Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
China has so far not acted in an aggressive manner toward shipping in the South China Sea, but the very potential of action creates a clear threat to the economies of Japan and South Korea.
Kazuhiro Nogi | AFP | Getty Images
The following commentary is from Kevin Klowden, chief global strategist of Milken Institute.
News coverage of the weekend’s Group of Seven meetings focused on Ukraine, but China’s rising global presence was the other big topic on the G7 agenda. For two of East Asia’s biggest economies, in particular, the implications of that rise are critically important.
China wants to be the great military and political power of East Asia. Nowhere is that more evident than in President Xi Jinping’s “nine-dash” declaration, through which Beijing claims sovereignty over almost all the South China Sea. And of all the countries with cause to be concerned about that claim, perhaps none have more on the line than Japan and South Korea.
Most of the world is focused on the resource and military implications of Chinese claims to the islands in the region, and Beijing’s development of what is becoming the world’s largest navy. For Japan and South Korea, the threat to their supply chains and energy imports is a far more real and present issue.
In particular, Japan and South Korea are concerned about Chinese declarations which invoke not only the right to inspect cargo, but also the ability to restrict traffic. Neither Japan nor South Korea has any political interest in the ownership of the Spratly Islands, or in China replacing the United States as a dominant naval power. However, they have a strong economic stake in moving their energy imports and manufacturing components without fear of restriction. Even in a non-wartime situation, China has taken the position that the South China Sea is a controlled territory rather than open international waters under Chinese guardianship.
China has so far not acted in an aggressive manner toward shipping in the sea, but the very potential of action creates a clear threat to the economies of Japan and South Korea. China wouldn’t even have to directly stop vessels — it could merely electronically track specific cargo, or carry out inspections or diversions. Such actions would raise the specter of unpredictability and significantly rising costs.
For Japan and South Korea, the role taken by the United States in the post-World War II period was far less disruptive, not only because of their alliance but, more importantly, because the United States acted as a guarantor of free trade and protected movement through the corridor.
Linking the two countries to trading partners in Southeast Asia, India, and beyond is going to increase rather than decrease in importance.
Kevin Klowden
Milken Institute
Few people outside Japan or South Korea focus on or understand just how significant the South China Sea is when it comes to regional and even global energy supplies. Significantly, the sea is estimated to carry 30% of the world’s crude oil, supplying China and providing a vital lifeline for the energy-dependent economies of South Korea and Japan.
For Japan, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and subsequent nuclear accident at Fukushima only exacerbated that dependence. The resulting curtailment of Japan’s nuclear program has left the country dependent on energy imports, with as much as 98% of Japanese oil coming from the Middle East.
In many ways, South Korea is even more dependent on energy imports than Japan, making oil and natural gas imports especially significant.
The South China Sea is important in more than just energy. It also serves as a key passageway for Japan and South Korea’s global supply chains. Estimates suggest that the sea carries between 20% and 33% of global trade; for Japan, that figure reaches as much as 40%.
As global supply chains regionalize, the role of the South China Sea in the Japanese and South Korean economies will only grow. Linking the two countries to trading partners in Southeast Asia, India, and beyond is going to increase rather than decrease in importance.
Japan and South Korea have been able to rely on the stability of the South China Sea as a conduit for driving their economic growth, even as the global political situation has changed over the decades. Significant shifts, including the Vietnam War and the end of the Cold War, haven’t stopped trade in the sea from growing more and more important.
As the United States balances commitments in Europe, Asia and elsewhere, the three strongest economies of East Asia — China included — all have a vested interest in ensuring the stability of trade, supply chains and energy flows.
For South Korea and Japan, trade remains stable in the South China Sea for now. But with China increasingly looking to assert itself and change the status quo in its favor, it’s essential that both countries ask themselves: How much are they willing and able to concede to China in the region before it becomes untenable? And are they prepared with alternatives that will allow them to compete economically?
Knowing the answers to those questions and being prepared for a more Chinese-dominant future in the South China Sea is important for all three countries — even if the status quo holds for now.
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Disney’s Autopia ride has been making headlines recently, after a park spokesperson told the LA Times that the park is “evaluating technology that will enable us to convert from gas engines in the next few years.” But activists want to put the pressure on to ensure that Disney goes all-EV with the ride, and fast.
The news was reported in many outlets suggesting that Disney is going all-electric with Autopia, but unfortunately, Disney’s statement is a little noncommittal and open on that front. We’ve seen a lot of automakers call 100% gas-powered hybrids as “electrified,” and given that Disney was nonspecific about both its timeline and powertrain source, there’s still room for pressure to ensure that Disney goes with an all-electric choice.
Autopia is a classic ride in Disneyland’s “Tomorrowland” area, but given the EV world we’re living in, its stinky gas-powered cars certainly don’t seem too futuristic.
Until 2016, Autopia vehicles were noisy, polluting two-stroke engines. Two-stroke engines differ from four-stroke in that they can create more power in small formats, but are much dirtier because the combustion process is less complete in a two-stroke engine, and thus exhaust contains ~30x higher levels of particulate emissions (for example, running a two-stroke gas leafblower for one hour can make as many poisonous emissions as driving a passenger car 1,100 miles).
The emissions from these engines cause smog and harm the health of those who breathe them – so putting them directly in front of small children isn’t the best idea. But the ride was sponsored by Chevron from 1998-2012, and that company is pretty dedicated to poisoning small children anyway, so it was apt.
Thankfully, in 2012, Disney attracted a new sponsor, Honda, and in 2016, Honda upgraded the engines to small four-stroke engines, reducing noise and pollution significantly. However, the cars still create exhaust, which is still poisonous to the children riding behind these polluting engines. It’s also poisonous to employees, to the point where Disney pays hazard pay to employees who are assigned to staff the ride.
2016 was also notably after EVs had proven themselves in the automotive realm. So upgrading to an old technology seems a little inappropriate for “Tomorrowland.” But Honda themselves have been behind the ball on the EV transition as well.
Tomorrowland is the section within Disneyland which was meant to show visions of the future. It first opened in 1955, and offers a time capsule of what a 1950s vision of the future might have looked like.
Needless to say, in the seven decades hence, things have changed somewhat. To the point where the original designer of the Autopia cars, Bob Gurr, who is now 92 and was interviewed by the LA Times, said “get rid of those God-awful gasoline fumes.”
It’s certainly ironic that in California, where EVs keep setting sales records and where you can’t even buy gas-powered “small off-road engines” anymore, a Disneyland parkgoer might drive to the park in a clean EV, only to show their children a vision of the past with a poisonous, low-performing gas engine on one of the admittedly more-fun rides in the park. Just imagine how much more fun the ride could be if it were electric.
And Disney could do a lot more to update Tomorrowland with actual visions of the future, rather than an old-timey time capsule. The original Tomorrowland featured a “Carousel of Progress” show of futuristic efficient home appliances, and the Monorail and PeopleMover which both still exist. Disney could showcase more public transport or other post-car mobility options, ideas for futuristic city planning, induction cooktops and more.
But for now, making Autopia electric seems like incredibly low-hanging fruit. Electric go-karts are nothing new, and while Disney’s commitment to move away from gas in the “next few years” is good to hear, it’s been a long time coming, and now isn’t the time to wait.
To this end, local EV advocates and Plug In America are hosting a “Dump the Pump” rally this Sunday, April 21 at 10am at Walt Disney Studios in Burbank. Not a bad way to spend Earth Day weekend, perhaps after attending one of the LA-area Drive Electric Earth Month events the day before (and one of the founders of Drive Electric Week, Zan Dubin-Scott, is organizing the Burbank rally).
Given Disney’s 2030 net-zero pledge (which is ambitious compared to many companies), it’s about time they ditch gas at Autopia – and not just in the “next few years,” but maybe before next Earth Day rolls around. How about it?
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Another affordable electric car is set to be unveiled later this year as Nissan looks to boost EV sales. Nissan will unveil a new Micra EV as its newest low-cost electric car.
Nissan has been teasing an electric Micra successor for several years now. The new EV was previewed as part of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance.
Over two years ago, the company claimed, “This all-new model will be designed by Nissan and engineered and manufactured by Renault using our new common platform.”
The entry-level EV was part of the Alliance’s plans to invest 23 billion euros ($24.5 billion) over a five-year period to kick off its EV offensive. Nissan unveiled its own business update last month as it looks to cut costs and introduce affordable EVs.
Nissan’s new “Arc” business plan aims for “significant next-generation EV cost reduction” through its partnerships and technology.
The automaker is preparing to launch five new electric cars soon. In November, Nissan revealed an up to £3bn ($3.8B) investment to build three new EVs at its Sunderland factory, including an electric Juke, Qashqai, and its LEAF successor.
Nissan Micra EV to arrive as a new low-cost option
However, Nissan will kick things off with the Micra EV, which will be unveiled later this year. It will be Nissan’s latest low-cost electric car as it looks to satisfy growing demand.
Although Nissan has yet to reveal full details, it’s expected to ride on the same AmpR Small Platform used to power the Renault 5. The Renault features up to 249 miles range from a 52 kWh battery, and the Nissan Micra EV is expected to boast similar numbers.
It could also offer smaller battery options, like 40 kWh, good for 186 miles range, at a lower price point.
According to Auto Express, the Micra EV will be the first of Nissan’s new electric car lineup. The new low-cost EVs’ design is expected to be closer to that of the Ariya, as sources have also indicated with the new LEAF.
Nissan said it aims to reduce the costs of its new electric models by 30% by developing “EVs in families, integrating powertrains, utilizing next-gen manufacturing, group sourcing, and battery innovations.”
The automaker expects that by focusing on these areas, its electric cars will achieve price parity with gas-power vehicles by 2030 (if not sooner).
Nissan also plans to introduce new EV batteries, such as all-solid-state, to gain a competitive advantage. It kicked off construction on its new all-solid-state EV battery pilot line this week.
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