OPEC discord could unleash a new level of volatility in oil market

Published

4 years ago

July 12, 2021

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Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud, Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia arrives for the 178th meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, Austria, on March 6, 2020.

Alex Halad | AFP | Getty Images

Disagreement within OPEC could trigger a more a volatile period for oil, with prices jumping on lack of new supply or sinking suddenly if member countries decide to release crude independently.

Oil prices initially surged to a six-year high on news that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, ended their meeting Monday with no action and no new meeting date. A proposed plan by OPEC, Russia and other allies to bring 400,000 barrels a day back to the market was disrupted by the United Arab Emirates’ objection to other aspects of the deal.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August traded as high as $76.98 Tuesday before falling back to settle down 2.4% at $74.53 per barrel. Many analysts had expected oil to rise on the discord among members of OPEC, and say prices could still climb despite the sell-off.

“It’s going to get worse before it gets better. I still think $85 to $90 per barrel should be the upper end,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. “You’ll see more oil produced. They’re not going to go crazy, but they’re not going to live within the current structures. Russia will lead the charge.”

“It could become a free for all,” he said.

Some analysts had already expected oil spikes into the $100 per barrel range over the course of the next year. The feuding between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates opens a new fissure in OPEC, which now means oil could also tank if members decide to open the spigots.

“Realistically, I don’t think anybody wants to go this way. I suspect cooler heads or rational thinking will prevail,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Melek said there are some wild cards for OPEC that could affect prices. A major one is whether the U.S. and Iran strike a deal on Iran’s nuclear programming, allowing it to return more than 1 million barrels a day back to the market.

Another risk is whether the variants of the Covid virus could affect the economy’s recovery and crimp demand for travel.

OPEC and its partners were able to agree to return 400,000 barrels a day to the market starting in August. But the UAE sought to also have its production baseline increased from 3.1 million barrels a day to 3.8 million barrels, and that was the sticking point with Saudi Arabia.

After three days of meetings, there was also a deadlock over whether the deal would include an extension of the the plan to the end of 2022, which was opposed by the UAE. Without an agreement, 5.8 million barrels a day, cut from production last year, will remain off the market even as demand rises.

“I think OPEC event risk is back. We had pretty smooth sailing this year, and now this was not priced at all,” said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “Once people start focusing on 5.8 million barrels off the market, I think they might get nervous. How they come back will be important.” The market will be affected much differently based on whether the oil trickles back or the producing countries flood the market with supply.

The friction between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, formerly strong OPEC allies, comes at a time when the market is increasingly in need of more supply. Analysts expect the world is short of upwards of 2 million barrels a day, based on current production levels and increasing demand. That means oil is being taken from storage, and there could be increasing pressure on prices as the economy rebounds and demand rises.

The U.S. is producing about 2 million barrels a day less than it did pre-Covid, and output has remained at a steady level even as prices rise. The U.S. industry has become more disciplined, due to demands from shareholders and lenders. Oil companies also face sustainability demands and pressure to reduce carbon.

But U.S. drillers do have capacity to increase drilling. “Certainly, $90 oil would encourage a lot of drilling in not only the Permian, but in the Bakken and Rockies,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates said. “I think as prices creep up, one of the things [OPEC+ members] are worried about is a spike higher that would encourage lots of drilling in other parts of the world.”

Lipow said OPEC will also be careful about falling prices and the potential for even lower levels. “If prices fall $5 a barrel, they’ll come to an agreement to signal the market they’re not going to flood it with supplies,” he added.

It also comes as gasoline prices continue to rise and are nearly $1 per gallon higher than this time last year. The national average for unleaded was $3.13 per unleaded gasoline Tuesday, following a weekend where prices at the pump were the highest in seven years for the Fourth of July holiday, according to AAA. If crude prices continue to rise, so will gasoline prices.

“I think gasoline prices could remain above $3 a gallon for the balance of the summer,” said Lipow.

The White House Tuesday said there have been a number of high-level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other partners.

“If prices were rising, I think that would be more of a catalyst for the White House to get involved,” said Croft. “If you have a sell-off you may have people in the administration saying why do I need to be involved in this.”

Kilduff said he does not think the situation will last much longer. “I think we’re in the last innings of it right now. I’m targeting in mid-August, you’re going to start to see gasoline demand going down because kids are going back to school. Refiners will start to dial back,” he said.

Environment

China-made panels drive Africa’s 15 GW solar import milestone

Published

9 hours ago

August 25, 2025

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China-made panels drive Africa’s 15 GW solar import milestone

Solar is taking off across Africa in a big way. According to a new analysis of China’s solar panel exports data from energy think tank Ember, solar panel imports into the continent jumped 60% in the 12 months through June 2025, setting a record that could reshape electricity systems in many countries.

In that period, Africa imported 15,032 megawatts (MW) of solar panels, up from 9,379 MW the year before. While South Africa has dominated past surges, this wave is happening across the map: 20 countries set new import records, and 25 countries each brought in at least 100 MW, compared to just 15 a year earlier.

Nigeria overtook Egypt to become the second-largest importer with 1,721 MW, while Algeria surged into third with 1,199 MW. Growth rates in some countries were staggering: Algeria’s imports jumped 33-fold, Zambia’s eightfold, Botswana’s sevenfold, and Sudan’s sixfold. Liberia, the DRC, Benin, Angola, and Ethiopia all more than tripled their imports.

Still, import numbers don’t tell the whole story. It’s unclear how many of these panels have been installed yet. Muhammad Mustafa Amjad of Renewables First, an energy transition think tank in Pakistan, pointed out that countries risk losing valuable time and opportunities without proper tracking. “Africa’s transition will happen regardless,” he said, “but with timely data it can be more equitable, planned, and inclusive.”

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If these panels do get installed, the impact could be massive. In Sierra Leone, the past year’s imports alone could cover 61% of the country’s 2023 electricity generation. For Chad, it’s 49%. Liberia, Somalia, Eritrea, Togo, and Benin could all boost generation by more than 10% compared to 2023, and 16 countries could see increases of over 5%.

The economic case is also strong. In Nigeria, solar savings from replacing diesel could repay panel costs in just six months, or even less in other countries. In fact, in nine of Africa’s top 10 solar panel importers, the value of imported refined petroleum outweighed solar imports by factors of between 30 to 107.

Ember’s chief analyst, Dave Jones, called the surge “a pivotal moment,” urging more research and reporting to keep pace with the rapid rise to “ensure the world’s cheapest electricity source fulfills its vast potential to transform the African continent.”

The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.

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Environment

Hyundai and Kia are growing fast in the US, and EVs are leading the way

Published

11 hours ago

August 25, 2025

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Hyundai and Kia are growing fast in the US, and EVs are leading the way

Hyundai and Kia vehicles are popping up on US roads more than ever, and a lot of it has to do with EVs. The South Korean auto giants just hit another milestone as they gear up to introduce several new models.

Hyundai and Kia bet on EVs, hybrids for growth in the US

After launching their first hybrid vehicles in the US in 2011, the Sonata and K5, Hyundai and Kia have come a long way.

Today, two out of ten Hyundai or Kia models sold in the US are considered “eco-friendly,” including electric (EV), hybrid, plug-in hybrid (PHEV), and fuel cell electric (FCEV) vehicles.

After 14 years, Hyundai and Kia announced on Monday that combined, they have now sold over 1.5 million eco-friendly cars in the US. In a statement, the company said it continues seeing strong demand for several models, including the Tucson Hybrid, IONIQ 5, and Niro Hybrid.

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Although 14 years is a relatively long time, in the first few years, they only offered a few models. It took 11 years to reach the 500,000 mark in 2022, and in just three years, they’ve since tripled it.

Since reaching 100,000 in annual sales in 2021, brand sales of eco-friendly cars have grown rapidly. Hyundai and Kia sold 182,627 units in 2022, 278,122 units in 2023, and 364,441 units in 2024. This year, they sold over 221,500 in the first six months, up 20% from the same period in 2024.

Hybrids accounted for over 1.1 million, followed by electric vehicles with nearly 375,000, and FCEVs at just over 1,850 units sold.

The Hyundai Tucson Hybrid and Kia Niro Hybrid are the brand’s top-selling eco-friendly cars in the US. Hyundai’s Sonata Hybrid and IONIQ 5 ranked second and fourth. Meanwhile, the Kia Sportage Hybrid and Sorento Hybrid placed third and fifth.

Hyundai and Kia offer 19 eco-friendly vehicles in the US, including eight hybrid and PHEVs, 10 EVs, and just one FCEV.

Both brands sold more vehicles in the US in the first half of the year than ever. With Hyundai now building vehicles at its new EV plant in Georgia, including the 2025 IONIQ 5 and 2026 IONIQ 9, the automaker expects the growth to continue. Kia assembles the EV6 and EV9 at a separate plant in Georgia, and will introduce the EV4, its first electric sedan, in early 2026.

Based on the advanced E-GMP platform, Hyundai and Kia’s electric vehicles offer some of the longest driving ranges, fastest charging speeds, and remain surprisingly affordable.

With leases starting as low as $159 per month, the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 is one of the most affordable EV lease deals in the US. Even the three-row IONIQ 9 is listed with monthly leases as low as $299. That’s pretty cheap for a nearly $60,000 three-row electric SUV.

Hyundai will continue to offer hybrids in response to the changing policies under the Trump Administration. It also plans to add hybrid production in Georgia, starting next year.

Looking to check one out for yourself? We can help you find vehicles in your area. You can use our links below to view Hyundai and Kia models near you.

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Environment

Save big on heat pumps and solar before Washington pulls the plug

Published

13 hours ago

August 25, 2025

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Save big on heat pumps and solar before Washington pulls the plug

Three years after the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) became law, Rewiring America is rolling out a new effort to make sure homeowners don’t miss out on major savings.

The Save on Better Appliances campaign is designed to help families take advantage of federal energy tax credits before they expire at the end of 2025, while also showing how modern electric appliances can cut long-term energy costs.

With utility bills climbing, the group is highlighting the benefits of heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, rooftop solar, and other upgrades that can keep homes comfortable while protecting against future price spikes. For many households, energy-efficient appliances are one of the few ways to bring bills under control – and that value remains even after federal incentives are gone.

Right now, homeowners can still access the federal Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (25C) and Residential Clean Energy Credit (25D). On top of that, thousands of state, local, and utility-level incentives are available to help offset upfront costs.

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Ari Matusiak, CEO of Rewiring America, pointed out that the IRA incentives were never meant to last forever:

Congress’s decision to repeal them prematurely means households should act fast. But the savings, comfort, and long-term value of these upgrades remain. For homeowners ready to act, we have the tools to help. And for those who need more time, we’re working to expand your options and ensure that these upgrades make financial sense whenever the moment is right.

What the campaign offers

The Save on Better Appliances campaign runs through October and includes:

A central hub where homeowners can learn about the expiring credits, check out state, local, and utility incentives, and connect with vetted contractors.
Weekly Zoom drop-in sessions with Certified Electric Coaches, starting September 3, to answer questions about home upgrades.
Contractor tools, including Rewiring America’s Contractor Finder, soon to be integrated with the BetterHVAC directory for more trusted installer options.
A new Single-Project Personal Electrification Planner to help homeowners map out common projects like heat pumps, energy audits, and electrical upgrades.

“I’ve been doing HVAC installations for the past 40 years, and I can tell you that I’ve seen firsthand how the 25C tax credit has made heat pumps, the most efficient HVAC technology, more affordable and accessible for homeowners,” said Scotty Libby, owner of Maine-based Royal River Heat Pumps. “Homeowners should talk to their local contractors now if they want to upgrade their HVAC, take advantage of the tax credit, and lock in the potential long-term energy savings a heat pump would provide.”

Beyond tax credits

Rewiring America is also working with manufacturers, contractors, and lenders to make upgrades more affordable, even without federal help. In Rhode Island and Colorado, families can already access specially priced heat pump packages, with more states on the way. These deals will expand in 2026 and beyond, lowering upfront costs no matter what happens in Washington.

Across the country, state agencies, utilities, and local nonprofits are already leading creative programs to help families save money, find trusted contractors, and begin electrifying their homes. Rewiring America says this campaign is about amplifying that work and making it easier for households to take the first step.

“Tax credits may expire, but the benefits of better HVAC – lower bills, healthier homes, and lasting comfort – are here to stay. That’s why we’re supporting Rewiring America’s campaign,” said Bill Spohn, Sr., president of the Better HVAC Alliance.

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