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A delay to the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions later this month would “materially” hamper Britain’s economic recovery, a leading business group has warned.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has predicted that a consumer spending surge will see GDP grow by 6.8% this year – but said it would reassess the forecast if restrictions are extended.

It comes as doubts are cast over the 21 June lockdown lifting date with ministers stressing caution amid a rise in the number of cases of the Delta coronavirus variant.

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‘Thank goodness’ for recovery – but longer term relatively weak, says BoE governor

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the BCC, said: “The squeeze on activity and the damage to confidence from a marked delay to the full lifting of restrictions or further restrictions to combat COVID variants would materially slow the recovery.”

Official figures on Wednesday showed another 7,540 coronavirus infections were recorded in the latest 24-hour period – the most since 26 February.

The Prime Minister said it was clear that case numbers were going up and the government would be looking at whether the level of vaccine protection had been built up by enough “for us to go ahead to the next stage”.

Britain’s economy suffered its biggest decline for three centuries last year with GDP shrinking by nearly 10%.

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Forecasters including the Bank of England expect it will bounce back this year with the strongest annual growth since the Second World War.

The BCC’s latest report predicted a “historically robust short-term outlook” for the UK economy, driven by the strongest growth in spending since 1988.

Boris Johnson warned of the affect measures could have on trade. File pic
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Trade is expected to drag on the recovery

Mr Thiru said: “The UK economy is in a temporary sweet spot with the boost from the release of pent-up demand, if restrictions ease as planned, and ongoing government support expected to drive a substantial summer revival in economic activity, underpinned by the rapid vaccine rollout.”

Even in this scenario, the recovery is expected to be “uneven”, with manufacturing returning to pre-pandemic levels later this year but hard-hit sectors such as catering and hospitality needing until the middle of 2023 to get back onto their feet.

Trade is also expected to drag on growth in the short-term as a result of post-Brexit disruption and a weak outlook for the eurozone economy weighing on EU demand for UK goods and services.

The BCC forecast predicted quarterly growth at its strongest over the second and third quarters of this year and the overall economy returning to pre-pandemic levels at the start of 2022.

But it said this “assumes that the UK government’s roadmap out of lockdown restrictions proceeds as currently planned”, adding that “another scenario would lead to revisions in the next forecast”.

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Amazon to invest £40bn in UK – with more warehouses and thousands of new jobs

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Amazon to invest £40bn in UK - with more warehouses and thousands of new jobs

Amazon has said it will invest £40bn in the UK over the next three years as it creates thousands of jobs and opens four new warehouses.

The online shopping giant will build two huge fulfilment centres in the East Midlands, which it expects to open in 2027. The exact locations are still to be revealed.

Two others – in Hull and Northampton – were previously announced and are set to be finished this year and in 2026 respectively, with 2,000 jobs expected at each site.

Amazon is already one of the country’s biggest private employers – with around 75,000 staff.

Two new buildings will also go up at its corporate headquarters in east London, while other investment includes new delivery stations, upgrading its transport network and redeveloping Bray Film Studios in Berkshire – which it bought last year.

The £40bn figure also includes most of the £8bn announced in 2024 for building and maintaining UK data centres, as well as staff wages and benefits.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the investment into Amazon’s third-biggest market after the US and Germany was a “massive vote of confidence in the UK as the best place to do business”.

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“It means thousands of new jobs – real opportunities for people in every corner of the country to build careers, learn new skills, and support their families,” said Sir Keir.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said it was a “powerful endorsement of Britain’s economic strengths”.

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Amazon chief executive Andy Jassy stressed the investment would benefit communities across the UK.

“When Amazon invests, it’s not only in London and the South East,” he said.

“We’re bringing innovation and job creation to communities throughout England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, strengthening the UK’s economy and delivering better experiences for customers wherever they live.”

However, Amazon’s immense power and size continues to raise concerns among some regulators, unions and campaigners.

There have long been claims over potentially dangerous conditions at its warehouses – denied by the company, while last week Britain’s grocery regulator launched an investigation into whether it breached rules on supplier payments.

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Plans to cut energy costs for thousands of businesses announced

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Plans to cut energy costs for thousands of businesses announced

Plans to cut energy costs for thousands of businesses have been announced as part of the government’s long-awaited industrial strategy.

The announcement confirms Sky News reporting that the plan proposes making energy prices more competitive.

Firms have said high prices have hindered growth and made them less competitive.

Commercial energy prices are the highest in the G7 group of industrialised nations.

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Under the industrial strategy for 2025 to 2035, the government has said it plans to cut the bills of electricity-intensive manufacturers by up to £40 per megawatt hour – up to 25% – from 2027, which could benefit more than 7,000 businesses.

These savings will come by exempting them from certain levies on bills.

Roughly 500 of the most energy-intensive companies, such as the steel industry, chemicals and glassmaking industries, will also see their network charges cut.

Pic: iStock
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Pic: iStock

The current 60% discount they get, via the British Industry Supercharger scheme, will increase to 90% from next year.

The government also said the energy measures would be funded through reforms to the energy system, without raising household bills or taxes.

The scope and eligibility for the scheme will be finalised after a consultation.

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The policy is the first industrial strategy of its kind in eight years and comes as part of the government’s key priority of growing the economy.

Pressure was on to develop such a policy after the US’s Inflation Reduction Act boosted investment in renewable energy, and the European Union’s Net-Zero Industry Act was designed to boost domestic production.

A “bespoke” 10-year plan has been created for eight sectors where the UK is said to be strong already and there is potential for growth.

The sectors named by the government are advanced manufacturing, clean energy, creative industries, defence, digital and technologies, life sciences, professional and business services, and financial services.

The state-owned British Business Bank will expand to spur investment into smaller companies, and provide an extra £1.2bn a year by 2028-29.

The government also repeated its ambition to cut regulatory burdens, spend more on research and development and speed up the planning process.

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Former Centrica chief Laidlaw in frame to chair embattled BP

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Former Centrica chief Laidlaw in frame to chair embattled BP

Sam Laidlaw, the former boss of Centrica, is among the candidates being considered as the next chairman of BP, Britain’s besieged oil and gas exploration giant.

Sky News has learnt that Mr Laidlaw is being considered by BP board members as a potential successor to Helge Lund, who announced in April that he would step down.

BP’s chair search comes with the £62bn oil major in a state of crisis, as industry predators circle and the pace of its strategic transformation being interrogated by shareholders.

Elliott Management, the activist investor, snapped up a multibillion pound stake in BP earlier this year and is pushing its chief executive, Murray Auchincloss, to accelerate spending cuts and ditch a string of renewable energy commitments.

Mr Lund’s departure will come after nearly a quarter of BP’s shareholders opposed his re-election at its annual meeting in April – an unusually large protest given that his intention to step down had already been announced.

BP’s senior independent director – the Aviva chief executive Amanda Blanc – is said to be moving “at pace” to complete the recruitment process.

A number of prominent candidates are understood to be in discussions with headhunters advising BP on the search.

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Mr Laidlaw would be a logical choice to take the role, having transformed Centrica, the owner of British Gas, during his tenure, which ended in 2014.

Since then, he has had a long stint – which recently concluded – on the board of miner Rio Tinto, which has been fending off activist calls to abandon its London listing.

He also established, and then sold, Neptune Energy, an oil company which was acquired by Italy’s Eni for nearly £4bn in 2023.

Last December, Mr Laidlaw was appointed chairman of AWE, the government-owned body which oversees Britain’s nuclear weapons capability.

He also has strong family connections to BP, with his father, Christopher Laidlaw, having served as its deputy chairman during a long business career.

One person close to BP said the younger Mr Laidlaw had been approached about chairing the company during its previous recruitment process but had ruled himself out because of his Neptune Energy role.

The status of his engagement with BP’s search was unclear on Saturday.

Another person said to have been approached is Ken MacKenzie, who recently retired as chairman of the mining giant BHP.

Mr MacKenzie headed BHP during a period when Elliott held a stake in the company, and is said to have a good working relationship with the investor.

Shares in BP have continued their downward trajectory over the last year, having fallen by nearly a fifth during that period.

The company’s valuation slump is reported to have drawn renewed interest in a possible takeover bid, with rivals Shell and ExxonMobil among those said to have “run the numbers” in recent months.

Reports of such interest have not elicited any formal response, suggesting that any deal is conceptual at this stage.

BP is racing to sell assets including Castrol, its lubricants division, which could command a price of about $8bn.

This weekend, BP declined to comment, while Mr Laidlaw could not be reached for comment.

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