Miami Marlins GM Kim Ng’s journey to the postseason
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Xuan Thai, ESPN Senior Writer
MIAMI — Down a brightly lit hallway that leads to a section of luxury suites at the Miami Marlins‘ stadium, where each room is filled with fans cheering on the home team, the door to the last suite is closed. Inside sits Kim Ng. No entourage, no buddies from college, no staff checking in. With a laptop, an iPad and a water bottle, the Marlins’ general manager sits with the lights off, watching the game alone.
It’s just before the MLB All-Star break, and second baseman Luis Arraez is chasing a .400 batting average, a feat not accomplished at the July break since 1999. It was Ng who traded for Arraez in her first full season without Derek Jeter in the Marlins’ front office. Already, there are whispers that the team could reach its first full-season postseason in 20 years.
I walk into the suite and attempt to break the ice, recounting a quote attributed to Ng’s mother about the “return on investment” of a University of Chicago degree and Ng’s decision to take an unpaid internship with an MLB team. I can relate. I tell her how my father once asked about the “cost-benefit analysis” of my decision to stop practicing law to take an unpaid internship at a cable news network. Aren’t Asian parents funny that way, I ask? She kindly laughs, perhaps more out of courtesy than comedy. I quickly pivot to baseball.
Ng’s journey to this place has been well chronicled — more than 30 years of management and executive experience that includes stints with MLB, the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, and the New York Yankees, with whom she won three World Series. She’s often included on those “most powerful women in sports” lists, and has grown accustomed to answering the inevitable questions about the “first” and “only” career labels — the first and only woman hired as general manager of a men’s major pro sports team in North America, the first East Asian American to do it in baseball.
It can be lonely being the first and only, and it’s clear those are things she doesn’t like to discuss. Less than three years into her first GM job, she’d much rather talk about baseball, the team and the “culture of winning” she’s trying to cultivate — to focus on anything other than her own story. It’s hard to break through. Over the course of several interviews this past regular season, Ng sticks to her talking points.
When we meet again three months later, with just six games left in the regular season, Ng is once again having a first-and-only moment. This time she’s in a Citi Field box for visiting general managers, and the Marlins are in close pursuit of a National League wild-card spot. Winning a series against the New York Mets would feel particularly fitting for the GM who grew up playing stickball on the streets of Queens. But it also could help Ng become the first and only female GM to lead a team to the postseason.
To be on the brink of a playoff spot is an accomplishment for any GM. For Ng, who is cautious by nature, this requires focus.
“It definitely hit me around the All-Star break when the team was sitting in a very good position,” she says. “Now we’re down to the last week and it’s starting to hit again, that you’re realizing that you’re just in a great position to do things that you’ve wanted to do for a really long time, and that is get to the postseason. And I’ve been there before with some of my other clubs, but certainly not in this chair. And that obviously makes this different.”
She says she’s tried to avoid feeling stress up to this point.
“Now,” she says, “I’m allowing myself to stress a little bit.”
This is a big admission. She knows that her reactions could affect the rest of the organization, and wants to keep things positive in the clubhouse.
“For a while,” she says, “I was playing the same playlist over and over, as I went into work every day and I was playing it in my suite each night during the game. Probably just to divert my attention from being so stressed.”
I ask, “What’s on this playlist?”
“Oh, yeah,” she says, laughing, “You’re not getting that out of me!”
After opening the second half of the season on an eight-game losing streak, the Marlins dipped below .500 in late August and appeared headed for another disappointing end. But series wins against the Washington Nationals, the Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies, plus a sweep of the Atlanta Braves, helped them finish 84-77 in the regular season. They clinched a wild-card spot with a win Saturday in Pittsburgh, where Ng joined the celebration on the field.
The Marlins are playoff-bound in a full season for the first time since 2003, when they went on to beat the New York Yankees in the World Series. (The Marlins reached the playoffs during the pandemic-shortened postseason in 2020.) They open play Tuesday at Philadelphia (8 p.m. ET on ESPN).
For Ng, who is 54, getting to this historic moment started in 1990, three years before the Marlins became an expansion team. She’d graduated from the University of Chicago and joined the Chicago White Sox as an intern. The White Sox hired her full-time the next year and by 1995 had promoted her to assistant director of baseball operations. When she became an assistant GM of the Yankees in 1998, she was the second youngest person ever in that role at the time.
It would take another two decades for her to land a GM job. Publicly, she remained upbeat when asked about that. She’s joked that she was always a bridesmaid. Today, she acknowledges that some of those GM interviews were more performative than purposeful.
I ask how she dealt with the frustration, how she kept going after a half dozen or so attempts to advance.
She says she’s been asked that question often, and that the answer has been, and will always be, “What am I supposed to do, quit?”
“You just keep trying,” she says. “And it was incredibly frustrating, there’s no doubt about that. But you just keep at it.”
Joe Torre, who worked with Ng during their time with the Yankees and Dodgers and was her boss in the MLB offices, is more blunt, saying some of those teams just “checked a box.”
“I just think that they just never wanted to pull the trigger. Nobody had the courage to do it,” Torre says. “There’d be teams that would call me about interviewing her. And I said, ‘It’s all well and good, but just don’t do it just to cover your ass. I mean, you have to be serious.'”
After years of disappointments for her, another former Yankee, Derek Jeter, made the move. As chief executive and a minority owner of the Marlins, Jeter was known as an advocate for diversity in baseball. Jeter, who declined an ESPN interview request, called Torre when the Marlins first considered Ng for the job.
“[Jeter] had called me about her, and the one thing he said to me because he knows, he said, ‘Just tell Kim I’m not checking a box here. I’m seriously interested in her ability to do this job,'” Torre recalls.
The Marlins named her GM in November 2020.
“When she came in, she inherited almost the entirety of the front office,” says longtime Marlins assistant GM Brian Chattin. “She kind of walked into already an organizational dynamic that had been operating for a few years, which is challenging to do, to come in the leadership role and inherit everyone.”
There were no wholesale firings of front-office staff during Ng’s first two seasons. Ng reported to Jeter, who reported to majority owner Bruce Sherman. The executives in place were largely Jeter’s team, and like Ng, several were former Yankees.
According to some with knowledge of her time with the Marlins, many of the people she worked with continued to look to Jeter for guidance or approval. Ng had one position she could fill in her first months — team travel director. A year later, in January 2022, she brought in her first big hire, Stan Conte, as senior director of medical services. They’d worked together in Los Angeles, and his job was to overhaul the Marlins’ medical unit.
When Ng first approached Conte, who resigned as the Dodgers’ vice president of medical services in 2015, he was living in Arizona with no intention of returning to baseball full-time. As Conte recalls it, he was less than enthusiastic when Ng called.
“I said, ‘No, I don’t want to help. I want to be retired,'” Conte recalls.
He says Ng wasn’t having it. Eventually, he relented.
“This is part of her personality,” Conte says. “She’s very politely in a lot of different ways, wears you down and you don’t even know it’s happening. She isn’t who you think she is, and she does that on purpose. She’s methodical, attentive and deliberate.”
When Jeter left the Marlins in February 2022, again there were no wholesale firings of front office staff, but positions did open up and Ng took the opportunity to make methodical and deliberate moves. To create what she calls “the culture of winning.”
Longtime manager and former Yankees great Don Mattingly left after the 2022 season. The opening allowed Ng to bring in first-time manager Skip Schumaker, who at the time was a bench coach for the St. Louis Cardinals. A major league player for 11 seasons, Schumaker won a World Series with the Cardinals in 2011.
“She definitely took a chance on me, that’s for sure, being a rookie manager. I’m grateful for that,” Schumaker says. “I think she did a really good job of acquiring a staff that also knows what winning looks like and holds people accountable.”
She brought in another assistant GM, Oz Ocampo, from the Houston Astros. Ocampo is known for his expertise in scouting international talent. He was instrumental in bringing in key players to help the Astros win three World Series.
During the interview process, Ocampo says, he needed to figure out whether the Marlins were as committed to winning as he was.
“The history of the Marlins was that they would win and then they would disband the team and then they would be followed by long periods of losing,” he says. “And I don’t tolerate losing very well, and neither does Kim and neither does Skip.”
She also took hold of key player decisions. After trading for Arraez before the start of the 2023 season, she was criticized by some observers for sacrificing too much talent to acquire the hitter. This season, Arraez chased .400 for half the season and has become a driving force on the team.
Before the Aug. 1 trade deadline, Ng knew what the team needed. Those in the room recall the day in awe.
“The trade deadline this year, unbelievable. I was in that room all day long from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. and everyone had different opinions, but she knew exactly what she wanted,” Conte says. “What she needed was runs, and she went out and scouted the right people and got them.”
She brought in infielders Josh Bell and Jake Burger. Perhaps just as important, she let go of those in the organization who were not on board with her vision. One of those was Gary Denbo, vice president of player development and an early Jeter hire.
But she also kept people who were put in place before her, and gave everyone a chance to prove themselves. Mel Stottlemyre Jr. has been the team’s pitching coach since 2018. He is one of the few coaches to stay through the changes.
Junior, as he is called by those who know him well, always suspected Ng would become a GM. His father — the late Mel Stottlemyre, a legendary pitcher and coach — told him she would some day.
“I remember when my pops was alive and still working with the Yankees,” Stottlemyre Jr. says. “He mentioned Ng’s name to me, and he talked about the toughness within her. And he finished his conversation and said that this woman was going to be a GM.
“And for him to say that, and then for me to go to work for her in what is her first job?” Stottlemyre Jr. points to goosebumps on his arm.
“Full circle,” I add. He nods. We let it sink in.
I bring up that moment with Ng. She pauses, too.
“When Mel told me the story, it surprised me because I definitely was not there making my mark,” she says. “That wasn’t my personality either, but it was certainly humbling to hear it for sure.”
Not yet three years into being a GM, Ng’s impact on baseball remains undeniable. At an MLB “Take the Field” event, a program designed to promote women working in baseball this past December, Ng gave the keynote address.
“Kim walks up and [my friends] are like, ‘Oh my gosh, that’s Kim! That’s Kim!'” says Jennifer Brann, a 25-year-old Marlins data analyst whose friends were eager for an introduction. “People see her as like a larger-than-life figure. I think that she’s more popular than some of the [players] sometimes.”
Ng is aware she’s a role model, which also kept her going through all those GM interviews over the years.
Over the course of our interviews, I’m almost apologetic for asking what it means to be a woman in baseball. It is the year 2023, after all. But Ng is a woman and Asian American, like me, and those facts still matter. Visibility matters.
“Given my understanding of where I was in the universe, and that a lot of people looked up to me, whether it was women in the industry or young women wanting to get in the industry,” she explains. “You just never wanted to just fade off into nowhere. That wasn’t really an option.”
When Burger joined the team in August, his younger sister, Ellie Burger, retweeted a post the third baseman shared in November 2020, celebrating Ng’s historic hire. He tweeted that his sister, who always wanted to be a GM, now saw it was possible for a woman to have the top job. I asked Ellie what Ng’s role as GM means to her.
“It was just kind of breathtaking and wow, it actually happened.” Ellie says. “It was at like 52 [years old] she got hired as GM, and you take a Theo Epstein, for example, who gets hired at 28. And it’s like, why is there this difference? This is long overdue, but finally there’s movement.”
Eve Rosenbaum, a former MLB intern who worked for Ng and is now an assistant GM with the Baltimore Orioles, says Ng has huge weight on her shoulders.
“I think once one team hired a woman and then everyone can sort of exhale and say, ‘OK. Oh look, it happens,'” Rosenbaum says. “And, ‘Oh, look, she’s doing a good job,’ and then everyone else feels more comfortable to be the next person to hire a woman to lead their baseball ops department.”
Still, Ng is somewhat surprised to hear that her colleagues describe her as collaborative, kind, deliberative and smart.
“That’s the external, but the internal is quite a bit different,” Ng says. “It’s interesting that that’s the way they perceive me.”
“What’s the internal?” I ask.
“Very competitive, doesn’t quit,” Ng says, reflecting on her journey, but adding she wonders whether she “should let my personality come out a little more.”
Ng can be guarded about what she says, and careful about how she presents. But the few who know her well say she is fiery, too.
“It would annoy me when writers would ask [if I wanted to be GM]. Because are you asking the guys that? If you’re not asking the guys that, then don’t ask me that,” Ng says, slightly agitated. She rarely gets animated during our interviews. “[Are you asking] because I shouldn’t have that ambition, or it would be odd if I did have that ambition?”
It’s early September, and on this day, I’m back in Ng’s box at the Marlins’ stadium, in the dark, watching what is undeniably a sloppy game. The Marlins are losing badly to the Dodgers. Suddenly, a ball boy mistakes a ball in fair play for a foul ball and costs the Marlins a run. I react in disbelief. Ng is silent.
“Do you wish the game was already over?” I ask.
“Yeah, like five innings ago,” she says wryly.
In nearly every interview with Ng and those in the organization, the phrase “culture of winning” appears. Shortly after sitting down next to her, she says she wants to revisit the “culture of winning” idea again. She doesn’t think she explained it very well the last time we spoke.
“The culture of winning means the process and the preparation,” Ng explains. She then goes into detail about playing smarter baseball. Surprisingly, she says this night’s 10-0 rout by the Dodgers is not disappointing.
“This is execution. And sometimes you just don’t execute,” she says. “Physical mistakes happen. But last year, we might’ve thrown to a wrong base. That is not acceptable. That’s a mental mistake. That’s the mistake you have to learn from.
“We’ve been much better this year. And those are the signs of improvement and building that foundation.”
Cranberry, Pa. – As Evgeni Malkin sits in an empty locker room at the Penguins practice facility, being interviewed for a story about his longtime teammate Sidney Crosby, the 39-year-old Russian center makes a point for emphasis.
“You see security here?” Malkin says, motioning to the Penguins’ detail, standing discreetly in the doorway. “It’s like, not my security. It’s Sidney Crosby’s security.”
Malkin’s résumé certainly warrants the celebrity treatment: Calder Trophy, Hart Trophy, two scoring titles and, of course, three Stanley Cups in a nine-year span that brought the Penguins back to glory.
But nobody on the Penguins — or perhaps the entire hockey world — can match Crosby’s star power. The captain’s reputation, let alone his list of on-ice accomplishments, is pristine. “You never heard one bad thing about Sidney Crosby,” said Kris Letang, the other member of Pittsburgh’s big three. “He’s perfect. He’s the perfect ambassador for the game.”
It’s why, ahead of Crosby’s 21st season in the NHL, there has been so much discourse about what his future might hold — and whether one of hockey’s most transcendent talents is wasting his final chapter holding on to what he once had in Pittsburgh.
Not only is Crosby’s production absurd (1,687 points in 1,352 career games and counting) but few players in hockey history have remained this consistent and this competitive as they enter their career twilight. While playing his sound two-way game, Crosby scored 91 points (33 goals, 58 assists) in 80 games this past season, leading the Penguins by 21 points. In an NHLPA poll released in April, Crosby was voted by his peers as the “most complete player” in the game — for the sixth straight season.
Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid at age 28 — a full decade younger than Crosby — is in the prime of his career. But he still defers to Crosby. McDavid advocated for Crosby to captain Team Canada at last February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, calling it a “no-brainer.”
“He hasn’t seemed to change at all,” McDavid said last fall. “He has been great year after year. It’s so impressive to see someone I grew up admiring still doing it to this day.”
Crosby has once again been able to play meaningful games on the international stage, which should include NHL players’ long-anticipated return to the Olympics this February, where he will likely captain Team Canada again.
The Penguins’ prognosis, however, is not as bright. Pittsburgh’s 16-year Stanley Cup playoffs streak ended in 2023, and the Penguins haven’t returned since. GM Kyle Dubas has been embarking on a rebuild, restocking a prospect pool that was essentially barren, with so many draft picks and young players traded away in order to chase championships. Pittsburgh’s opening night roster will feature five rookies, led by a first-time head coach, Dan Muse, who is just five years older than Crosby. They are loading up for the future.
“We’re in a period of transition, and our goal is, and the expectation is, we’re going to get to the point where we’re not just contenders again, but it’s gonna be contending on a consistent basis,” Muse said. “It’s not just get back into the playoffs; it’s to be a true contender, and then to stay there. And I think that’s been extremely clear to me from day one. And that message has been consistent in the time prior, until now.”
Nobody knows how long that plan will take — including the Penguins. It’s dictated by a series of factors, including development.
Meanwhile Crosby’s performance at 4 Nations (he tied McDavid for the team lead with five points in four games as Canada won the tournament) punctuated how exciting it is to see the 38-year-old on hockey’s most competitive stages still.
Some people around Crosby have tried to advocate that it’s a disservice to hockey to stick around for a rebuild with no end in sight. That includes Crosby’s longtime agent, Pat Brisson, who has said publicly that it’s his personal belief that Crosby needs to be playing playoff hockey.
For his part, Crosby maintains tunnel vision. That might sound like lip service for most people, but not Crosby, whose determination is fueled by details and an obsession for routine. He said his mindset every season is the same — an approach that prepares him to play in June. He maintains that he hasn’t seriously considered a trade to this point.
“I know that if all my energy isn’t towards what it needs to be, then I’m not giving myself the best chance for it to be successful,” Crosby said. “If it ever came to that point, I would discuss it, but I don’t feel like I’m there.”
Crosby’s two-year extension he signed summer 2024 kicks in this season. It’s extremely team friendly: $8.7 million average annual value, perhaps half of what he could receive on the open market. It’s also an extremely tradable contract — and all the cards belong to Crosby, who has a full no-movement clause. League sources believe the Penguins would never approach Crosby to waive it, out of deference to him. A trade would have to be Crosby driven. He would choose the time, and he would choose the destination. The Penguins would need to get compensation they felt is fair. And it all likely would go down quietly.
Or it might not happen at all. Crosby’s future is entirely in his hands. He wants to win again as badly as anyone — but in Pittsburgh. To this point in his career, he has demonstrated incredible loyalty to Pittsburgh, as well as his teammates. That’s especially true with Malkin and Letang; they are longest-tenured trio of teammates in major North American sports history
“He’s a very special person for me, because he’s probably my best friend here in Pittsburgh,” Malkin said. “First guy I met when I went to Pittsburgh, I go to dinner with Mario [Lemieux] and Sid. And after, we’re always together. I mean, he texts me all summer, you know? He texts me during season, we try to support each other. It’s not always perfect, you know? Sometimes, like, we need to understand each other. Some guys have problem with, like, games, with families, you know? Like — and he asks me, like — all the time like, ‘If you need anything, come to my house.'”
Malkin enters the final year of his contract and trade speculation is sure to ramp up around his name as well. As the Penguins opened camp, Malkin said he hopes it won’t be his last season in Pittsburgh, but admitted that would be dependent on both how he and the team play. Malkin scored 16 goals and 50 points in 68 games this past season. Letang is signed through 2028.
Another name to watch this season will be Bryan Rust, Crosby’s winger on the top line. Rust is signed through the next three seasons. The 33-year-old is happy in Pittsburgh and wants to stay. However, he doesn’t have trade protection. If the Penguins get a good enough offer — a package that could accelerate the rebuild — Rust could be traded away just like Jake Guentzel two years ago.
It’s not just friendships on the ice for Crosby that tie him to Pittsburgh: it’s relationships with the community.
“We have the children’s hospital visit that we do once a year with the entire team. There’s tons of cameras,” Letang said. “But he’s also going to go see patients in a different hospital and that’s completely off radar. And, you know, I was a witness because he asked me to come with him one year and see what he was doing.”
Youth hockey in Pittsburgh has exploded since Crosby’s arrival. The Little Penguins Learn to Play program Crosby launched in 2008 has introduced thousands of kids to the sport. Crosby and the city are in a long-term relationship that truly has benefitted them both.
“I still remember my first day going there, getting to the airport, coming down the escalators, and just it was packed,” Crosby said. “To have that kind of welcoming, and then just, right from arriving at the rink to living with Mario, just so many amazing first impressions, but then great memories since. It’s been a long time I’ve been there, and I couldn’t be more grateful that it worked out the way it has and that I was drafted there.”
Those close to Crosby say the distinction of wearing only one jersey is something he strongly considers. When Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar announced his retirement after this season, he noted playing his entire career in one city was a major point of pride for him.
However, there’s a counterpoint: Tom Brady. His reputation in New England is still as its all-time franchise legend. But after 20 years, he signed with the Buccaneers and was able to finish out his career with another championship there, too.
So, it comes down to the question: What motivates Crosby at this point?
“As you play, if you still have the passion, I think you find different things that motivate you,” Crosby said. “This year is obviously an Olympic year, so you know, that’s a big motivation. But as far as just in general, I think the motivation is just to be my best. You know, whatever that is, you know, regardless of age and expectations, all that. I always just try to be my best, and that’s enough for me.”
Malkin took it a step further.
“I think he mentally wants to show every year he can play 100%,” Malkin said. “And mentality, like, maybe one more cup, you know? We want to win together again. Because last cup, like, 10 years ago.”
In fact, it has only been eight years since the Penguins last won. But for an all-time great, that can feel like forever.
The SEC is eating up half the spots in the latest College Football Playoff top 12 projection — and Texas isn’t even taking up one of them.
The Longhorns are out following their loss to Florida in the Swamp. Penn State is out following an embarrassing loss at once-winless UCLA. Florida State is out after a second loss, this time to rival Miami.
Which means new teams can get in.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers came back into the conversation this week, in part because Penn State tumbled out and opened a spot. They ranked No. 12 in our projection. If the playoff were today, though, the committee’s No. 12 team would get knocked out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. If LSU is going to truly legitimize itself in the playoff race, it has to move up into a top-10 spot, which is the safest place to be. That’s not going to be easy, considering LSU has the 10th-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. The metrics give LSU the 10th-best chance in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (4.4%). Saturday’s game against South Carolina is critical because the next three opponents (No. 20 Vandy, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 8 Alabama) are ranked, and two of the three games are on the road. If LSU is going to be a factor in the postseason, it has to improve its running game and its big-play capabilities. The run game ranks 119th in the country with 104.8 yards per game, and LSU is No. 103 in plays over 20 yards (18).
The enigma: Missouri. We’ll learn more about the undefeated Tigers on Saturday when they host Alabama, but as of right now, their best wins are against Kansas and South Carolina. They’ve got the No. 3 running game in the country (292 yards per game), and lead the country in third-down conversion percentage (61.6%). Defensively, they’re fundamentally sound, leading the country with only 20 missed tackles. Can they maintain this success against a ranked opponent? The Tigers have the seventh-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. They’re about to enter their season-defining stretch, and they had a bye week to prepare for the Tide. After that, it’s back-to-back road trips to Auburn and Vandy. This month will determine how seriously to take Mizzou.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Missouri, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas
Big Ten
Spotlight: Michigan. The Wolverines have won three straight games since the Week 2 road loss at Oklahoma, and they’re growing along with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (22.5%) behind Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, but the latter two play each other Saturday. If Michigan can win at USC on Saturday, the picture begins to change, but ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 68.5% chance to win. If Michigan loses, it would be in a must-win situation against rival Ohio State in the regular-season finale to avoid a third loss and have a chance at an at-large bid. (That is assuming, of course, that Michigan doesn’t stumble along the way to sneaky good teams such as Washington and Maryland.) The Wolverines have one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and defenses heading into USC. Speaking of the Trojans …
The enigma: USC. Can the Trojans play four quarters against a ranked opponent? USC was undefeated heading into Illinois on Sept. 27, and couldn’t finish in a 34-32 loss. They get the Wolverines at home before heading to rival Notre Dame on Oct. 18. A win against Michigan would give USC a much-needed cushion, considering its two toughest remaining games — Notre Dame and Nov. 22 at Oregon — are on the road. USC’s defense has allowed at least 30 points in each of the past two games. The selection committee won’t penalize USC for a close road loss to a decent Illinois team, but it will be looking for statement wins, and right now the Trojans don’t have one.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Michigan
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The undefeated Yellow Jackets are one missed call from being in the “work to do” category below. Officials missed a critical offsides penalty Sept. 27 at Wake Forest, helping Georgia Tech drive down the field for a game-tying field goal before winning in overtime. The selection committee members will know this situation and consider it during their discussions. The Jackets are here because of their realistic chance to reach the ACC title game — not their résumé, which doesn’t include any wins against ranked opponents, and that might continue, as none of their remaining ACC opponents is currently ranked. Rival Georgia will be Georgia Tech’s best chance to impress the selection committee for an at-large bid if the Jackets don’t win the ACC. They’re good enough, though, to be undefeated heading into the Georgia game, which could make things interesting. Right now ESPN’s FPI projects the Jackets to win each remaining game except against Duke and Georgia. That’s why ESPN Analytics is showing Georgia Tech has the fourth-best chance (18.6%) in the league to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t lock up a spot as the ACC champ, the committee will have a significant debate about the Jackets as a two-loss ACC runner-up (loss in ACC title game and to Georgia) with no statement wins.
The enigma: Virginia. First the Cavaliers caught the nation’s attention with the Friday night spotlight win against Florida State, and then they eked out an overtime road win against Louisville. Now they’ve got the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (45.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. That’s because ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia to lose at Duke on Nov. 15, its toughest remaining game. Virginia is similar to Georgia Tech in that it’s unlikely to face any ranked conference opponents the rest of the season, but it doesn’t have a big-time nonconference opponent to help compensate for that. So if the Hoos don’t win the ACC, that Week 2 loss at NC State could come back to haunt them as a two-loss conference runner-up. Virginia fans should be cheering for FSU to run the table because the more the Noles win, the better that Sept. 26 win against them looks.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The undefeated Cougars are here because they’re on a collision course with Texas Tech to play for the Big 12 title. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game (43%) behind the Red Raiders (67.3%). This will get settled on the field before then, as those teams play each other Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. It’s currently the only game on the Cougars’ schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives them less than a 50% chance to win. Even if BYU loses that game, if it’s the Cougars’ only loss, they could face Texas Tech again in the league championship. BYU would lock up a spot with the Big 12 title, but two losses to the Red Raiders would likely knock them out as the conference runner-up. That depends, though, on how many Big 12 opponents are ranked by the selection committee.
The enigma: Arizona State. The close road loss to a much-improved Mississippi State team isn’t as bad as it might have seemed (though the Bulldogs have had a dose of reality with back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M). The Sun Devils have won three straight games since that Sept. 6 loss, knocking off Baylor and TCU to reposition themselves near the top of the Big 12 standings again. The question is whether the defending conference champs are good enough to repeat. The season-defining stretch begins Saturday at Utah, followed by home games against Texas Tech and Houston before heading to Iowa State ahead of the first CFP ranking Nov. 4. ESPN’s FPI projects ASU will lose three of those next four.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish have a case to be the selection committee’s top two-loss team, and they’re doing everything right to make the slow climb back into the conversation. No team in the country has a better chance to win out than Notre Dame (42.2%), according to ESPN Analytics. One of the biggest criticisms of the Irish in their back-to-back season-opening losses was the defense, which had allowed Texas A&M 41 points, but Notre Dame hasn’t allowed more than 13 in each of its past two wins. Notre Dame’s toughest remaining game will be on Oct. 18 against rival USC, but the Irish get the Trojans at home. If Notre Dame can finish 10-2 it won’t be a lock, but its playoff chances will skyrocket.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn the No. 12 seed at LSU’s expense. The undefeated (Memphis) Tigers have a win against a beleaguered Arkansas team that’s helping push their strength of record to No. 18 in the country — a slight edge over No. 19 South Florida, but all of the other Group of 5 contenders aren’t far behind. This will settle itself on the field, as Memphis plays South Florida on Oct. 25, Tulane on Nov. 7 and Navy on Nov. 27. Memphis still has the best chance to win the American (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Tigers also have the best chance of any Group of 5 team to reach the CFP (38.4%).
The enigma: UNLV. The Rebels are undefeated and have done something Penn State could not — beat UCLA. UNLV has the edge against Boise State following the Broncos’ second loss in Week 6, but those two teams will face each other Oct. 18 at Boise State. They’re also projected to meet again in the Mountain West Conference title game. Boise State (45.1%) still has the best chance to win the league, with UNLV (33.8%) a close second. According to ESPN Analytics, UNLV has the fifth-best chance to reach the CFP (9.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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