The OPEC+ spat is likely to be resolved ‘sooner rather than later,’ energy analyst says

Published

4 years ago

July 12, 2021

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OPEC and its allies left the oil market hanging on Monday when they indefinitely postponed talks to resolve a disagreement over production curbs.

Crude prices first surged to six-year highs, then retreated, and uncertainty continues to hang over future OPEC+ policy.

But at least one energy analyst expects a breakthrough to come soon.

“I think it’s highly likely [that] it’s going to resolve itself,” said Stephen Schork, a principal advisor at energy analysis company The Schork Group.

OPEC is the strongest it has been in years, and they would not want to “upset the applecart,” he told “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday.

Conflict in OPEC

The energy alliance met last week to discuss output policy, but the UAE unexpectedly blocked proposals to increase supply and extend the remaining production cuts to the end of 2022, instead of April 2022 as previously agreed.

Suhail Al Mazrouei, UAE’s energy minister, told CNBC on Sunday that it “wasn’t a good deal” because the output cuts were measured against a baseline of 2018 production levels.

The country has increased its production capacity, but cannot pump more oil while the OPEC agreement remains in place. It wants this baseline to be revised.

An OPEC sign hangs outside the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 29, 2017.

Akos Stiller | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Russia is reportedly attempting to negotiate a resolution.

Neil Beveridge, a senior oil analyst at Bernstein, said OPEC policy has been focused on controlling supply to manage prices.

But the UAE sees that peak oil demand is “staring OPEC in the face” and is considering chasing market share instead of high energy prices, he told “Capital Connection” on Thursday, and that’s why it wants to be given a higher quota.

$50 oil versus $100 oil

Observers say two scenarios are possible if OPEC doesn’t reach a new deal. The first is that of a price collapse.

Beveridge noted that OPEC is sitting on nearly 6 million barrels of spare capacity now. If countries decide to increase supply and go for market share, the downside could be “significant,” he said.

“We can see oil prices certainly drop back below $50 again … pretty quickly, if that [happens],” he said.

Why mess around with, potentially, a price war?

Stephen Schork

The Schork Group

The second scenario is one where countries continue to produce oil according to the quotas that were previously agreed on. Oil prices would spike, possibly as high as $100 per barrel, with demand outpacing supply.

OPEC probably doesn’t want to rock the boat in either direction, according to Schork.

“They are in a very nice position at this point,” he said. “Why mess around with, potentially, a price war?”

On the other hand, too-high oil prices are not ideal. “The higher we go, you’ll start to hear the political winds turn against them, especially here in the United States,” he added.

Resolution?

Schork said he believes the UAE will be allowed to increase production, and the country will stick to their quota.

“They just want a bigger share of OPEC’s prize,” he said.

Bernstein’s Beveridge, however, said there is a risk that other OPEC+ members will want to raise their production quotas.

“That could lead to a whole unravelling of the OPEC agreement that we have … and that would certainly point to very significant downside [for] prices,” he said.

The deal only works if everyone is committed to it, he said, but noted that there has been “very good compliance” from OPEC members over the last 12 months.

In the long term, Schork said the oil-producing alliance would benefit from the energy transition.

“As western oil companies trip over themselves in the years ahead — and they’re already doing it now — to decarbonize, OPEC’s share of the global oil market is going to continue to grow,” he said, adding that oil demand is likely to increase until the end of the decade.

“It behooves all players on the OPEC side to play nicely, so yes I do think we’ll see a resolution to the situation sooner rather than later,” he said.

— CNBC’s Sam Meredith, Weizhen Tan and Dan Murphy contributed to this report

Environment

Quad-motor Rivian debuts, Lucid kills range anxiety, and no, EV sales aren’t down

Published

5 hours ago

July 10, 2025

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Quad-motor Rivian debuts, Lucid kills range anxiety, and no, EV sales aren't down

On today’s exciting episode of Quick Charge, we don’t even mention “you know who,” focusing instead on EV news from Rivian, Lucid, Nissan, Ford, and what it takes to make a MAN in the heavy truck space. Check it out!

Sure, Nissan is pushing back production estimates on its yet-to-begin-production Nissan LEAF and Ford’s EV sales were down significantly in Q2, but there’s more to the story than the “Faux News” crowd would have you believe. Plus: some new electric success stories from Porsche and a disappointing (but still cool) dive into some new home backup battery tech.

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New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (most weeks, anyway). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.

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Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.

he 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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Environment

EVs are 73% cleaner than gas cars – even with battery production

Published

9 hours ago

July 9, 2025

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EVs are 73% cleaner than gas cars – even with battery production

2025-Audi-Q4-e-tron — 2025 Audi Q4 e-tron (Source: Audi)

Battery electric cars sold today in Europe produce 73% less life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions than gas cars, even when factoring in production, according to new research from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). That’s a big improvement from 2021, when the gap was 59%.

Meanwhile, hybrids and plug-in hybrids haven’t made much progress. The study confirms what clean transportation advocates have been saying for years: If Europe wants to seriously slash emissions from its dirtiest mode of transport – ICE passenger cars, which pump out nearly 75% of the sector’s pollution – it needs to go all-in on battery EVs.

“Battery electric cars in Europe are getting cleaner faster than we expected and outperform all other technologies, including hybrids and plug-in hybrids,” said ICCT researcher Dr. Marta Negri. Credit the continent’s rapid shift to renewables and the higher energy efficiency of EVs.

The makeup of the EU’s power grid is changing fast. By 2025, renewables are expected to generate 56% of Europe’s electricity, up from 38% in 2020. And that’s just the beginning: the share could hit 86% by 2045. Since cars bought today could still be on the road two decades from now, the growing use of clean electricity will only boost EVs’ climate benefits over time.

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Gas-powered cars, on the other hand, will stay mostly tied to fossil fuels as the cost and availability of biofuels and e-fuels are still uncertain.

Hybrids and plug-in hybrids only cut lifetime emissions by 20% and 30%, respectively, compared to gas cars. That’s partly because plug-in hybrids tend to run on gas more than expected. So while hybrids aren’t useless, they’re just not good enough if we’re serious about climate goals.

Countering EV myths with hard data

There’s been a lot of noise lately about whether EVs are really that green. The ICCT study takes aim at the bad data and misleading claims floating around, like ignoring how the grid gets cleaner over time or using unrealistic gas mileage figures.

It’s true that manufacturing EVs creates more emissions upfront – about 40% more than making a gas car, mostly due to the battery. But EVs make up for it quickly: that extra emissions load is usually wiped out after about 17,000 km (10,563 miles) of driving, which most drivers hit in a year or two.

“We’ve recently seen auto industry leaders misrepresenting the emissions math on hybrids,” said Dr. Georg Bieker, senior researcher at the ICCT. “But life-cycle analysis is not a choose-your-own-adventure exercise.”

ICCT’s new analysis includes emissions from vehicle and battery production and recycling, fuel and electricity production, and fuel consumption and maintenance. It even adjusts for how the electricity mix will change in the coming years – a key detail when measuring plug-in hybrid performance.

The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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Environment

Here’s our closest look at the Kia EV2 caught testing in the Alps [Video]

Published

9 hours ago

July 9, 2025

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Here's our closest look at the Kia EV2 caught testing in the Alps [Video]

The EV2 may be Kia’s smallest electric vehicle, but it has a big presence on the road. Kia promises it won’t feel so small when you’re inside, thanks to clever storage and flexible seating. After a prototype was spotted testing in the Alps, we are getting our closest look at the Kia EV2 so far.

Kia EV2 spotted in the Alps offers our closest look yet

Kia first unveiled the Concept EV2 during its 2025 EV Day event (see our recap of the event) in April, a preview of its upcoming entry-level electric SUV.

Despite its small size, Kia claims it will “redefine urban electric mobility” with new innovative features and more. Kia has yet to say exactly how big it will be, but given it will sit below the EV3, it’s expected to be around 4,000 mm (157″) in length. The EV3 is 4,300 mm (169.3″) in length.

Looking at it from the side, it sits much higher than you’d expect, similar to Kia’s larger EV9. During an exclusive event at Milan Design Week in April, Kia gave a sneak peek of the interior.

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Kia said the interior is inspired by a “picnic in the city,” or in other words, a retreat from the busy city life. With a flat-floor design and flexible seating, you can quite literally have a picnic in the city.

Although we’ve seen the EV2 out in public testing a few times, a new video provides the closest look at Kia’s upcoming electric SUV.

The video, courtesy of CarSpyMedia, shows an EV2 prototype testing in the Alps with European license plates. There’s also a “Testfahrt” sticker on the back, which translates to “Test Car” in German.

[embedded content]

Kia EV2 entry-level EV caught testing in the Alps (Source: CarSpyMedia)

As the prototype drives by, you can get a good look at it from all angles. Like in past sightings, the front features stacked vertical headlights with Kia’s signature Star Map lighting. Even the rear lights appear to be identical to those of the concept.

The interior will feature Kia’s next-gen ccNC (connected car Navigation Cockpit) infotainment system. The setup includes dual 12.3″ instrument clusters and infotainment screens in a curved panoramic display. Depending on the model, it could also include an added 5.3″ climate control screen.

Last month, a crossover coupe-like model was spotted on a car carrier in Korea, hinting at a new variant. The new model featured a design similar to that of the Genesis GV60.

Kia’s CEO, Ho Sung Song, also recently told Autocar that a smaller, more affordable EV was in the works to sit below the EV2. Song said the new EV, priced under €25,000 ($30,000), was “one area we are studying and developing.”

With the EV4 and EV5 launching this year, followed by the EV2 in 2026, it could be closer toward the end of the decade before we see it hit the market. Next-gen EV6 and EV9 models are also due out around then.

The Kia EV2 is set to launch in Europe and other global regions in 2026. Unfortunately, it’s not expected to make the trip to the US.

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