Goldman says a nuclear deal with Iran could send oil prices higher. Not everyone agrees

Published

4 years ago

June 7, 2021

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Official cars are seen outside Grand Hotel Wien after a session of meeting of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on “Iran nuclear deal talks” in Vienna, Austria on May 01, 2021.

Askin Kiyagan | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

A nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran could send energy prices higher — even if it means more supply in the oil markets, according to Goldman Sachs’ head of energy research.

While it appears to be contradictory, a deal that brings Iranian barrels back to the market could actually see oil prices rise, said Damien Courvalin, who is also a senior commodity strategist at the bank.

Talks in Vienna are ongoing as Iran and six world powers — the U.S., China, Russia, France, U.K. and Germany — try to salvage the 2015 landmark deal. Officials say there’s been progress, but it remains unclear when negotiations could conclude and oil prices have been seesawing as a result.

A deal would lift sanctions on Iran and bring Tehran and Washington back to complying with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran which dealt a blow to the Islamic Republic’s oil exports.

If that announcement comes in the next few weeks, in our view, it actually starts that bullish repricing.

Damien Courvalin

head of energy research, Goldman Sachs

Courvalin explained his rationale. He pointed to how oil prices rose in April after OPEC+ said they would gradually raise output from May by adding back 350,000 barrels a day.

“An increase in production … is announced that is above anyone’s expectations — ours included. And yet prices rally, volatility comes down,” he said.

“Why? Because we lifted an uncertainty that was weighing on the market since last year,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” last week.

Investors wondered if OPEC would end up in a price war when it tried to increase production, but the oil cartel presented a “convincing path going forward,” Courvalin said.

“You could argue the same for Iran,” he added. Simply knowing will likely “lift some of that uncertainty.”

“If that announcement comes in the next few weeks, in our view, it actually starts that bullish repricing,” he said at that time.

Opposing views

Other analysts say an agreement could mean lower prices for oil, at least in the short term.

Morgan Stanley said in a research note that an increase in Iranian exports will probably cap Brent crude at $70 per barrel, and expects the international benchmark to trade between $65 and $70 per barrel for the second half of 2021.

Brent crude was lower by 0.13% at $71.22 on Friday in Asia, while U.S. crude futures were down 0.1% at $68.75.

“Our view is that the initial reaction to a potential deal will be a brief sell-off,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told CNBC in an email.

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Extra Iranian barrels would be a headwind if a deal materializes, according to Austin Pickle, investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

But softer crude prices may only be temporary.

“We suspect accelerating demand and OPEC+’s disciplined supply response will support oil prices,” Pickle wrote in a note, referring to OPEC and its allies.

PVM Oil Associates expects Brent prices to reach $80 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2021, Varga said.

He also said it will take time before Iran starts to export oil again, and global demand could have improved significantly by the time additional barrels reach the market.

Extra Iranian barrels should only delay price recovery but not throw it off course.

Tamas Varga

analyst, PVM Oil Associates

While the global economic recovery has been uneven — faster in the developed world, compared to the developing world — oil prices will rise more quickly when vaccine rollouts accelerate in Asia, he added.

“Extra Iranian barrels should only delay price recovery but not throw it off course,” Varga said.

S&P Global Platts Analytics has the view that there is room to accommodate Iranian and OPEC+ oil supply growth in the third quarter.

Toward year-end, however, energy prices could come under pressure as Iran exports and U.S. oil production increase, said Nareeka Ahir, a geopolitical analyst at S&P. She said Brent could fall to the mid or low $60s in late 2021 into 2022.

Supply may lag demand

Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude prices rising at a faster pace, and predicts the international benchmark could hit $80 by the third quarter of this year.

Courvalin noted that Asia’s oil demand has been revised lower due to new waves of the virus, and that has been been offset by upside surprises in the U.S. and Europe.

“It really paints a picture where, once vaccination rates progress sufficiently, you really see pent-up mobility get unleashed, and a significant increase in oil demand,” he said. “That’s … the root of the bullish view.”

He said supply will likely lag the pop in demand, and there will be “plenty of room” to absorb oil from Iran.

“In fact, if you told me Iran’s not coming back, our $80 dollar forecast is way too low relative to where the oil market is heading by 2022,” he added.

Concerns over an Iran deal and the pandemic may have “masked a fast-tightening oil market,” Courvalin said.

Environment

Ford slashes F-150 Lightning prices by up to $4,000 and bumps up the range

Published

3 hours ago

October 14, 2025

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Ford slashes F-150 Lightning prices by up to ,000 and bumps up the range

Ford is cutting prices on the electric pickup by up to $4,000 to offset the loss of the federal EV tax credit. The 2026 Ford F-150 Lightning now offers more driving range at a lower price.

2026 Ford F-150 Lightning prices and range by trim

After the Tesla Cybertruck took the title as America’s best-selling electric pickup last year, the Ford F-150 Lightning is back on top in 2025.

Ford sold over 10,000 Lightnings in the third quarter, nearly double the roughly 5,400 Tesla Cybertrucks sold. Through September, Ford has sold over 23,000 electric pickups. According to Cox Automotive, Tesla has only sold 16,097 Cybertrucks this year, 38% fewer than it did during the same period in 2024.

After the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired at the end of September, many automakers, including Ford, are bracing for less demand.

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To keep the momentum going, Ford is reducing prices for the 2026 F-150 Lightning by up to $4,000. Company spokesperson Martin Günsberg confirmed with Electrek that Ford is cutting prices on the flash trim by $4,000 and the Lariat by $2,000.

Ford-2026-F-150-Lightning-prices — The 2026 Ford F-150 Lightning STX (Source: Ford)

Ford introduced a new base STX model that replaces the XLT for 2026. The 2026 Ford F-150 Lightning STX starts at $63,345, the same as the 2025 STX, but it delivers an extra 50 miles of driving range.

A 123 kW extended range battery powers the STX, providing an EPA estimated 290 miles of range. In comparison, the XLT delivered 240 miles of range from a 98 kWh battery.

Ford-F-150-Lightning-STX-interior — The interior of the 2026 Ford F-150 Lightning STX (Source: Ford)

Ford also raided the F-150 parts bin to add a few off-road goodies like running boards from the Tremor, new wheels, and more.

The 2026 F-150 Lightning Flash will start at $65,995, down from $69,995. Meanwhile, the 2026 Lariat and Platinum trims will be priced from $74,995 and $84,995.

Ford F-150 Lightning trim	2025 Starting Price	2026 Starting Price	Range (EPA-est miles)
XLT	$63,345	N/A	240
STX	N/A	$63,345	290
Flash	$69,995	$65,995	320
Lariat	$76,995	$74,995	320
Platinum	$84,995	$84,995	300

2025 and 2026 Ford F-150 Lightning prices and range by trim (excluding destination fee)

Although Ford decided not to move forward with plans for a program to extend the $7,500 EV tax credit, the company is still offering significant incentives to compensate for the loss of it.

The 2025 Ford F-150 Lighting STX is eligible for up to $11,500 in savings in California and other ZEV states. Ford is offering a $9,000 lease cash bonus and an additional $2,000 Ford Power Promise cash bonus. Alternatively, Ford is offering 0% APR financing for 72 months plus an extra $2,000 Power Promise bonus nationwide.

With the 2026 Lightning arriving, Ford is offering big savings on 2025 models. The 2025 F-150 Lightning XLT is currently listed for lease as low as $279 per month in California. You can use our link to find offers on the Ford F-150 Lightning near you (trusted affiliate link).

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Environment

US, Europe, and China drive global EV boom to record highs

Published

4 hours ago

October 14, 2025

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US, Europe, and China drive global EV boom to record highs

Global EV sales passed the 2 million mark for the first time in September 2025, according to new data from EV research house Rho Motion – here’s how it breaks down.

A record-breaking September

Rho Motion’s data shows that 2.1 million EVs were sold worldwide in September, the highest monthly total ever recorded. The US, UK, South Korea, and China all hit major milestones, with tax credit deadlines, new registration cycles, and local incentives fueling the global boom.

“Global EV sales topped 2 million units in a single month for the first time, driven by record-breaking demand across major markets,” said Rho Motion’s data manager Charles Lester. “The US surged ahead as buyers raced to claim expiring tax credits, the UK hit new highs on the back of fresh registration plates and the Electric Car Grant, and South Korea set records thanks to Tesla, Hyundai, Kia, and rising BYD imports. Year to date, EV sales have reached 14.7 million – up 26%.”

EV sales by the numbers YTD (Jan–Sept 2025)

Global: 14.7 million (+26%)
China: 9.0 million (+24%)
Europe: 3.0 million (+32%)
North America: 1.5 million (+11%)
Rest of World: 1.2 million (+48%)

Europe surges on incentives

Europe had a record-breaking month with 427,000 EVs sold, up 36% year-over-year and 55% from August. The UK led the charge with record demand tied to the launch of new license plates and the government’s Electric Car Grant, introduced in July. BEV sales rose 30% year-over-year, while PHEVs jumped nearly 60%.

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Germany’s EV market is expected to get another boost in 2026 after the government approved a new €3 billion ($3.5 billion) incentive package targeting low- and middle-income households. It replaces the subsidy scheme that expired in December 2023. Italy and Spain also continue to see strong growth, with sales up two-thirds and more than double, respectively, compared to 2024.

US buyers rushed to beat tax credit deadlines

In North America, EV sales soared 66% year-over-year in September as US consumers scrambled to take advantage of federal incentives before they expired on September 30. The tax credits supported both purchases and leases.

But Rho Motion expects Q4 2025 demand to dip sharply as those credits disappear. Some automakers are already taking defensive steps: Hyundai has cut prices, while Mercedes-Benz has paused production of four EV models. GM has suspended a production shift at its Spring Hill, Tennessee, plant, and Volkswagen is stopping ID.4 production in Tennessee in October. Nissan has gone further, scrapping its plans to manufacture EVs in the US altogether.

China is the world’s EV powerhouse

China still dominates the global EV market, selling 1.3 million EVs in September, a record-breaking month powered by strong BEV demand. Pure-electric sales rose 28% year-over-year to 800,000 units, while PHEVs and range-extended EVs dipped by 2% to 470,000.

China has sold nearly 9 million EVs YTD, up 24% from 2024, cementing its position as the world’s largest and most mature EV market.

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Environment

First-ever Jeep extended range EV, Mazda gets in the price war, and antique hybrids

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4 hours ago

October 14, 2025

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First-ever Jeep extended range EV, Mazda gets in the price war, and antique hybrids

On today’s hyped up hybrid episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got the first extended range electric Jeep in North America – the 500-mile new Grand Wagoneer PLUS news that Mazda is getting into the plug-in price war, and a whole lot more.

Today’s episode is brought to you by Climate XChange, a nonpartisan nonprofit working to help states pass effective, equitable climate policies. The nonprofit just kicked off its 10th annual EV raffle, where participants have multiple opportunities to win their dream model. Visit CarbonRaffle.org/Electrek to learn more.

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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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