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MLB Awards Week: Verlander, Alcantara win Cy Young unanimously, picks and analysis for MVP
With the World Series in our rearview mirror — though the champion Astros are surely still reveling in their victory — the 2022 season is all but done, with one final piece left: awards!
The winners of MLB’s four major end-of-season awards — Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young Award and Most Valuable Player — are being announced starting at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network each day this week.
On Monday, Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez took home American League Rookie of the Year honors, while Atlanta’s Michael Harris II won in the National League. On Tuesday, Cleveland’s Terry Francona was named AL Manager of the Year, and the Mets’ Buck Showalter won for the NL. On Wednesday, 39-year-old Justin Verlander secured his third career Cy Young by winning the AL honors, while Sandy Alcantara made Marlins franchise history in the NL with his victory — marking the first time since 1968 that the Cy Young winners were each unanimous choices.
Unlike last year, when none of the MVP candidates reached the postseason, five of this year’s six finalists made the playoffs — with last year’s American League MVP, Shohei Ohtani, once again left out of October. Of the six, just one appeared in the Fall Classic (and won) — Yordan Alvarez. The AL’s MVP race is, unsurprisingly, led by none other than Aaron Judge, while the National League’s race features two teammates — Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado — vying for the honors.
We have everything you need to know for awards week — previewing each award in addition to our ESPN MLB experts’ predictions for who should take home the hardware. Be sure to check back throughout the week as this page is updated with results and analysis from Bradford Doolittle as each award is handed out.
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Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
MVP: AL | NL
American League Cy Young
Winner: Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Final tally: Verlander 210 (30 first-place votes); Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox 97; Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays 87; Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels 82; Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays 10; Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians 5; Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees 3; Gerrit Cole, Yankees 1; Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays 1.
Experts’ picks: Verlander (12 votes), Cease (1)
Doolittle’s take: Justin Verlander once seemed all but indestructible, maintaining every bit of his dominance as he advanced into his late 30s. Then, after one fateful start in the stunted 2020 season, Verlander proved to be human. Tommy John surgery, rehab and that lone outing over a two-season span followed. Time comes for us all and it had been a great run. Verlander would return, but dominant Verlander?
Yep. Still here — and he’s the fourth oldest player to win a Cy Young in MLB history. All Verlander did in his return from his long layoff was lead the AL in wins, ERA, ERA+, WHIP and hits allowed per nine innings. Just like that, it’s all back on the table — Verlander’s long-stated desire to pitch into his mid-40s, his quest to win 300 games, one more monster contract, all of it.
My one qualm with the voting came before Wednesday’s results were even announced, which is that I thought Ohtani should have been a finalist and Verlander’s top competitor for the award. Even if that had happened, I would still have leaned towards Verlander. As for Cease and Manoah — both young, emergent aces — they’ll have plenty of more shots at this honor.
I am a little shocked that it was unanimous. While I thought Verlander should win, the separation between him, Cease and Manoah wasn’t overwhelming. It’s a great achievement though and amazing that we have two unanimous Cy Youngs in one season.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Verlander (148)
2. Ohtani (146)
3. Cease (141)
4. Manoah (139)
5. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers (132)
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference).
Cy Young must-reads:
The fall of the starting pitcher — and one young ace who signifies hope for the future
From Tommy John to Cy Young form at 39? Inside Justin Verlander’s unprecedented return to dominance
National League Cy Young
Winner: Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
Final tally: Alcantara 210 (30 first-place votes); Max Fried, Atlanta Braves 72; Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers 66; Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies 48; Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks 45; Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants 30; Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers 20; Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres 7; Edwin Diaz, New York Mets 6; Kyle Wright, Atlanta Braves 3; Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants 2; Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals 1.
Experts’ picks: Alcantara (13 votes) (unanimous choice)
Doolittle’s take: No one did as much to remind baseball fans about the aura of a true, traditional workhorse ace this season than Alcantara. The metrics (8.0 bWAR) showed that, to be sure. Just as important was the buzz that was generated around the Marlins when Alcantara was slated to take the mound. Every outing had a big game feel to it as Marlins fans jumped on for the ride. More often than not, Alcantara delivered.
For all the deserved attention that Alcantara’s MLB-high 228 2/3 innings and six complete games generated, he was much more than a mere bulk pitcher. His 2.28 ERA ranked second in the NL and he finished fourth with 207 strikeouts. He was the perfect merger of quantity and quality.
As dominant as Alcantara was, he knew when to dial his effort up and down, often recording absurdly low pitch counts that got him quickly into the middle innings by simply throwing one quality strike after another. He was a throwback ace, the best pitcher in baseball this season and he deserved to be a unanimous pick. Let’s hope many other pitchers look to follow Alcantara’s example — and their teams let them do it.
Overall, there was a fairly large disconnect in the way the voting broke down in this category, as compared to the AXE leaderboard. AXE ranked Urias 11th in the NL Cy Young race, for example. So far, Cy Young is really the one category in which AXE didn’t see eye-to-eye with the voters. AXE has picked the right winner in both of the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young races, and has had little complaint with the lists of finalists. The NL Cy Young race is the exception.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Alcantara (156)
2. Nola (145)
(tie) Rodon (145)
4. Fried (144)
5. Max Scherzer, Mets (138)
Cy Young must-reads: How Julio Urias became the Dodgers’ ace — and maybe their closer
National League MVP
Finalists:
Experts’ picks: Goldschmidt (6 votes), Machado (4), Arenado (3)
What to know: Goldschmidt had been the heavy favorite after hitting .404/.471/.817 with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in May and remaining hot … at least until September, when he finally slumped, hitting .245 with two home runs. By then, however, the Cardinals were cruising to a division title and the Goldschmidt MVP storyline seemed etched in stone. But as our expert picks suggest, maybe it isn’t such a sure thing. Arenado (7.9) actually topped Goldschmidt (7.8) in bWAR, although the difference there is insignificant. Machado (7.4), meanwhile, led in FanGraphs WAR over Arenado’s 7.3 and Goldschmidt’s 7.1.
Goldschmidt was the best hitter in the NL, finishing at .317/.404/.578 with 35 home runs and 115 RBIs, so support for Arenado and Machado centers around the value their defense brings and those WAR totals that ended up pretty even. Goldschmidt led the NL in win probability added (Machado was second) while Arenado wasn’t in the top 10, but some of the other clutch numbers favor Arenado: He had a .988 OPS in high-leverage situations (Goldschmidt was at .895) and .864 in “late and close” situations (Goldschmidt was at .789).
MVP voters have certainly focused on a player’s WAR more and more over the past decade, so that should make this a split vote, but in a close race, it usually seems to go to the best hitter and that’s Goldschmidt. He has had two runner-up MVP finishes and one third place, but at 34 years old, I think he finally wins. — Schoenfield
MVP must-reads:
‘It’s my prime, baby’: Why Manny Machado is the best he’s ever been at age 30
American League MVP
Finalists:
Experts’ picks: Judge (12 votes), Ohtani (1)
What to know: You might have heard about this one. Ohtani went 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA and 219 strikeouts as a pitcher. As mentioned above, his 6.2 pitching bWAR was second in the AL and he’ll probably finish fourth in the Cy Young voting. As a hitter, he hit .273/.356/.519 with 34 home runs and 95 RBIs, good enough for the fifth-highest OPS in the AL. So you have a top-five pitcher and a top-five hitter. That is a superhero season.
And somehow not epic enough. Judge’s season was also historic: 62 home runs, 131 RBIs, 133 runs, .425 OBP, .686 slugging. He led the AL in all those categories, most in dominant fashion, doing it in a season when offense was at its lowest levels since 2015. It was the best offensive season since peak Barry Bonds, and if you don’t want to include Bonds, you have to go back to Mickey Mantle and Ted Williams in the 1950s. Judge finished with 10.6 bWAR compared to Ohtani’s pitching-plus-hitting total of 9.6. Of course, the way WAR is constructed, it gives Ohtani a positional penalty, since he was a DH. Maybe you can argue that isn’t fair, since Ohtani obviously plays another position — pitcher.
Still, we can add up the numbers and leave position out of this: Ohtani produced an estimated 31 runs more than an average hitter and saved 40 runs compared to an average pitcher, for a combined total of 71 runs; Judge produced an estimated 80 runs more than average hitter. That’s how good he was at the plate: Better than the combined value of Ohtani the pitcher and Ohtani the hitter. And that’s why Judge’s MVP award will be a deserving honor. — Schoenfield
MVP must-reads:
The road to 62: How Aaron Judge made home run history in 2022
Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani: How to compare two radically different MVP contenders
‘This guy, he’s different’: What it’s like to watch Yordan Alvarez up close
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
Final tally: Rodriguez 148 (29 first-place votes); Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles 68 (1); Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians 44; Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals 7; Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros 2; George Kirby, Mariners 1
Experts’ picks: Rodriguez (12 votes), Rutschman (1)
Doolittle’s take: Rookie classes are ultimately judged on what the first-timers do in addition to their inaugural seasons, as one year alone does not make a baseball career. But this year’s AL rookie class has already established itself as something special — and its winner, Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez, is already poised to become one of baseball’s biggest stars. No matter who took home this award, the allure of this group is likely to only grow over the years.
But 2022, by itself, was pretty special in its own right for AL rookies. Consider that Pena, who posted 4.8 bWAR and went on to win to win MVP honors in both the ALCS and the World Series for the champion Astros, was not a finalist. Kwan, whose 5.5 bWAR would have topped AL rookie classes in 59 of the 74 seasons since the Rookie of the Year vote was split between the leagues in 1949, finished third in the voting behind Rodriguez and super-rookie catcher Rutschman.
Rodriguez, whose 6.2. bWAR was the most by an AL rookie since Aaron Judge in 2017, is going to do special things in this game, and he was the clear-cut top choice in the balloting. That he was able to set himself apart in this particular rookie class is just another testament to how special a talent J-Rod already is.
One note on the voting: It’s possible that in 20 years, Witt turns out to be the best player in this class. He certainly has the raw ability to be. But based on what we saw in 2022, it’s a head-scratcher that he got a second-place vote and finished ahead of Pena.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Rodriguez (133.8)
2. Rutschman (128.4)
3. Kwan (124.6)
4. Pena (121.6)
5. Jhoan Duran, Minnesota Twins (117.1)
ROY must-reads: How Julio Rodriguez became the Mariners’ $470 million man
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves
Final tally: Harris 134 (22 first-place votes); Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves 103 (8); Brendan Donovan, Cardinals 22; Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks 4; Alexis Diaz, Cincinnati Reds 3; Nick Lodolo, Reds 2; Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates 2.
Experts’ picks: Harris (8 votes), Strider (5)
Doolittle’s take: Entering the last couple of weeks of the regular season, trying to come up with a coherent argument about whether the Braves’ star rookie hitter (Harris) or the Braves’ star rookie pitcher (Strider) was the most deserving contender for the award was a maddening exercise. Their metrics were just that close. Ultimately, Strider suffered an oblique injury and didn’t make a regular-season appearance after Sept. 18, when Atlanta was still locked in a torrid battle with the Mets for the NL East. That, as much as anything, might have been the decider.
Either way, it has seemed clear for months that one of the pair was set to become Atlanta’s second Rookie of the Year in five seasons, joining Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2018. Harris kind of came out of nowhere to record a 5.3 bWAR, easily the highest figure among NL rookies, but my AXE ratings still saw it as pretty close between the two. In the end, Harris was the whole package, hitting for average and power, flashing impact speed on offense and posting terrific metrics on defense at a premium position. The voters nailed it, and the Braves are set up nicely for years to come.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Harris (126.5)
2. Strider (124.7)
3. Donovan (117.6)
4. McCarthy (111.2)
5. Diaz (110.8)
ROY must-reads:
Michael Harris’ baseball life has always been in Braves Country
10 rookies about to take this year’s postseason by storm
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Terry Francona, Cleveland Guardians
Final tally: Francona 112 (17 first-place votes); Brandon Hyde, Baltimore Orioles, 79 (9); Scott Servais, Seattle Mariners 43 (1); Dusty Baker, Houston Astros 31 (3); Aaron Boone, New York Yankees 4; Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays 1
Experts’ picks: Hyde (6 votes), Francona (6), Baker (1)
Doolittle’s take: Talk about a tough choice. You have the skipper of the out-of-nowhere miracle team (Hyde) against the guy who led baseball’s youngest team to the ALDS (Francona) and the guy who has turned winning one-run games into an art form (Servais).
It would have been hard to complain about any of the three finalists winning it, so I certainly won’t complain about Francona, who might have done the best work of a Hall of Fame managerial career in 2022.
It’s not just that the Guardians were the youngest team in baseball, which they were. They just kept getting younger as the season went along as the team cut bait with veterans like Franmil Reyes while continuing to add young players from the system.
The ability to install rookies and win with them has long been a coveted manager trait and few skippers have done it as well as Francona did in 2022. Add to that the fact that Francona also guided an elite bullpen and was part of the Go-Go Guardians developing a style of baseball that relied on speed, defense and contact hitting — some that run counter to trends in the current game — and it was a masterpiece.
So no complaints, but neither would there have been had Hyde or Servais come out on top.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Hyde (13.42)
2. Francona (9.70)
3. Baker (6.45)
4. Servais (4.85)
5. Cash (minus-0.61)
Note: EARL is a metric that looks at how a team’s winning percentage varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run record. While attributing these measures to managerial performance is presumptive, the metric does tend to track well with the annual balloting.
MOY must-reads:
How the Guardians turned the AL Central race into a one-team sprint
How the Orioles — yes, the Baltimore Orioles — became the hottest team in MLB
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Buck Showalter, New York Mets
Final tally: Showalter 77 (8); Dave Roberts, Los Angeles Dodgers 57 (8); Brian Snitker, Atlanta Braves 55 (7); Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals 44 (5); Rob Thomson, Philadelphia Phillies 36 (2); Bob Melvin, San Diego Padres 1.
Experts’ picks: Showalter (6 votes), Snitker (5), Roberts (1), Thomson (1)
Doolittle’s take: The National League didn’t have much in the way of Cinderella-esque emergent teams like the Orioles and Mariners in the American League, so we ended up with a race between skippers from preseason favorites.
My guy would have been Marmol, who faced a major challenge in balancing the need to win now with the unusual narrative aspects of the Cardinals’ year and ended up leading the Redbirds to a storybook regular season. St. Louis didn’t win it all, but no one went away unhappy with the way the campaign played out for Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina and, most of all, Albert Pujols. Alas, Marmol wasn’t a finalist in the balloting.
That aside, of the three finalists, all leaders of high-powered, preseason favorites, I thought Showalter stood out even if the Mets faded toward the end of the season. Yes, the Mets had a massive payroll but the task of meshing so many veteran, high-salaried stars into a cohesive roster is not an easy one and Showalter was the perfect guy for the job. He played a big part in bringing it all into focus.
Beyond his work in unifying the clubhouse, Showalter also faced challenges with a star-laden pitching staff. Yes, the rotation was headed by generational stars Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, but those two combined for 209 innings, or around one rotation slot in terms of workload. Yes, the Mets had the game’s best reliever in Edwin Diaz but not only did Showalter help navigate an uncertain middle relief staff to get him the ball with the lead, but he avoided overusing Diaz, which had to be a temptation.
In a time when managers are too often viewed as glorified media relations personnel and appendages of the front office, we saw a lot of evidence in 2022 that traditional managerial acuity still matters. Few typified that reality more than Showalter.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Showalter (7.72)
2. Marmol (5.13)
3. Snitker (4.09)
4. Roberts (3.01)
5. Lovullo (1.49)
MOY must-reads: ‘The golden age of Dodger baseball’? L.A. sets franchise wins record — again — but has just one ring