Sanctions alone won’t force Putin to end Ukraine war

Donald Trump has swung like a pendulum between favouring Russia and less often sympathising with Ukraine. This week he has tilted more toward Kyiv.

Leaders in the coalition of the willing meeting in London on Friday were keen to add momentum to that shift.

The US president has imposed sanctions on two leading Russian oil firms, doing what many had hoped America would do months ago.

European allies were quick to follow that lead. And some countries that have been trading Russian oil appear spooked enough to start backing away from doing so.

But analysts are warning against overstating the impact of all this.

Alexander Kolyandr, senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, told Sky News that sanctions won’t be enough on their own.

“There should be an understanding that sanctions alone would not force Putin to stop the war,” he said.

“So Ukraine should get more arms, Ukraine should get more support, and Ukraine should get more guarantees.”

There appears to have been progress on sending more long-range weapons to Ukraine.

It needs them to neutralise the threat of drones launched from miles behind Russia‘s border.

And possibly towards unfreezing Russia assets to use the proceeds to help fund the Ukrainian war effort, though some nations still oppose the idea.

But this week has seen an unusual level of alignment between the allies on both sides of the Atlantic. That will last as long as Trump does not change his mind.

The US president wants to broker an end to the war.

Putin will not be serious about negotiating for peace as long as he thinks he has a chance of victory.

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“Putin and the Kremlin are pretty much sure that they are winning the war,” Mr Kolyandr told Sky News, “and that if they keep on pushing, Ukraine might collapse.

“And that’s why I don’t think that President Putin is ready to agree to any kind of compromise which would be acceptable for Ukraine or its European allies.”

It may take a lot more than sanctions on a handful of oil companies to persuade Putin it is not in his interest to continue this war.