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OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo (L), Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman (C) and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak (R) attend an Opec-JMMC meeting in the UAE capital Abu Dhabi on September 12, 2019.
KARIM SAHIB | AFP via Getty Images

LONDON — Oil producer group OPEC has been plunged into crisis, with bitter infighting between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates raising questions about the future of the energy alliance.

OPEC and non-OPEC partners, a group of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers, abruptly abandoned plans to reconvene on Monday after last week’s meetings unexpectedly failed to broker a deal on oil production policy. The group did not set a new date to resume talks.

It means no agreement has been reached on a possible increase in crude production beyond the end of July, leaving oil markets in a state of limbo just as global fuel demand recovers from the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

“OPEC+ has been thrown its most serious crisis since last year’s ill-fated price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a research note.

“Back-channel talks reportedly are continuing, but questions about UAE’s commitment to remaining in OPEC will likely grow in the coming days.”

The UAE-Saudi dispute appeared to be about more than oil policy, Croft said, with Abu Dhabi “seemingly intent on stepping outside Saudi Arabia’s shadow and charting its own course in global affairs.”

The pandemic held them together and now the post pandemic is breaking them apart.
John Kilduff
Founding partner at Again Capital

OPEC+, which is dominated by Middle East crude producers, agreed to implement massive crude production cuts in 2020 in an effort to support oil prices when the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic fuel demand shock.

Led by Saudi Arabia, a close ally of the UAE, OPEC+ has met monthly to decide on production policy.

OPEC solidarity ‘dissolved’

The disarray comes after OPEC+ on Friday voted on a proposal to increase oil production by roughly 2 million barrels per day between August and the end of the year in 400,000 barrels per day monthly installments. It also proposed to extend the remaining output cuts to the end of 2022.

The plans were rejected by the UAE, however, which wants a higher baseline to its quota to allow for more domestic production.

“No agreement was reached and as we stand now the OPEC+ alliance, if it is still the right word to describe the group, will produce at the July level for the rest of the year,” Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note.

“The [non-] outcome of the meeting re-writes the supply-demand landscape for the near and potentially for the distant future,” he added.

The rare public stand-off between the UAE and Saudi Arabia saw energy ministers from both countries engaging in a media blitz over the weekend to outline their respective positions.

“For us, it wasn’t a good deal,” UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Suhail Al Mazrouei told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Sunday. He added that while the country was willing to support a short-term increase in oil supply, it wants better terms through 2022.

Speaking to the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television channel on Sunday, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman called for “compromise and rationality” in order to reach a deal on Monday, Reuters reported.

Separately, a White House spokesperson reportedly said on Monday that President Joe Biden’s administration was pushing for a “compromise solution.” The U.S. is not a member of OPEC (which stands for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) but it has been closely monitoring the latest round of talks given their potential impact on crude markets into next year.

The OPEC logo pictured ahead of an informal meeting between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Algiers, Algeria.
Ramzi Boudina | Reuters

Responding to the news that the OPEC+ meeting had been adjourned without a deal on Monday, John Kilduff, a founding partner at Again Capital, said: “The Opec solidarity dissolved today.”

“The pandemic held them together and now the post pandemic is breaking them apart. The UAE is sticking to their guns on wanting their baseline raised. They want to be able to produce more,” he told CNBC via email.

“Now the fun starts as to who breaks away,” Kilduff said, noting the UAE could be the “first domino” to fall.

OPEC was not immediately available to respond to a request for comment when contacted by CNBC on Tuesday.

Oil prices climb to multi-year highs

The news pushed oil prices to their highest level in nearly three years. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $77.65 a barrel on Tuesday morning, up 0.6% for the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $76.62, around 2% higher.

Oil prices rallied more than 45% in the first half of the year, supported by the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, a gradual easing of lockdown measures and massive production cuts from OPEC+.

Samuel Burman, assistant commodities economist at Capital Economics, said OPEC producers were likely to increase oil production above quota next month as member states “seek to take advantage” of higher oil prices.

In addition to a rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, he said Abu Dhabi was probably “somewhat irritated” that Russia hadn’t been complying with OPEC’s production quotas.

Burman said non-OPEC leader Russia hadn’t introduced any compensatory cuts at all and was currently overproducing by around 100,000 barrels per day. “We think that this spat involving the UAE increases the chances that the entire agreement falls apart which would clearly pose a downside risk to our near-term price forecasts.”

— CNBC’s Patti Domm contributed to this report.

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The electric Jeep Compass may be a pipe dream after all

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The electric Jeep Compass may be a pipe dream after all

Jeep is reconsidering plans to launch an electric Compass in North America. The next-gen Jeep Compass is officially on pause after Stellantis temporarily halted operations at its Brampton Assembly Plant, where the current SUV is built, to take a closer look at its strategy in North America.

Is Jeep canceling the electric Compass in the US?

Stellantis froze all activities at the Brampton plant on Thursday, including work on the next-gen Jeep Compass. The company said the sudden halt was over “today’s dynamic environment.”

In an email to Ontario newspaper Windsor Star, Stellantis’s head of communications for Canada, Lou Ann Gosselin, said, “As we navigate today’s dynamic environment, Stellantis continues to reassess its product strategy in North America.”

Gosselin added that Stellantis’s decision is “to ensure it is offering customers a range of vehicles with flexible powertrain options to best meet their needs.”

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The pause is temporary, and the decision will not impact operations at the Windsor facility. The Brampton plant has been down since December 2023 for retooling as part of Stellantis plans to build EVs, including an electric Jeep Compass.

Stellantis confirmed in October that the next-gen Jeep Compass will be available with electric, hybrid, and gas-powered powertrains as part of its “Freedom of Choice” strategy.

electric-Jeep-Compass
Jeep teases the electric Compass for the first time (Source: Stellantis)

The Compass is Jeep’s “most globally available model,” according to Gosselin. Later this year, the next-gen model will still debut in Europe, with production slated to begin in Melfi, Italy. Stellantis previously said production would expand to North America and around the world.

Jeep-electric-SUV
Jeep Wagoneer S (Source: Stellantis)

Stellantis initially planned to begin building the next-gen Jeep Compass, including an electric version for North America, in the fourth quarter of 2025. Mass production was slated for 2026.

Lana Payne, Unfor national president, the union behind workers at the plant, said the “timing of this announcement raises very serious concerns.” Payne added:

The chaos and uncertainty plaguing the North American auto industry, which is under the constant threat of tariffs and a dismantling of EV regulations from the United States, are having real-time impacts on workers and corporate decisions.

Although Stellantis didn’t mention US President Trump or tariffs as a factor, Unifor Local 444 president James Stewart told the Windsor Star, “There’s no doubt the Trump administration’s EV policies are having an effect.”

Stewart explained the pause comes as Stellantis reassesses what powertrain options to offer for the next-gen Compass.

Jeep-Recon-EV-launch
Jeep Recon EV (Source: Stellantis)

Stellantis still plans to return to a three-shift operation, aiming to start operations early next year. The plant was once home to iconic models, like the Dodge Challenger, Charger, and Chrysler 300, all of which are now discontinued. The electric Dodge Charger Daytona is made at its Windsor plant.

Jeep launched its first electric SUV in North America, the Wagoneer S, last year and will introduce the more rugged, Wrangler-like Recon EV later this year. As for an electric Jeep Compass, those of us in the US and Canada will have to wait to hear more.

Electrek’s Take

Stellantis is already struggling in North America. Sales fell another 15% last year to just over 1.3 million, with every brand, except for Fiat, selling significantly fewer vehicles.

Jeep brand sales fell 9% in the US, Ram sales fell 19%, Dodge sales fell 29%, Alfa Romeo sales fell 19%, and Chrysler sales were down 7% in 2024.

Although Trump’s tariffs threats are likely one of the biggest reasons behind Stellantis’s decision, it will likely only put it back further in the long run. The industry will still progress toward electric vehicles, while automakers stalling now will get left behind with more advanced, software-driven models from China, South Korea, etc.

Behind the Cherokee and Wrangler, the Compass was Jeep’s third best-selling vehicle in the US last year. Sales were up 16% to nearly 111,700, but Jeep will need an answer soon with new electric options hitting the market over the next few years.

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Tesla deliveries expected to go down to levels not seen in more than 2 years

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Tesla deliveries expected to go down to levels not seen in more than 2 years

Tesla deliveries are expected to decrease this quarter to levels not seen in more than two years. We have to go back to 2022 to see the delivery volume the automaker is expected to deliver.

Time to worry for Tesla shareholders?

Prediction markets are entering the game of setting expectations for Tesla’s quarterly deliveries.

These markets use financial incentives, similar to betting, to predict specific outcomes. They became extremely popular during the latest US elections and have since expanded to predict a lot more outcomes ranging from sports to business to virtually anything.

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Kalshi, one of the biggest prediction markets, has been running markets to predict Tesla’s quarterly deliveries that already gathered half a million in volumes.

It currently predicts that Tesla will deliver 359,000 vehicles in Q1 2025:

This would be down 7% year-over-year and a massive 27% down quarter-over-quarter.

In fact, you have to go back more than two years, Q3 2022, to get a quarter when Tesla delivered fewer vehicles than what is expected this quarter:

As we previously reported, Tesla’s sales are crashing in Europe this quarter – down by as much as 50%.

In China, Tesla’s most important market, sales are down slightly year-over-year.

The US is the most opaque market, and it will be the difference maker this quarter.

Electrek’s Take

This quarter would finally be the time to prove to Tesla shareholders that Elon is bad for Tesla. Unfortunately, they will blame the poor performance on the Model Y changeover, which will definitely impact Tesla negatively, but nowhere near that level.

I think it’s clear that the Elon effect is also working its magic here.

We know it since it’s not the first time Tesla has done a changeover. Now, it’s true that it’s the first time for a Model Y, which is Tesla’s best-selling vehicle, but the impact is more significant than when Tesla had factory shutdowns and supply chain issues last year.

The earnings are going to be even worse, but they will blame that on the new Model Y too.

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Rivian is recalling over 17,000 R1S and R1T vehicles due to faulty headlights

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Rivian is recalling over 17,000 R1S and R1T vehicles due to faulty headlights

Rivian issued a recall for over 17,000 vehicles on Friday due to a headlight issue that only occurs in cold weather. The recall impacts certain 2025 R1S SUV and R1T electric pickup models. Luckily, it should be an easy fix.

Rivian issues a recall for 2025 R1S and R1T vehicles

In a letter sent to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), Rivian said it planned to recall 17,260 R1S and R1T vehicles.

The safety notice comes after the company found the headlights on certain 2025 models did not meet the requirements of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) number 108, “Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Associated Equipment.”

In cold weather, the headlight low beams might not illuminate once the vehicle is started. A message on the driver display will pop up, saying, “Low beam lights not working.” The issue only occurred in colder climates.

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Rivian said it’s unaware of any crashes, injuries, or fatalities related to the recall. The 2025 R1S and R1T models were built with incorrectly figured parts from its supplier between April 29, 2024, and February 03, 2025.

Rivian-recall-R1S-R1T
Rivian R1T (left) and R1S (right) electric vehicles (Source: Rivian)

For those impacted, Rivian will replace the headlight control module free of charge. Owner notification letters are expected to be mailed out on March 28, 2025.

If you have questions, you can contact Rivian’s customer service at 1-888-748-4261. Rivian’s recall number is FSAM-1612. You can also contact the NHTSA hotline at 888-327-4236 or visit NHTSA.gov for more information.

Rivian-recall-R1S-R1T
Production at Rivian’s Normal, IL plant (Source: Rivian)

The recall comes after Rivian posted its first positive gross profit in the fourth quarter, a big milestone as the EV maker aims to hit its next growth stage.

Rivian delivered 51,579 vehicles in 2024, but as it prepares to introduce its mass-market R2 electric SUV, the company expects a slight dip in 2025, forecasting between 46,000 and 51,000. A big part of this is due to plans to retool its Normal, IL manufacturing plant to prepare for the R2, which will launch in the first half of 2026. The midsize electric SUV will start at around $45,000, or almost half the R1S ($77,700) and R1T ($71,700).

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