What to watch out for in Xi Jinpings peace speech

Published

3 years ago

February 23, 2023

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Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to deliver a major speech on Friday, the anniversary of Russias invasion of Ukraine, outlining a so-called peace plan for the war.

Here are three questions to which analysts are looking for answers. 1. Will China provide military aid to Russia? If yes, what sort?

Experts believe that China is unlikely to supply weapons to Russia. United States and European officials have recently cited intelligence that Beijing was mulling over this possibility, although it has so far refrained from sending lethal aid such as artillery shells.

In response to such concerns, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular press conference on Wednesday that this was groundless speculation.

Associate research fellow James Char at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) believes that the claim of arms supply to Russia remains speculation.

But Beijing has been exploiting Moscows predicament by buying more Russian commodities at a discount since the start of the conflict, while avoiding transactions that might risk secondary sanctions, he said.

I think the Chinese Communist Party leadership would not want to take that risk, especially since the Chinese economy is still in the midst of recovering from its previous zero-Covid policy, added Dr Char.

Other experts have said that China supplying weapons to Russia could be perceived as an escalation of the war, and worsen relations with the US and other Western nations, running contrary to Beijings recent efforts to mend ties.

Professor Benjamin Ho of RSIS China programme said Chinas goal is simple: So long as the war does not spill into China, it is in Beijings interests to have all the major players distracted in Ukraine.

Having the West being bogged down with a conflict with Russia clearly works to Beijings advantage. Whether that requires China to send lethal weapons or not, I leave it to others imagination. 2. What specific proposals will Mr Xi provide to end the war?

Dr Chen Gang, a senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute, believes that Mr Xis peace initiative would include asking both sides to agree to a ceasefire and resume peace talks.

He could ask other countries to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, and for Ukraine to promise not to join the US-led Nato military alliance. He is likely to say that Russias security concerns should be respected.

These are part of Chinas basic position on the war, and Dr Chen does not expect a significant policy shift to be announced.

I dont think they will ask Russia to withdraw to pre-February 2022 positions or to give up Crimea.

China has refused to condemn Russias action or call it an invasion, instead using Moscows line that Nato had provoked the conflict. But Beijing has also said it is against war and the use of nuclear weapons. More On This Topic China says Russia ties solid as rock amid Ukraine peace push Beijing hopes peace between Russia and Ukraine can be Made in China Dr Char said the speech will largely comprise broad statements calling for a negotiated settlement that fall short of specifics on how to end the war.

By sticking to this third camp between the pro-Nato and pro-Russia positions, Beijing can continue to enjoy the most advantageous position among the major powers, he added.

This means it neither needs to exhaust its military and human resources like Moscow, nor hand over billions of dollars in aid, as Washington has been doing.

Prof Ho added: I doubt China has any clear plan to resolve the Ukraine war, at least not one which will be acceptable to Ukraine and other Western countries. 3. How will the plan fit into Mr Xis grand security vision for the world?

Political scientist Chong Ja Ian at the National University of Singapore expects Mr Xis speech to follow along the lines of the Global Security Initiative concept paper that China released on Tuesday, with broad statements about non-nuclear use and respect for sovereignty.

The initiative launched by Mr Xi in 2022 is his flagship security proposal, which aims to uphold indivisible security, a concept also endorsed by Russia.

The concept paper also stated, among other things, that the use of unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction do not solve problems but only create more difficulties and complications likely a reference to US and other Western nations that have imposed economic sanctions on Russia over the war.

Dr Char said the concept of indivisible security essentially calls for the right to safeguard ones legitimate security interests, and that no countrys security should be built at the expense of others security.

China also believes it has little to gain from switching to a pro-West position, and it does need Russia as a diplomatic partner.

Beijing realises that anything but a contrarian position (to the West) would deprive it of much-needed diplomatic space to manoeuvre, and so will likely continue to refrain from criticising Russia publicly, at least.

China is aware that its disagreements with the US and the other Western powers would not simply disappear even if it were to side with Kyiv, he added. More On This Topic US concerned by China-Russia ties as Putin signals Xi visit China says it will offer concrete ideas to end Ukraine war

Politics

‘Diplomatic efforts’ under way to resolve Your Party row

Published

2 hours ago

September 19, 2025

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'Diplomatic efforts' under way to resolve Your Party row

“Diplomatic efforts” are under way to settle the row that has erupted between Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, Sky News has been told.

A source close to the pair said they were mediating behind the scenes to salvage the future of Your Party following a bitter public spat between the co-leaders.

The new left-wing outfit descended into chaos on Thursday when Mr Corbyn told followers to ignore an “unauthorised” email urging them to become paid members and said he was seeking legal advice.

Ms Sultana admitted to launching the membership portal without the former Labour leader’s sign-off but claimed she did so because she had been “sidelined” by a “sexist boys club”.

The former Labour MP had been sharing the portal on social media all morning and claimed 20,000 people had become members by Thursday afternoon.

With membership fees of £5 a week or £55 a year, that means more than £1m could have been raised before the row broke out.

Mr Corbyn told people to cancel their direct debits but Ms Sultana insisted the portal was a “safe and legitimate” way to pay.

The matter has now been referred to the Information Commissioner’s Office, who can issue fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover, or pass fraud and negligence cases to police.

A spokesperson for the ICO told Sky News on Friday: “We can confirm we have received a report and are assessing the information provided.”

Timeline of the row

Suspicions were aroused after Ms Sultana started sharing the membership portal on Thursday but Mr Corbyn did not. In one tweet she told followers to ignore “right wing bad faith actors” who are “desperate to claim this link is fake”.

Mr Corbyn then issued a statement claiming the portal was not legitimate.

It said: “This morning, an unauthorised email was sent to all yourparty.uk supporters with details of a supposed membership portal hosted in a new domain name.

“Legal advice is being taken. That email should be ignored by all supporters. If any direct debits have been set up, they should be immediately cancelled.”

The statement was signed by four other independent MPs who were part of the founding process of Your Party – Ayoub Khan, Adnan Hussain, Iqbal Mohamed and Shockat Adam.

However, it was not signed by Ms Sultana, who quit Labour to launch the new left-wing party with Mr Corbyn in July.

In a statement of her own, the Coventry South MP admitted the portal did not have the “dual authorisation” of herself and Mr Corbyn “which was the agreement made at the start of this process”.

However, she added: “After being sidelined by the MPs named in today’s statement and effectively frozen out of the official accounts, I took the step of launching a membership portal so that supporters could continue to engage and organise.”

She insisted that this was a “safe, secure, legitimate portal for the party”, adding: “My sole motivation has been to safeguard the grassroots involvement that is essential to building this party.

‘Sexist boys club’

“Unfortunately, I have been subjected to what can only be described as a sexist boys’ club: I have been treated appallingly and excluded completely.”

Later that evening, Your Party said it had reported itself to the ICO, the UK’s data protection watchdog.

It claimed that a “false membership system has been unilaterally launched”, with data collected and payments taken.

It also denied Ms Sultana’s claims that she had been excluded from discussions, calling the developments a “blow for everyone who has put their hope in a real alternative”

The split was described as “messy” and “embarrassing” by many of those who gave the party their financial backing.

Sam T, who signed up to the monthly membership, told Sky News he was considering cancelling his membership and “might as well go and give £5 to someone on the street”.

‘Get behind the Greens’

The row is the latest bump in the road for a party yet to officially agree on its name, decide policies, select candidates or hold a conference.

Ms Sultana appeared to blindside Mr Corbyn when she announced the venture in early July. There have also been internal rows about the leadership model as well as clashes over different views on trans rights.

Your Party insiders had previously told Sky News they wanted to be ready to fight the local elections next May

The Green Party, headed by new “eco-populist” leader Zac Polanski, is likely to be the biggest beneficiary if that does not happen.

Mr Corbyn’s former spokesperson, Matt Zarb-Cousin, said last night that “everyone on the left should join the Greens, including Jeremy and Zarah”.

“We are on the cusp of a far-right government taking control of Britain. We haven’t got time for faffing around,” he said on X.

World

NATO responds after Russian military jets ‘violate’ Estonian airspace

Published

2 hours ago

September 19, 2025

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NATO responds after Russian military jets 'violate' Estonian airspace

NATO says it has responded after Russian military jets “violated” Estonian airspace.

In a statement, the Estonian government said the incident involved three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets that flew near Vaindloo Island, in the Gulf of Finland, for a total of 12 minutes without permission.

A NATO spokesperson said the Russian jets “violated Estonian airspace” and “NATO responded immediately and intercepted the Russian aircraft”.

“This is yet another example of reckless Russian behaviour and NATO’s ability to respond.”

Foreign minister Margus Tsahkna said Russia had already violated Estonian airspace four times this year, “which is unacceptable in itself, but today’s violation, during which three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen”.

“Russia’s ever-increasing testing of borders and aggressiveness must be responded to by rapidly strengthening political and economic pressure,” he added.

Estonia is the third NATO country to report an incursion of its airspace by Russia in recent weeks: On Sunday, Romania said a drone breached its airspace during a Russian attack on neighbouring Ukraine.

Poland also reported an “unprecedented violation” of its airspace by more than a dozen Russian drones last week. Moscow denied responsibility for the incident.

The UK had previously summoned the Russian ambassador in London in response to the “utterly unacceptable” Romanian and Polish incursions.

The Russian defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. However, its jets routinely fly over the Baltic Sea, where its Baltic Fleet is based.

While incursions over Vaindloo Island, around 124 miles from Estonia’s capital Tallinn, by Russian aircraft are somewhat common, they do not usually last as long as Friday’s incident.

In response to the latest incident, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said that the UK “stands with our Estonian allies” after what she called “yet another reckless incursion into NATO airspace”.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also said: “We will respond to every provocation with determination while investing in a stronger Eastern flank.”

She added that “as threats escalate, so too will our pressure”, before calling on European leaders to approve a new round of sanctions which would ban Russian liquified natural gas.

Putin ‘testing the West’s resolve’: EU official

Europe’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also said the “violation of Estonia’s airspace by Russian military aircraft is an extremely dangerous provocation”.

She added that the EU “stands in full solidarity with Estonia”, and said: “We will continue to support our member states in strengthening their defences with European resources.

“Putin is testing the West’s resolve. We must not show weakness.”

Estonia’s government said in May that Russia had briefly sent a fighter jet into NATO airspace over the Baltic Sea during an attempt to stop a Russian-bound oil tanker thought to be part of a “shadow fleet” defying Western sanctions on Moscow.

It added that the Russian deputy ambassador was summoned and given a protest note.

MI6 chief: ‘No evidence’ Putin wants peace

The incursion comes after the head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service said there is “absolutely no evidence” that Vladimir Putin wants to negotiate peace in Ukraine.

MI6 chief Sir Richard Moore told a news conference on Friday that the Russian president was “stringing us along”.

“He seeks to impose his imperial will by all means at his disposal. But he cannot succeed,” Sir Richard said.

“Bluntly, Putin has bitten off more than he can chew. He thought he was going to win an easy victory. But he – and many others – underestimated the Ukrainians.”

Politics

Institutional demand grows with new crypto treasuries and SEC reforms: Finance Redefined

Published

2 hours ago

September 19, 2025

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Institutional demand grows with new crypto treasuries and SEC reforms: Finance Redefined

Public firms are raising hundreds of millions in capital for cryptocurrency strategies, reinforcing investor expectations of another historic altcoin market cycle.