As many as 60,000 people could die from flu this winter and a combination of seasonal viruses and COVID-19 could leave the NHS “unable to cope”, according to a report.
The stark warning was made by scientists who say the flu season could be particularly deadly but the enhanced flu jab programme and rapid tests for flu could help to mitigate the risks.
COVID-19 restrictions meant that many respiratory viruses were not able to spread last winter as they normally would and this has concerned some virologists who say population immunity to seasonal respiratory illnesses might be compromised.
As people socialise more these viruses will spread again.
The new report from the Academy of Medical Sciences says flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) hospital admissions and deaths could be twice that seen in a “normal” year and could coincide with an increase in COVID-19 infections.
Advertisement
Professor Sir Stephen Holgate, chair of the Expert Advisory Group which wrote the report, said: “There are four main challenges: firstly a surge in respiratory viruses could cause wide-spread ill health and put pressure on the NHS.
“Secondly, we’re dealing with a third wave of COVID-19 and multiple outbreaks and the NHS has got to catch up with the backlog that it has accumulated over the last 15 months or so, and that’s going to be a real challenge.
More on Covid-19
“Thirdly, the NHS is already under pressure, so is likely not to be able to cope with these winter challenges going forward.
“Finally the worse physical and mental health within the UK population due to the pandemic.”
He added: “Society as a whole will have learned from the last 15 months that it isn’t acceptable that (we had) all these respiratory viruses washing around in the winter and nearly closing our National Health Service.
“If there are things we should do top prevent transmission we should do that. Even if it means wearing masks and respecting each other’s space.”
He added: “We really do deserve to have a change in the way we operate as a society to stop the annual continual pressure on the health service created by all these viruses and that just means a change in behaviour.”
And due to the current wave of infections the NHS could face difficulties trying to catch up on the backlog of care – with more than five million people in England on the waiting list.
The report highlights other problems that the health service faces going into winter including staff shortages and reduced bed capacity.
On top of this, people putting off seeking help for illness could also lead to a rise in support needed for conditions such as asthma, heart attack and stroke this winter.
They also called for the expansion of COVID-19 testing to also include tests for flu and RSV – for instance if GPs were able to quickly confirm whether a patient has flu they would be able to prescribe their antiviral medication sooner which means that the person’s illness would be reduced, and lessen the burden on the NHS.
Image: Up to 60,000 people could die from flu this winter, scientists have said
Professor Dame Anne Johnson, president of the Academy of Medical Sciences and Expert Advisory Group member, added: “We’re not saying we’re about to have the worst winter ever, we’re saying we have got a bunch of uncertain things that could hit us in winter that we need to think about mitigating now.”
She added: “I hope we will take forward some of these behavioural changes as a society. When you’re sick, stay out of the way because that’s actually when you’re most infectious, get your test – if you have got COVID you need to continue with that careful self isolation.”
Dame Anne said that the flu figures are “uncertain” and the 60,000 figure is an “an unlikely worst case scenarios”, adding” flu is horribly unpredictable”.
Professor Azra Ghani, Expert Advisory Group member, added: “We have never experienced this type of thing where society has really shut down and really reduced transmission to this extent. It’s very difficult to know what impact this will have.
“It’s really just a warning to say ‘we can do something about this , this isn’t an inevitable, we can put measures in place and reduce the impact’.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘You’ll be asked to leave’ without a mask on London’s public transport
The report’s authors think the flu season could come earlier than usual because of the lack of immunity but say this could actually be beneficial as there is more pressure on the NHS further into the winter.
Sir Patrick Vallance commissioned the report to examine the challenges facing the NHS this winter.
In addition to a deadly winter flu surge the study warned the health service is already under pressure and will struggle to cope with these additional winter challenges as it faced a shortage of beds and trained staff.
But the reports authors stressed the predictions are based on a worst case scenario with no interventions.
A faster vaccine rollout, the autumn booster campaign and increased testing capacity for COVID and flu will help significantly in reducing the impact of these extra pressures on the NHS.
A major police search is taking place for a runner who has been missing for three days – as officers say they are becoming “increasingly concerned”.
Jenny Hall, 23, was last seen leaving her home in Barracks Farm, Tow Law, County Durham, in her car just after 3pm on Tuesday.
In an update on Friday, Durham Constabulary said her last known location was on the B6278 between Stanhope and Eggleston – where her red Ford Focus was parked.
Image: Pic: Durham Constabulary
Sniffer dogs are being used in the area, with the search concentrated on running trails between Eggleston and Hamsterley used regularly by Ms Hall.
Several expert mountain rescue search teams and air support have joined the operation.
More than 100 miles of track have been searched in the Teesdale area by officers, the rural community and local landowners.
Digital intelligence officers have also carried out extensive enquiries into Ms Hall’s mobile phone, smart watch and running apps, but the force said “none have yielded any results unfortunately”.
More on County Durham
Related Topics:
Police focused on areas ‘Jenny likes to run through’
Chief Inspector Dean Haythornthwaite said in a statement: “We have become increasingly concerned for Jenny since she was reported missing on Tuesday and have been exploring all lines of enquiry, including dozens from members of the public.
“We are focusing our search on areas we know Jenny likes to run through and we are determined to do everything we can to find her.
“I would like to thank everyone who is working around-the-clock in our search and efforts to reunite Jenny with her family.”
Ms Hall is described as white and 6ft tall with dark brown hair.
She was last seen wearing a blue hoodie with a John Deere logo and dark jogging bottoms.
Her family told police she may have been carrying a green jacket and had her hair up in a ponytail.
Anyone who believes they may have seen Ms Hall or has any relevant information about her whereabouts is asked to contact police.
A man has been found guilty of attempted murder for attacking author Sir Salman Rushdie.
The 77-year-old British-American writer was stabbed multiple timesas he was preparing to give a speech in New York in 2022.
He was blinded in his right eye in the incident, suffered a severely damaged hand, and spent months recovering.
Following a trial in Chautauqua County Court, a jury convicted 27-year-old Hadi Matar of attempting to murder Sir Salman, after less than two hours of deliberations.
He was also found guilty of assault for wounding Henry Reese, who was on stage with Sir Salman at the time.
Matar gave no obvious reaction to the verdict, and quietly muttered “free Palestine” as he was led out of the courtroom in handcuffs.
Image: Hadi Matar was found guilty by a jury after less than two hours of deliberations. Pic: AP
The court heard Matar ran on to the stage at the Chautauqua Institution where the author was about to speak on 12 August 2022, and stabbed him in front of an audience.
The Indian-born writer, who spent most of the 1990s in hiding in the UK after receiving death threats over his 1988 novel The Satanic Verses, was stabbed about 15 times.
Sir Salman was attacked in the head, neck, torso, and left hand. He also suffered damage to his liver and intestines.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
“I was aware of someone wearing black clothes, or dark clothes and a black face mask. I was very struck by his eyes, which were dark and seemed very ferocious to me.
“I thought he was hitting me with his fist but I saw a large quantity of blood pouring onto my clothes.
“He was hitting me repeatedly. Hitting and slashing.”
The writer then said he felt “a sense of great pain and shock,” and added: “It occurred to me that I was dying. That was my predominant thought.”
The court also heard that Mr Reese, the co-founder of Pittsburgh’s City of Asylum, had suffered a gash to his forehead in the attack.
‘Attack was unprovoked’
During closing arguments earlier on Friday, District Attorney Jason Schmidt showed the jury a video of the attack and said: “I want you to look at the unprovoked nature of this attack.
“I want you to look at the targeted nature of the attack. There were a lot of people around that day but there was only one person who was targeted.”
Matar’s defence team argued prosecutors did not prove he intended to kill the writer, with Andrew Brautigan telling the jury: “You will agree something bad happened to Mr Rushdie, but you don’t know what Mr Matar’s conscious objective was.”
Mr Schmidt said that while it was not possible to read Matar’s mind, “it’s foreseeable that if you’re going to stab someone 10 or 15 times about the face and neck, it’s going to result in a fatality”.
The judge set a sentencing date of 23 April, when Matar could be jailed for up to 25 years.
Matar faces a separate, federal indictment from prosecutors in the US attorney’s office in western New York alleging that he attempted to murder Sir Salman as an act of terrorism.
He is also accused of providing material support to the armed group Hezbollah in Lebanon, which the US has designated as a terrorist organisation.
Three brothers have been jailed after underage girls in Leeds and Barrow-in-Furness were sexually abused and raped over a number of years.
The trio were convicted in October last year, with the abuse taking place between 1996 and 2010.
Shaha Amran Miah, 49, known as Jai; Shaha Alman Miah, 47, known as Ali; and Shah Joman Miah, 38, known as Sarj all pleaded not guilty.
Sarj has since admitted his crimes. However, the judge said it could be a cynical attempt for leniency and did not give him any credit.
Image: Shaha Amran Miah, Shaha Joman Miah and Shaha Alman Miah. Pic: Cumbria Police
They were sentenced on Friday to the following:
Shaha Amran Miah – life with a minimum term of 20 years and 338 days.
Shaha Alman Miah – 10 years in prison and four years on licence.
Shah Joman Miah – life with a minimum term of 21 years and 232 days.
Preston Crown Court heard Sarj and Jai regularly sexually abused two children at a Leeds mosque over many years, beginning when the victims were seven.
The three also preyed on vulnerable and underage girls at a flat above their family’s takeaway in Barrow, Cumbria, between 2008 and 2010.
They gave them cigarettes, alcohol, food and even hair extensions in what barrister Tim Evans KC called a “classic grooming technique”.
He said the brothers worked as a team and “created an environment in Barrow in which each of them could abuse young girls”.
Judge Unsworth KC said they had shattered the lives of their victims and hid in plain sight in the Cumbria town.
Multiple schoolgirls in their uniforms were regularly seen at the takeaway, the judge said, with Jai acting ruthlessly to stop them going to the police.
The court heard Sarj would take one of the girls to a hotel for sex about twice a month and became increasingly controlling – to the point she remains on medication and is terrified of seeing him in the street.
A witness told Sky News the men abused their victims in a dingy room above the takeaway that “looked like a crackhouse” and had mattresses on the floor and sheets covering the windows.
“They knew exactly how young they were,” she said. “They didn’t only have one girlfriend each… they had multiple.”
Shaha Amran Miah was found guilty of 16 sexual offences against three girls, including rape, as well as two charges of intimidation and one of kidnap.
Shaha Alman Miah was found guilty of three counts of sexual activity with a child.
Shah Joman Miah was convicted of sexually abusing three children. There were nine counts of rape of a child among his 40 offences.