet,” Lavrov said, “with the understanding that all issues…are worked out”.

Moscow claims Zelenskyy is an illegitimate leader, and Russia’s foreign minister hinted that he would need to be re-elected before any peace deal is signed, and before a presidential summit is held.

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So, despite the Trump administration’s optimism that a peace deal is within reach, it is clear that two of the fundamental stumbling blocks remain.

And Russia is in no obvious rush to find a way around them.