More than a quarter of the Amazon basin is now releasing more carbon than it absorbs, according to a comprehensive study.
Brazilian researchers flew an aircraft over the rainforest every two weeks for nine years, taking air samples from just above the canopy all the way up to 4.5km.
They found that the eastern side of the Amazon, which accounts for around 28% of the total area, is losing more carbon as a result of deforestation than is being removed from the atmosphere by the growth of trees.
Some of the carbon is lost through fires, deliberately started to clear the forest for agriculture.
Image: An area that covers 28% of the Amazon is losing more carbon as a result of deforestation than it is removing from the atmosphere by the growth of trees
But the knock-on effect of an absence of trees is local climate change, with rising temperatures and reduced rainfall accelerating the decline of surrounding areas of forest. Parts of the Amazon have flipped from being a carbon sink to a carbon source.
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Mark Wright, director of science for conservation charity WWF, told Sky News that the research showed the Amazon is at a tipping point, where great swathes of forest could be destroyed by self-perpetuating dieback.
“We’re no longer talking about some dystopian future, this is stuff we can see on the ground, these changes are happening here and now,” he said.
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“It’s a warning of what is still come to come.
“We know we are moving towards that inextricable situation where the forest will slowly transform into a more grass-like savannah ecosystem and as a result will push more carbon into the atmosphere.”
The world’s plants have absorbed 25% of fossil fuel emissions since 1960, helping to reduce global warming.
The Amazon rainforest has taken up a significant proportion, storing an estimated 123 billion tonnes in the trees and other vegetation.
But the new research suggests it can’t be relied on in future to mop up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere because human activity is disrupting the delicate ecosystem.
The researchers, led by National Institute for Space Research in Brazil, found that on the lush western side of the Amazon basin slightly more carbon is being absorbed through photosynthesis than is being released by dead trees and human impact on the forest.
But it was a significantly different story on the eastern side, where 27% of the forest has been lost, more than twice the rate in the west.
Results published in the journal Nature show that the area has switched from being a carbon sink to a net source during the nine years of the study, with local climate change destabilising the delicate ecosystem.
The researchers say that in the drier months of August to October the temperature in the eastern Amazon has increased by between 1.9C and 2.5C over 40 years. Rainfall has decreased by between 24% and 34%.
The researchers say there is a direct link between the changing climate and tree loss.
Image: Human activity is disrupting the Amazon’s delicate ecosystem
The Amazon receives an average of more than 2m of rain a year, with between a quarter and a third of it resulting from moisture released by trees.
With a shrinking forest in the east the atmosphere is drier, stunting the growth of remaining trees and reducing the amount of carbon they absorb.
Some scientists have predicted that if the Amazon reaches a tipping point it will retreat to cover only a relatively small area in the west, with a devastating impact on biodiversity and atmospheric carbon.
But Mark Wright said: “The future is potentially very, very bleak, but it’s not too late.
“If we follow the science, we can clearly see there is scope to do really good agricultural development in Brazil, in a way that will boost their economy, in a way that does not require further degradation.
“If we can concentrate on restoring those lands there is still hope for preventing that kind of runaway process.
“But we have to act now, we can’t keep pushing this off.”
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The 69-year-old Chicago-born cardinal was not seen as a frontrunner but quickly secured the required two-thirds majority.
There was jubilation in St Peter’s Square when white smoke emerged and about an hour later the Pope’s identity was revealed when he stepped onto the balcony.
The choice of Leo is the first time the name has been used since Leo XII – the pope from 1878 to 1903.
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1:25
Moment new pope emerges on balcony
Image: People celebrated the new pope’s announcement in St Peter’s Square. Pic: Reuters
Sky News understands one of the first things the Pope did was greet staff at his former residence, Sant’Uffizio Palace, just outside the Vatican.
All eyes will now be on his first mass, when he and other cardinals return to the Sistine Chapel around 10am.
Pope Leo’s first words as leader of 1.4 billion Catholics on Thursday evening were “may peace be with all of you”.
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3:21
Conclave: How the last 48 hours unfolded
His balcony speech also paid tribute to his predecessor – who only made him cardinal two years ago and brought him from Peru for a senior Vatican role.
“The pope that blessed Rome gave his blessing to the whole world on that Easter morning. So let us follow up that blessing,” said Leo.
He also called for a “church that builds bridges” and is “able to receive everybody that needs our charity, our presence, dialogue and love”.
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0:43
Trump comments on first US pope
There has long been a taboo against a US pope – given the influence the country already has – but Leo was promoted as a “compromise candidate” ahead of conclave.
His many years as a missionary in Peru are also believed to have given him more universal appeal, especially among the cardinals from Central and South America.
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President Donald Trump told reporters having an American in the role for the first time was a “great honour” – and Time magazine has already revealed its cover celebrating the moment.
However, the Pope appears to have taken issue with some of the Trump administration’s views and policies.
His X account posted a link in February to an article criticising comments by the vice president entitled: “JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn’t ask us to rank our love for others”.
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In April, when President Trump met El Salvador’s leader about using a notorious prison for suspected US gang members, he shared another post stating: “Do you not see the suffering? Is your conscience not disturbed? How can you stay quiet?”
‘Pope played Wordle before conclave’
With many now waiting on the Pope’s next public comments, his brothers have revealed their surprise when they saw him emerge in the white robes on TV.
“When the cardinal came out and started to read his name, as soon as he went “raw” I knew he was gonna say ‘Roberto’ – and he did – and I just freaked out.”
Mr Prevost added: “We’ve kind of known he was special, and we used to tease him about being pope when he was six years old and stuff.”
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The Pope’s other brother said he had been in contact with him before conclave and joked about watching the hit film of the same name.
“I said did you watch the movie Conclave so you know how to behave,” John Prevost told NBC News.
“And he had just finished watching the movie so knew how to behave; so it’s that kind of stuff because I wanted to take his mind off of it – because this is now an awesome responsibility.”
He also revealed the brothers had played online puzzles Wordle and Words with Friends to take the Pope’s mind off things in the run-up to the election.
He was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023 and appointed head of the dicastery for bishops, a powerful position responsible for selecting new bishops.
Significantly, he presided over one of Francis’s most revolutionary reforms when he added three women to the voting bloc which decides on the bishop nominations sent to the Pope.
Image: Bishop Robert Prevost leading a celebration in Peru last August. Pic: AP
As cardinal, he said little on key issues of the church, but some of his positions are known.
He is reportedly very close to Francis’s vision regarding the environment, outreach to the poor and migrants. He said in 2024 “the bishop is not supposed to be a little prince sitting in his kingdom”.
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He also supported Pope Francis’s stance on allowing divorced and remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion.
However, he only showed mild support for Francis allowing priests to bless same-sex couples.
Image: Cardinal Prevost being appointed by Francis in 2023. Pic: EPA/Shutterstock
Pope Leo has years of experience in leadership roles within the church.
He was twice elected to the top position of the Augustinian religious order and Francis clearly had an eye on his progress – moving him from the Augustinian leadership back to Peru in 2014, where he served as administrator and later archbishop of Chiclayo.
He acquired Peruvian citizenship in 2015 and remained in Chiclayo until 2023, when Francis brought him to Rome.
Image: Pope Leo’s years in Peru made him a more universal candidate for the papacy. Pic: AP
While there has long been a taboo against a US pope – given the geopolitical power the US already wields – Leo was being promoted as a “compromise candidate” ahead of the conclave.
The amount of time he has spent in Peru also allowed him to be seen as a more universal candidate.
The world learned a new pope had been chosen at around 6.08pm local time (5.08pm UK time) on Thursday as white smoke suddenly emerged from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel.
Delivering an address from the balcony, Pope Leo – speaking in Italian – told the crowds: “Peace be with you all.”
He then thanked his predecessor and repeated Francis’s call for a church that is engaged with the modern world and “always looking for peace, charity and being close to people, especially those who are suffering”.
Image: Newly-elected Pope Leo XIV appears on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican. Pic: Reuters
“Together we must try to find out how to be a church that builds bridges, establishes dialogue and is open to receiving everybody,” he said.
Speaking in Spanish, he added: “I would particularly like to say hello to my compatriots from Peru.
There is a long list of demands in the new pope’s in-tray, ranging from the position of women in the church to the ongoing fight against sexual abuse and restoring papal finances.
People both inside the Catholic Church and around the world will be watching how the new pontiff deals with them.
Here, Sky News Europe correspondent Siobhan Robbins takes an in-depth look at the challenges facing the new pontiff.
Sexual abuse
Many Catholic insiders credit Pope Francis with going further than any of his predecessors to address sexual abuse.
He gathered bishops together for a conference on the issue in 2019 and that led to a change that allows cooperating with civil courts if needed during abuse cases.
But it didn’t go as far as forcing the disclosure of all information gathered in relation to child abuse.
Any abuse allegations must now be referred to church leaders, but reformers stopped short of decreeing that such cases should also be automatically referred to the police.
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6:27
Clerical abuse victim says church still has ‘so much to do’
While many abuse victims agree they saw progress under Pope Francis, who spent a lot of time listening to their accounts, they say reforms didn’t go far enough.
The next pope will be under pressure to take strong action on the issue.
Image: Newly-elected Pope Leo XIV appears on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican. Pic: Reuters
Women
Pope Francis also did more to promote women in the Vatican than any other pontiff.
Two years ago, he allowed women to vote in a significant meeting of bishops.
While he was clear he wanted women to have more opportunities, he resisted the idea that they needed to be part of the church hierarchy and didn’t change the rules on women being ordained.
Image: A woman kneels at St. Peter’s Square, on the first day of the conclave to elect the new pope. Pic: Reuters
His successor will need to decide if they push this agenda forward or rein it back in.
It’s a pressing concern as women do a huge amount of the work in schools and hospitals, but many are frustrated about being treated as second-class citizens. 10,000 nuns a year have left in the decade from 2012 to 2022, according to Vatican figures.
Inclusion
“Who am I to judge?” Pope Francis famously said when asked about a gay monsignor in 2013.
His supporters say he sought to make the church more open, including allowing blessings for same sex couples but while critics argue he didn’t go far enough, some conservatives were outraged.
Image: A gay couple kiss at a Catholic protest against the legalisation of gay marriage in Mexico. File pic: Reuters
African bishops collectively rejected blessings for same sex couples, saying “it would cause confusion and would be in direct contradiction to the cultural ethos of African communities”.
How welcome LGBTQ+ people feel in the church will depend partly on decisions made by the pontiff.
Conversely, the Pope must also bring together disparate groups within the Catholic faith.
Many are demanding a leader who can unite the various factions and bring stability in an increasingly unstable world.
The global south
While the Catholic church is losing members in its traditional base of Europe, it’s growing rapidly in the global south.
The area has become the new centre of gravity for Catholicism with huge followings in countries like Brazil, Mexico and the Philippines.
Pope Francis tried to expand representation by appointing more cardinals from different areas of the world, and the new Pope will be expected to continue this.
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1:02
Behind the scenes at the conclave
Finance
The Vatican is facing a serious financial crisis.
The budget deficit has tripled since Pope Francis’s election and the pension fund has a shortfall of up to €2bn (£1.7bn).
These money worries, which were compounded by COVID-19 and long-standing bureaucratic challenges, represent a major concern for the next pope.