The US, Britain and the rest of the NATO alliance are expected to sharpen their language on the challenge posed by China, keep up pressure on Russia and for the first time make tackling the impact on security of climate change a key task.
President Joe Biden will touch down in Brussels on Sunday evening ahead of a summit on Monday of all 30 alliance leaders, including Boris Johnson, at NATO‘s giant, glass headquarters on the outskirts of the Belgian capital.
Russia’s president told NBC News in an interview ahead of his meeting with Mr Biden that relations between Moscow and Washington were at their “lowest point”.
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Putin: Russia-US relations at ‘lowest point’
Speaking ahead of the NATO summit, its chief, Jens Stoltenberg, said it was a “pivotal moment” for the alliance.
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“We are in an age of global competition and we must respond to many threats and challenges at the same time,” he said in a press conference on Friday. “We will also address the security impact of climate change, for the first time, making this an important task for NATO.”
The atmosphere at the summit is set to differ from the previous two gatherings in 2017 and 2019, when then-president Donald Trump stole the show.
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He upturned what is usually a carefully choreographed and planned piece of diplomatic theatre, berating allies as “delinquent” for failing to pay their fair share of the bill towards collective defence and instead overly-relying on the US military.
Mr Trump even threatened to pull the US out of NATO – a move that would have dealt a hammer blow to what is regarded by its members as the cornerstone of their security.
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2019: Trump warns NATO members to pay bills
All eyes this time will be on Mr Biden.
In a return to the language normally expected from US leaders, he is expected to affirm his country’s “unwavering commitment” to the alliance and to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which requires all allies to come to the defence of any member state if attacked.
But allies remain under pressure, even without Mr Trump’s threats, to meet previous commitments to move towards spending at least 2% of national income on defence by 2024 – a pledge made at a NATO summit in Wales in 2014.
Failure to do so would send the wrong signal to the Biden administration and to NATO’s adversaries, a European source said.
Image: Donald Trump with NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg and (below) the UK’s Boris Johnson at the 2019 summit
The summit on Monday will be relatively short, taking place just in the afternoon.
In terms of concrete outcomes, allies are expected to sign up to a communique which looks set to include a toughening of language about the challenge posed by China, according to three European sources.
China was mentioned for the first time in a NATO leaders’ communique after the previous summit, hosted by the UK, in 2019 – when it was described as a challenge and an opportunity.
Eighteen months later, this language will remain balanced but is expected to give more of a sense of how Beijing, with its growing military power, poses a challenge to the world’s democracies.
Image: Chinese President Xi Jinping and then-vice president Joe Biden during a luncheon in Washington in 2015
The allies will still stress areas of co-operation, including climate change.
But there is concern particularly in the US about the threat posed by a rising China, with officials accusing the ruling Chinese Communist Party of human rights abuses and attempting to undermine international rules established since the Second World War.
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The Daily Climate Show G7 special
NATO allies will also finalise what is being called the NATO 2030 initiative – a plan to transform the alliance to meet emerging and future threats. It includes plans to better exploit emerging technologies, enhance cyber defences, and combat climate change.
The initiative was devised after Mr Trump and France‘s President Emmanuel Macron questioned the relevance of an alliance that was established at the start of the Cold War to tackle the then-Soviet Union.
Reading between the lines of President Trump’s social media posts is an art, not a science.
But whether by intention or not, there is always insight in his posts. His Truth Social words reacting to the Israeli attack on Iran are intentionally ambiguous.
When was he told by Israelthat they would strike Iran? Did he give them a green light, or was it more amber?
Was his insistence, as recently as 48 hours ago, that a strike would “blow” the chances of a deal with Iran actually just a ruse to afford Israel the element of surprise? That’s what the Israelis are claiming.
Image: Mr Trump said he ‘gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal’. Pic: Reuters
Clearly, President Trump does not want to give the impression that his ‘don’t strike’ advice was ignored by Netanyahu.
His social posts are filled with enough ambiguity to allow him to maintain his good cop stance alongside Netanyahu, the bad cop: “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to ‘just do it’…”
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Trump’s ‘art of the deal’, whether it be in real estate or nuclear weapon negotiations, requires unpredictability and ambiguity.
Both of those, as it happens, are useful to hide ineptitude too. The line between diplomatic masterstroke and disastrous diplomacy is thin.
The president is claiming that the Israeli attacks make a deal more, not less, likely because of the pressure Iran will now be under.
Maybe, but many regional watchers are very unconvinced.
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An alternative path to negotiations for Iran would be to go fully down the North Korea route, comforted in the knowledge that China – as a big Iranian oil customer – and Russia – as a weapons customer – will be on side.
Trump may think that the pressure of bombardment will force Iran to heel. But the other pressure the Iranian supreme leader is under is the pressure of survival.
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2:33
Iran attacks analysed
The Israelis and the Americans are calculating that Iran and its proxies are now sufficiently degraded, and so the response will be limp and containable.
They might be right in terms of conventional attacks, but asymmetrical operations are another fear – against Israeli targets or more broadly, softer Western targets in the region or beyond.
Step back from the chaos of the past 24 hours. The broader picture here is regime change.
Netanyahu said as much in his Friday speech, calling for an internal uprising. He ignored history – which suggests people tend to rally round their flag – but more than that, that foreign air strikes alone don’t work.
Look at Libya in 1986, Iraq in 1991, or Yugoslavia in 1999.
Netanyahu wants to go further. Will he take out the supreme leader? Trump does not want another full-scale conflict in the Middle East. Of all the things he is accused of being, a hawkish warmonger he is not.
But there are plenty of politicians on Capitol Hill – on both sides of the divide – who support regime change in Iran.
I was at an event in Congress in December organised by Iranian exiled opposition leaders. I was struck by the cross-party support for regime change in one form or another.
Israel this weekend announced that its military had achieved total air superiority from western Iran to the capital Tehran. That’s remarkable.
Could Trump be persuaded to pursue regime change? Peace, eventually, through strength? His motto adapted.
We are at yet another unsettlingly tense moment for the region.
A manhunt is under way after a US politician and her husband were shot dead in their home in a “politically motivated assassination” – and another politician and his wife were also shot.
Minnesota state representative Melissa Hortman and her husband were killed at their home, Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, confirmed.
State senator John Hoffman and his wife were also shot in their home but are expected to survive. The senator, according to officials, is in a stable condition after emergency surgery.
Image: Representative Melissa Hortman and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook/Minnesota Legislature
Authorities have confirmed that the suspect they are looking for is 57-year-old Vance Boelter – who, in a press conference, was described as a 6ft 1in white male, with brown hair and brown eyes.
Members of the public have been urged not to approach him as he may be armed.
The suspect was reportedly posing as a police officer, and officials said the alleged attacker escaped after an exchange of gunfire.
Both politicians are members of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.
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1:08
US politician killed: Governor calls it ‘targeted political violence’
US President Donald Trump, in a statement, said: “I have been briefed on the terrible shooting that took place in Minnesota, which appears to be a targeted attack against State Lawmakers.
“Our Attorney General, Pam Bondi, and the FBI, are investigating the situation, and they will be prosecuting anyone involved to the fullest extent of the law.
“Such horrific violence will not be tolerated in the United States of America.”
Image: John Hoffman and his wife were shot multiple times at their home. Pic: AP
Authorities have urged residents of the Champlin and Brooklyn Park areas to stay in their homes.
In an earlier Facebook post, Mr Walz said: “I’ve been briefed this morning on an ongoing situation involving targeted shootings in Champlin and Brooklyn Park.
“The Minnesota Department of Public Safety and local law enforcement are on the scene. We will share more information soon.”
Image: Former US president Joe Biden with Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram/ melissahortman
At a subsequent news conference, Mr Walz said: “We must all, in Minnesota and across the country, stand against all forms of political violence.
“Those responsible for this will be held accountable.”
He has also urged those in Minnesota not to attend political rallies until the suspect is caught.
Police evacuated the Texas State Capitol and grounds in Austin ahead of an anti-Trump protest on Saturday – citing a credible threat to politicians.
Image: Former US vice president Kamala Harris and Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram/ melissahortman
Post-mortem examinations will be conducted to determine the extent of their injuries.
However, it is clear that both Ms Hortman and her spouse died from gunshot wounds, Drew Evans, superintendent of the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, said.
Ms Hortman, a mother of two, was first elected in 2004 – and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature. She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.
Mr Hoffman, also a Democrat, was first elected in 2012 – and ran a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.
Hakeem Jeffries, House Democratic leader, has described the shootings as “deeply disturbing” on X, adding that “violence is never acceptable”, and that he is “praying hard” for the victims.
Former Arizona representative, Gabby Giffords, described her friend Ms Hortman as a “true public servant”, who “dedicated her life building a better, safer Minnesota”.
Nancy Pelosi, former speaker of the US House of Representatives, said she was “heartbroken” by the news.
She added: “Unfortunately, we know the tragedy of when political violence hits home very well.
“All of us must remember that it’s not only the act of violence, but also the reaction to it, that can normalise it. This climate of politically-motivated violence must end.”
In a tribute, Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin said: “Melissa, Mark, John, and Yvette – these are not just names, and this is not just politics.
“These are people. They’re longtime friends to me and Jenn and so many others in Minnesota. They have children, loved ones, neighbors, and friends.”
Mr Martin added: “Today, we recommit ourselves to fight harder for the values that Melissa and Mark embodied – building a kinder, more just, and loving world. If this murderer thinks we will be silenced, he’s wrong.”
US President Donald Trump has revealed details of a one-hour phone call with his Russian counterpart, in which they agreed the conflict between Israel and Iran should end.
Posting on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump added that he told Vladimir Putin that “his war [in Ukraine] should also end”.
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2:33
Iran’s retaliation analysed
The Iranian response has resulted in at least three people killed and dozens of injuries in Israel, according to medics. Iranian state TV, meanwhile, has reported that 20 children are among the 60 killed in a strike on a Tehran neighbourhood on Saturday.
Iranian missiles were seen entering Israeli airspace on Saturday evening.
Meanwhile, RAF jets and military assets are being sent to the Middle East after Tehran warned the UK and other allies their regional bases would be targeted if they helped defend Israel in the growing conflict between the two heavily armed countries.
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2:43
Tel Aviv: Buildings and cars destroyed
In his post, Mr Trump said: “President Putin called this morning to very nicely wish me a Happy Birthday, but to more importantly, talk about Iran, a country he knows very well. We talked at length.
“Much less time was spent talking about Russia/Ukraine, but that will be for next week. He is doing the planned prisoner swaps – large numbers of prisoners are being exchanged, immediately, from both sides.
“The call lasted approximately 1 hour. He feels, as do I, this war in Israel-Iran should end, to which I explained, his war should also end.”
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7:10
State TV: Children among dozens killed in Iran
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said President Putin condemned Israel’s military operation in Iran and expressed concerns about the risk of escalation.
During the conversation, the Russian leader briefed President Trump on his recent talks with the leaders of Israel and Iran – reiterating Russia’s hopes to seek mutually acceptable solutions on Iran’s growing nuclear issue.
Meanwhile, the latest round of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Sunday in Muscat will not take place, a senior US administration official has told Sky’s US partner network NBC News.
However, the official said the US is “not shutting the door to future discussions”.
“While there will be no meeting on Sunday, we remain committed to talks and hope the Iranians will come to the table soon,” the official said.