Why a Gaza peace deal may finally suit the key players

Timing is everything.

This couldn’t be truer for the current ceasefire deal on the table to end the devastating war in Gaza.

More than 67,000 Palestinians are dead, virtually all of Gaza has been flattened by Israel’s bombing campaign, and disease and famine stalk the Strip.

Gaza latest – Gaza ceasefire deal ‘could be signed tomorrow’

Yet Hamas – the group still holding the 20 or so living hostages in captivity – is still not entirely defeated.

Yes, they are weakened immensely, but has Benjamin Netanyahu achieved the “total victory” over the group he set out to do two years ago? No.

So why has he suddenly agreed to a partial victory?

Speaking to those in the Israeli security establishment, one could develop a somewhat cynical view about his decision.

Recent leaks in the media around talks between Donald Trump and Israel’s prime minister, reports that the US president told Mr Netanyahu to “stop being so f***ing negative,” could be more coordinated than it seems at first glance, according to these conversations that I am having here in Israel.

It now suits Mr Netanyahu politically to stop the war.

For the past two years, he has needed to keep his coalition with the far-right together to prevent his government from collapsing.

That meant continuing to pound Gaza, restricting the flow of aid, and allowing the likes of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir to continue, unchecked, to fan the flames of ethnonationalism and call for the ethnic cleansing of the area.

Now, next year’s elections are honing into view.

Mr Netanyahu needs a win so he can go to his country as the statesman who got the hostages back and ended the war.

He needs external pressure from the US president to get this war done.

Don’t forget that, for Mr Trump, the timing is also key; the Nobel Peace Prize is announced on Friday and there is not much more that the president wants than to put the gong on his mantelpiece.

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Some pessimists said that Mr Netanyahu’s government wouldn’t last for days after the 7 October 2023 attacks because of the massive security failings.

After all, this is a country that punishes political leaders more harshly than most.

But two years later, Mr Netanyahu is still fighting.

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Never mind that this deal looks a lot like the deal former US President Joe Biden presented more than a year ago. The timing wasn’t right then, but it might be now.

The Palestinians living through sheer hell in Gaza desperately need this deal to be finalised.

As do those Israelis with family still held captive by Hamas.

A dual hell for both sides, separated by mere miles, and depending on a man who may have finally decided that the time for peace has come because it suits him.