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A delay to the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions later this month would “materially” hamper Britain’s economic recovery, a leading business group has warned.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has predicted that a consumer spending surge will see GDP grow by 6.8% this year – but said it would reassess the forecast if restrictions are extended.

It comes as doubts are cast over the 21 June lockdown lifting date with ministers stressing caution amid a rise in the number of cases of the Delta coronavirus variant.

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Suren Thiru, head of economics at the BCC, said: “The squeeze on activity and the damage to confidence from a marked delay to the full lifting of restrictions or further restrictions to combat COVID variants would materially slow the recovery.”

Official figures on Wednesday showed another 7,540 coronavirus infections were recorded in the latest 24-hour period – the most since 26 February.

The Prime Minister said it was clear that case numbers were going up and the government would be looking at whether the level of vaccine protection had been built up by enough “for us to go ahead to the next stage”.

Britain’s economy suffered its biggest decline for three centuries last year with GDP shrinking by nearly 10%.

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Forecasters including the Bank of England expect it will bounce back this year with the strongest annual growth since the Second World War.

The BCC’s latest report predicted a “historically robust short-term outlook” for the UK economy, driven by the strongest growth in spending since 1988.

Boris Johnson warned of the affect measures could have on trade. File pic
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Trade is expected to drag on the recovery

Mr Thiru said: “The UK economy is in a temporary sweet spot with the boost from the release of pent-up demand, if restrictions ease as planned, and ongoing government support expected to drive a substantial summer revival in economic activity, underpinned by the rapid vaccine rollout.”

Even in this scenario, the recovery is expected to be “uneven”, with manufacturing returning to pre-pandemic levels later this year but hard-hit sectors such as catering and hospitality needing until the middle of 2023 to get back onto their feet.

Trade is also expected to drag on growth in the short-term as a result of post-Brexit disruption and a weak outlook for the eurozone economy weighing on EU demand for UK goods and services.

The BCC forecast predicted quarterly growth at its strongest over the second and third quarters of this year and the overall economy returning to pre-pandemic levels at the start of 2022.

But it said this “assumes that the UK government’s roadmap out of lockdown restrictions proceeds as currently planned”, adding that “another scenario would lead to revisions in the next forecast”.

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Good economic news as sunny weather boosted retail sales

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Good economic news as sunny weather boosted retail sales

Retail sales grew in June as warm weather boosted spending and day trips, official figures show.

Spending on goods such as food, clothes and household items rose 0.9%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

It’s a bounce back from the 2.8% dip in May, but last month’s figure was below economists’ forecast 1.2% uplift as consumers dealt with higher prices from increased inflation.

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Also weighing on spending was reduced consumer confidence amid talk of higher taxes, according to a closely watched indicator from market research firm GfK.

Retail sales figures are significant as they measure household consumption, the largest expenditure in the UK economy.

Growing retail sales can mean economic growth, which the government has repeatedly said is its top priority.

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June’s retail sales rise came as people bought more in supermarkets, and retailers said drinks sales were up.

While hot and sunny weather boosted some brick-and-mortar shops, the heat led some to head online.

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Non-store retailers, which include mainly online shops, but also market stalls, had sold the most in more than three years.

Not since February 2022 had sales been so high as the Met Office said England had its warmest ever June, and the second warmest for the UK as a whole.

The June increases suggest that the May drop was a bump in the road. When looked at as a whole, the first six months of the year saw retail sales up 1.7%.

Filling up the car for day trips to take advantage of the sun played an important role in the retail sales growth.

When fuel is excluded, the rise was smaller, just 0.6%.

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Despite lower consumer sentiment and more expensive goods, consumers are benefitting from rising wages and are cutting back on savings.

The ONS lifestyle survey – backed up by hard data like the Bank of England’s money and credit figures – shows that households have rebuilt their rainy day savings and are cutting back on the amount of money they squirrel away each month.

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Former Poundland owner lines up advisers as restructuring looms

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Former Poundland owner lines up advisers as restructuring looms

The former owner of Poundland is lining up advisers to supervise its transition to new shareholders through a court-sanctioned process that will involve store closures and job cuts at the discount retailer.

Sky News has learnt that Pepco Group, which is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, is drafting in FRP Advisory weeks after it struck a deal to sell Poundland to Gordon Brothers.

Industry sources said FRP had been asked by Pepco to act as an observer, with the High Court scheduled to sanction a restructuring plan in the last week of August.

Under the proposed deal, 68 Poundland shops would close in the short term, along with two distribution centres.

More shops are expected to be shut under Gordon Brothers over time, resulting in hundreds of job losses.

Pepco is said to be particularly focused on IT systems which Poundland uses in common with Pepco’s operations in Poland.

Barry Williams, managing director of Poundland, said at the time of the deal’s announcement: “It’s no secret that we have much work to do to get Poundland back on track.

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“While Poundland remains a strong brand, serving 20 million-plus shoppers each year, our performance for a significant period has fallen short of our high standards and action is needed to enable the business to return to growth.

“It’s sincerely regrettable that this plan includes the closure of stores and distribution centres, but it’s necessary if we’re to achieve our goal of securing the future of thousands of jobs and hundreds of stores.

Prior to the deal’s announcement, Poundland employed roughly 16,000 people across an estate of over 800 shops in the UK and Ireland.

Tax hikes announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, in last autumn’s Budget have increased the financial pressure on high street retailers.

In recent months, chains including WH Smith, Lakeland and The Original Factory Shop have changed hands amid challenging circumstances.

In June, Sky News revealed that River Island, the family-owned clothing retailer, was also working with advisers on a rescue plan aimed at averting its collapse.

Pepco and Poundland declined to comment.

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TalkTalk dials up £100m investment from Ares Management

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TalkTalk dials up £100m investment from Ares Management

TalkTalk, the telecoms and broadband group, has secured a £100m capital injection from one of its existing backers in a deal that will relieve the growing financial pressure on the company.

Sky News has learnt that Ares Management has agreed to provide the new funding in two tranches, with the first £60m said to be imminent.

A deal could be announced as soon as Friday afternoon, according to banking sources.

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The funding agreement comes amid discussions between TalkTalk and its bondholders about a potential break-up of the company, which would involve the sale of its consumer arm and PXC, its wholesale and network division.

Those disposals are now not expected to be launched in the short term.

One person close to the situation said that in addition to Ares’s £100m commitment, TalkTalk had raised £50m from two disposals in March and June, comprising the sale of non-core customers to Utility Warehouse.

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There was also an in-principle agreement to defer cash interest payments and to capitalise those, which would be worth approximately £60m.

TalkTalk has been grappling with a strained balance sheet for some time, and recently drafted in advisers from Alvarez & Marsal, the professional services firm, to assist its finance function.

The group has more than 3m broadband customers, making it one of the largest players in the UK market.

It completed a £1.2bn refinancing late last year, but has been under pressure from bondholders to raise additional capital.

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Last month, the Financial Times reported that BT’s broadband infrastructure arm, Openreach, could block TalkTalk from adding new customers to its network in an escalating dispute over payments owed to BT Group.

TalkTalk, which was taken private in 2021, and Ares both declined to comment.

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