Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to deliver a major speech on Friday, the anniversary of Russias invasion of Ukraine, outlining a so-called peace plan for the war.
Here are three questions to which analysts are looking for answers. 1. Will China provide military aid to Russia? If yes, what sort?
Experts believe that China is unlikely to supply weapons to Russia. United States and European officials have recently cited intelligence that Beijing was mulling over this possibility, although it has so far refrained from sending lethal aid such as artillery shells.
In response to such concerns, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular press conference on Wednesday that this was groundless speculation.
Associate research fellow James Char at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) believes that the claim of arms supply to Russia remains speculation.
But Beijing has been exploiting Moscows predicament by buying more Russian commodities at a discount since the start of the conflict, while avoiding transactions that might risk secondary sanctions, he said.
I think the Chinese Communist Party leadership would not want to take that risk, especially since the Chinese economy is still in the midst of recovering from its previous zero-Covid policy, added Dr Char.
Other experts have said that China supplying weapons to Russia could be perceived as an escalation of the war, and worsen relations with the US and other Western nations, running contrary to Beijings recent efforts to mend ties.
Professor Benjamin Ho of RSIS China programme said Chinas goal is simple: So long as the war does not spill into China, it is in Beijings interests to have all the major players distracted in Ukraine.
Having the West being bogged down with a conflict with Russia clearly works to Beijings advantage. Whether that requires China to send lethal weapons or not, I leave it to others imagination. 2. What specific proposals will Mr Xi provide to end the war?
Dr Chen Gang, a senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute, believes that Mr Xis peace initiative would include asking both sides to agree to a ceasefire and resume peace talks.
He could ask other countries to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, and for Ukraine to promise not to join the US-led Nato military alliance. He is likely to say that Russias security concerns should be respected.
These are part of Chinas basic position on the war, and Dr Chen does not expect a significant policy shift to be announced.
I dont think they will ask Russia to withdraw to pre-February 2022 positions or to give up Crimea.
China has refused to condemn Russias action or call it an invasion, instead using Moscows line that Nato had provoked the conflict. But Beijing has also said it is against war and the use of nuclear weapons. More On This Topic China says Russia ties solid as rock amid Ukraine peace push Beijing hopes peace between Russia and Ukraine can be Made in China Dr Char said the speech will largely comprise broad statements calling for a negotiated settlement that fall short of specifics on how to end the war.
By sticking to this third camp between the pro-Nato and pro-Russia positions, Beijing can continue to enjoy the most advantageous position among the major powers, he added.
This means it neither needs to exhaust its military and human resources like Moscow, nor hand over billions of dollars in aid, as Washington has been doing.
Prof Ho added: I doubt China has any clear plan to resolve the Ukraine war, at least not one which will be acceptable to Ukraine and other Western countries. 3. How will the plan fit into Mr Xis grand security vision for the world?
Political scientist Chong Ja Ian at the National University of Singapore expects Mr Xis speech to follow along the lines of the Global Security Initiative concept paper that China released on Tuesday, with broad statements about non-nuclear use and respect for sovereignty.
The initiative launched by Mr Xi in 2022 is his flagship security proposal, which aims to uphold indivisible security, a concept also endorsed by Russia.
The concept paper also stated, among other things, that the use of unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction do not solve problems but only create more difficulties and complications likely a reference to US and other Western nations that have imposed economic sanctions on Russia over the war.
Dr Char said the concept of indivisible security essentially calls for the right to safeguard ones legitimate security interests, and that no countrys security should be built at the expense of others security.
China also believes it has little to gain from switching to a pro-West position, and it does need Russia as a diplomatic partner.
Beijing realises that anything but a contrarian position (to the West) would deprive it of much-needed diplomatic space to manoeuvre, and so will likely continue to refrain from criticising Russia publicly, at least.
China is aware that its disagreements with the US and the other Western powers would not simply disappear even if it were to side with Kyiv, he added. More On This Topic US concerned by China-Russia ties as Putin signals Xi visit China says it will offer concrete ideas to end Ukraine war
