Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
China has so far not acted in an aggressive manner toward shipping in the South China Sea, but the very potential of action creates a clear threat to the economies of Japan and South Korea.
Kazuhiro Nogi | AFP | Getty Images
The following commentary is from Kevin Klowden, chief global strategist of Milken Institute.
News coverage of the weekend’s Group of Seven meetings focused on Ukraine, but China’s rising global presence was the other big topic on the G7 agenda. For two of East Asia’s biggest economies, in particular, the implications of that rise are critically important.
China wants to be the great military and political power of East Asia. Nowhere is that more evident than in President Xi Jinping’s “nine-dash” declaration, through which Beijing claims sovereignty over almost all the South China Sea. And of all the countries with cause to be concerned about that claim, perhaps none have more on the line than Japan and South Korea.
Most of the world is focused on the resource and military implications of Chinese claims to the islands in the region, and Beijing’s development of what is becoming the world’s largest navy. For Japan and South Korea, the threat to their supply chains and energy imports is a far more real and present issue.
In particular, Japan and South Korea are concerned about Chinese declarations which invoke not only the right to inspect cargo, but also the ability to restrict traffic. Neither Japan nor South Korea has any political interest in the ownership of the Spratly Islands, or in China replacing the United States as a dominant naval power. However, they have a strong economic stake in moving their energy imports and manufacturing components without fear of restriction. Even in a non-wartime situation, China has taken the position that the South China Sea is a controlled territory rather than open international waters under Chinese guardianship.
China has so far not acted in an aggressive manner toward shipping in the sea, but the very potential of action creates a clear threat to the economies of Japan and South Korea. China wouldn’t even have to directly stop vessels — it could merely electronically track specific cargo, or carry out inspections or diversions. Such actions would raise the specter of unpredictability and significantly rising costs.
For Japan and South Korea, the role taken by the United States in the post-World War II period was far less disruptive, not only because of their alliance but, more importantly, because the United States acted as a guarantor of free trade and protected movement through the corridor.
Linking the two countries to trading partners in Southeast Asia, India, and beyond is going to increase rather than decrease in importance.
Kevin Klowden
Milken Institute
Few people outside Japan or South Korea focus on or understand just how significant the South China Sea is when it comes to regional and even global energy supplies. Significantly, the sea is estimated to carry 30% of the world’s crude oil, supplying China and providing a vital lifeline for the energy-dependent economies of South Korea and Japan.
For Japan, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and subsequent nuclear accident at Fukushima only exacerbated that dependence. The resulting curtailment of Japan’s nuclear program has left the country dependent on energy imports, with as much as 98% of Japanese oil coming from the Middle East.
In many ways, South Korea is even more dependent on energy imports than Japan, making oil and natural gas imports especially significant.
The South China Sea is important in more than just energy. It also serves as a key passageway for Japan and South Korea’s global supply chains. Estimates suggest that the sea carries between 20% and 33% of global trade; for Japan, that figure reaches as much as 40%.
As global supply chains regionalize, the role of the South China Sea in the Japanese and South Korean economies will only grow. Linking the two countries to trading partners in Southeast Asia, India, and beyond is going to increase rather than decrease in importance.
Japan and South Korea have been able to rely on the stability of the South China Sea as a conduit for driving their economic growth, even as the global political situation has changed over the decades. Significant shifts, including the Vietnam War and the end of the Cold War, haven’t stopped trade in the sea from growing more and more important.
As the United States balances commitments in Europe, Asia and elsewhere, the three strongest economies of East Asia — China included — all have a vested interest in ensuring the stability of trade, supply chains and energy flows.
For South Korea and Japan, trade remains stable in the South China Sea for now. But with China increasingly looking to assert itself and change the status quo in its favor, it’s essential that both countries ask themselves: How much are they willing and able to concede to China in the region before it becomes untenable? And are they prepared with alternatives that will allow them to compete economically?
Knowing the answers to those questions and being prepared for a more Chinese-dominant future in the South China Sea is important for all three countries — even if the status quo holds for now.
Environment
Clean energy sector looks to create even more jobs after the election — regardless of who wins
As presidential nominees Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump prepare to face off in their first debate Tuesday night, voters will be tuning in for clarity on their plans to handle issues including the economy, inflation and job growth.
One sector that faces particular uncertainty after the election is clean energy, which has received a boost from the Biden administration but faced skepticism from Trump.
Climate change and a move toward more sustainable energy have bolstered job growth in the sector in recent years, thanks in part to funding from the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act. Recent data from the Department of Energy showed clean energy employment increased by 142,000 jobs last year, accounting for more than half of new energy-sector jobs.
The rate was more than double the growth for the rest of the energy sector and the overall U.S. economy, according to the newly released 2024 U.S. Energy and Employment Report.
Since the implementation of the IRA and the CHIPS and Science Act, there’s been more “long-term certainty” for jobs related to energy efficiency, renewables and climate resilience, the nonprofit Environmental and Energy Study Institute said. The IRA is projected to generate more than 300,000 jobs annually for new energy project construction and about 100,000 permanent jobs each year, according to the EESI.
While job growth in the sector faces uncertainty after the election, industry watchers say the future of energy production and consumption is always changing.
“Energy systems have been in transition for decades — it’s always in transition, it’s always in a state of flux,” Daniel Bresette, president of EESI, said of the upcoming election’s impact.
Ameresco, which integrates clean tech and develops, owns and operates renewable energy projects, is forging ahead with hiring plans regardless of the election’s outcome. It will increase its hiring by 300 workers in the U.S. and Europe this year, in positions ranging from engineers to project managers, developers, analysts and more. Ameresco provides efficient energy solutions for clients that range from federal and state governments to colleges and hospitals.
“Everyone needs energy no matter what, regardless of who is in the White House. So the driver is going to be increasing that need for more secure energy sources, for cheaper energy sources and for cleaner energy sources,” said Nicole Bulgarino, executive vice president and general manager of federal and utility solutions at Ameresco.
The company is also looking to Gen Z to fill the jobs, as fewer applicants are coming up through trade and vocational schools and younger workers have shown an interest in climate-friendly opportunities. Ameresco, which offers tuition reimbursement and mentorship programs, said it has had success in recruiting recent college grads and investing in their training.
Caroline Leilani Stevenson, a 22-year-old associate electrical engineer at Ameresco, is part of the Gen Z hiring push. Stevenson interned with Ameresco and came back full-time after graduation, working today on projects with the Department of Defense.
She was able to work on a solar project in Honolulu, which was particularly meaningful, as she grew up on Maui. Like others in her generation, she found the idea of working toward more sustainable energy solutions appealing.
“I wanted to make an impact and build something really big,” she said. “The energy needs of a large naval base are not the same as a small elementary school and the suburbs of New York or the energy usage of a hospital are not the same as a large data center … It’s great to be able to design something for a specific site and make a difference in that way. Being able to see and know that the power from these lines is going somewhere and it’s eventually going to improve life at large.”
As Harris and Trump prepare to debate their policies, neither candidate has put forth a comprehensive plan on energy and climate change so far, leading to uncertainty for the sector. But their experiences in the White House can help to inform possible paths.
Harris was a key part of implementing the Inflation Reduction Act, as she cast the tiebreaking vote to pass the bill as vice president to President Joe Biden. She also backed the Green New Deal while serving in the Senate but has walked back some of her earlier stances that veered further to the progressive left. Harris also said during an interview with CNN that she would not ban fracking, a position she’d taken in her previous bid for the White House.
Trump meanwhile has promised to make energy cheaper and focused on drilling for oil in the U.S. He also rolled back major climate policies and has said he would rescind the IRA’s unspent dollars if elected. He called the Green New Deal the “Green New Scam” at an event at the Economic Club of New York last week.
One thing is for sure: Industry analysts are projecting the need for energy to increase significantly, regardless of November’s outcome.
“There [is] lots and lots of new, especially in the electricity space, lots of new demand, [from] the transportation sector, electrification, data centers, artificial intelligence. All of that adds up to a lot of electricity demand,” said Bresette. “It is almost difficult to imagine how much more energy we’re going to need in the future.”
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