Hurricane Milton, which intensified from a tropical storm on Sunday to a Category 5 hurricane by Monday, is a prime example of how quickly hurricanes can escalate. With sustained winds reaching 180 mph (298 km/h), Milton weakened slightly before potentially making landfall on the Florida coast around 9th or 10th October 2024. This leads to the question: just how powerful can hurricanes get?
There is a theoretical upper limit to hurricane strength, known as maximum potential intensity. While current models place this limit around 200 mph (322 km/h), it’s not fixed. As climate change progresses, ocean temperatures are expected to rise, which could push this threshold higher. According to Kerry Emanuel, an atmospheric scientist from MIT, storms exceeding 220 mph may be possible by the end of the century if carbon emissions aren’t curtailed.

What Influences Hurricane Power?

Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean waters. The higher the sea temperature, the more fuel a storm has to intensify. In addition to ocean heat, factors like wind shear and atmospheric conditions play a critical role. For example, too much wind shear can disrupt a hurricane’s structure, weakening it.
However, the trend towards stronger storms is undeniable. Research from James Kossin, a retired NOAA climate scientist, suggests that over the past few decades, the proportion of major hurricanes has increased, and more storms are reaching their full potential intensity.

Should There Be a Category 6?

Currently, the Saffir-Simpson scale caps hurricane strength at Category 5, which includes storms with sustained winds over 157 mph. However, some scientists, including Michael Wehner of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, believe a new Category 6 should be introduced for storms exceeding 192 mph

On 7th October 2024, an active sunspot, AR 3842, fired an X2.1-class solar flare, causing temporary radio blackouts across parts of North and South America and over the Pacific Ocean. This event followed another powerful flare from the same sunspot just days earlier. On 3rd October, AR 3842 unleashed the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25, an X9.05-class flare. The latest flare, recorded at 3:13 p.m. EDT, led to an increase in ultraviolet radiation, which disrupted shortwave radio communications.

Solar Flare Classifications Explained

Solar flares are classified from B-class, which is the weakest, to X-class, which represents the strongest flares. While the flare on 7th October wasn’t as intense as the historic X9.05 from last week, it still produced significant effects, including radio interference. The most powerful solar flare ever recorded occurred in 2003 and was estimated to be an X45-class event.

Potential Impacts of Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Space Weather Prediction Center confirmed that Monday’s flare included a coronal mass ejection (CME), which is currently being analysed for potential impact on Earth. While CME events typically take a few days to reach our planet, they can cause geomagnetic storms that disrupt satellites, power grids, and GPS signals.

Monitoring Solar Activity for Future Risks

Earth-directed CMEs are of particular concern as they can result in more than just auroras in the mid-latitudes. Stronger solar activity could affect crucial technology systems. NOAA continues to monitor data from its solar observation satellites, and any potential risks to infrastructure will be assessed based on the strength and direction of the CME.

By keeping an eye on such solar events, scientists aim to better predict and mitigate any harmful effects on Earth’s systems.

Look up to the night sky this October, as a remarkable celestial event is unfolding. Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, also known as C/2023 A3, is drawing nearer to Earth and is expected to brighten significantly. Astronomers anticipate this comet will become visible to the naked eye, potentially rivaling the brightness of Jupiter. The comet was first detected by astronomers at Tsuchinshan Observatory in China in January 2023 and has been making its way through the solar system since then.

A Rare Celestial Phenomenon

Comets like Tsuchinshan-ATLAS are remnants from the early solar system. As they approach the Sun, they begin to lose material, forming a glowing tail that can be seen from Earth. The comet is projected to reach its brightest point on October 9, 2024, when it will be just 44 million miles away from our planet. Gianluca Masi, an astrophysicist and scientific director of the Virtual Telescope Project, described this event as a unique opportunity for stargazers, stating that it is a chance that should not be missed.

Best Viewing Practices

For those wishing to catch a glimpse of the comet, it is best to seek out a dark location with a clear view of the western horizon. The optimal time for viewing is shortly after sunset on October 9, as the comet will be positioned in a way that enhances its brightness due to light scattering. It may appear fuzzy compared to nearby stars, making binoculars or a small telescope helpful for a better view.
After October 9, Tsuchinshan-ATLAS will still be visible, though it may not be as bright. The upcoming supermoon on October 17 could also interfere with observations.

Other Comets on the Horizon

In addition to Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, another bright comet, C/2024 S1, is expected to be visible later in the month. This period presents a rare opportunity for astronomy enthusiasts to witness multiple bright comets in succession. Michelle Nichols, director of public observing at the Adler Planetarium, encourages everyone to make an effort to see these spectacular sights.
Now is the time to prepare for this cosmic event, as it may be humanity’s last chance to witness this remarkable comet.