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INSTEAD OF A bank vault or a Brink’s truck, the betting slips from what could be the largest payout in sports gambling history are being guarded by nothing more than an old, tattered Houston Astros backpack. On a recent Tuesday afternoon in Houston, with the MLB playoffs about to begin, the faded blue nylon bag — its contents worth potentially millions — sits on the floor of the massive Gallery Furniture showroom, just within arm’s reach of its owner: the Houston furniture magnate and Astros superfan Jim McIngvale, better known around these parts and in the world of high-stakes sports gambling as “Mattress Mack.”

Lanky and seemingly equal parts ears, teeth, cowboy boots and charisma, McIngvale has been a household name in Houston for decades thanks to his wacky TV commercials and his Ross Perot delivery. “I just have what you might call a high tolerance for risk,” McIngvale says. “Damon Runyon said ‘All horse players die broke.’ And I know I shouldn’t bet with my heart, but it’s hard not to and it’s a lot more fun.” In 2017, McIngvale gained national notoriety for opening his doors and sheltering hundreds of victims of Hurricane Harvey for weeks inside his furniture showroom, something he also did after Hurricane Katrina years prior. After the storm, as the Astros continued their historic run to the 2017 World Series, McIngvale was in the news yet again, this time for an only-in-Texas furniture promotion through which anyone who bought a mattress from Gallery Furniture would get it for free if the Astros won it all.

In a rather ingenious move at the dawn of the legal sports gambling era, McIngvale hedged his potential business losses by placing seven-figure bets on the Astros. Good thing. He ended up having to refund more than $10 million worth of mattresses. “We take large wagers from sports bettors of all stripes, but I’m not sure anyone does it with as much panache as Mack,” says Ken Fuchs, head of sports at Caesars Entertainment. “That’s why I bring in [Hall of Fame baseball owner and promoter] Bill Veeck as the only comparison with Mack. He’s never afraid to make a statement or take a risk and, clearly, he has fun doing it.”

By the end of the 2017 MLB season, McIngvale was such a Houston institution the Astros brought him along as one of their own for the trip to the White House. “We invited Mack because he had become such an example of everything the Astros and Houston had been through together in that year,” says Anita Sehgal, the Astros’ senior vice president of marketing and communications. “Houstonians have watched him build his life in Houston while giving back every step of the way. That’s why they have a special love for him. For Mack it’s not about words, it’s about action.”

In more ways than one.

Now, five years later, with the Astros poised to face the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series, McIngvale’s original furniture promotion — and the epic sports bets behind it — have quintupled in size to what is about to be a record-breaking $75 million World Series squeeze play. By the start of the Fall Classic on Friday, McIngvale says he’ll have around $10 million (at an average 7.5-to-1 odds) riding on the Astros. In other words, the exact kind of nerve-frying, death-defying stakes Mattress Mack, 71, has been drawing aces his whole life.

On the eve of the MLB postseason, we spent time with McIngvale for a look behind the scenes at the remarkable life and times of Mattress Mack and the moments during the past four decades that led him to take such a big swing on his hometown team.

“I just get bored to death with stability, which is why I guess I like all of these big bets,” he shrugs, even as he faces the culmination of all his business success, sports-gambling excess and Astros madness. “I thrive on chaos.”

If that’s true, with an entire furniture fortune now riding on the Astros, McIngvale is about to have the time of his life.

IT’S JUST AFTER noon inside the bustling, 110,000-square-foot original Gallery Furniture showroom on the north side of Houston, and McIngvale is where he always is and where he hopes to remain “until I die” — behind the front desk, noshing on an orange and taking customer service calls. While McIngvale, who is worth an estimated $300 million, checks on the delivery status of a bedroom set, visitors wander through the property, a mesmerizing wonderland of furniture, kitsch, memorabilia and community outreach.

The football field-sized warehouse out back is stuffed with mattresses in anticipation of another Astros title. On the north side of the building is a daycare funded by McIngvale. To the south, a trade school. (The saying around here is that since the hurricane this location has become a community center disguised as a furniture showroom.) One 360-degree panorama near the entrance includes, I swear, the customized Texas A&M presidential motor scooter that belonged to George H.W. Bush, four stuffed raccoons playing poker on top of a bar, a glass showcase overflowing with humanitarian awards, a 30-foot nutcracker doll next to a similarly ginormous Christmas tree, a series of paintings of steers relaxing on sofas, a framed excerpt from Thomas Paine’s 1776 “Common Sense,” a 5-foot wooden fish carved from a tree stump and painted like the Texas flag, a six-piece leather, reclining living room set (last one, as is — no returns), a giant slab from a 513-year-old African Bubinga tree, a signed poster from the Chuck Norris movie “Sidekicks” and an ornately framed oil painting portrait of McIngvale’s north star, his father, George Sr.

In the 1960s Jim was a prep football standout at Bishop Lynch High School in Dallas, a school his father helped found. (Jim claims his junior high coach, Bob Barrett, was among the group of officers who arrested Lee Harvey Oswald at the Texas Theatre.) A few years later when a former high school teammate of McIngvale’s didn’t have the money or the means to get back to college, George McIngvale put him in his car and drove him 2,000 miles back to Dartmouth. “My father was a giver, even when he didn’t have money to give, so he died without a lot, but he died very happy,” McIngvale says. “And that spontaneity, that taking care of people, that, maybe not a lot of thinking, but more just ‘ready-fire-aim’ approach to life? That’s where it comes from.”

EVEN THOUGH McINGVALE was a member of the legendary 1969 and 1970 Texas Longhorns football teams that won 30 straight games and back-to-back national titles, you can tell the overall importance of this experience in his life by where the Longhorns team photo is displayed inside Gallery Furniture: right above the customer restrooms. “I was a great football player, I just had two small problems,” McIngvale says. “I was too small and I was too slow.” Spending all that time on the sidelines, however, McIngvale became close with another major influence in his life, Frank Medina, the Longhorns trainer from 1945 to 1978. “He was all of 4-foot-10, but he was a fireball,” McIngvale says. “He’d get right up in your face and scream ‘What are you saving it for, son? Is that all you got?’ And he taught me this line: ‘Ask, take and give no quarter.’ In other words: Never give up and never ask for anything. Do it yourself.”

Before he started selling furniture, McIngvale was a “broke failure” living at home in Dallas, trying to keep the lights on at his first business, a fitness center. Around 1978, hoping to sell some gym memberships, he attended “Muhammad Ali Appreciation Day” at Market Hall in Dallas. Late in Ali’s career, in between fights, the three-time heavyweight champ cashed in on his popularity with barnstorming-type “exhibitions” where he’d spar with local heavyweights and sign autographs for fans. After quickly dispatching a handful of local heavyweight hopefuls, Ali, always the showman, grabbed the ring announcer’s microphone and taunted the crowd: “Any y’all want to fight?”

Only one hand went up.

It was McIngvale’s.

“OK, come on up here then, Great White Hope,” Ali yelled.

Inside the ring, as a trainer laced up McIngvale’s gloves, Ali leaned in and told McIngvale the plan for the spectacle. After sparring for a round, Ali would drop his guard and McIngvale would seemingly knock his lights out, then stand over Ali and taunt the fallen champ. McIngvale did exactly as Ali told him, and when the crowd turned on McIngvale, Ali miraculously sprang back to life, grabbed the mic and confessed to choreographing the entire stunt.

And not a second too soon.

“People in the crowd were already asking my friends, ‘Hey, are you with him?’ And they were like, ‘Uh, no, no, we’re not with him,'” McIngvale says.

McIngvale’s wife, Linda, was with him at the event. “It just showed what a great personality Ali had, and of course Mack loved that side of Ali. [Ali] was obviously the greatest boxer of all time, but what Mack also loved was he was also the greatest promoter of all time, too.”

Says McIngvale, “I just seem to stumble into these things. I’m not shy, and I have a high tolerance for risk. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn’t.

“It’s like when you lose a million-dollar bet, you just say, ‘What’s next?’ That’s all you can do. But I do know we sold a lot of gym memberships that day.”

AFTER GALLERY FURNITURE opened in 1981, a Texas oil bust forced Houstonians to tighten their belts and threatened to bankrupt McIngvale. Down to his last $10,000, McIngvale spent half on inventory and half on a TV commercial shoot. After three hours in front of the camera, though, he had nothing on tape he could use. “I was stuttering and stammering and down to my last take,” McIngvale says. “I had the day’s receipts in my back pocket, so I pulled those out and waved them around and said ‘Gallery Furniture will save you … MONEEEY!’ The producer said, ‘That’s it, that’s the commercial.’ And it stuck.” The over-the-top spots started airing late at night on Channel 39 in Texas, where McIngvale enjoyed a long association with Houston Wrestling and WWE Hall of Fame announcer Paul Boesch.

Mattress Mack was born.

Combined with McIngvale’s longtime association with the Astros, it’s a character who immediately draws comparisons to legendary MLB owner and promoter Bill Veeck, the man who, in 1979, gave us Disco Demolition Night. “Someone who bets big and bets with his heart, with a colorful personality,” Fuchs says. “Like Veeck, Mack thinks about ideas in such a large way, but he’s able to act on them and execute them.”

McIngvale’s catch phrase has been flooding the Houston airwaves nonstop since the 1980s. (He has screamed it while wearing a mattress, while nearly being trampled by livestock, while fighting Chuck Norris, tumbling with Olympians, arm wrestling comedian Joe Piscopo and posing next to pretty much every B-level celeb in Texas.) Mattress Mack has become a part of the community’s subconscious. McIngvale says he recently walked past an autistic teenager shopping for furniture with his parents, and the normally nonverbal child said, “Hiya, Mack!” His mother burst into tears.

“I’ve always been bombastic and wanted to be a big promoter like W.C. Fields or Bill Veeck,” McIngvale says. “That’s what I’ve always dreamed of being, and now I’m getting to live it out.”

McINGVALE’S APPETITE FOR sports gambling started in 2006 when he says he won $250,000 on Texas and Vince Young in the national championship game. But it was two die-hard Peyton Manning fans who helped him develop the idea to hedge his furniture promos with massive sports wagers. Well, kind of. In 2014, before the Broncos played the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII, two employees convinced McIngvale there was no way on Earth that their boy Peyton would ever lose to the lowly Seahawks. So — ready, fire, aim! — McIngvale announced that if the Seahawks somehow beat Manning everyone would get their furniture for free. “I didn’t hedge anything on this at all,” he says, “and it really got away from me in the last three or four days.”

By Saturday, Gallery Furniture had sold every mattress, every sofa, every ottoman and every last lamp in stock. “The damnedest promotion we ever had,” McIngvale says. “On Saturday night at 7 o’clock I’m standing on top of the desk at the front of the store screaming at the people that they have to go home now, we have no more furniture. It. Was. Unbelievable. We sold every last stick of furniture we had. Never happened in our history before.”

McIngvale knew he was on to something. He was ecstatic. Right up until he did the math just before kickoff.

“I hadn’t told my wife or anyone else about this, but we were on the hook for a whole lot if Seattle won,” he says.

Far too nervous to watch the game, McIngvale ran on the treadmill in the exercise room at the back of his warehouse for three hours. (He doesn’t have a TV at home.) When the two Peyton Manning fans were nowhere to be found, McIngvale knew he was screwed. All he could do then was wait for the postgame call every gambler dreads. “The phone rang at the end of the game, I picked it up and I said, ‘Who won?’ and my wife says ‘Seattle won you big dummy, how much money did we lose?’ And I just spit it out: ‘Nine million. We’re out nine million,'” McIngvale recalls. (McIngvale has run this story through the Mattress Mack Filter in recent years. An ESPN story from 2014 says he actually lost $7 million.) “Let’s just say, yeah, she wasn’t a happy camper. That’s when I realized I needed to find a way to hedge this stuff somehow.”

In 2017, a day after Hurricane Harvey decimated Houston, Gallery Furniture inventory control manager Anthony Lebedzinski arrived at the showroom where, he says, McIngvale was already handing out keys to the company’s fleet of delivery trucks to any able-bodied adult willing to help rescue people from the floodwaters. Later that day while trying to reach a trapped family, Lebedzinski nearly drowned when he was sucked into the filthy floodwater by an open manhole cover. “He was halfway to Galveston Bay before he saved himself,” McIngvale says. Daring rescues like Lebedzinski’s continued for days until there were hundreds of families not just sheltering but living inside McIngvale’s pristine showroom. “Mack’s always first, first in the water, first to open his doors, first to help,” says Houston schoolteacher and Astros fan Deirdre Ricketts. “All Houstonians have big hearts, but Mack’s might be the biggest.”

“People asked, ‘How can you let them sleep on the brand-new furniture like that?'” McIngvale says. “What am I going to do, let them all drown? So that was it. To me, it was nothing. It was the right thing to do. And I wanted my kids to see me doing that. At the end of the day we’re all going to be judged by our creator, and he isn’t going to ask how much money we made. Instead, he or she will ask us how much of a difference did you make?”

McIngvale’s immediate, large-scale, open-arms policy set the tone and created a path forward in the terrifying, chaotic and critical early days of the city’s recovery. It was the best of Houston, Sehgal says, the way people took McIngvale’s example and ran with it, coming together across the board to help each other.

One of the temporary residents pulled out of the floodwaters and fed, clothed and sheltered at Gallery Furniture for several days was Khanh Doan, 31. At a recent home Astros game, Doan finally got to thank McIngvale in person.

For saving his life?

“No,” he says.

“For saving my life, my mother’s life and my father’s life.”

During the past decade McIngvale has also helped raise $12 million for tsunami relief, he delivered 25,000 care packages to seniors during the COVID pandemic and he opened his showroom again during last year’s winter storm and power outages. In August when the team from nearby Pearland, Texas, made it to the Little League World Series, McIngvale and the Astros raised money to send the players’ families to Williamsport, Pennsylvania.

“Mack’s always the first to step up for anything that’s impacting Houston,” Sehgal says. “Big or small.”

IF YOU REALLY want to catch a glimpse of McIngvale’s electric Mattress Mack alter ego, don’t ask about Texas football, his Elvis memorabilia collection or even his weakness for racehorses and Ferraris. Instead, ask about his life’s masterpiece: The Promotion. By combining all of his passions — furniture sales, community, sports, gambling and Texas-sized spectacle — McIngvale has achieved a kind of gambler’s nirvana by finding a way to bet millions upon millions on his beloved Astros and other teams without ever really “losing” a cent, all while pushing his brand equity through the roof.

Here’s how it works: It starts with picking underdogs and getting favorable odds. Because, without the futures aspect, none of the math works. For example, this season McIngvale’s initial $3 million bet at Caesars for the Astros to win it all at +1000 covered him for the first $30 million in potential furniture refunds. Next, McIngvale makes the grand announcement, which is some variation of: Spend $3,000 or more on a mattress and accept delivery within 24 hours, and if the Astros go on to win it all, your purchase is free. Then, the more furniture he sells through the promotion, the more McIngvale bets on the Astros, whose line has moved from 10-to-1 to 8-to-1 to 4-to-1 to their current status as World Series favorites.

Fuchs says McIngvale’s idea to use sports gambling as a business hedge is a different angle than anyone has ever seen before. “He’s laying off the risk with these wagers, covering one big loss with one big win,” adds Patrick Everson, senior reporter for Vegas Insider. “It’s kind of a genius business move, really. And, clearly, he’s got the money to lose. He’s not losing any sleep at all.”

What McIngvale really understands better than gambling, furniture or promotion, though, is human nature. Even the slightest chance to get something for free is practically irresistible to most consumers, especially those already on the fence about needing a new mattress. The more sales increase, the more McIngvale gets to do the thing he loves most: bask in the attention and fly off to Vegas to place ridiculously large bets, sometimes with a briefcase full of cash. “It’s just like in the movies, the briefcase gets its own seat on the plane,” says Gallery’s Gerald McNeil, a former Pro Bowl returner with the Browns in the 1980s who now works with McIngvale. After the first few spur-of-the-moment trips to Vegas with McIngvale, McNeil started keeping a change of clothes in his car at work. “I guess it’s my job to save the suitcase if the plane goes down,” McNeil says.

Sports gambling is still illegal in Texas, so when he doesn’t feel like jetting to Vegas, McIngvale will simply drive roughly 125 miles east until the betting app on his phone pings to let him know he’s in Louisiana and free to drop another million or five. On the eve of the past Super Bowl, outside a rest stop in Vinton, Louisiana (and on live TV, of course — this is Mattress Mack after all), McIngvale dropped $5 million on the Cincinnati Bengals, the largest Super Bowl bet in history. And this summer, as the Astros caught fire and the promotion exploded — until July, McIngvale was refunding double the customer’s money on mattresses and furniture — McIngvale flew to sportsbooks in Iowa and Vegas to bet another $4 million in a single night.

“I sweat these games because of these promotions and it is so much anxiety,” McIngvale’s wife, Linda, says. “I don’t know how he doesn’t get anxious about it. I think he does and pretends like he doesn’t.”

“My wife says I have a gambling problem,” McIngvale says. “I say I have a promotion problem.”

They’re both probably right.

If the chosen team happens to win, great, McIngvale’s losses are covered, thousands of ecstatic customers blab for years to everyone they know about that time they won the lottery at Gallery Furniture, and many of them turn around and spend the refund on more furniture.

After the Astros won it all in 2017, McIngvale got to live out every gambler’s dream, flying home from Vegas with that raggedy old Astros backpack of his stuffed with almost 50 pounds of the sportsbooks’ money.

If the team loses, well, that’s when McIngvale really wins. For example, last season McIngvale “lost” his $3.35 million wager when the Braves beat the Astros in the World Series. McIngvale pulled out all the stops for that bet, trying to appeal to a higher power by packing a suite at Minute Maid Park with nuns from the Dominican Sisters of Mary Immaculate Province. The sisters became known as the “Rally Nuns” until a 7-0 loss at home to the Braves in a godforsaken Game 6.

It wasn’t quite as soul-shattering a defeat as you’d imagine for McIngvale, though. The odds on that bet covered McIngvale for more than $35 million in freebies. So, assuming the promotion brought in around $30 million in sales (during the fall, no less, which is typically a slow time in the furniture biz), at even a 40% markup, minus his wager, McIngvale confirms that he still came away with a cool profit, probably somewhere close to $9 million. And that’s not even counting the value of all the free advertising, promotion and goodwill that McIngvale says is “exponential,” or the fact that, according to TurboTax, itemized gambling losses can be tax deductible.

“Oh, it’s definitely a win-win,” McIngvale says. “These promotions just bring the brand to life and give us a ton of brand equity that we wouldn’t have otherwise. The customers love it so they’re totally engaged and talk about it for years. Because it runs all season long it probably ups the number of people following the Astros, too, because now they have a real vested interest in the team.”

WHEN McINGVALE WAS a panelist at a gambling conference and trade show in New Jersey this summer, Everson says he heard minor grumblings from bettors about the whole Mattress Mack phenomenon. Mainly, that it’s unfair how McIngvale is allowed to place multimillion-dollar bets while sportsbooks strictly limit what the average person can wager. Besides sounding a lot like airline passengers who blame the awful conditions in economy on the people flying first class, this really is an issue with sportsbooks policy, not McIngvale. One sports gambling industry insider said the reason sportsbooks love McIngvale so much and allow him to keep betting bigger and bigger amounts is all the free promotion they get out of it, and the fact that, well, he’s kinda terrible at it.

During a brutal losing streak in 2022, McIngvale dropped $15.4 million on the Patriots, the Titans, the Bengals and Alabama. He was about to be out another cool $5.5 million in the NCAA tournament until Kansas came back from 16 down at the half to defeat North Carolina. Just before the tip, McIngvale sneaked off to Louisiana to bet another $1 million on Kansas at -190. The wager broke all his rules about taking only underdogs and not gambling with his heart. “Stupid bet,” he says. “I see all these kids when I go to Vegas and it’s the weirdest thing because they all know me from gambling. People think I’m a great handicapper but I’m really not.”

After March Madness, McIngvale brought Jayhawks coach Bill Self into the store for the first day of the $14 million giveaway party. “First customers, a big family, comes up to say thanks to Self and I asked them, ‘How much did y’all win?'” McIngvale says, placing his hand on his forehead. “Sixty-four thousand. Sixty. Four. Thousand. It about knocked me over.”

Another reason the books love McIngvale is what Vegas Insider calls the Mattress Mack effect. McIngvale’s huge wagers on the Astros actually help defray the sportsbooks’ liability on more popular teams like the Yankees and Dodgers, teams that would normally be a loss for casinos. For the record, McIngvale doesn’t like the idea of limits, either. “I think they ought to take bigger bets,” he says. “It’s like if some customer comes in here and wants to spend a million dollars. Well? Knock yourself out. What difference does it make? Yes, the sportsbooks have to hedge it the other way, but they ought to have enough savvy to do that. They’re going to take some big losses, but they’re also going to get some big wins too if they have the numbers right.”

That math will continue to keep people like Fuchs up at night until the Astros are eliminated or sports gambling history is made. Although it’s clear he gets a kick out Mattress Mack, and the promotional mileage of his big bets, Fuchs stops short of rooting for the Astros. “It will be a lot of fun to be on this roller coaster as they progress through the postseason,” he says. “That’s the beauty of Mack’s hedge. It works out for everybody. Well, unless we lose $30 million.”

IN THE END, few things can capture the inexplicable phenomenon that is Mattress Mack better than McIngvale’s Astros game attire. About an hour before the Astros faced the Diamondbacks on Sept. 27, McIngvale shuffled into the mezzanine level of Minute Maid Park by himself, sporting his signature look: well-worn black cowboy boots, a slightly askew orange-billed Astros cap, blue business slacks and an authentic Alex Bregman home white Astros jersey over a white button-down oxford, covered in a galaxy of black dots from the Sharpie McIngvale uses to take notes and sign autographs. McIngvale always completes this ensemble with the single most egregious sports-fashion crime of them all: tucking his game jersey into his pants.

And yet, somehow, on him it works.

Apparently, $70 million in free furniture as an accent piece will do that for an outfit. McIngvale promises that number will keep climbing as long the Astros keep winning, the odds remain favorable and the sportsbooks keep taking his bets. McIngvale is close to several of the Astros, especially Bregman, who shares his passion for racehorses, and he insists the players get a kick out of his promotions and don’t feel the least bit of pressure to help remodel the living rooms of half of Houston.

“This year he’s done it right, and if the Astros win it all it’s so exciting for him and the customers,” Linda McIngvale says. “Mack has this huge connection to the team now, and he loves doing this. … The man works really hard so, you know, it’s all good.”

Mobbed by fans the second he steps into the park, it takes McIngvale an hour to walk along the mezzanine from home plate to right field. And when he does finally reach his seat about 10 rows behind the Houston dugout, Section 122 erupts in a wave of applause. The Astros’ response to McIngvale’s arrival is even more dramatic: three homers in four at-bats to blow the game open in the sixth. “He’s an icon, I love him, he’s Mack to me, not Jim McIngvale,” says Sehgal, the Astros SVP. “He’s just an authentic fan with a really big heart, the kind of person you can’t see without it putting a smile on your face.”

Outside of Houston, McIngvale has quickly become an irresistible storyline as a quirky curiosity in the burgeoning world of mega-sports gambling. Inside this city, though, he remains something completely different and far more impactful. For three straight hours inside Minute Maid Park, fans beam when they recognize Mattress Mack. Some yell out “Legend!” and keep walking to their seats. Others repeat his quirky catch phrase or reveal exactly how much free furniture they won in 2017. A little girl asks him if he’s a ballplayer. A few fans bend his ear for gambling advice on the Texans and Oklahoma State. But the vast majority of people who stop do so to offer some heartfelt variation of the same message: “Thank you for everything you’ve done for this city the last 40 years. Go Stros! Let’s get those free mattresses!”

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Is Alabama back? Is Oregon the Big Ten’s best? A raucous Week 5 reshuffled expectations

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September 28, 2025

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Is Alabama back? Is Oregon the Big Ten's best? A raucous Week 5 reshuffled expectations

  • David HaleSep 28, 2025, 01:07 AM ET

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    • College football reporter.
    • Joined ESPN in 2012.
    • Graduate of the University of Delaware.

The beauty of college football, the thing that keeps us coming back week after week in spite of the exasperating morass of everything that happens off the field, is that the sport keeps surprising us.

This shouldn’t be possible. Once you’ve seen the band on the field, the kick-six and a player mimic a urinating dog after a touchdown, we should be immune to such astonishment. And yet, here were are, in Week 5, awash in shock and awe once more.

Who would’ve thought that Alabama, reeling in the aftermath of a Week 1 loss to Florida State, would waltz into Athens and swat down Georgia 24-21 behind a brilliant performance from QB Ty Simpson? Kalen DeBoer has gone from the hot seat to the SEC’s throne in the span of a month.

Who might’ve imagined that James Franklin, three quarters of the way through yet another root canal of a performance in a big game, would see his Penn State team rally from 14 points down to force overtime against Oregon? Even if it all still came to an end with a 30-24 defeat in double overtime, the game felt more like last year’s battle of titans between the Ducks and Ohio State, an appetizer before an entree to come later — in the conference title game or the College Football Playoff or at Dan Lanning’s annual Big Ten family trip to Six Flags.

Who would have imagined that a clattering of cowbells would come within a few yards of upending the SEC’s power structure, that Virginia‘s football program, which had fallen asleep watching Tony Bennett’s offense six years ago, would suddenly awaken to stun Florida State, or that, just days after Brian Kelly promised LSU would keep the Magnolia Trophy, Lane Kiffin would come away with a win and troll Kelly on social media?

OK, so we probably should’ve seen that last one coming.

And so, we’ve reached September’s end, and so much of what seemed certain has come undone. No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 LSU, No. 5 Georgia and No. 8 Florida State all went down in a raucous Week 5 that reshuffled expectations for October and offered a reminder of just how little we know so early in a season.

In Week 1, we got our first true stunner of the new season, as Tommy Castellanos and the Seminoles upended Alabama. After Saturday, it seems impossible to believe that just five weeks have passed since then.

For the Tide, every glaring weakness on display in Tallahassee on Aug. 30 had been miraculously remedied in Athens on Saturday night. Simpson was terrific, throwing for 276 yards and two scores, the defense was stalwart, and DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb worked magic, from a rejuvenated rushing attack to a near flawless night of third-down playcalling to the inspired use of left tackle Kadyn Proctor on a trick play that we assume Bama calls “No, seriously, get out of his way for your own safety! Our health insurance plan does not cover what will happen to you if you attempt to tackle him!”

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Ty Simpson throws pass to 6-foot-7, 366-pound tackle Kayden Proctor

Ty Simpson throws it out to Kayden Proctor, who barrels over everyone to set up first-and-goal.

Georgia had its chances, but came up small is so many big moments, including a misplayed fourth-down call near the goal line. Gunner Stockton was held to just 130 yards through the air in what was surely his most disappointing performance since his pickup truck got a flat tire and he completely missed his chance to score Aerosmith tickets.

It was 17 years ago, in Nick Saban’s second season as Alabama’s head coach, that the Tide arrived in Athens for a “blackout” and stomped Matthew Stafford, A.J. Green and a star-studded Georgia team in a game that announced the new coach’s arrival as the conference’s standard. Whether DeBoer’s win will prove as significant depends entirely on where Alabama goes from here, but after a year of questions and criticism, the possibility no longer feels so far-fetched.

For the better part of three quarters, Oregon-Penn State felt as if Tony Petitti had accidentally cut and pasted an Iowa game into Happy Valley, but when Oregon scored on back-to-back drives to go up 17-3, the boos erupted from the white-clad faithful, the Nittany Lions appeared headed to another dismal defeat at the hands of an elite foe, and Franklin again remained frustratingly stoic, as if he was watching his laundry dry rather than seeing the football gods spite his team once again.

And then, just as suddenly, it all shifted. Drew Allar remembered he can throw the ball forward, Kaytron Allen delivered body blows in the run game befitting a heavyweight boxer, and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki flipped his play card around and realized he had been reading it upside down the whole time

Yes, it was still ultimately a loss for Penn State after Dillon Thieneman picked off Allar in the second overtime. Yes, Oregon’s win warrants ample praise, and the Ducks should comfortably move into the AP top three, as Dante Moore looks like a poised veteran, the corps of tailbacks is deep and dynamic, and the defensive front is utterly ferocious. And yes, Franklin’s reputation for falling short in big games will remain intact a little longer. He’s now 4-21 against AP top-10 opponents, though it seems unfair no one ever mentions he’s 12-0 against the MAC. But Saturday’s fourth quarter did feel different, as if this Penn State team had awoken from a long slumber and was finally now ready to play like a team capable of winning it all, and a Big Ten battle that includes Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana and the Nittany Lions should be among the nation’s best in the coming months.

And all of that was but the grand finale to a weekend that saw so much of the conventional wisdom upended.

Mississippi State‘s dream season nearly reached a new crescendo, but for a failed fourth-down try in overtime against Tennessee.

Florida State was riding high, then it hit a wall against Virginia, who forced the Seminoles into a second overtime, thwarted their final drive and then stormed the field with the pent-up enthusiasm of a stable of racehorses, all but throwing cash at ACC commissioner Jim Phillips to cover the fines before announcing he could keep the change.

Kiffin’s own daughter revealed on social media earlier this week that she was dating LSU star linebacker Whit Weeks, which might have been enough to rattle a lesser father. Not Kiffin though. His Rebels ran roughshod over LSU, as backup QB Trinidad Chambliss continued his unlikely ascent, accounting for 385 yards in a 24-19 win, even if it didn’t cover the total, as Kiffin had promised.

It’s hard to blame Kiffin for the low total. LSU has now failed to crack 24 points in any of its four games against FBS competition this year.

The end result of the weekend is a playoff picture that looks as garbled and vague as ever.

Is Alabama back? Is Penn State a contender? Is Oregon the Big Ten’s best? Is Florida State cooked? Will Brian Kelly’s head explode like a piñata if LSU doesn’t figure out how to run the ball?

September provided more surprises than answers, which is all we could’ve asked for.

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Heisman five

Week 5 vibe check

Each week, big games help dictate the playoff landscape, but a lot of smaller shifts in the college football ecosystem can go unnoticed. We try to keep tabs on those here.

Trending up: Frustration at Southern Cal

USC was off to a 4-0 start and had climbed back into the AP Top 25. Illinois was coming off of a loss to Indiana so horrendous that a lesser coach than Bret Bielema would have faked his own death and started a new life in South America under the name Bert Gunderson.

So, advantage for the Trojans, right?

Of course not! This is USC, a team that would get lost in the drive-through at an In-N-Out Burger.

Despite Illinois twice fumbling inside the red zone, and despite USC driving 80 yards for a go-ahead touchdown with just 1:55 to play, there was really never any doubt what would happen Saturday, because of course, Lane Kiffin used his last wish on that enchanted monkey’s paw he bought at Ed Orgeron’s garage sale to put a curse on the program as revenge for firing him.

In any case, USC is now 13-12 in its past 25 games, dating back to 2023. As a general rule, if Trojans are that ineffective, there’s either a coaching change or the theft of a monarch’s wife by a rival nation-state. What this means for Lincoln Riley is complicated, as firing him would be extremely expensive and also result in so much exuberant laughter in Oklahoma that the wind created would risk another dust bowl situation.

Trending down: SEC job security

Saturday’s performance in Fayetteville might have been the point of no return for Sam Pittman at Arkansas. The Hogs lost for the third straight game, this time in horrific fashion as Notre Dame utterly shredded the D to the tune of 641 yards in a 56-13 win. Jeremiyah Love scored four times in the first half — two on receptions, two runs — and CJ Carr threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns in the win.

During the Razorbacks’ three-game losing streak, they have surrendered a whopping 129 points, which would normally make DC Travis Williams the most reviled coordinator of the Pittman era, but Dan Enos also worked there, so that honor is locked up.

Meanwhile, lurking in the shadows, Bobby Petrino’s diabolical scheme to regain power like the Empire building a second Death Star is finally coming to fruition.

Things are only slightly more secure for Auburn‘s Hugh Freeze, who was brought to The Plains with the expressed intent of ending Nick Saban’s dynasty and building an offensive juggernaut as he had done at Ole Miss and Liberty before. Turns out, Freeze managed the first job by default, with Saban retiring to spend more time with his insurance duck. The second task, however, has proven more difficult, and on Saturday, Auburn’s offense mustered just 155 total yards against Texas A&M, racking up more penalties (10) and as many punts (nine) as first downs.

Freeze is now 5-13 in SEC play since taking over at Auburn. Things are so bleak he’s already confirmed tee times for November, and Auburn boosters are texting Houston Nutt to file a FOIA for Freeze’s phone records.

Then there’s Mark Stoops, who’s hoping he can just fly under the radar until basketball season and then everyone will forget that Kentucky stinks again this year. The Wildcats were waxed 35-13 by South Carolina, and new starting QB Cutter Boley threw two costly interceptions amid another dismal offensive performance. Frankly, if a QB with as SEC a name as “Cutter Boley” can’t get the job done, there doesn’t seem to be any hope for UK to turn things around.

Trending up: Throwback celebrations

Kansas tight end Boden Groen went old-school after catching a touchdown pass early in the second half against Cincinnati, reintroducing the world to “The Dab,” which amazingly is now having a better year than “The Dabo.”

Unfortunately, turning back the clock to the mid-2010s isn’t a good thing for Kansas, which spent most of that decade tying its shoelaces together, then running down a hill covered with banana peels. Predictably, the Jayhawks 34-30 lead with 1:45 to play evaporated quickly as Cincinnati engineered a brilliant 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to secure a 37-34 win.

The Bearcats then celebrated by doing the ice bucket challenge before riding hoverboards into the locker room while blaring “Old Town Road.”

Trending down: Second-half leads in the ACC

Wake Forest was on the brink of scripting the latest chapter in the best-selling memoir “Why the ACC Can’t Have Nice Things,” leading Georgia Tech by as many as 17 in the second half. But Wake let the lead slip away in part due to a controversial missed call in the final two minutes of regulation, and in part because of what Yellow Jackets coach Brent Key called a halftime “hard reset,” which presumably means they unplugged Haynes King and then plugged him back in again.

Wake had a chance to close out the game on a third-and-5 play with 1:48 to go. A Tech defender was clearly offsides, and QB Robby Ashford used the free play opportunity to throw deep. The pass was incomplete, the flag never came, and Wake had to punt — giving Tech a chance to kick a tying field goal and send the game to overtime. The Deacons failed to convert a 2-point try after a Demond Claiborne touchdown, and the Jackets held on for a 30-29 win.

Meanwhile, each new season of Pitt football continues to be akin to a trip to IKEA. It all begins with such optimism and a true sense of adventure, but soon enough devolves into a series of epithets and frustration until Pat Narduzzi is lost in the kitchen appliances section and all those Swedish meatballs suddenly aren’t sitting so well, and you’re screaming at your partner, “I don’t know why we needed a Holstëin in the first place! I was perfectly happy using some plywood atop a stack of cinder blocks!”

Anyway, Pitt blew a 17-point lead to Louisville and lost in embarrassing fashion for the second time in as many games, 34-27.

Trending up: Rivalry trophies

This year, the rivalry between UL Monroe and Arkansas State was dubbed the “Rice Bowl Rivalry” with an appropriately designed trophy to go with the new moniker. The Red Wolves had won the past 15 matchups in the series, but the best they had to show for it was some crowns they stole from a Burger King. But things were different this time around. ULM erased an early 10-0 deficit behind two TD passes from Aidan Armenta to pull off a 28-16 win.

Trending down: Hoosier highlights

A week ago, Indiana looked as dominant as any team in the country. On Saturday, the Hoosiers faced Iowa in a far different scenario. Facing Iowa is like riding rollercoasters after a dinner at Golden Corral. It doesn’t matter how good-looking and successful you are, things are going to get gross.

And so it was that the Hoosiers staggered into the fourth quarter trailing 13-10, and after a late interception, looked to be on the verge of an upset.

Instead, Iowa did what Iowa does best: Stalled on a drive, missed a field goal, then turned the ball over on downs after an Indiana TD. The Hoosiers held on for a 20-15 win and immediately determined this game would be remembered like Season 2 of “Friday Night Lights,” a horrible misstep that no one considers canon.

Trending up: Big 12 high jinks

Who’s the best team in the Big 12? We didn’t know a month ago, we don’t know now, and there’s at least a 12% chance we’ll only find out in December after some sort of high stakes game of rock, paper, scissors.

The conference continues to be college football’s equivalent of your quirky uncle whom everyone loves, but no one trusts to babysit their kids, as Week 5 saw Houston stay undefeated after a raucous come-from-behind win in overtime against Oregon State, Iowa State shellack Arizona while utilizing the rare fake PAT, Arizona State reaffirm its place as a conference contender after a late rally against TCU, and Oklahoma State lose once again but this time while Mike Gundy was busy fly fishing in a shopping mall fountain.

This, of course, is what makes the Big 12 great. Everything is possible, and it’s entirely possible that by the end of October, Rich Rodriguez will have a Golden Retriever playing QB, Deion Sanders will have Shedeur don a fake mustache and attempt to rejoin Colorado, and Texas Tech will simply just pay Arizona State to forfeit the rest of the season.

Under-the-radar game of the week

Hawai’i outlasted Air Force 44-35 in a game that featured more than 1,000 yards of total offense, 41 points scored in the fourth quarter, 457 yards and three TD passes from Hawai’i QB Micah Alejado and a remarkable performance by the Rainbow Warriors, who converted 14 of 19 third-down tries. After the conclusion, the governor of Iowa proclaimed any footage of this game as contraband unfit for viewing.

Under-the-radar play of the week

Two weeks after firing head coach Brent Pry, who’d been 1-12 in one-possession games, Virginia Tech eked out a 23-21 victory over NC State, thanks in large part to the heroics of tailback Terion Stewart, who rushed for 175 yards in the game, including this 85-yarder.

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Terion Stewart rips an 85-yard rush

Terion Stewart puts Virginia Tech in scoring position with an 85-yard run.

The win for the Hokies how sets up a solid chain of events in the transitive property championships: Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech, who beat NC State, who beat Virginia, who beat Florida State, who beat Alabama, who beat Georgia. Therefore Old Dominion is better than Georgia. T

Heisman five

The Heisman race was already a mess, but things took another turn this week when the presumed front-runner, Oklahoma‘s John Mateer, was lost for the foreseeable future following hand surgery, leading Arch Manning to note, “right, hand surgery! That’s what I have, too! That explains everything. Shoulder surgery. I mean, hand. Hand surgery.” Regardless, we’re revising our top five candidates after Week 5, and we’ll add Mateer back into the mix if he returns quickly enough to keep his Heisman hopes alive.

1. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza

Mendoza wasn’t exactly sharp, but he did throw for a pair of scores in a win over the Hawkeyes. In Homer’s “Odyssey,” playing offense at Iowa is considered one of the most treacherous perils in the hero’s journey, just ahead of the Lotus-Eaters and just behind being drafted by the New York Jets.

2. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss

In three games without starter Austin Simmons, Ole Miss hasn’t missed a beat, as Chambliss — the transfer from Ferris State has emerged as one of college football’s best stories. He has helped the Rebels topple Arkansas, Tulane and LSU, he is averaging better than 10 yards per pass, and he has accounted for seven touchdowns and just one turnover. The only flaw in this amazing narrative is that he doesn’t have a twin brother named Tobago Chambliss who plays slot receiver.

3. Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia

Vandy is 5-0 for the first time since 2008, and much of the success is due to its star QB. Pavia, whose first season in college football coincided with the advent of the forward pass, has thrived, including a six-touchdown performance in Saturday’s 55-35 win over Utah State. After the game, Pavia even showed off his singing voice.

Not to be outdone, Manning quickly attempted to revive his own Heisman hopes by doing a passable karaoke rendition of “Islands in the Stream” with Steve Sarkisian at a local Applebees.

4. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith

The Buckeyes’ offense has been fairly conservative in two tougher matchups against Texas and, Saturday, vs. Washington. Still, Smith has shined, catching eight passes for 81 yards and a score in a 24-6 win over the Huskies. Afterwards, he taught Julian Sayin how to shave.

5. Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy

Another week, another 100-yard game for Hardy. The ULM transfer carried 24 times for 130 yards and three touchdowns in a win over UMass. But if he had stayed at his previous school, he’d be out celebrating with a Rice Bowl trophy right now, so it’s a mixed bag for Hardy.

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 5: How big was the bump for Oregon, Bama?

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September 28, 2025

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 5: How big was the bump for Oregon, Bama?

Oregon’s win at Penn State catapulted the Ducks into the top three this week, but they weren’t the only movers on a statement Saturday where winning on the road provided an extra boost.

Welcome back, Alabama.

There’s a temporary ceiling, though, for some of these contenders, as the selection committee’s head-to-head tiebreaker is factoring into the ranking. It’s one of several tiebreakers they use when comparing teams, and as long as the teams have similar records, the group has historically leaned on the head-to-head result. That’s helping Florida State tremendously right now.

The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to-date, the ones with statement wins and/or multiple wins against respectable teams have the early edge.

The list below is fluid — and will continue to be as teams enter the heart of conference play. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.

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Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The Canes had a bye week to prepare for their trip to Florida State, but entered this week ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — a statistic that has historically aligned with the selection committee’s top four teams. With Notre Dame’s resounding win at Arkansas, the Canes’ season-opening win against the Irish continues to shine. Miami’s wins against South Florida and Florida — both of which had bye weeks — continues to collectively help separate the Canes.

Why they could be lower: The Canes have won all four games at home — at a point in the season when other contenders have had to win tough games on the road. Both Ohio State and Oregon have now won tough conference road games.

Need to know: Saturday’s game against FSU could be Miami’s last game during the regular season against a ranked opponent. Right now, Miami is on track for a top four seed, which means a first-round bye. If the Canes lose to FSU — and/or if they finish as the ACC runner-up — this could impact their seeding because so many SEC teams have loaded schedules in the back half of the season.

Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gave the Canes a 63.6% chance to win. The Canes are projected to win each of their remaining games and have the best chance in the conference (67.9%) to reach the ACC title game.

Why they could be here: It wasn’t an easy trip to the West Coast, where the Buckeyes held a precarious 7-3 halftime lead against Washington, but they found a way. This was Ohio State’s first road game, and it took until the second half to find an offensive groove, but this was a respectable Big Ten win to complement the season-opener against Texas.

Why they could be lower: Oregon’s win at Penn State currently looks better than Ohio State’s home win against the Longhorns. The committee could value that one win more than Ohio State’s two against Texas and Washington.

Need to know: Two of Ohio State’s next three games are on the road — Oct. 11 at Illinois and Oct. 18 at Wisconsin. The Illini rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Indiana with a close win against USC on Saturday. That should keep them in the top 25 and give the Buckeyes another opportunity against a ranked opponent, which they might need if Texas struggles in the SEC and the Buckeyes don’t win the Big Ten.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 against Penn State.

Why they could be here: The Ducks earned their first statement win — and they did it in double overtime on the road — but it was their first win against an FBS opponent above .500. Northwestern is 2-2, Oklahoma State is 1-3 and has already fired its head coach, Oregon State is 0-5 and Montana State is an FCS program. As much hype as there has been around Penn State, the Nittany Lions remain a team without any wins against Power 4 opponents.

Why they could be higher: Oregon has been dominant against the weaker teams and found a way to beat one of the best teams — on the road. The win at Penn State is better than Ohio State’s home win against Texas, and the Ducks have two road wins compared to none for the Canes.

Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, and it has a bye week to prepare for the Hoosiers on Oct. 11.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Indiana. This might be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face during the regular season following USC’s loss to Illinois.

Why they could be here: The Aggies were able to build upon their win at Notre Dame by beating Auburn, giving Texas A&M some staying power in the playoff race. It helped that the Irish won convincingly at Arkansas, meaning A&M’s victory in South Bend remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country. Wins against UTSA and Utah State aren’t going to help the Aggies’ résumé, but their defensive performance against Auburn will impress the committee.

Why they could be lower: Oklahoma also beat Auburn in similar fashion, and has a strong nonconference win against Michigan. The Sooners don’t have a road win on par with beating the Irish in South Bend, though. Ole Miss has a case to be ranked ahead of both of them because of its full body of work, which now includes three SEC wins and a win against Tulane.

Need to know: Saturday’s game against Mississippi State could be tougher than originally expected. The Bulldogs pushed Tennessee to overtime in Week 5. The Aggies should be favored to win their next three games (Mississippi State, Florida and at Arkansas). If they lose one of those games, it puts pressure on them to have a winning record against the remaining three ranked opponents: LSU, Mizzou and Texas.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. Even though the Tigers lost, their defense is still one of the best the Aggies will face, and they’ll have home field advantage — possibly at night.

Why they could be here: The Rebels knocked off LSU, and have now won four straight games against respectable opponents, including three SEC teams (LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky). It also helped that Tulane beat Tulsa, and the Green Wave remains in contention for a playoff spot as one of the five highest ranked conference champions if they can win the American. Overall, this is one of the stronger résumés of the contenders, but Ole Miss is also passing the eye test as a complete team.

Why they could be lower: Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 4-5, and Georgia State is 1-3 in the Sun Belt.

Need to know: The Rebels have one of the more winnable remaining SEC schedules of the contenders, with back-to-back trips to Georgia and Oklahoma their biggest looming obstacles. The undefeated Rebels also have something key to impressing the selection committee — two quarterbacks capable of starting. The play of backup quarterbacks is critical to the selection process (it kept undefeated ACC champ Florida State out of the CFP in 2023, but helped Ohio State in during the 2014 season). With Austin Simmons injured, it’s clear backup Trinidad Chambliss is more than capable of leading a team toward an SEC title run.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Rebels also have an Oct. 25 trip to Oklahoma, but it’s unclear if the Sooners will have injured starting quarterback John Mateer back by then (unlikely).

Why they could be here: The Sooners had a bye and the committee would rank them based on what they’ve done to-date — with quarterback John Mateer in the lineup. The committee doesn’t project ahead, so the hand injury he suffered in the first quarter isn’t a factor in this week’s prediction. Wins against Auburn and Michigan are still among the best in the country, and the nonconference win against the Wolverines can continue to help separate the Sooners from other teams that played weaker schedules.

Why they could be higher: Oklahoma was passing the eye test with Mateer in the lineup, and the committee doesn’t typically move teams around if they don’t play — unless teams around them are shuffled. The group could give the Sooners more credit for wins against Michigan and Auburn than Ole Miss’ wins against Kentucky and Arkansas. Still, it’s hard for OU to win a debate against the Rebels’ entire résumé, which now includes the LSU win.

Need to know: The committee’s protocol requires their consideration of factors like injuries to key players. If Oklahoma loses a game or two with Mateer sidelined, the committee will understand the circumstance. That doesn’t mean it’s a hall pass to play poorly, but it does mean it can be overcome. A two-loss OU team that rebounds and runs the table with Mateer in the lineup (and playing like he did before he was injured), is almost a shoe-in for the playoff. They’d have to beat all ranked opponents in the second half of the season. The timeline for Mateer’s return, though, is uncertain. And as long as he’s out of the lineup, the committee will rank the Sooners based on if they look like a top-12 team with sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. in the lineup.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. This is suddenly an even bigger challenge, as Mateer should still be recovering from hand surgery. ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns a 66.3% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The head-to-head with Alabama still looms large because it’s one of the tiebreakers the committee uses to help rank teams with comparable records. As long as FSU and Bama both have one loss, the committee would likely refer to its protocol. The group would also recognize Friday’s loss was in double overtime on the road, and so far, Virginia is a respectable 4-1 opponent. Virginia athletic director Carla Williams is a member of the selection committee, and while she can’t vote or participate in discussions about UVA, she can give information about what she saw from the Noles, and can provide information about her program.

Why they could be lower: The Noles didn’t pass the eye test. They were beaten up front, made two many mistakes early, and were playing from behind most of the game.

Need to know: FSU now has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game, according to ESPN Analytics, behind Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech.

Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Miami. This might be FSU’s last chance to impress the committee against a ranked opponent during the regular season.

Why they could be here: The Tide reasserted itself as a playoff contender, winning their first statement game of the season after a season-opening loss at Florida State. That head-to-head result, though, is keeping the Tide behind the Noles because it’s one of several tiebreakers the committee uses to rank comparable teams. Still, it was enough to push Alabama back into the playoff conversation after three straight wins and it keeps the Tide in the hunt to win the SEC.

Why they could be higher: The win at Georgia was on the road, and the Tide passed the eye test — something Florida State didn’t do this week.

Need to know: Alabama entered Saturday with the seventh toughest remaining schedule in the country, as five of the next seven opponents are ranked. Saturday’s win at Georgia gives the Tide a slight cushion in the SEC race.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Tennessee. The game against LSU won’t be easy, but Bama’s offense looks better. The Vols gave Georgia fits and could do the same to Bama.

Why they could be here: The head-to-head loss to the Tide will keep Georgia below Alabama, but the same tiebreaker will keep Georgia ahead of the Vols. The win against Tennessee still looks good, even as the Vols struggled to beat Mississippi State. The overtime win against Tennessee is all they have, though, as home wins against Austin Peay and Marshall don’t help their case.

Why they could be lower: Georgia was fortunate to beat Tennessee, and Indiana is still undefeated.

Need to know: Rival Georgia Tech is still undefeated following a scare against Wake Forest on Saturday and should be favored in each of its games leading into the regular-season finale.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. The Rebels might be better than last year, when they had what many believed to be a more talented team.

Why they could be here: The Hoosiers escaped on Saturday with a 20-15 win at Iowa, a notoriously difficult place to play. A close win is better than a loss, just ask fellow contenders LSU and Florida State which dropped road games this week. It was the fewest points IU had scored this season, but Indiana now has back-to-back Big Ten wins and its first road win. It also helped IU that Illinois beat USC, further legitimizing the Hoosiers’ 63-10 beatdown of the Illini.

Why they could be lower: If IU is below Penn State after the Nittany Lions lost at home to Oregon, it would simply because more people in the committee meeting room think PSU is the more talented team. It would be tough to justify, though, given Penn State’s three wins weren’t against Power 4 teams. The committee might not think Illinois is a top 25 team, also leaving the Hoosiers without a win against a ranked opponent.

Need to know: The Hoosiers have a bye week to prepare for their Oct. 11 trip to Oregon. IU doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan, but the Hoosiers will have a more difficult path to the playoff this year than last with road trips to Oregon and Penn State still looming.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. The Ducks’ win at Penn State was proof the defending Big Ten champs are still at the top of the league, along with Ohio State. If IU could pull off the upset in Autzen, it would be one of the biggest of the season.

Why they could be here: The loss to Georgia is keeping the Vols behind the Bulldogs, and they got a scare on Saturday at Mississippi State before winning in overtime. The season-opening win against Syracuse doesn’t look as impressive after the Orange lost 38-3 to Duke. Unlike LSU, though, the Vols haven’t had any trouble finding points.

Why they could be lower: The Vols lost at home to Georgia, which took a slight hit after the Bulldogs lost to Alabama. Meanwhile, LSU lost on the road to undefeated Ole Miss. It’s possible the committee would have LSU ahead of Tennessee and Penn State.

Need to know: The Vols have a bye week to prepare for Arkansas before back-to-back SEC road games against Alabama and Kentucky.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. The Tide has improved each week since its loss to Florida State and is favored to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN’s FPI.

Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions are a talented team, but don’t have the résumé to show for it. With wins against Villanova, FIU and Nevada, Penn State has the worst résumé of all the contenders. The committee considers how teams lose, too, and the gap between Oregon and Penn State clearly isn’t that wide.

Why they could be lower: LSU lost on the road to an undefeated Ole Miss team, while PSU lost at home. LSU also has wins against Clemson and Florida, and while those teams have struggled this year, they’re still better than what PSU has on its résumé.

Need to know: If Penn State doesn’t beat Ohio State, it’s not a lock to reach the playoff at 10-2. This is already a dangerous spot for the Nittany Lions, as they would be bumped out of the CFP to make room the fourth and fifth highest-ranked conference champions. In this scenario, both the Big 12 and American champs are ranked outside of the projected top 10. If Penn State loses to Ohio State, it has to beat Indiana to have a chance.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. If the Nittany Lions couldn’t beat Oregon at home, how are they going to beat the defending national champs on the road?

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami

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Franklin takes ‘ownership’ of PSU loss to Ducks

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September 28, 2025

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Franklin takes 'ownership' of PSU loss to Ducks

  • Jake TrotterSep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM ET

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      Jake Trotter is a senior writer at ESPN. Trotter covers college football. He also writes about other college sports, including men’s and women’s basketball. Trotter resides in the Cleveland area with his wife and three kids and is a fan of his hometown Oklahoma City Thunder. He covered the Cleveland Browns and NFL for ESPN for five years, moving back to college football in 2024. Previously, Trotter worked for the Middletown (Ohio) Journal, Austin American-Statesman and Oklahoman newspapers before joining ESPN in 2011. He’s a 2004 graduate of Washington and Lee University. You can reach out to Trotter at jake.trotter@espn.com and follow him on X at @Jake_Trotter.

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — After their latest loss to a top-10 opponent, Nittany Lions coach James Franklin said he understands the growing frustration of the Penn State fan base.

The third-ranked Nittany Lions fell 30-24 in double overtime to No. 6 Oregon on Saturday night in front of a “White Out” crowd at Beaver Stadium.

The defeat dropped Franklin to 4-21 at Penn State against AP top-10 opponents, including 1-18 against top-10 Big Ten teams.

“I get that narrative and it’s really not a narrative — it’s factual. It’s the facts,” Franklin said. “I try to look at the entire picture and what we’ve been able to do here. But at the end of the day, we got to find a way to win those games. I totally get it. And I take ownership. I take responsibility.”

Franklin’s .160 winning percentage against AP top-10 teams is tied for the third-worst record by a coach (minimum of 25 games) at a single school since the poll era began in 1936, according to ESPN Research.

“We have a passionate fan base,” Franklin said. “When we win, there’s nothing better. When we lose, there’s nothing worse. So, I get it. I get the frustration that comes with a fan base that is invested and cares.”

The Nittany Lions nearly pulled off their biggest fourth-quarter comeback since 2016 against Ohio State — which remains Franklin’s only Big Ten win against a top-10 opponent.

Penn State trailed 17-3, but senior quarterback Drew Allar engineered back-to-back touchdown drives to send the game to overtime. The Nittany Lions then scored a touchdown on the third play of the opening overtime possession.

But the Ducks answered with a touchdown, then scored another on the first play of the second overtime.

On the ensuing snap, Allar threw an interception to Dillon Thieneman, sealing the Ducks’ dramatic victory.

“I tried to get the ball over the guy’s head,” Allar said. “He jumped up and caught the ball.”

During Big Ten media days over the summer, Allar said it was time for Penn State “to get over that hump” in big games. Allar’s fourth-quarter interception in the College Football Playoff semifinals last season set up Notre Dame’s game-winning field goal and ended Penn State’s season.

Allar, Penn State’s starter since 2023, is 0-6 in his career against AP top-6 opponents. He has one victory against a top-10 team, which occurred in last year’s CFP quarterfinals against Boise State.

“Obviously, it hurts,” Allar said. “We had our opportunities. … But it’s a long season ahead of us. We’re going to have more opportunities to fix this — and I’ll be the first one to go into the fire.”

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