Seasonal viruses and COVID-19 could leave NHS ‘unable to cope’ this winter, scientists warn
As many as 60,000 people could die from flu this winter and a combination of seasonal viruses and COVID-19 could leave the NHS “unable to cope”, according to a report.
The stark warning was made by scientists who say the flu season could be particularly deadly but the enhanced flu jab programme and rapid tests for flu could help to mitigate the risks.
COVID-19 restrictions meant that many respiratory viruses were not able to spread last winter as they normally would and this has concerned some virologists who say population immunity to seasonal respiratory illnesses might be compromised.
As people socialise more these viruses will spread again.
The new report from the Academy of Medical Sciences says flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) hospital admissions and deaths could be twice that seen in a “normal” year and could coincide with an increase in COVID-19 infections.
Professor Sir Stephen Holgate, chair of the Expert Advisory Group which wrote the report, said: “There are four main challenges: firstly a surge in respiratory viruses could cause wide-spread ill health and put pressure on the NHS.
“Secondly, we’re dealing with a third wave of COVID-19 and multiple outbreaks and the NHS has got to catch up with the backlog that it has accumulated over the last 15 months or so, and that’s going to be a real challenge.
“Thirdly, the NHS is already under pressure, so is likely not to be able to cope with these winter challenges going forward.
“Finally the worse physical and mental health within the UK population due to the pandemic.”
He added: “Society as a whole will have learned from the last 15 months that it isn’t acceptable that (we had) all these respiratory viruses washing around in the winter and nearly closing our National Health Service.
“If there are things we should do top prevent transmission we should do that. Even if it means wearing masks and respecting each other’s space.”
He added: “We really do deserve to have a change in the way we operate as a society to stop the annual continual pressure on the health service created by all these viruses and that just means a change in behaviour.”
And due to the current wave of infections the NHS could face difficulties trying to catch up on the backlog of care – with more than five million people in England on the waiting list.
The report highlights other problems that the health service faces going into winter including staff shortages and reduced bed capacity.
On top of this, people putting off seeking help for illness could also lead to a rise in support needed for conditions such as asthma, heart attack and stroke this winter.
They also called for the expansion of COVID-19 testing to also include tests for flu and RSV – for instance if GPs were able to quickly confirm whether a patient has flu they would be able to prescribe their antiviral medication sooner which means that the person’s illness would be reduced, and lessen the burden on the NHS.
Up to 60,000 people could die from flu this winter, scientists have said
Professor Dame Anne Johnson, president of the Academy of Medical Sciences and Expert Advisory Group member, added: “We’re not saying we’re about to have the worst winter ever, we’re saying we have got a bunch of uncertain things that could hit us in winter that we need to think about mitigating now.”
She added: “I hope we will take forward some of these behavioural changes as a society. When you’re sick, stay out of the way because that’s actually when you’re most infectious, get your test – if you have got COVID you need to continue with that careful self isolation.”
Dame Anne said that the flu figures are “uncertain” and the 60,000 figure is an “an unlikely worst case scenarios”, adding” flu is horribly unpredictable”.
Professor Azra Ghani, Expert Advisory Group member, added: “We have never experienced this type of thing where society has really shut down and really reduced transmission to this extent. It’s very difficult to know what impact this will have.
“It’s really just a warning to say ‘we can do something about this , this isn’t an inevitable, we can put measures in place and reduce the impact’.”
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‘You’ll be asked to leave’ without a mask on London’s public transport
The report’s authors think the flu season could come earlier than usual because of the lack of immunity but say this could actually be beneficial as there is more pressure on the NHS further into the winter.
Sir Patrick Vallance commissioned the report to examine the challenges facing the NHS this winter.
In addition to a deadly winter flu surge the study warned the health service is already under pressure and will struggle to cope with these additional winter challenges as it faced a shortage of beds and trained staff.
But the reports authors stressed the predictions are based on a worst case scenario with no interventions.
A faster vaccine rollout, the autumn booster campaign and increased testing capacity for COVID and flu will help significantly in reducing the impact of these extra pressures on the NHS.
UK
Post Office scandal: At least 8 convictions may be linked to second IT system used by Post Office
At least eight convictions predating the Horizon Post Office scandal are being looked at by the body investigating potential miscarriages of justice, Sky News has learned.
The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) has confirmed it is examining multiple cases of former sub-postmasters affected by Capture software.
The computer accounting system was used in the early 1990s, prior to Horizon being introduced to Post Office branches from 1999 onwards.
Horizon was at the centre of the Post Office scandal and saw hundreds of sub-postmasters wrongly convicted of stealing from their branches.
The Kroll report, commissioned by the government earlier this year, found that Capture had bugs and glitches and there was a reasonable likelihood it had caused cash shortfalls too.
Lord Beamish, the former Labour MP Kevan Jones, has been supporting victims and is calling for the government to extend current legislation to automatically quash convictions.
The Post Office (Horizon System) Offences Act was passed in May but does not include Capture victims.
Lord Beamish told Sky News he has raised the issue with the Justice Secretary and called for a House of Lords debate.
“The government are going to have to take this seriously,” he said. “We can’t have a situation where we have a two-tier system where people get exonerated from Horizon and the Capture cases are either forgotten or have to go through a very lengthy legal process to get their names cleared.”
Chris claims his mother was wrongly jailed because of accounting problems with the Post Office software Capture
He added he had “little faith” in the CCRC’s “ability to deal with cases”, after multiple Horizon cases were referred to the body years ago.
“The problem with these cases is the lack of evidence… that has been destroyed or lost so actually proving some of these cases through that process will be very difficult.
“Therefore I think a blanket exoneration like we had with Horizon I think has got to be discussed and considered for these cases.”
The CCRC told Sky News it has five cases under review “in which the Capture IT system could be a factor”.
It also said it is “seeking further information” on eight cases referenced in the Kroll report.
Read more:
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The CCRC added that the time taken for a case review to be completed was dependent on the “complexity” of each case “and how readily available information about it is”. In a statement, it admitted: “The availability of information can be a particular hurdle in older cases.”
Chris’s mother died earlier this year following a battle with Alzheimer’s and never got to clear her name
Chris Roberts’ mother, Liz Roberts, was convicted in 1999 of stealing £46,000 from the Post Office and spent 13 months behind bars.
Liz, who was in the advanced stages of Alzheimer’s disease, passed away earlier this year.
Chris said she was jailed four days before he turned 17, and he used to have “nightmares” that she was “going to die in there”.
“There was no evidence of any financial gain because they went through everything. And obviously the money wasn’t in our accounts because it didn’t exist,” he added.
Despite being offered “three deals” by the Post Office to plead guilty, Liz refused and was sent to prison.
Liz Roberts during happier times before she was jailed for theft – her son insists she was innocent
Chris believes that the 2019 High Court win by Horizon victims was a missed opportunity for the Post Office to look back at Capture cases.
“It would have been worth something then because my mum would have died knowing that everybody else knew she was innocent,” he said.
“My dad would have died knowing that the love of his life wasn’t vilified as a criminal.”
Chris wants his mother exonerated and “those actively responsible” to “stand up in court… and justify themselves”.
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Sky’s Adele Robinson examines Britain’s biggest miscarriages of justice
A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson said: “We were horrified to learn about the issues with the Capture system and are working closely across government to thoroughly examine Kroll’s independent report and consider what action should be taken.
“We continue to listen to postmasters and others who have been sharing their views on the report’s findings since its publication last month.”
Official accounts have revealed for the first time how much the King’s 2023 coronation cost UK taxpayers.
According to the accounts, the government spent £72m on the coronation – the first in Britain since Queen Elizabeth II’s in 1953.
The figure includes £50.3m of costs attributed to the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS), which coordinated the coronation, and £21.7m in costs for the Home Office for the policing of the event.
By comparison, Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral and events during the period of national mourning cost the government an estimated £162m – £74m for the Home Office and £57m for the DCMS as well as costs to the devolved governments.
The figures come from the culture department’s recently released annual report and accounts.
The department said it had “successfully delivered on the central weekend of His Majesty King Charles III’s Coronation, enjoyed by many millions both in the UK and across the globe”.
People walk past a souvenir shop during the coronation. Pic: Reuters
It described the event as a “once-in-a-generation moment” which provided an occasion for the “entire country to come together in celebration”.
Both the King and Queen were crowned at Westminster Abbey in May last year, in a ceremony attended by dignitaries from around the world.
A star-studded concert at Windsor Castle, featuring Take That and stars such as Olly Murs, Katy Perry and Lionel Richie, took place the following night.
It had been described ahead of the event as being a “slimmed-down affair” – with the country still in the grips of the cost-of-living crisis – and accounts show an “underspend” related to the coronation of around £2.8m.
Olly Murs performing at the Coronation Concert. Pic: Reuters
Did coronation boost the economy?
Despite talk of a coronation boost, the UK’s economy actually contracted in the month of May 2023.
However, experts said that was mostly due to the cost of the additional public holiday for the event, which weighed on output.
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Each bank holiday costs the UK economy around £2.3bn, with the extra bank holiday for the late Queen’s funeral estimated to have cost around £2.4bn, according to government figures.
With the extra coronation bank holiday, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed negative growth of 0.1% during May 2023.
However, that was slightly better than economists had predicted ahead of the event.
Prior to the event, economic forecasters, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), had predicted a boost of £337m for the UK’s economy due to the coronation – including £104m in extra pub spending and an estimated £223m spend from tourism to the UK during the period.
Hotel revenue was also said to be up by 54% compared to the same point in the previous year, while bookings for UK-bound flights for the coronation weekend jumped by 149% within 24 hours of the day being announced, according to TravelPort.
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