How the falling pound affects you – and who the winners and losers are

Friday’s mini-budget that promised billions in tax cuts and a multi-billion pound energy price cap has seen the value of the pound plummet against foreign currencies.

The new prime minister and her chancellor’s decision to cut various taxes by a combined £45bn, alongside a cap on energy prices that will cost taxpayers £60bn has resulted in a loss of market confidence.

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That loss of confidence in the government’s ability to pay back the billions they are spending means the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates – in a desperate bid to bring down inflation.

This all has an effect on Britain’s day-to-day spending. Here, Sky News looks at who will suffer and who will benefit from the pound’s slump.

Petrol

Fuel is traded in dollars.

This means that a low pound will buy less fuel, forcing prices at UK forecourts to rise.

Drivers will have noticed a recent dip in prices at the pumps – compared with this summer when they approached £2 a litre for diesel.

But the slump in value of the pound will likely wipe out that fall, which was a welcome relief for many.

According to the AA, a pound that equals $1.08 will mean an extra 13.5p per litre of petrol.

That would add around £7.50 to the cost of filling up an average 55-litre car, when factoring in VAT.

An AA spokesman added that had it not been for former Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s decision to cut fuel duty by 5p in March, motorists would have likely seen an even bigger increase in the price per litre – of around 18.5p.

Energy

Gas is also traded in dollars and therefore also suffers from a poor exchange rate.

As with oil, wholesale prices have dropped internationally since the start of the war in Ukraine, but with a weak pound, similarly the UK won’t experience the benefits.

Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, tells Sky News: “At this stage, this won’t affect bill payers directly, because the energy price cap is set below international energy prices, so we’ll be paying less anyway.

“Instead it will have an impact on how much the guarantee will cost the government.”

The more the price cap costs the government, the less confidence the market will have in the government’s capacity to pay it back, causing the original problem to spiral further.

Food

Any goods imported to the UK from abroad will cost more when the pound is weaker.

According to the government’s most recent food security report, the UK imports around 45% of its food.

This has proven a major problem during the Ukraine war, with grain exports unable to leave the country for several months this year.

Along with the dollar, the pound is also faring badly against the Euro, which will mean European-grown fruit and veg prices will increase.

Produce grown further afield, such as bananas, will also go up.

Not all retailers will pass all of that cost onto their customers, however.

Supermarkets are often the last to increase their prices off the back of rising costs, as they try to remain affordable, and often buy stocks in advance to mitigate sudden market shocks.

But Ms Coles cautions: “Supermarkets have warned that although they are already absorbing a great deal of the increased costs of supply, they have to pass some of it on.”

Tech

Most of our tech gadgets, such as smartphones and tablets, are manufactured abroad.

Apple, for example, is based in California, but uses parts manufactured in China and Taiwan.

Again, a week pound will mean these foreign-made products cost more in the UK.

Apple has already increased the price of its latest iPhone range. The iPhone 13 started at £949 when it launched last year. The iPhone 14 range is retailing at £1,099 – a 16% increase.

Holidays abroad

The most obvious place consumers will experience the slump in the pound is at the bureau de change.

Holidaymakers bound for the US will get particularly less for their money than they used to – but with the pound also down against the Euro, holidays to Europe will also be more expensive.

With the cost of fuel also on the rise, airlines and package holiday providers may also increase their prices to mitigate costs.

Mortgages

A weak pound means inflation – which is already at 10% – getting even higher.

When inflation is high, the Bank of England tries to bring it down by increasing interest rates.

This higher price of borrowing is designed to encourage people to borrow less, spend less, and save more.

Currently forecasts predict interest rates hitting 6% by November, which will mean huge increases in people’s mortgage repayments.

Halifax, the country’s largest mortgage provider, is removing fee-paying mortgages from Wednesday. These allow people to pay a fee in exchange for a lower interest rates.

Virgin Money and Skipton Building Society have withdrawn all their mortgage products until they have more certainty.

The two million people in the UK already on tracker and variable mortgages will see far more of their monthly pay packet spent on repayments.

And those coming to the end of a fixed rate or hoping to buy for the first time will have fewer, more expensive deals to choose from.

“The issue is the fact that fixed rate mortgages don’t just depend on the rate today, they also depend on rate expectation,” Ms Coles explains.

“The dramatic overnight change in market expectations of future rates has ramped up the cost of doing business, and lenders are taking a break to reassess and reprice.”

Pensions

People approaching retirement could suffer from UK bonds – or gilts – being sold off in response to the pound’s fall.

Some investors automatically switch people’s pensions from stocks to government bonds as they get closer to retirement age, which will leave them with a smaller pot in the current climate.

Pensioners living abroad will also suffer notably – as their pensions are paid in pounds but their expenses are in stronger currencies.

UK exporters

British businesses that sell their products and services abroad will benefit from the pound’s slump as foreign buyers look to take advantage of cheaper prices.

This will see the FTSE 100 companies benefit, as much of their money is made overseas, Ms Coles says.

It could also provide much-needed help for smaller UK businesses struggling with the increased costs of Brexit.

Local tourism

More holidaymakers could be drawn to the UK from abroad by the promise of a cheaper holiday.

While Britons get less for their money at the bureau de change, inbound tourists will get more.

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For example, a London hotel room that cost $200 (£186) at the start of 2022 now only costs $150.

Britons could also return to the ‘staycation’ trend seen during the COVID pandemic and also help boost the economy by supporting tourism and hospitality businesses at home.

Hedge funds

Hedge funds employ a strategy called ‘short selling’ or ‘shorting’ to take advantage of falling market prices.

It involves borrowing shares in a firm and selling them with a view to buying them back at a profit when prices fall.

Ms Coles says: “Plenty of hedge funds were shorting the pound before the fall – based on the belief that the markets had underestimated how long inflation would stick around for.

“So these paid off when the pound tumbled.”