Plaid Cymru have won the by-election in the Senedd seat of Caerphilly for the first time.

The Welsh nationalist party secured 15,960 votes – and candidate Lindsay Whittle cried as the result was announced.

Mr Whittle is 72 years old and had stood as a Plaid candidate 13 times since 1983. He will now hold the seat until the Welsh Assembly’s national elections next year.

This by-election was widely regarded as a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and the result marks a considerable blow for Nigel Farage.

His candidate Llyr Powell received 12,113 votes – denying a victory that would have strengthened claims that Reform can convert a large lead in opinion polls into election wins.

Nonetheless, the party’s performance is a marked improvement on 2021, when it received just 495 votes.

More than anything, the result is a humiliating and historic defeat for Labour, who had held Caerphilly at every Senedd election since it was created in 1999 – as well as the Westminster seat for over a century.

Its candidate Richard Tunnicliffe secured 3,713 votes and finished in third place, with Welsh Labour describing it as a “by-election in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally”.

Turnout overall stood at 50.43% – considerably higher than during the last ballot back in 2021.

Giving his acceptance speech after the result was confirmed, Mr Whittle began by paying tribute to Hefin David – who was Welsh Labour’s Member of the Senedd for Caerphilly until his death in August.

“He will be a hard act to follow,” Mr Whittle said. “I will never fill his shoes – but I promise you, I will walk the same path that he did.”

The Plaid politician described how he had been “absolutely heartened” by how many young people were involved in the by-election – and said the result sends a clear message.

He said: “Listen now Cardiff and listen Westminster – this is Caerphilly and Wales telling you we want a better deal for every corner of Wales. The big parties need to sit up and take notice.

“Wales, we are at the dawn of new leadership, we are at the dawn of a new beginning – and I look forward to playing my part for a new Wales, and in particular, for the people of the Caerphilly constituency. I thank you with all my heart.”

Mr Whittle quipped Plaid’s victory “was better than scoring the winning try for Wales in the Rugby World Cup”.

And looking ahead to the next year’s elections, he added: “[This] result shows what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most.

“We’ve beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way – now Wales must follow.”

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Speaking to Sky’s chief political correspondent Jon Craig just before the declaration, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said: “There’s clearly a real significance to the result – we are seeing the disillusionment with Labour writ large. I’ve heard it on hundreds of doorsteps, we’ve seen it in opinion polls.”

He conceded there was tactical voting in this by-election – with Labour and Conservative supporters alike backing Lindsay Whittle to keep out Reform.

However, Mr ap Iorwerth added: “I’ve spoken to literally hundreds and hundreds of people who told me – time and time again – ‘I’ve been a Labour supporter all my life, and we’re backing you this time.’

“Not begrudgingly, but because they see that’s the direction we’re going in – not just in this by-election, but as a nation. I’m calling on people to get behind that positive change – not just today, but ahead of next May.”

First Minister Eluned Morgan congratulated Mr Whittle on his return to the Senedd and said: “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough.

“We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”

The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats were among the parties who lost their deposits.

It was a welcome designed to catch our attention, for a visit that meant everything to the King.

The Swiss guard, standing to attention as the UK’s national anthem played out in the courtyard outside the Apostolic Palace.

Queen Camilla, wearing a distinctive black mantilla as a mark of respect to the Pope, as they made their way inside to meet Pope Leo XIV for the first time.

We know King Charles had built a relationship with Pope Francis before his death, now it appeared he was building a friendly rapport with his predecessor, as Pope Leo and the King happily talked away, both in English, meaning their conversation flowed more naturally.

But while friendships between heads of state do matter diplomatically, this was also about making history.

Inside the Sistine Chapel, they prayed alongside each other. The first time a monarch and a pontiff have done that for 500 years, since Henry VIII broke away from the Catholic Church.

With King Charles also the supreme governor of the Church of England, the optics could not have been more significant for relations between the two faiths.

If you wanted to see how much King Charles’s interfaith work is appreciated, it came at the basilica of St Paul’s outside the walls.

An abbey with long-held links with English monarchs, where he was given the ceremonial title of royal confrater, and a special seat was made just for him and his heirs.

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Alongside religious matters, the two men talked publicly about their shared passion for the environment ahead of the UN’s climate conference COP, taking place in just over a week’s time.

With the King sent here on behalf of the government, and the foreign office emphasising how the Holy See is a vital global partner, we really saw brought into focus the soft power of the royals and the church, and how influential both can be.

The interactions between the King and Pope showed a shared interest in a range of global issues.

But as the head of the Catholic Church for England and Wales, Cardinal Vincent Nichols pointed out to me, here are also two heads of state who sadly have issues around allegations of historical sexual abuse hanging over their institutions, and the decision on how to address that publicly.

There will be relief that there were no updates on the Prince Andrew problem today.

But despite Andrew vehemently denying that he has done anything wrong, revelations have kept coming.

And that is where the jeopardy lies for the royal family as they try to draw our attention back to important moments like this.

In 1645, the stronghold of Caerphilly’s famous medieval castle was besieged and captured by the forces of Oliver Cromwell.

And as the polls closed at 10pm after a bruising by-election battle, the Labour stronghold of Caerphilly was in grave danger of being captured by the forces of Nigel Farage and Reform UK in 2025.

Famous for the three Cs of coal, cheese and its castle, Caerphilly has been represented at Westminster by Labour MPs for more than a century and in Cardiff since 1999, when the Welsh Assembly was created.

That’s about to change. Labour’s vote – once as impregnable as the castle – has crumbled like Caerphilly cheese, and the Tories, Lib Dems and Green Party are nowhere.

But Reform’s UK hopes of a famous victory in Caerphilly could be dashed by another political party hopeful of making a huge breakthrough in Wales, Plaid Cymru, second to Labour in last year’s general election and in every election for the Senedd since devolution.

As he arrived at the count at Caerphilly Leisure Centre shortly before the polls closed, Plaid Cymru’s veteran candidate, Lindsay Whittle, 72, was remarkably cheerful. Asked if he was going to win, he declared, punching the air: “I certainly hope so!”

An opinion poll in the constituency last week put support for Reform UK at 42%, Plaid Cymru 38%, Labour a dismal 12%, the Conservatives in lost deposit territory at 4%, along with the Greens at 3% and the Lib Dems barely registering at 1%.

Unlike Cromwell’s forces, who arrived in Caerphilly on horseback nearly 400 years ago, Mr Farage galloped into the constituency on polling day in a fast car, in what was his third visit of the by-election campaign to the constituency.

A victory for Mr Farage’s candidate, 30-year-old Llyr Powell, would leave Reform UK on the road to further triumphs and have an impact on UK politics far beyond the Welsh Valleys. It would be a pointer to massive Reform UK gains in local, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections next year.

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It would turn the mood of Labour MPs from its current gloom and trepidation into blind panic and would convince them – if they were not convinced already – that Mr Farage is on the march to Downing Street and many of the 2024 Labour intake will lose their seats at the next general election.

But let’s not rule out a Plaid victory. That would send shockwaves throughout Wales and be seen as a clear signal that Labour’s 26-year dominance of the Welsh government is about to come to an undignified end.

The only certainties tonight are humiliation for Labour and near-wipeout for the Conservatives and Lib Dems.

The only uncertainty is whether it’s Reform UK or Plaid Cymru whose troops – like Cromwell’s in 1645 – capture Labour’s Caerphilly stronghold.