A blip or a worrying sign? Tories begin inquest after surprising by-election loss

Published

4 years ago

June 18, 2021

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It’s an unwritten rule of politics that every electoral action can have an opposite – if not quite equal – reaction.

The question being asked by many Tories this morning will be whether the party’s recent relentless focus on winning new supporters in traditionally Labour-held areas in the north is starting to cost them in their strongholds in the south.

As ever, the reality is more complex.

Chesham and Amersham presented a potent mix of local and national issues that the Lib Dems were able to capitalise on.

The HS2 rail line runs through the constituency and proposed planning changes are a big concern here too.

And as the losing Tory candidate has said, the Lib Dems threw the kitchen sink, the microwave and everything else at this seat.

Tactical voting may have also been at play with Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems to ensure a government defeat.

But all that said, this trend – of traditional Tory regions in the south being eaten away by the opposition parties – was visible in May’s local election results.

David Cameron’s old Oxfordshire constituency of Whitney and the bastion of moneyed Home Counties Toryism Chipping Norton both got Labour councillors in that vote.

Meanwhile further south in Sussex, the conservative leader of Worthing Borough Council explicitly blamed the focus on levelling up in the north and prevalence of planned housing developments in the south for a loss of seats in his region.

The Lib Dems are echoing that this morning, saying that voters in places like Chesham and Amersham are fed up of being taken for granted.

Demographic change as young families move from inner London, along with chunky support for remaining in the EU in 2016 may also have played a part.

The messaging from Tory sources this morning is that this is a predictable mid-term protest vote against a party that has been in power for ten years and the seat can be retaken at a general election.

That may be right – but remember, that logic wasn’t borne out in the Hartlepool by-election where the Tories took the seat in May.

It also comes at a time when the government is polling well, in the midst of a successful vaccine rollout.

All of that means this is a more surprising result than Hartlepool.

But just because this brick has turned yellow, doesn’t mean the whole blue wall is guaranteed to come falling down.

For a start, there are genuine questions about whether there is a big enough crop of seats the Tories would realistically lose in a general election to counter their wins in the north.

What’s more, while in the north the Tories are now single-handedly taking votes from Labour, in the south the spoils of disillusioned conservative voters are more frequently being shared between a number of opposition parties.

For Labour, this is bad news.

This by-election saw the opposition vote collapse to just over 600 votes.

May’s bumper round of polling also saw good gains for the Green Party, as well as the Lib Dems.

Expect questions for Sir Keir Starmer today about why Labour is failing to win in places like Chesham and Amersham when the Lib Dems are.

The practical question for the next general election may be whether anti-Tory electoral pacts are the only way to get close to pushing Boris Johnson out of power.

Countless prime ministers have learnt the lesson of taking voters for granted the hard way.

It’s an irony not lost on Tories that the same sense of disillusionment they are trading off in the north now appears to be costing them votes in the south.

This is a stunning result for the Lib Dems and while it’s too soon to talk about the southern blue wall crumbling, it’s certainly wobbling.

Politics

Budget 2025: Consumer confidence falls as speculation ramps up – but London mayor welcomes major rail investment

Published

10 hours ago

November 20, 2025

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Budget 2025: Consumer confidence falls as speculation ramps up - but London mayor welcomes major rail investment

Consumer confidence has tumbled amid rampant speculation about what the chancellor will announce in the budget, figures show.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) blamed “strong hints” from the government of income tax hikes for the public’s falling expectations of how much they’ll spend over the next three months – even as Christmas beckons.

While a planned increase in income tax rates was scrapped last week, Sir Keir Starmer has refused to rule out freezing income tax thresholds – which the Conservatives argue amounts to a tax rise by stealth because it drags people into paying higher rates even if their wages increase.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said months of uncertainty had “heightened public concern about their own finances and the wider economy”.

Consumer expectations for the state of the economy over the next three months have fallen significantly to minus 44, down from minus 35 in October, according to data from the BRC and Opinium.

Ms Dickinson said action was needed from Rachel Reeves to “bring down the spiralling cost burden facing retailers”, which she said would “keep price rises in check”.

Signs of ‘fragile’ recovery in jobs market

In slightly more encouraging news for Ms Reeves ahead of her statement next Wednesday, new research suggests the jobs market may be on the up.

The Recruitment and Employment Confederation said the number of new job adverts last month was 754,359, up by 2.1% from September, taking the total to more than 1.6 million.

Ms Reeves’s decision to hike national insurance contributions for employers in last year’s budget was blamed for a slowdown in the market, and a rising unemployment rate.

The report said there has been an increase in adverts for medical radiographers, delivery drivers and couriers, and further education teaching professionals.

But it warned the apparent recovery was “fragile”.

Reeves set to back DLR extension

One man looking forward to the budget is Sir Sadiq Khan, who has welcomed reports that London’s DLR is set to be given funding for an extension.

According to the Press Association, the chancellor will back an extension to the Docklands Light Railway to Thamesmead at a cost of £1.7bn – unlocking thousands of new homes.

Thamesmead has been notoriously short of public transport links ever since it was developed in the 1960s.

The plan would see the line extended from Gallions Reach, near London City Airport, and include a new station at Beckton as well as in Thamesmead itself.

Sir Sadiq said the DLR extension “will not only transform travel in a historically under-served part of the capital but also unlock thousands of new jobs and homes, boosting the economy not just locally but nationally”.

It is also expected to unlock land for 25,000 new homes and up to 10,000 new jobs, along with almost £18bn of private investment in the area.

Politics

Prospective CFTC chair addresses DeFi regulation at nomination hearing

Published

16 hours ago

November 19, 2025

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Prospective CFTC chair addresses DeFi regulation at nomination hearing

Michael Selig, who serves as chief counsel for the crypto task force at the US Securities and Exchange Commission, faced questions from lawmakers on the Senate Agriculture Committee for his nomination to be the next chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

On Wednesday, Selig appeared before the committee and addressed questions and concerns from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle regarding his potential conflicts of interest, policy views and experience as the next CFTC chair, succeeding Caroline Pham.

Government, Senate, SEC, CFTC, United States — *Michael Selig addressing lawmakers on Wednesday’s confirmation hearing. Source:* *US Senate Agriculture Committee*

In his opening statement, Selig said he had advised a wide range of market participants, including digital asset companies, and warned against the agency taking a regulation-by-enforcement approach, stating that it would drive companies offshore.

“We’re at a unique moment in the history of our financial markets,” said Selig. “A wide range of new technologies, products, and platforms are emerging […] the digital asset economy alone has grown from a mere curiosity to a nearly $4 trillion market.”

The confirmation of Selig, whom US President Donald Trump nominated to chair the CFTC following the removal of his first pick, Brian Quintenz, is expected to head for a vote soon. According to the Senate calendar, the Agriculture Committee is scheduled to discuss his nomination on Thursday.

Addressing DeFi, crypto enforcement, roles of agency

The prospective CFTC chair responded to questions from the committee chair, Senator John Boozman, who advocated for the agency to take a leading role in regulating spot digital commodity markets. The senator’s remarks came as the committee is expected to consider a market structure bill that would give the CFTC more authority to regulate crypto.

“The CFTC, and only the CFTC, should regulate the trading of digital commodities,” said Boozman.

The Arkansas senator questioned Selig about his potential approach to decentralized finance if he were to be confirmed, an issue that reportedly divided many lawmakers on the market structure bill.

“When we’re thinking about DeFi, it’s something of a buzzword, but really we should be looking to onchain markets and onchain applications and thinking about the features of these applications as well as where there’s an actual intermediary involved […]” said Selig.

He added that it was “vitally important that we have a cop on the beat” in response to a question on regulating crypto, specifically spot digital asset commodity markets.