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Official cars are seen outside Grand Hotel Wien after a session of meeting of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on “Iran nuclear deal talks” in Vienna, Austria on May 01, 2021.
Askin Kiyagan | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

A nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran could send energy prices higher — even if it means more supply in the oil markets, according to Goldman Sachs’ head of energy research.

While it appears to be contradictory, a deal that brings Iranian barrels back to the market could actually see oil prices rise, said Damien Courvalin, who is also a senior commodity strategist at the bank.

Talks in Vienna are ongoing as Iran and six world powers — the U.S., China, Russia, France, U.K. and Germany — try to salvage the 2015 landmark deal. Officials say there’s been progress, but it remains unclear when negotiations could conclude and oil prices have been seesawing as a result.

A deal would lift sanctions on Iran and bring Tehran and Washington back to complying with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran which dealt a blow to the Islamic Republic’s oil exports.

If that announcement comes in the next few weeks, in our view, it actually starts that bullish repricing.
Damien Courvalin
head of energy research, Goldman Sachs

Courvalin explained his rationale. He pointed to how oil prices rose in April after OPEC+ said they would gradually raise output from May by adding back 350,000 barrels a day.

“An increase in production … is announced that is above anyone’s expectations — ours included. And yet prices rally, volatility comes down,” he said.

“Why? Because we lifted an uncertainty that was weighing on the market since last year,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” last week.

Investors wondered if OPEC would end up in a price war when it tried to increase production, but the oil cartel presented a “convincing path going forward,” Courvalin said.

“You could argue the same for Iran,” he added. Simply knowing will likely “lift some of that uncertainty.”

“If that announcement comes in the next few weeks, in our view, it actually starts that bullish repricing,” he said at that time.

Opposing views

Other analysts say an agreement could mean lower prices for oil, at least in the short term.

Morgan Stanley said in a research note that an increase in Iranian exports will probably cap Brent crude at $70 per barrel, and expects the international benchmark to trade between $65 and $70 per barrel for the second half of 2021.

Brent crude was lower by 0.13% at $71.22 on Friday in Asia, while U.S. crude futures were down 0.1% at $68.75.

“Our view is that the initial reaction to a potential deal will be a brief sell-off,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told CNBC in an email.

Extra Iranian barrels would be a headwind if a deal materializes, according to Austin Pickle, investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

But softer crude prices may only be temporary.

“We suspect accelerating demand and OPEC+’s disciplined supply response will support oil prices,” Pickle wrote in a note, referring to OPEC and its allies.

PVM Oil Associates expects Brent prices to reach $80 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2021, Varga said.

He also said it will take time before Iran starts to export oil again, and global demand could have improved significantly by the time additional barrels reach the market.

Extra Iranian barrels should only delay price recovery but not throw it off course.
Tamas Varga
analyst, PVM Oil Associates

While the global economic recovery has been uneven — faster in the developed world, compared to the developing world — oil prices will rise more quickly when vaccine rollouts accelerate in Asia, he added.

“Extra Iranian barrels should only delay price recovery but not throw it off course,” Varga said.

S&P Global Platts Analytics has the view that there is room to accommodate Iranian and OPEC+ oil supply growth in the third quarter.

Toward year-end, however, energy prices could come under pressure as Iran exports and U.S. oil production increase, said Nareeka Ahir, a geopolitical analyst at S&P. She said Brent could fall to the mid or low $60s in late 2021 into 2022.

Supply may lag demand

Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude prices rising at a faster pace, and predicts the international benchmark could hit $80 by the third quarter of this year.

Courvalin noted that Asia’s oil demand has been revised lower due to new waves of the virus, and that has been been offset by upside surprises in the U.S. and Europe.

“It really paints a picture where, once vaccination rates progress sufficiently, you really see pent-up mobility get unleashed, and a significant increase in oil demand,” he said. “That’s … the root of the bullish view.”

He said supply will likely lag the pop in demand, and there will be “plenty of room” to absorb oil from Iran.

“In fact, if you told me Iran’s not coming back, our $80 dollar forecast is way too low relative to where the oil market is heading by 2022,” he added.

Concerns over an Iran deal and the pandemic may have “masked a fast-tightening oil market,” Courvalin said.

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Crypto super PAC Fairshake has $116 million on hand to grow industry’s influence in 2026 election

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Crypto super PAC Fairshake has 6 million on hand to grow industry's influence in 2026 election

Trump's crypto executive order paves the way for a digital asset stockpile

Fairshake, the super PAC bankrolled by crypto’s biggest players, announced Thursday it has $116 million in cash on hand, a war chest aimed at the 2026 midterm election cycle.

The fundraising total, which includes $11 million in new contributions, cements Fairshake as one of the most influential political forces in the country.

“With the midterms on the horizon, we are poised to continue backing candidates committed to advancing innovation, growing jobs, and enacting thoughtful, responsible regulation,” Fairshake said in a statement.

Major backers like Coinbase, a16z, Jump Crypto, Uniswap Labs, and Ripple Labs have doubled down on their commitment to electing pro-crypto candidates and opposing those seen as hostile to the industry. Robert Leshner of Superstate has also donated, according to the PAC.

Crypto, once dismissed as a speculative frenzy, now holds real power in President Donald Trump’s Washington. Industry-backed officials are securing spots in the president’s cabinet and across federal agencies. Lawmakers aligned with digital assets are launching probes into regulators accused of stifling innovation.

Read more CNBC tech news

With Trump’s return to the White House and a Republican-controlled Congress, the industry is moving beyond just playing defense. Crypto-friendly policymakers are setting the agenda — working to reverse SEC enforcement actions, roll back anti-crypto banking restrictions, and push through market structure legislation for digital assets.

Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, was sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission over claims that it engaged in unregistered sales of securities. It’s among Fairshake’s top contributors, giving more than $75 million to Fairshake and its affiliated PACs in 2024 and committing another $25 million to the 2026 midterms.

Fairshake’s largest donors also include Silicon Valley venture fund Andreessen Horowitz, which had previously pledged another $23 million to the PAC in the midterms. The fund has contributed $70 million across multiple cycles. Ripple Labs, still battling the SEC in court, is another major political donor this cycle that has given around $50 million to Fairshake. A spokesperson said the company committed $25 million both this year and last year and intends to remain a strong force in D.C. for years to come.

The impact of this money extends beyond elections. With billions in market cap and tens of millions in lobbying power, the crypto industry has positioned itself alongside Wall Street, Big Tech, and the defense sector as one of the most formidable forces in Washington. The strategy is clear: Secure allies, neutralize threats, and lock in legislative wins that will define the industry’s future.

Coinbase's top lawyer breaks down SAB121 rollback and the firm's talks with the Trump Administration

The 2024 election

For crypto executives, investors, and evangelists, the 2024 election wasn’t just about influence — it was existential. After four years of fighting to establish legitimacy while fending off regulatory crackdowns, the industry saw it as a chance to flip the script.

Crypto-related PACs and affiliated groups pulled in over $245 million for the 2024 election cycle, according to Federal Election Commission data. Nearly half of all corporate dollars that flowed into the election came from the crypto industry, per nonprofit watchdog Public Citizen.

Stand With Crypto Alliance — the advocacy group launched by Coinbase last year — developed a grading system for House and Senate races, helping direct funds to the most pivotal battlegrounds.

They succeeded. According to Stand With Crypto, nearly 300 pro-crypto lawmakers comprise the House and Senate this session, giving the industry unprecedented sway over the legislative agenda.

The playbook for the push was simple: Raise massive sums from a handful of donors, flood battleground states with ads, and either boost pro-crypto candidates or bury their opponents. The campaign framed races in stark terms. Candidates were either with the industry or against it.

Crypto companies and executives moved fast, leveraging a sophisticated nationwide ad machine to deploy their cash with precision. They also took lessons from Big Tech’s missteps. Instead of spending hundreds of millions on lobbying after the election, the crypto industry invested heavily beforehand, ensuring that its biggest threats never made it to office in the first place.

Goldman Sachs to continue to scale tokenization efforts, says Mathew McDermott

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Toyota is still the world’s top automaker, but with EV sales at just 1%, how long will it last?

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Toyota is still the world's top automaker, but with EV sales at just 1%, how long will it last?

Toyota maintained its title as the world’s top-selling automaker, with nearly 11 million vehicles sold in 2024. However, EV sales accounted for about 1% of Toyota’s global volume as it continued to lag the industry. With rivals like BYD and Hyundai closing in, how long can Toyota keep its spot at the top?

Toyota EV sales continued lagging in 2024 at only 1%

Toyota held onto the title for the fifth straight year after selling over 10.8 million vehicles in 2024. That includes its Daihatsu (compact cars), Hino (heavy-duty trucks and buses), and luxury Lexus brands.

Although it was enough to stay ahead of Volkswagen, which sold just over 9 million vehicles last year (-2.3% from 2023), Toyota’s global sales slipped for the first time in two years. The Japanese auto giant’s sales fell 3.7% from the roughly 11.2 million vehicles sold in 2023.

Toyota and Lexus brand sales were down 1.4% from 2023, at about 10.1 million units, also the first year-over-year decline in two years.

The lower total was mostly due to a 20% drop in domestic sales. Incorrect vehicle certifications caused Toyota to halt production of the popular Prius, Yaris Cross, and Corolla Fielder models.

Toyota-EV-sales-2024
2024 Toyota bZ4X Limited AWD (Source: Toyota)

Overseas sales helped offset the fallout with higher demand in North America and India. In other key markets, like China (-6.9%), Indonesia (-9.5%), and Thailand (-17.1%), Toyota said “the shift to new energy vehicles” and an “intensifying price competition” caused the lower sales total.

Despite hybrids reaching a record 40% share in 2024, Toyota’s EV sales lagged the industry. Last year, Toyota, including Lexus, sold just 139,892 pure EV models, accounting for just 1.4% of sales.

Toyota-EV-sales-2024
2025 Lexus RZ 450e (Source: Lexus)

Volkswagen sold nearly 745,000 electric vehicles last year, or around 8% of sales, which is still on the lower end. And that’s down 3.4% from the 771,100 VW delivered in 2023.

While the two global auto leaders continue to lag in the shift to electric vehicles, others, such as BYD and Hyundai, are emerging as true global threats.

BYD-EV-sales-Toyota
BYD Atto 3 (left) and Dolphin (right) EVs in Japan (Source: BYD)

BYD outsold Nissan and Honda for the first time last year, with over 4.25 million passenger vehicles sold, up 41% from around 3 million in 2023. The Chinese EV leader surpassed Volkswagen in 2023 to become China’s largest car maker, and now it’s moving up the global ranks.

Hyundai Motor Group, the third top-selling automaker globally, sold over 7.2 million vehicles last year. Although sales were down 1% from 2023, Hyundai is closing the gap with Toyota and Volkswagen. The Hyundai and Kia brands both sold over 200,000 electric cars globally last year for an around.

Hyundai-Kia-electric-vehicles
Hyundai IONIQ 9 (Source: Hyundai)

Hyundai and Kia are launching several new EVs in key segments that are expected to see significant demand, including the three-row IONIQ 9 and low-cost Kia EV3 and Hyundai Inster SUVs.

Electrek’s Take

With new threats emerging, how long will Toyota hold onto the global sales lead? BYD is aggressively expanding overseas this year, with electric cars rolling out across nearly every segment, including entry-level pickup trucks, smart SUVs, luxury models, and electric supercars.

BYD sold more EVs in Japan than Toyota last year, its home market, and 2024 was BYD’s first full sales year in the country.

Hyundai is also preparing for a big year in 2025 with the updated 2025 IONIQ 5, IONIQ 9, and Inster EV arriving. Kia expects sales growth this year with the low-cost EV3 rolling out globally. Later this year, it will unveil the EV4, its highly anticipated entry-level electric sedan.

Meanwhile, Toyota continues delaying new EV launches and other major projects. Its long-awaited ultra-efficient EVs, expected next year, will not arrive until at least mid-2027.

With the industry moving toward all-electric vehicles, how long can Toyota delay the inevitable? As EV technology advances, hybrids will only be in style for much longer.

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UK backtracks on plans to double the power of electric bikes

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UK backtracks on plans to double the power of electric bikes

If it sounded too good to be true, that’s because it was. A proposal made last year to double the allowable power limit of electric bicycles in the UK was canceled after pushback on the plan.

Current laws in the UK are similar to those throughout most of Europe, limiting electric bicycles to 250 watts (1/3 hp) and 25 km/h (15.5 mph) of top speed.

A proposal put forth by the Conservatives would have seen that power limit doubled to 500W in the UK, and potentially also allowed for the use of a hand throttle, according to Bike Radar.

After the Department for Transport began a public consultation to assess public opinion, it became clear that while the general public had mixed feelings, most bicycling organizations were largely in favor of keeping the existing regulations unchanged.

“While the difference between the overall number of respondents being in favour and those not in favour was relatively small, this was not the case with main stakeholder organisations, with the vast majority opposing the proposals,” the Department for Transport explained. 

While European electric bicycle laws are relatively strict, limiting electric bicycle motors to less power than a healthy adult can generate with their own legs, North American e-bike laws are generally less restrictive.

In Canada, electric bicycles can support up to 500W of power and feature hand throttles that allow the e-bikes to be powered even without pedaling. In the US, the vast majority of states have adopted the three-class system, which allows all electric bicycles to support motors of up to 750W of power, or three times the European limit. Hand throttles are also allowed on some electric bikes, but the specifics can vary from state to state. The subject of speed, as well as hand throttles on e-bikes, has become a contentious subject in the US with increased regulatory activity.

In much of Europe, bicycles and e-bikes are seen as more integrated members of the larger public transportation system. In North America, cities are much more car-centric and often even hostile to cyclists.

While not all European cyclists enjoy the utopia of Amsterdam’s bicycle-friendly streets, most European cities are more likely to feature better-developed cycling infrastructure that lets cyclists safely travel at slower speeds. Conversely, many American riders feel that higher speeds and motor power levels are essential for their safety when sharing the roads with cars, as higher performance allows riders to better pace existing vehicle traffic.

Regulations don’t just dictate how powerful an e-bike can be, but rather they can also shape how e-bikes are used in daily life. In Europe, where most e-bikes are capped at 250W and 25 km/h (15 mph), more emphasis is placed on pedal-assisted cycling, encouraging active riding while offering a boost for longer trips.

Many cities in Europe have extensive bike lane networks that accommodate e-bikes alongside traditional bicycles, reinforcing the idea that e-bikes are simply a modernized version of cycling rather than a separate vehicle class.

In North America, where 750W e-bikes are common and Class 3 e-bikes can reach 28 mph (45 km/h), the riding experience can sometimes be closer to that of a moped. While many riders enjoy this broader freedom, it has caused friction in many cities who seek to rein in higher performance electric bikes.

At the same time, higher power limits and throttle-assist features can make e-bikes more attractive for recreational riders, commuters, and even delivery workers, especially in cities where bike lanes are scarce. This has contributed to a wider diversity of e-bike styles in North America, from fat-tire adventure bikes to powerful cargo e-bikes capable of carrying heavier loads.

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