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Seldom has a ruling by the Speaker of the House of Commons been so eagerly anticipated by MPs.

During the Brexit wars of a couple of years ago, pro-Remain John Bercow could be relied upon to deliver rulings to cause maximum turmoil and embarrassment for the government.

Sir Lindsay Hoyle is a much less partisan figure, however, and when he has to made a tricky or controversial ruling he relies on the advice of the Commons clerks and legal bods. Mr Bercow used to overrule them.

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PM avoids Tory rebellion over foreign aid

So when he had to rule on Tory MP Andrew Mitchell’s bid to use a piece of legislation on science research to reverse Boris Johnson’s overseas aid cut, cricket fan Sir Lindsay played a straight bat.

It wasn’t in order, he declared, to almost no-one’s surprise.

What was more surprising was Sir Lindsay’s angry attack on the government at the end of his ruling. From straight bat to bowling the prime minister a hostile bouncer.

First he encouraged Mr Mitchell and his supporters to apply for an emergency debate on the aid cut, which he duly did and now MPs will have three hours to attack the government. A free hit for the PM’s critics.

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Then he rounded off his statement with some furious finger pointing at the government frontbench as he bluntly ordered ministers to hold a vote on the aid cut without delay – or he’d connive with MPs to find a way to hold one.

“I wish and hope, very quickly, that this is taken on board,” the normally cheery Sir Lindsay warned, his lip curling with disdain for the government’s attempts to dodge a vote.

“I don’t want this to drag on,” he said. “If not, we will then look to find other ways in which we can move forward.”

Andrew Mitchell MP
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MP Andrew Mitchell has been leading efforts to reverse the cut in overseas aid

Then when Sir Lindsay’s deputy, Nigel Evans, tested support for Mr Mitchell’s application for an emergency debate, no-one rose to their feet quicker than former prime minister Theresa May, who was seated just a few rows further forward.

She was one of around 30 Conservative MPs who had put their names to the Mitchell new clause to the Advanced Research and Invention Agency Bill, a Dominic Cummings legacy, no less. What an ironic twist.

The Tory rebels included old bruisers like David Davis and Sir Edward Leigh, but cabinet ministers from the May years like Jeremy Hunt and Damian Green and MPs from both the Brexit and Remain wings of the party.

In his response to Sir Lindsay’s ruling and then in his bid for an emergency debate, Mr Mitchell claimed that had the vote gone ahead he would have won by nine or possibly 20 votes. He reminded MPs, of course, that he is a former chief whip.

Really? That assumes all the Conservative MPs who put their names to his new clause would have trooped into the Aye lobby with Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP. Would Mrs May – victim of dozens of bruising rebellions as PM – go that far?

She has form for voicing her objection to a Boris Johnson policy and then absenting herself from a vote, no doubt because of a pressing engagement elsewhere.

Former prime ministers tend not to rebel, with the exception of Ted Heath during the Thatcher years. Not for nothing was he known as “the incredible sulk”.

Talking of ex-prime ministers, the Tories’ 0.7% aid spending pledge is a legacy of David Cameron’s time as Tory leader.

It was even written into law in 2015, as Sir Lindsay reminded MPs. That’s presumably why Mr Cameron’s former bag-carrier Sir Desmond Swayne was among the rebels.

Not that they would accept that they’re rebels. Since 0.7% was a Tory manifesto pledge, they’ve claimed throughout this row that they’re the loyalists.

Not sure that’s how the current chief whip, the burly, ruddy-faced Nottinghamshire farmer Mark Spencer, would see it.

With Mr Mitchell’s new clause ruled out of order, the debate that followed was a dismal anti-climax.

But hostilities will resume in the emergency debate and if and when the government brings forward a proper vote on the aid cut.

Sir Lindsay will no doubt continue to play a straight bat. But his mood suggests he is growing tired of the prime minister dodging the umpire’s rulings.

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Budget 2025: Reeves vows to ‘defy’ gloomy forecasts – but faces income tax warning

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Budget 2025: Reeves vows to 'defy' gloomy forecasts - but faces income tax warning

Rachel Reeves has said she is determined to “defy” forecasts that suggest she will face a multibillion-pound black hole in next month’s budget, but has indicated there are some tough choices on the way.

Writing in The Guardian, the chancellor argued the “foundations of Britain’s economy remain strong” – and rejected claims the country is in a permanent state of decline.

Reports have suggested the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its productivity growth forecast by about 0.3 percentage points.

Rachel Reeves. PA file pic
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Rachel Reeves. PA file pic

That means the Treasury will take in less tax than expected over the coming years – and this could leave a gap of up to £40bn in the country’s finances.

Ms Reeves wrote she would not “pre-empt” these forecasts, and her job “is not to relitigate the past or let past mistakes determine our future”.

“I am determined that we don’t simply accept the forecasts, but we defy them, as we already have this year. To do so means taking necessary choices today, including at the budget next month,” the chancellor added.

She also pointed to five interest rate cuts, three trade deals with major economies and wages outpacing inflation as evidence Labour has made progress since the election.

Speculation is growing that Ms Reeves may break a key manifesto pledge by raising income tax or national insurance during the budget on 26 November.

Read more from Sky News:
What tax rises could Reeves announce?
Start-ups warn chancellor over budget bombshell

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Chancellor faces tough budget choices

Budget decisions ‘don’t come for free’

Although her article didn’t address this, she admitted “our country and our economy continue to face challenges”.

Her opinion piece said: “The decisions I will take at the budget don’t come for free, and they are not easy – but they are the right, fair and necessary choices.”

Yesterday, Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates reported that Ms Reeves is unlikely to raise the basic rates of income tax or national insurance, to avoid breaking a promise to protect “working people” in the budget.

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Tax hikes possible, Reeves tells Sky News

Sky News has also obtained an internal definition of “working people” used by the Treasury, which relates to Britons who earn less than £45,000 a year.

This, in theory, means those on higher salaries could be the ones to face a squeeze in the budget – with the Treasury stating that it does not comment on tax measures.

In other developments, some top economists have warned Ms Reeves that increasing income tax or reducing public spending is her only option for balancing the books.

Experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies have cautioned the chancellor against opting to hike alternative taxes instead, telling The Independent this would “cause unnecessary amounts of economic damage”.

Although such an approach would help the chancellor avoid breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge, it is feared a series of smaller changes would make the tax system “ever more complicated and less efficient”.

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Why there is a budget black hole – and how the chancellor might fill it

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Why there is a budget black hole - and how the chancellor might fill it

Here are my rolling assumptions for the shape of the budget on 26 November, which I will update as the date draws closer.

It sets out why there is a black hole – and what might fill it, with greater confidence about the former. Note the Treasury has not yet received the final forecasts.

Some of the suggestions and assumptions have been drawn up with the help of the Resolution Foundation, but the judgements are mine.

The size of the black hole

£10bn – Forecast downgrade, comprising of lower future productivity offset by upgrade to wage growth

£2bn-£4bn – Debt interest costs, depending on the window picked by the Office for Budget Responsibility

£10bn – Existing policy turns: winter fuel allowance, welfare/PIP U-turn, fuel duty freeze rollover

£5bn – More spending on lifting two-child benefit cap, help for energy bills and also for NHS England redundancy payments

£5-£10bn – Extra headroom

Total: £32-£39bn

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How could Rachel Reeves fill it?

£5bn – Reducing unallocated departmental spending in 2029/30

£8bn – Freezing personal allowance

£4bn – Close capital gains tax loopholes on people moving abroad and after death

£2bn – Higher rate council tax band

£2bn – Get Limited Liability Partnerships to pay national insurance

£1-£2bn – Higher gambling taxes

£1bn – Raise higher rate income tax

Total: £23bn

How to fill the rest?

One big measure or lots of little measures. The Resolution Foundation has explored putting up income tax and simultaneously reducing national insurance.

This means for most employees their tax bill doesn’t change. But the self employed are paying more and pensioners pay more, along with landlords who pay more because income tax is paid on rental income not national insurance. This raises £6bn.

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MPs demand Crown Estate explains why Prince Andrew paid ‘peppercorn’ rent at Royal Lodge

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MPs demand Crown Estate explains why Prince Andrew paid 'peppercorn' rent at Royal Lodge

Parliament’s spending watchdog has asked the Crown Estate to explain the rationale behind Prince Andrew’s “peppercorn” rent at Royal Lodge.

The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) has written to the Treasury and the Crown Estate after raising concerns over the value for money of the prince’s living arrangements.

The King‘s team is said to be in talks with his brother about leaving the property voluntarily following renewed controversy over his links to the late paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

Andrew signed a 75-year lease in 2003 after paying an initial down payment of £1m and spent £7.5m on renovations as part of the agreement. He lives there with his ex-wife, Sarah Ferguson.

Prince Andrew lives at Royal Lodge with his ex-wife
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Prince Andrew lives at Royal Lodge with his ex-wife

“Peppercorn rent” is a legal term used in leases to show that rent technically exists, so the lease is valid, but it’s nominal, often literally £1 a year or just a symbolic amount. In practice, it means the tenant pays no rent.

In a letter published on Wednesday, PAC chairman and Tory MP Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, said: “There is considerable and understandable public interest in the spending of public money in relation to Prince Andrew, which in part stems from the fact that he is no longer a working Royal and from serious and disturbing allegations made against him.”

He asked “that you write to us providing an update on the status of, and rationale for, the lease”.

More on Prince Andrew

Prince Andrew gave up his titles ahead of the publication of the posthumous memoirs of Virginia Giuffre, who accused the prince of sexually abusing her as a 17-year-old. He has strenuously denied the allegations.

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Calls for Prince Andrew to leave Royal Lodge: Is it that simple?

Criticism has now turned to the 30-room mansion in Windsor he has lived in effectively rent-free since 2003.

Sir Geoffrey said the Crown Estate has a duty to manage its land “according to the best consideration of money or money’s worth which in their opinion can be reasonably obtained”.

Read more:
Where could Prince Andrew move to if he leaves Royal Lodge?
No simple solution to problem of Prince Andrew and Royal Lodge

The mansion has 30 rooms. Pic: Sky News
Image:
The mansion has 30 rooms. Pic: Sky News

He went on: “We are therefore concerned as to whether the lease arrangements for Royal Lodge are, in light of recent developments and changes in the responsibilities of Prince Andrew, achieving the best value for money.

“They must also be justifiable in comparison to other options for the use or disposal of the property.

“It is also a matter of concern to the committee that the terms of the lease, including those relating to maintenance, are being effectively enforced to maintain the value and character of this nationally important royal residence.”

He has requested a response on or before 28 November, and said the committee will then decide if a public evidence session should be held.

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