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MLB Awards Week: Yankees’ Gerrit Cole, Padres’ Blake Snell win Cy Young
Welcome to MLB Awards Week.
As we look ahead to 2024 and await some of the offseason’s biggest free agent signings (where will you go, Shohei Ohtani?), we celebrate the best players in the game during the 2023 regular season.
The week started off with Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson unanimously winning American League Rookie of the Year honors and Corbin Carroll also winning unanimously in the National League. Next up, Henderson’s skipper, Brandon Hyde, took home AL Manager of the Year, with Skip Schumaker taking home the NL silverware.
On Wednesday, San Diego’s Blake Snell took home his second Cy Young Award — this time in the NL, after having previously won in the AL in 2018 — while New York’s Gerrit Cole unanimously won the AL’s Cy Young, the first in his career.
The awards schedule is as follows (all awards announced starting at 6 p.m. ET):
Monday: Jackie Robinson Rookies of the Year: Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson
Tuesday: Managers of the Year: Brandon Hyde, Skip Schumaker
Wednesday: Cy Young Awards: Blake Snell, Gerrit Cole
Thursday: MVP Awards
Below, we list the three finalists in each category, along with what you need to know before the results are announced and our picks to take home the hardware. We’ll update each section with news and analysis from Bradford Doolittle as the awards are handed out.
Jump to … :
Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
MVP: AL | NL
American League Cy Young
Winner: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Final tally: Cole, 210 (30 first-place votes); Sonny Gray, Twins 104; Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays 82; Kyle Bradish, Orioles 39; Luis Castillo, Mariners 23; Zach Eflin, Rays 19; Pablo Lopez, Twins 11; George Kirby, Mariners 8; Framber Valdez, Astros 6; Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays 4; Felix Bautista, Orioles 3; Chris Martin, Red Sox 1
Experts’ picks: Cole (13 votes) (unanimous choice)
Doolittle’s take: Gerrit Cole ranked seventh among active big league pitchers with 40.7 career bWAR following his 2023 campaign. The six pitchers ahead of him won a combined 12 Cy Young awards. The only pitcher ahead of Cole without a trophy was Boston’s Chris Sale, whose career has been more or less derailed by injury for the last half-decade. That made the argument that Cole was the best active pitcher without a Cy Young an easy call. Suffice to say, Cole is happy to no longer be a part of that conversation.
Timing is everything when it comes to awards because whether you win doesn’t just depend on what you do, but what everyone else does. Whether or not you see 2023 as Cole’s best season depends on what statistics and metrics you value. To me, he’s had better seasons, if only because he’s posted much higher strikeout rates in the past. His 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings was his lowest figure in six years. Yet Cole managed to lead the AL in ERA+ (165), ERA (2.63) and innings pitched (209). Despite allowing more balls in play than normal, he still led the league in fewest hits allowed per nine innings (6.8) while slashing 13 homers off his AL-high figure of 33 in 2022.
Now, at age 32 and four years into the nine-year contract he signed with the Yankees in 2020, Cole has not only been worth the $36 million per season investment so far, but his evolution this past season showed that there is plenty of reason to believe that he will continue to justify his massive salary. Cole remains a fixture in any team’s dream rotation, and while the 2023 Yankees had a lot of problems, he certainly wasn’t one of them. In fact, he is the sixth Yankee to win a Cy Young but the first to do so in a year in which the Yankees didn’t make the World Series. (The others: Bob Turley, 1958; Whitey Ford, 1961; Sparky Lyle, 1977; Ron Guidry, 1978; Roger Clemens, 2001).
At this point, Cole has 145 career wins, 40.7 bWAR, 2,152 career strikeouts and a league-adjusted ERA+ that’s 30 points better than average. He owns two ERA titles and has been an All-Star six times. And, now, he has a Cy Young trophy to put on his mantle. Of course, it’s too soon to start talking Cooperstown for Cole, but it’s not hard to see a path for him getting there. As the role of the starting pitcher has morphed over time, especially during Cole’s time in the majors, we’ll eventually have to take a stern look at what it means to be a Hall of Fame pitcher in a 21st century context. Cole is on his way to establishing the paradigm for what that looks like.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Cole, Yankees (153 AXE)
2. Gray, Twins (143)
3. (tie) Gausman, Blue Jays (134)
Bradish, Orioles (134)
5. Kirby, Mariners (133)
National League Cy Young
Winner: Blake Snell, San Diego Padres
Final tally: Snell, 204 (28 first-place votes); Logan Webb, Giants 86 (1); Zac Gallen, D-backs 68 (1); Spencer Strider, Braves 64; Justin Steele, Cubs 32; Zack Wheeler, Phillies 28; Kodai Senga, Mets 15; Corbin Burnes, Brewers 13
Experts’ picks: Snell (12 votes), Webb (1)
Doolittle’s take: There just wasn’t much that separated the top candidates in the NL this season. If anything, Snell’s win is an interesting snapshot of what voters ballot in modern-day Cy Young voting. That’s not to take anything away from his campaign, but you could have made a cogent argument for any of the top six on the AXE leaderboard and I might have been swayed.
In some ways, Snell has become the consummate ace, circa 2023. He prevented runs better than any other pitcher in the NL, which is why he won the award. He led the league with a 2.25 ERA, and his ERA+ was a robust 182. He can be maddening to watch because he just doesn’t give in to a hitter. That keeps his whiff rate elite (11.7 per nine innings) but also means a lot of walks (5.0) — though hitters needed those walks to get on base because Snell yielded an absurdly-low 5.8 hits per nine innings.
The cost of the way Snell works, however, is that he doesn’t often keep deep into games. He led the NL with 99 pitches thrown per game but ranked just 18th in innings pitched per start. Despite making 32 starts on the season, he ranked just 10th in innings pitched (180). He labors to keep runs off the board and while he requires more bullpen support than your typical ace, at his best, he is really hard to score against.
Snell is the 22nd pitcher to win multiple Cy Young awards. In some ways, he’s perhaps the most unlikely hurler to do so.
Now eight years into his career, this is just the second time Snell has compiled enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. But when he has, he has actually won those ERA titles both times … and won a Cy Young Award. Other than a lower win total, his 2023 season for the Padres is a virtual copy of his Cy Young season for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018. Other than those two standout seasons, Snell has never reached even 130 innings pitched despite a career ERA+ of 127. He’s a quality-over-quantity guy, a true avatar for the current description of a rotation ace.
As I mentioned earlier, good arguments could have been made for the others — especially the other finalists, Webb and Gallen, who both threw at least 30 more innings than Snell did. These days, innings may be the single most telltale detail of a starter’s season because a high total doesn’t just suggest durability and pitch efficiency, but also excellence in those innings — or else many of them would have been allotted to the bullpen. Still, when you keep runs off the board at a top-of-the-charts rate and take all your turns in the rotation as Snell did, it’s a hard combination to beat.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. (tie) Snell, Padres (142 AXE)
Webb, Giants (142)
3. Wheeler, Phillies (139)
4. Gallen, Diamondbacks (138)
5. (tie) Steele, Cubs (134)
Strider, Braves (134)
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Brandon Hyde, Baltimore Orioles
Final tally: Hyde 144 (27 first-place votes); Bruce Bochy, Rangers 61 (3); Kevin Cash, Rays 52; Rocco Baldelli, Twins 8; Dusty Baker, Astros 4; John Schneider, Blue Jays 1
Experts’ picks: Hyde (9 votes), Bochy (4)
Doolittle’s take: Anyone paying attention knew the Orioles were a franchise poised to bust out — but few thought they’d do so in a 100-plus win fashion, let alone this year, just two seasons removed from a 110-loss season. With the laid back Hyde setting the tone, the Baby Birds won more game than any Baltimore team since the days of Earl Weaver, Jim Palmer and Eddie Murray. The O’s added 18 wins to their 2022 win total (83) — which was in itself a major surprise.
While the manager awards are the hardest to contextualize with metrics at the individual level, Hyde stood out in all the areas that tend to attract observers to managerial excellence. Baltimore outperformed its run profile by 7.2 wins, second-largest positive gap in the majors. The Orioles beat their preseason over-under consensus by 23.5 wins, making them easily the most surprising team in baseball. And they went 30-16 in one-run games.
Beyond that, the Orioles were just fun, as Hyde and his staff continue to transition some of the game’s most promising young players into the big-league level. Who will forget the “Homer Hose” which was totally not at all exactly like a fraternity party beer bong?
Some managers are hired ostensibly to be a rebuild skipper, to hold down the fort as the losses pile up and the team builds its roster to contention worthiness. Often, those beleaguered managers are fired in favor of a big-name skipper as soon as the team starts contending. Anything can happen, of course, but it sure looks like Hyde and the Orioles are a fit poised for a long run together.
Hyde becomes the fourth Oriole to win AL Manager of the Year honors, joining Frank Robinson (1989), Davey Johnson (1997) and Buck Showalter (2014). Bochy finished a distant second, so he’ll have to be content with his fourth World Series trophy. Chances are he’s happy to do just that.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Hyde, Orioles (17.3)
2. A.J. Hinch, Tigers (8.9)
3. Cash, Rays (4.8)
4. Bochy, Rangers (0.4)
5. Scott Servais, Mariners (minus-0.3)
Note: EARL is a metric that looks at how a team’s winning percentage varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run record. While attributing these measures to managerial performance is presumptive, the metric does tend to track well with the annual balloting.
Manager of the Year must-reads:
How the Baltimore Orioles went from raw talent to really good
Why Bruce Bochy might be the greatest manager ever
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Skip Schumaker, Miami Marlins
Final tally: Schumaker, 72 (8 first-place votes); Craig Counsell, Brewers 51 (5); Brian Snitker, Braves 48 (8); Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks 42 (4); Dave Roberts, Dodgers 41 (4); David Bell, Reds 13 (1); David Ross, Cubs 3
Experts’ picks: Counsell (7 votes), Schumaker (6)
Doolittle’s take: First off, I have to point out that the voters overlooked a prime candidate in David Bell, who led a rookie-laden Reds team to a 20-win improvement. Whether he did a superior job to Schumacher, Counsell or Snitker is an open debate — but the latter two piloted teams that most observers felt would contend, and Snitker led a loaded Braves team that you could all but pencil into the playoffs. None of this is to knock the finalists, but more to give some props to the overlooked Bell.
The Marlins hired Schumker, a former Cardinals coach, last winter to succeed Don Mattingly. The first-year skipper was up for the challenge, leading Miami to a 15-win improvement, a winning record and a surprise wild-card slot. And so he out-paced Counsell in the voting and prevents the Cubs’ new manager from being honored for his work in leading his old team past his new team in the NL Central race. (Baseball gets confusing at times.)
The Marlins outperformed their run profile by an MLB-high 9.1 wins this season on the strength of a surreal 33-14 record in one-run games. Leading a team that lacked offensive firepower — Miami ranked 14th in park-adjusted run scoring — Schumaker guided his club through a surfeit of tight, low-scoring games, belying his lack of experience as the top guy in the dugout. It’s hard to argue against his place atop the balloting.
At 43, the future looks bright for Schumaker at a time when his team is again feeling around for the elusive stability that has always eluded the Marlins franchise. He’s the fourth Marlins pilot to win Manager of the Year Honors. The previous three — Jack McKeon (2003), Joe Girardi (2006) and Mattingly (2020) — led the Marlins for a combined total of four seasons after being honored.
Counsell, perhaps the game’s best manager, has still never won the award — he’s now finished second in the balloting four times. Snitker fell short in his bid to win his second; he, too, has finished fourth or better in the voting in each of the last six years.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Bell, Reds (8.5)
2. Snitker, Braves (6.6)
3. Schumacher, Marlins (6.2)
4. Dave Martinez, Nationals (5.7)
5. Lovullo, Diamondbacks (5.5)
Manager of the Year must-reads:
Why Cubs stole Craig Counsell from Brewers
How Craig Counsell reset the managerial salary landscape — maybe forever
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Final tally: Henderson, 150 (30 first-place votes); Tanner Bibee, Guardians 67; Triston Casas, Red Sox 25; Josh Jung, Rangers 16; Yainer Diaz, Astros 6; Masataka Yoshida, Red Sox 3; Edouard Julien, Twins 2; Anthony Volpe, Yankees 1
Experts’ picks: Henderson (13 votes) (unanimous choice)
Bradford Doolittle’s take: In many years, you are tempted to throw out the observation that the Rookie of the Year isn’t necessarily the best prospect in a season. This time around, the argument is more about whose long-term outlook is more sparkling — the AL’s Henderson or the NL’s Carroll. In terms of preseason consensus, both entered the season as the top prospect in their respective league, and, all these months later, they are no-brainer picks for the Rookie of the Year awards. It’s nice when things line up like that.
Henderson struggled at the plate early in the season. By the end of the season, he was a catalyst in the Orioles’ lineup, finishing with 28 homers. And he took over as Baltimore’s everyday shortstop, moving over from the hot corner in June. From there, he played at short more often but could flip back depending on the needs of the lineup. His defensive metrics were strong at both spots.
Moving forward, there is room for Henderson to get even better. He hit just .199 with a .595 OPS against lefties, carrying over the platoon split he displayed in the minors. That’s probably more of a concern for future Orioles opponents than it is for Henderson.
Henderson becomes the first Oriole to win AL Rookie of the Year honors since Cal Ripken Jr. in 1982. Last season, Adley Rutschman finished second in the voting behind Julio Rodriguez. With Jackson Holliday a popular pick as the current top prospect in the game, this foundation for the Orioles just keeps getting stronger and deeper.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Henderson, Diamondbacks (130 AXE)
2. Bibee, Guardians (118)
3. Zack Gelof, Athletics (113)
4. (tie) Royce Lewis, Twins (112)
Edouard Julien, Twins (112)
Yennier Cano, Orioles (112)
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference).
Rookie the Year must-reads:
How young Orioles rode their talent to the AL’s best record
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Final tally: Carroll, 150 (30 first-place votes); Kodai Senga, Mets 71; James Outman, Dodgers 20; Nolan Jones, Rockies 17; Matt McLain, Reds 5; Spencer Steer, Reds 4; Eury Perez, Marlins 1; Elly De La Cruz, Reds 1; Patrick Bailey, Giants 1
Experts’ picks: Carroll (13 votes) (unanimous choice)
Doolittle’s take: The NL’s 2023 rookie class was a strong one, but after April, there was little drama in the race for this award. Carroll rolled to a .910 OPS during the first month, though he was a bit overshadowed by James Outman‘s powerful first month for the Dodgers. After that, it was all Carroll, who displayed both the consistent and the spectacular on his way to a historic rookie campaign.
Carroll is the complete package at the plate. At 22, he manifested speed (54 steals, NL-high 10 triples), power (25 homers, .506 slugging), contact (.285 average) and discipline (57 walks and 13 HBPs). He hit at home (.902 OPS) and on the road (.843). He hit righties (.286) and lefties (.283), though he showed a lot more slug against righties. He became the first rookie to reach 25 homers and 50 steals in the same season.
Carroll was a beast in the early rounds of the postseason during Arizona’s unlikely run to the World Series, but he trailed off in the National League Championship Series and the Fall Classic. He’s not a finished product at 22, but who is? As with Henderson, that he still has weaknesses to iron out is a scary prospect for Arizona opponents. Carroll is the first Diamondbacks player to be named Rookie of the Year.
As mentioned, this was an awfully good rookie class in the NL. The Reds were a one-team ROY ballot on their own, with McLain, Elly de la Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer and Andrew Abbott all among the first-year standouts.
The Mets and Giants found their catchers of the future in 2023 (Francisco Alvarez and Patrick Bailey). The Brewers graduated a plethora of exciting outfielders (Sal Frelick, Joey Weimer, Garrett Mitchell). The Rockies’ dismal season was partially redeemed by the play and promise flashed by shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Senga was the best thing that happened in the Mets’ disappointing year.
Ahead of this impressive group was Carroll, who, along with Henderson, showed us that sometimes even the most hyped prospects turn out to live up to their advanced billing.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Carroll, Diamondbacks (137)
2. (tie) Senga, Mets (122)
Jones, Rockies (122)
4. Outman, Dodgers (120)
5. McLain, Reds (117)
Rookie of the Year must-reads:
American League MVP
Finalists:
• Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
• Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
• Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
Experts’ pick: Ohtani (13 votes) (unanimous choice)
What to know: We have written similar things about Ohtani for years now, but we’ve never seen anyone do what he did in 2023. At the plate, he led the AL with 44 homers, a .412 on-base percentage and a .654 slugging percentage. On the mound, he went 10-5 with 167 strikeouts and a 3.14 ERA. He earned 10.0 WAR at Baseball-Reference.com, 2.6 more than any other player in the AL, and 9.0 at Fangraphs, 2.7 more than anyone else. There is just no good argument for another player.
Still, even as Ohtani is a shoo-in for his second MVP trophy, the early end to his season and the Angels’ disappointing 73-89 record make this possibly anticlimactic to some voters. He threw his last pitch on Aug. 23 and made his last trip to the plate on Sept. 3. Not only did this quash Othani’s quest to post the best season in history, but it might have actually swayed some voters to turn to Seager, who missed a chunk of regular-season time as well. That might be especially true if the playoffs were considered, as Seager once again transmogrified into Playoff Seager when the games mattered most. — Bradford Doolittle
MVP must-reads:
Shohei Ohtani Tracker: Where will MLB’s top free agent land?
Is Corey Seager the new Mr. October?
National League MVP
Finalists:
• Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
• Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Experts’ picks: Acuna (12 votes), Betts (1)
What to know: The results from our experts’ picks suggest this will be a runaway victory for Acuna — and it probably will be — but that belies how close of a race this was between Acuna and Betts. In fWAR, they ended up tied at 8.3. In bWAR, Betts holds the smallest of edges at 8.3 to 8.2. In most seasons, that would lead to a hotly contested MVP debate, but Acuna had the flashier numbers: 41 home runs and 73 steals, becoming not just the fifth member of the 40/40 club, but blowing past that group to create the 40/70 club.
Besides leading the majors in stolen bases, Acuna led the NL in runs, hits, OBP, OPS and total bases. Despite those gaudy numbers and despite Acuna being the favorite for most of the season, Betts had arguably pulled ahead entering the final month, after hitting .455 with 11 home runs and 30 RBIs in August. Indeed, via FanGraphs, Betts led in WAR, 7.7 to 6.7, at the end of August. Betts, however, struggled in September, hitting .244 with one home run, while Acuna finished with a burst, hitting .340 with 11 home runs. He should join Freeman (2020), Chipper Jones (1999) and Dale Murphy (1982-83) as Braves players to win MVP honors since the franchise moved to Atlanta. — David Schoenfield
MVP must-reads: