Latest CFP, bowl projections: Fallout from another wild weekend

Three weeks into the season, the college football landscape has seen its share of tumultuous results.

Two teams near the top of most preseason playoff projections — Notre Dame and Clemson — already have two losses, placing the Irish and Tigers on extremely shaky ground. The SEC looks as deep and strong as ever based on its nonconference record, meaning most of the in-league matchups will be up for grabs and have significant ramifications.

As in last season’s inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We’re here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20

Times and networks TBD.

Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 LSU
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Penn State

Bonagura: No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 10 Illinois at No. 7 Florida State

Bonagura: No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Illinois
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas A&M at No. 8 Oklahoma

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: After South Florida began the season with a pair of ranked wins, it came back to earth on Saturday with a 49-12 loss to Miami. Despite that loss, I kept the Bulls in the coveted No. 12 spot, which projects as the likely placement for the top-ranked Group of 5 team. The logic was this: losing to Miami — a team that has a strong case for a first-round bye — shouldn’t be reason to automatically fall out for a team ranked well below them. How the Bulls played, though, was concerning, and Tulane received strong consideration.

Iowa State, however, did drop from my playoff field after a narrow win against Arkansas State. The Cyclones are 4-0 but haven’t turned in a fully comprehensive win all year (at least against an FBS team).

Schlabach: The top two teams in my bracket, Ohio State and LSU, remain unchanged, but there was quite a bit of shuffling after that. Texas, Notre Dame, Iowa State and South Florida fell out of my 12-team bracket, while Texas A&M, Illinois, Utah and Tulane moved in.

Texas still might be one of the best teams by season’s end, but something seems off with the Longhorns’ offense at this point. Quarterback Arch Manning struggled throwing the ball again; at one point in Saturday’s 27-10 victory against UTEP, he was booed by the home crowd for misfiring on 10 straight incompletions. Not good. The Aggies are my ninth seed after knocking off Notre Dame 41-40 on the road. Quarterback Marcel Reed threw the winning touchdown to Nate Boerkircher with 13 seconds left to give Texas A&M its first road win over an AP Top 25 opponent since November 2014.

I’ll go with the Green Wave as the fifth conference championship winner, but I still believe USF will be a factor. Despite Saturday’s trouncing, the Bulls’ earlier upsets of Boise State and Florida are going to carry some weight in the CFP selection committee debates.

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Georgia

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami

CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Illinois vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: As things sit, Penn State vs. LSU and Georgia vs. Miami are the two hypothetical quarterfinal matchups that stand out. It has been an incredible nonconference run this year for the SEC. The depth in the conference feels stronger than ever — much stronger than in the Big Ten.

But what does depth matter if it doesn’t lead to postseason success? It’s possible to envision scenarios in which the SEC gets three teams through the quarterfinals — or none. That’s part of what makes this round so intriguing.

Schlabach: I bumped Penn State down a few spots, not as much for how the Nittany Lions have played this season but for who they’ve played. Penn State’s three victories have come against Nevada, Florida International and FCS program Villanova. My top four teams each have at least one significant victory on their résumés.

An Oregon-Georgia matchup in the Cotton Bowl would be a nice chess match between Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart and Ducks coach Dan Lanning, who was Smart’s former defensive coordinator. The Bulldogs will have to improve on defense over the next couple of months to be a legitimate CFP contender, but going on the road and winning 44-41 in overtime at Tennessee was impressive.

A Penn State-Miami game in the Orange Bowl would also be enticing (break out the camo!). It would feature two of the top quarterbacks available in next year’s NFL draft: Miami’s Carson Beck and Penn State’s Drew Allar.

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 LSU

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: Ohio State and Oregon still feel like the two best teams. Neither really had to break a sweat over the weekend, and that figures to be the case this week, too. Oregon vs. Oregon State sets up to be one of the most lopsided games in the history of the rivalry, while Ohio State is idle. Things get much more interesting Sept. 27, with Oregon traveling to Penn State and Ohio State visiting Washington.

Schlabach: I have the top four seeds advancing to the semifinals, and we all know the odds of that happening probably aren’t high. Miami has probably built the most impressive résumé to date after taking down Notre Dame 27-24 at home in its opener and dismantling USF on Saturday. The Hurricanes play in-state rivals Florida and Florida State the next two games.

I’m still going with Ohio State and LSU meeting in the national title game, although the Tigers’ season-opening victory at Clemson might not be as big as it seemed at the time. LSU wasn’t nearly as impressive in its past two wins over Louisiana Tech and Florida.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Troy vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. UConn
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Miami (Ohio)

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. James Madison
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Temple
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Louisiana Tech

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Liberty
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Army
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Maryland
Schlabach: BYU vs. Wisconsin

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Arkansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: NC State vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Maryland

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Tulane
Schlabach: SMU vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. BYU
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas Tech

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Utah State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss

Monday, Dec. 29

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Houston vs. Jacksonville State

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Alabama

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Cal

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Washington
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State