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OPEC and its allies left the oil market hanging on Monday when they indefinitely postponed talks to resolve a disagreement over production curbs.

Crude prices first surged to six-year highs, then retreated, and uncertainty continues to hang over future OPEC+ policy.

But at least one energy analyst expects a breakthrough to come soon.

“I think it’s highly likely [that] it’s going to resolve itself,” said Stephen Schork, a principal advisor at energy analysis company The Schork Group.

OPEC is the strongest it has been in years, and they would not want to “upset the applecart,” he told “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday.

Conflict in OPEC

The energy alliance met last week to discuss output policy, but the UAE unexpectedly blocked proposals to increase supply and extend the remaining production cuts to the end of 2022, instead of April 2022 as previously agreed.

Suhail Al Mazrouei, UAE’s energy minister, told CNBC on Sunday that it “wasn’t a good deal” because the output cuts were measured against a baseline of 2018 production levels.

The country has increased its production capacity, but cannot pump more oil while the OPEC agreement remains in place. It wants this baseline to be revised.

An OPEC sign hangs outside the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 29, 2017.
Akos Stiller | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Russia is reportedly attempting to negotiate a resolution.

Neil Beveridge, a senior oil analyst at Bernstein, said OPEC policy has been focused on controlling supply to manage prices.

But the UAE sees that peak oil demand is “staring OPEC in the face” and is considering chasing market share instead of high energy prices, he told “Capital Connection” on Thursday, and that’s why it wants to be given a higher quota.

$50 oil versus $100 oil

Observers say two scenarios are possible if OPEC doesn’t reach a new deal. The first is that of a price collapse.

Beveridge noted that OPEC is sitting on nearly 6 million barrels of spare capacity now. If countries decide to increase supply and go for market share, the downside could be “significant,” he said.

“We can see oil prices certainly drop back below $50 again … pretty quickly, if that [happens],” he said.

Why mess around with, potentially, a price war?
Stephen Schork
The Schork Group

The second scenario is one where countries continue to produce oil according to the quotas that were previously agreed on. Oil prices would spike, possibly as high as $100 per barrel, with demand outpacing supply.

OPEC probably doesn’t want to rock the boat in either direction, according to Schork.

“They are in a very nice position at this point,” he said. “Why mess around with, potentially, a price war?”

On the other hand, too-high oil prices are not ideal. “The higher we go, you’ll start to hear the political winds turn against them, especially here in the United States,” he added.

Resolution?

Schork said he believes the UAE will be allowed to increase production, and the country will stick to their quota.

“They just want a bigger share of OPEC’s prize,” he said.

Bernstein’s Beveridge, however, said there is a risk that other OPEC+ members will want to raise their production quotas.

“That could lead to a whole unravelling of the OPEC agreement that we have … and that would certainly point to very significant downside [for] prices,” he said.

The deal only works if everyone is committed to it, he said, but noted that there has been “very good compliance” from OPEC members over the last 12 months.

In the long term, Schork said the oil-producing alliance would benefit from the energy transition.

“As western oil companies trip over themselves in the years ahead — and they’re already doing it now — to decarbonize, OPEC’s share of the global oil market is going to continue to grow,” he said, adding that oil demand is likely to increase until the end of the decade.

“It behooves all players on the OPEC side to play nicely, so yes I do think we’ll see a resolution to the situation sooner rather than later,” he said.

— CNBC’s Sam Meredith, Weizhen Tan and Dan Murphy contributed to this report

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The electric Jeep Compass may be a pipe dream after all

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The electric Jeep Compass may be a pipe dream after all

Jeep is reconsidering plans to launch an electric Compass in North America. The next-gen Jeep Compass is officially on pause after Stellantis temporarily halted operations at its Brampton Assembly Plant, where the current SUV is built, to take a closer look at its strategy in North America.

Is Jeep canceling the electric Compass in the US?

Stellantis froze all activities at the Brampton plant on Thursday, including work on the next-gen Jeep Compass. The company said the sudden halt was over “today’s dynamic environment.”

In an email to Ontario newspaper Windsor Star, Stellantis’s head of communications for Canada, Lou Ann Gosselin, said, “As we navigate today’s dynamic environment, Stellantis continues to reassess its product strategy in North America.”

Gosselin added that Stellantis’s decision is “to ensure it is offering customers a range of vehicles with flexible powertrain options to best meet their needs.”

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The pause is temporary, and the decision will not impact operations at the Windsor facility. The Brampton plant has been down since December 2023 for retooling as part of Stellantis plans to build EVs, including an electric Jeep Compass.

Stellantis confirmed in October that the next-gen Jeep Compass will be available with electric, hybrid, and gas-powered powertrains as part of its “Freedom of Choice” strategy.

electric-Jeep-Compass
Jeep teases the electric Compass for the first time (Source: Stellantis)

The Compass is Jeep’s “most globally available model,” according to Gosselin. Later this year, the next-gen model will still debut in Europe, with production slated to begin in Melfi, Italy. Stellantis previously said production would expand to North America and around the world.

Jeep-electric-SUV
Jeep Wagoneer S (Source: Stellantis)

Stellantis initially planned to begin building the next-gen Jeep Compass, including an electric version for North America, in the fourth quarter of 2025. Mass production was slated for 2026.

Lana Payne, Unfor national president, the union behind workers at the plant, said the “timing of this announcement raises very serious concerns.” Payne added:

The chaos and uncertainty plaguing the North American auto industry, which is under the constant threat of tariffs and a dismantling of EV regulations from the United States, are having real-time impacts on workers and corporate decisions.

Although Stellantis didn’t mention US President Trump or tariffs as a factor, Unifor Local 444 president James Stewart told the Windsor Star, “There’s no doubt the Trump administration’s EV policies are having an effect.”

Stewart explained the pause comes as Stellantis reassesses what powertrain options to offer for the next-gen Compass.

Jeep-Recon-EV-launch
Jeep Recon EV (Source: Stellantis)

Stellantis still plans to return to a three-shift operation, aiming to start operations early next year. The plant was once home to iconic models, like the Dodge Challenger, Charger, and Chrysler 300, all of which are now discontinued. The electric Dodge Charger Daytona is made at its Windsor plant.

Jeep launched its first electric SUV in North America, the Wagoneer S, last year and will introduce the more rugged, Wrangler-like Recon EV later this year. As for an electric Jeep Compass, those of us in the US and Canada will have to wait to hear more.

Electrek’s Take

Stellantis is already struggling in North America. Sales fell another 15% last year to just over 1.3 million, with every brand, except for Fiat, selling significantly fewer vehicles.

Jeep brand sales fell 9% in the US, Ram sales fell 19%, Dodge sales fell 29%, Alfa Romeo sales fell 19%, and Chrysler sales were down 7% in 2024.

Although Trump’s tariffs threats are likely one of the biggest reasons behind Stellantis’s decision, it will likely only put it back further in the long run. The industry will still progress toward electric vehicles, while automakers stalling now will get left behind with more advanced, software-driven models from China, South Korea, etc.

Behind the Cherokee and Wrangler, the Compass was Jeep’s third best-selling vehicle in the US last year. Sales were up 16% to nearly 111,700, but Jeep will need an answer soon with new electric options hitting the market over the next few years.

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Tesla deliveries expected to go down to levels not seen in more than 2 years

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Tesla deliveries expected to go down to levels not seen in more than 2 years

Tesla deliveries are expected to decrease this quarter to levels not seen in more than two years. We have to go back to 2022 to see the delivery volume the automaker is expected to deliver.

Time to worry for Tesla shareholders?

Prediction markets are entering the game of setting expectations for Tesla’s quarterly deliveries.

These markets use financial incentives, similar to betting, to predict specific outcomes. They became extremely popular during the latest US elections and have since expanded to predict a lot more outcomes ranging from sports to business to virtually anything.

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Kalshi, one of the biggest prediction markets, has been running markets to predict Tesla’s quarterly deliveries that already gathered half a million in volumes.

It currently predicts that Tesla will deliver 359,000 vehicles in Q1 2025:

This would be down 7% year-over-year and a massive 27% down quarter-over-quarter.

In fact, you have to go back more than two years, Q3 2022, to get a quarter when Tesla delivered fewer vehicles than what is expected this quarter:

As we previously reported, Tesla’s sales are crashing in Europe this quarter – down by as much as 50%.

In China, Tesla’s most important market, sales are down slightly year-over-year.

The US is the most opaque market, and it will be the difference maker this quarter.

Electrek’s Take

This quarter would finally be the time to prove to Tesla shareholders that Elon is bad for Tesla. Unfortunately, they will blame the poor performance on the Model Y changeover, which will definitely impact Tesla negatively, but nowhere near that level.

I think it’s clear that the Elon effect is also working its magic here.

We know it since it’s not the first time Tesla has done a changeover. Now, it’s true that it’s the first time for a Model Y, which is Tesla’s best-selling vehicle, but the impact is more significant than when Tesla had factory shutdowns and supply chain issues last year.

The earnings are going to be even worse, but they will blame that on the new Model Y too.

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Rivian is recalling over 17,000 R1S and R1T vehicles due to faulty headlights

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Rivian is recalling over 17,000 R1S and R1T vehicles due to faulty headlights

Rivian issued a recall for over 17,000 vehicles on Friday due to a headlight issue that only occurs in cold weather. The recall impacts certain 2025 R1S SUV and R1T electric pickup models. Luckily, it should be an easy fix.

Rivian issues a recall for 2025 R1S and R1T vehicles

In a letter sent to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), Rivian said it planned to recall 17,260 R1S and R1T vehicles.

The safety notice comes after the company found the headlights on certain 2025 models did not meet the requirements of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) number 108, “Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Associated Equipment.”

In cold weather, the headlight low beams might not illuminate once the vehicle is started. A message on the driver display will pop up, saying, “Low beam lights not working.” The issue only occurred in colder climates.

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Rivian said it’s unaware of any crashes, injuries, or fatalities related to the recall. The 2025 R1S and R1T models were built with incorrectly figured parts from its supplier between April 29, 2024, and February 03, 2025.

Rivian-recall-R1S-R1T
Rivian R1T (left) and R1S (right) electric vehicles (Source: Rivian)

For those impacted, Rivian will replace the headlight control module free of charge. Owner notification letters are expected to be mailed out on March 28, 2025.

If you have questions, you can contact Rivian’s customer service at 1-888-748-4261. Rivian’s recall number is FSAM-1612. You can also contact the NHTSA hotline at 888-327-4236 or visit NHTSA.gov for more information.

Rivian-recall-R1S-R1T
Production at Rivian’s Normal, IL plant (Source: Rivian)

The recall comes after Rivian posted its first positive gross profit in the fourth quarter, a big milestone as the EV maker aims to hit its next growth stage.

Rivian delivered 51,579 vehicles in 2024, but as it prepares to introduce its mass-market R2 electric SUV, the company expects a slight dip in 2025, forecasting between 46,000 and 51,000. A big part of this is due to plans to retool its Normal, IL manufacturing plant to prepare for the R2, which will launch in the first half of 2026. The midsize electric SUV will start at around $45,000, or almost half the R1S ($77,700) and R1T ($71,700).

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