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Official cars are seen outside Grand Hotel Wien after a session of meeting of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on “Iran nuclear deal talks” in Vienna, Austria on May 01, 2021.
Askin Kiyagan | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

A nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran could send energy prices higher — even if it means more supply in the oil markets, according to Goldman Sachs’ head of energy research.

While it appears to be contradictory, a deal that brings Iranian barrels back to the market could actually see oil prices rise, said Damien Courvalin, who is also a senior commodity strategist at the bank.

Talks in Vienna are ongoing as Iran and six world powers — the U.S., China, Russia, France, U.K. and Germany — try to salvage the 2015 landmark deal. Officials say there’s been progress, but it remains unclear when negotiations could conclude and oil prices have been seesawing as a result.

A deal would lift sanctions on Iran and bring Tehran and Washington back to complying with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran which dealt a blow to the Islamic Republic’s oil exports.

If that announcement comes in the next few weeks, in our view, it actually starts that bullish repricing.
Damien Courvalin
head of energy research, Goldman Sachs

Courvalin explained his rationale. He pointed to how oil prices rose in April after OPEC+ said they would gradually raise output from May by adding back 350,000 barrels a day.

“An increase in production … is announced that is above anyone’s expectations — ours included. And yet prices rally, volatility comes down,” he said.

“Why? Because we lifted an uncertainty that was weighing on the market since last year,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” last week.

Investors wondered if OPEC would end up in a price war when it tried to increase production, but the oil cartel presented a “convincing path going forward,” Courvalin said.

“You could argue the same for Iran,” he added. Simply knowing will likely “lift some of that uncertainty.”

“If that announcement comes in the next few weeks, in our view, it actually starts that bullish repricing,” he said at that time.

Opposing views

Other analysts say an agreement could mean lower prices for oil, at least in the short term.

Morgan Stanley said in a research note that an increase in Iranian exports will probably cap Brent crude at $70 per barrel, and expects the international benchmark to trade between $65 and $70 per barrel for the second half of 2021.

Brent crude was lower by 0.13% at $71.22 on Friday in Asia, while U.S. crude futures were down 0.1% at $68.75.

“Our view is that the initial reaction to a potential deal will be a brief sell-off,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told CNBC in an email.

Extra Iranian barrels would be a headwind if a deal materializes, according to Austin Pickle, investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

But softer crude prices may only be temporary.

“We suspect accelerating demand and OPEC+’s disciplined supply response will support oil prices,” Pickle wrote in a note, referring to OPEC and its allies.

PVM Oil Associates expects Brent prices to reach $80 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2021, Varga said.

He also said it will take time before Iran starts to export oil again, and global demand could have improved significantly by the time additional barrels reach the market.

Extra Iranian barrels should only delay price recovery but not throw it off course.
Tamas Varga
analyst, PVM Oil Associates

While the global economic recovery has been uneven — faster in the developed world, compared to the developing world — oil prices will rise more quickly when vaccine rollouts accelerate in Asia, he added.

“Extra Iranian barrels should only delay price recovery but not throw it off course,” Varga said.

S&P Global Platts Analytics has the view that there is room to accommodate Iranian and OPEC+ oil supply growth in the third quarter.

Toward year-end, however, energy prices could come under pressure as Iran exports and U.S. oil production increase, said Nareeka Ahir, a geopolitical analyst at S&P. She said Brent could fall to the mid or low $60s in late 2021 into 2022.

Supply may lag demand

Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude prices rising at a faster pace, and predicts the international benchmark could hit $80 by the third quarter of this year.

Courvalin noted that Asia’s oil demand has been revised lower due to new waves of the virus, and that has been been offset by upside surprises in the U.S. and Europe.

“It really paints a picture where, once vaccination rates progress sufficiently, you really see pent-up mobility get unleashed, and a significant increase in oil demand,” he said. “That’s … the root of the bullish view.”

He said supply will likely lag the pop in demand, and there will be “plenty of room” to absorb oil from Iran.

“In fact, if you told me Iran’s not coming back, our $80 dollar forecast is way too low relative to where the oil market is heading by 2022,” he added.

Concerns over an Iran deal and the pandemic may have “masked a fast-tightening oil market,” Courvalin said.

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Kia’s EV sales surged to a new record in the US with affordable, long-range models

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Kia's EV sales surged to a new record in the US with affordable, long-range models

Kia’s EV sales in the US doubled in the first half of the year, hitting a new record. After selling over 5,000 EVs for the third straight month, Kia looks to keep the momentum going in the second half of 2024.

Kia’s EV sales hit new record in first half of 2024

Kia is on a roll in the US with affordable, long-range models like the three-row EV9 and EV6, reaching buyers.

After a record-breaking month in May, with EV sales doubling, Kia hit a new record with 29,392 electric cars sold in the first half of 2024.

Kia sold over 5,000 EVs for the third straight month in June, with 1,905 EV9s and 2,171 EV6s sold.

After deliveries kicked off in December, sales of Kia’s three-row EV9 electric SUV reached 9,671 through the first half of the year. Kia kicked off EV9 production in Georgia in May as the first EV built in the state.

Starting under $55,000 (excluding destination fee), Kia calls the EV9 a “wake-up call” to the industry. With the $7,500 federal tax credit, prices fall to as low as $48,995. The long-range EV9 gets up to 320 miles range, starting at $60,695.

Kia EV9 Trim

MSRP
(including $1,495
destination fee)
Price after potential
$7,500 EV tax credit
(including $1,495
destination fee)
EPA Est. Range
(miles)
Light RWD $56,395 $48,995 230
Light Long
Range RWD
$60,695 $53,195 304
Wind e-AWD $65,395 $57,895 280
Land e-AWD $71,395 $63,895 280
GT-Line e-AWD $73,900 $66,400 270
2024 Kia EV9 trim prices and range

Meanwhile, Kia sold 10,941 EV6 models, up from 8,328 at this time last year. The company does not provide a breakdown for Niro EV sales, but it sold at least 924, with over 5K EVs sold last month.

Kia’s EV6 is one of the most affordable and fuel-efficient EVs in the US. The 2024 Kia EV6 starts at just $42,600. For the Light Long Range RWD EV6 with up to 310 miles range, price start at $45,950.

.

2024 Kia EV6 trim Starting Price Range (EPA)
Light RWD $42,600 232 mi
Light Long Range RWD $45,950 310 mi
Light Long Range AWD $49,850 282 mi
Wind RWD $48,700 310 mi
Wind AWD $52,600 282 mi
GT-Line RWD $52,900 310 mi
GT-Line AWD $57,600 252 mi
GT AWD $61,600 218 mi
2024 Kia EV6 prices and range by trim

The growth comes as Kia’s new low-cost EV3 is already off to a hot start in its domestic market.

After opening orders last month in Korea, starting at $30,700 (KRW 42.08 million), Kia’s EV3 has already secured over 10,000 reservations.

Kia-EV-sales-record
Kia EV9 interior (Source: Kia)

Meanwhile, massive new incentives allow you to save up to $12,800 on select EV6 leases in the US.

Have you been eyeing Kia’s new electric vehicles? We can help you find the perfect model at the right price. You can use our links below to find deals on Kia’s EVs at a dealer near you.

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Rivian (RIVN) deliveries remain flat in Q2 ahead of planned production ramp in H2 2024

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Rivian (RIVN) deliveries remain flat in Q2 ahead of planned production ramp in H2 2024

Electric vehicle maker Rivian (RIVN) delivered nearly 13,800 EVs in the second quarter of 2024. Although Q2 deliveries remained flat from Q1, Rivian plans to ramp up output in the second half of 2024. Here’s what to expect.

Rivian releases Q2 2024 deliveries

Rivian delivered 13,790 vehicles in Q2, up slightly from the 13,588 handed over in the first three months of 2024. However, it’s down from the 13,972 delivered in Q4 2024.

The slowdown was expected as Rivian shut down its Normal, IL manufacturing plant for upgrades. Rivian expected Q2 deliveries to be in the 13,000 to 13,300 range.

Rivian says the changes will significantly reduce costs while boosting efficiency. In other words, Rivian will be able to get vehicles out quicker, at a lower cost.

CEO RJ Scaringe has already warned investors that the second quarter could be “messy” amid the plant shutdown.

Rivian produced 9,612 vehicles in Q2, down from 13,980 in Q1 and 17,541 in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, it was enough to top its guidance of 9,100 to 9,300 units.

Rivian-deliveries-Q2
Rivian R1T (left) and R1S (right) electric vehicles (Source: Rivian)

Meanwhile, Rivian said it remains on track to hit its 57,000 production goal in 2024. Rivian will release its Q2 financial results on August 6, 2024, after the market closes.

During its first Investor Day last week, Rivian gave us a glimpse into the EV maker’s future. Rivian reaffirmed it expects its first gross profit in Q4 2024.

Rivian-deliveries-Q2
Rivian’s next-gen R2, R3, and R3X (Source: Rivian)

Rivian’s stock surged following a new partnership with Volkswagen. The new pact earned Rivian new backing from several analysts, including Dan Ives from Wedbush. Ives said the VW deal could “change the game for Rivian” as it strives for its first profit.

Looking further out, Rivian’s next-gen R2 is expected to significantly expand its market. Following the R2 launch in early 2026, Rivian expects production capacity to reach 215,000, up from 150,000 currently.

The R2 will account for 155,000, while R1T and R1S are expected at 85,000. Rivian’s commercial van will account for the remaining 65,000.

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Tesla (TSLA) announces Q2 deliveries: beat expectations

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Tesla (TSLA) announces Q2 deliveries: beat expectations

Tesla (TSLA) has officially released its Q2 2024 delivery and production results. The automaker confirmed having delivered 444,000 electric vehicles last quarter.

Tesla Q2 expectations

Wall Street has adjusted its expectation this quarter to a consensus of about 438,000 deliveries, which is down from the 466,000 vehicles Tesla delivered during the same period in 2023.

As we reported last week, the expectation came down over the last few days after they were at ~450,000 deliveries last week.

Tesla Q2 results

Tesla confirmed that it produced 411,000 vehicles and delivered 444,000 vehicles – beating expectations by a slight margin:

In the second quarter, we produced approximately 411,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles. We deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, the highest quarterly deployment yet.

For the first time in a while, Tesla delivered more vehicles than it produced, but that’s partly because tens of thousands of vehicles were in transit at the end of last quarter.

Tesla still doesn’t break down sales by models. It bundles Model 3 and Y together and all other vehicles in the same “other models” category:

Models Production Deliveries Subject to operating lease accounting
Model 3/Y 386,576 422,405 2%
Other Models 24,255 21,551 1%
Total 410,831 443,956 2%

Tesla also released its energy storage deployment, which was exceptionally high at 9.4 GWh this quarter.

That’s not only a new record, but more than twice the amount deployed in the last record quarter.

Tesla’s stock (TSLA) is up 5% on the news.

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