For more than a year, we have been tracking the flow of sanctioned items out of the UK and towards Russia.

Electronic equipment, radar parts, components used to make aircraft and drones. These are all items that have been banned from going to Russia. For good reason: while Britain is far from a global manufacturing powerhouse, it nonetheless still makes certain prized components used to make machinery.

In some hands, these components could be used for peaceful purposes, but they could also be used to wage war. All of which is why they are among the items sanctioned by G7 nations and banned from entry to Russia.

A glance at the trade figures might lull you into thinking those sanctions have been extraordinarily successful. Look at the flows of these so-called “dual use” goods from the UK to Russia and they drop to zero shortly after the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of those export bans. But that’s not the whole story – because over precisely the same period, exports of those same items to countries neighbouring Russia have risen sharply.

At this point, the data trail goes cold. As far as the statistics tell us, those components stay in the Caucasus and Central Asia. But there are two powerful pieces of evidence that suggest otherwise. The first is that we have travelled out to the border of Russia and filmed European-sanctioned goods (in this case cars, the hardest of all goods to disguise) passing across the border.

The second is that Ukrainian forces have repeatedly found weaponry and equipment containing European and British components inside them on the battlefield in their country. British technology has been used to kill Ukrainians – in spite of sanctions. That was one of the messages President Volodymyr Zelenskyy relayed in his interview with my colleague Mark Austin.

So, in the wake of that interview, we revisited the databases to see if those flows of goods to Russian neighbours had slowed in recent months.

But, far from slowing, they’ve accelerated. In the past nine months, the flow of dual-use goods to Russian neighbours has risen by an average of 9%, compared with the monthly average between the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and last June. Those flows are 111% higher than they were before the invasion.

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Nor are the flows of British goods to Russian neighbours the only trend suggesting these components are being trans-shipped via third countries. Look at exports of sanctioned items to the United Arab Emirates and Turkey and they are up by a similar proportion.

In short: the evasion of sanctions continues much as it has done since the beginning of the war. For all the talk about the toughest sanctions regime in history, the reality on the ground is somewhat different.

Global oil costs have fallen back sharply amid hopes that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran will end the threat of disruption to crucial energy flows for the world economy.

The cost of a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, was as high as $81 late on Sunday night as financial markets opened in Asia.

It was the first reaction to news of the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend and built on gains seen widely since Israel first began its strikes 10 days previously.

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But prices came down on Monday evening after it became clear that Iran’s retaliation, through missile attacks on a US base in Qatar, were a mere face-saving exercise due to the Americans being pre-warned by Tehran.

Drops of more than 7% in US trading were followed by a further 3% fall on Tuesday, with Brent currently standing just below $68.

It remains, however, $5 a barrel higher on where it started the month and reflects the continuing, possible, threat to shipping in the key Strait of Hormuz which handles 20% of global oil and 30% of natural gas supplies.

The main concerns in the energy market were over potential disruption to liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries as it remains in high demand.

Europe is yet to fully restock following the harsh end to last winter which drained storage levels.

As such prices had already been driven up by steep competition from Asia for Gulf supplies.

UK day-ahead natural gas prices were more than 25% up in the month, as of Monday, and have not fallen as sharply as oil costs.

Financial services specialists have pointed to upwards shifts in the risk premiums facing cargo, especially tankers, due to the conflict.

Analysts had warned last week that a sustained Middle East war with disruption to energy shipping risked a fresh cost of living crisis similar to that seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Only a sustained ceasefire is likely to bring the additional costs seen in wholesale prices down.

Stock markets have also reacted positively to the ceasefire development, with the FTSE 100 in London up by 0.3%.

The gains in London have lagged those seen across much of Europe.

Commenting on the moves Russ Mould, AJ Bell’s investment director, said: “The markets will be watching closely to see if the cessation in hostilities is maintained and for Iran’s next move – amid noises from that side that no such ceasefire has been agreed.

“Defensive stocks, oil producers and precious metals miners were all under pressure in early trading.

“Gold slipped back as its safe-haven attributes were less in demand. This rather clipped the wings of the FTSE 100 given its relatively heavy weightings in these areas and saw the index underperform its European counterparts.

“On the flipside, travel stocks moved higher, both on the implications for fuel costs but also as the potential hit to foreign travel appetite that might have resulted from any further escalation of Middle East tensions seems to have been swerved.”

Amazon has said it will invest £40bn in the UK over the next three years as it creates thousands of jobs and opens four new warehouses.

The online shopping giant will build two huge fulfilment centres in the East Midlands, which it expects to open in 2027. The exact locations are still to be revealed.

Two others – in Hull and Northampton – were previously announced and are set to be finished this year and in 2026 respectively, with 2,000 jobs expected at each site.

Amazon is already one of the country’s biggest private employers – with around 75,000 staff.

Two new buildings will also go up at its corporate headquarters in east London, while other investment includes new delivery stations, upgrading its transport network and redeveloping Bray Film Studios in Berkshire – which it bought last year.

The £40bn figure also includes most of the £8bn announced in 2024 for building and maintaining UK data centres, as well as staff wages and benefits.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the investment into Amazon’s third-biggest market after the US and Germany was a “massive vote of confidence in the UK as the best place to do business”.

“It means thousands of new jobs – real opportunities for people in every corner of the country to build careers, learn new skills, and support their families,” said Sir Keir.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said it was a “powerful endorsement of Britain’s economic strengths”.

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Amazon chief executive Andy Jassy stressed the investment would benefit communities across the UK.

“When Amazon invests, it’s not only in London and the South East,” he said.

“We’re bringing innovation and job creation to communities throughout England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, strengthening the UK’s economy and delivering better experiences for customers wherever they live.”

However, Amazon’s immense power and size continues to raise concerns among some regulators, unions and campaigners.

There have long been claims over potentially dangerous conditions at its warehouses – denied by the company, while last week Britain’s grocery regulator launched an investigation into whether it breached rules on supplier payments.