Moon ‘wobble’ to bring a surge of severe flooding in 2030s, NASA warns
A moon “wobble” will contribute to an increase in severe flooding in the mid-2030s, NASA has warned.
The moon’s orbit, which affects the Earth’s tides, has a natural “wobble” every 18.6 years that causes extremely high and low tides.
In a new study, published by Nature Climate Change, NASA’s Sea Level Change Science Team calculated that the next wobble in the mid-2030s will amplify rising sea levels caused by climate change.
People walk on a local street as water from Neuse River starts flooding houses in New Bern, North Carolina
Almost all of US mainland coastlines, as well as Hawaii and Guam, are likely to see high-tide flood numbers surge as they come under pressure from the higher seas.
But northern coastlines, including Alaska’s, will be spared for another decade or longer because these land areas are rising due to long-term geological processes, researchers found.
The study is the first to take into account all known oceanic and astronomical causes for floods, NASA said.
High-tide floods, also known as nuisance floods or sunny day floods, occur not because of storm surges from extreme weather or excessive precipitation, but instead when the tide rises into populated areas.
The floods can overwhelm storm drains, close roads and compromise infrastructure over time, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NASA administrator Bill Nelson said: “Low-lying areas near sea level are increasingly at risk and suffering due to the increased flooding, and it will only get worse.
“The combination of the moon’s gravitational pull, rising sea levels, and climate change will continue to exacerbate coastal flooding on our coastlines and across the world.”
“It’s the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact,” added Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of Hawaii and the lead author of the new study.
The lunar wobble will amplify rising sea levels
High tide floods are less dramatic and involve less water than hurricane storm surges, so they are often seen as a less pressing problem.
“But if it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a business can’t keep operating with its parking lot underwater,” Mr Thompson said.
“People lose their jobs because they can’t get to work. Seeping cesspools become a public health issue.”
The floods will also occur in clusters, which could last a month or longer at a time depending on the position of the moon, sun, and Earth, NASA said.
As the moon and Earth line up with each other and the sun in specific ways, some city dwellers could see flooding every day or two.
Ben Hamlington, who leads NASA’s Sea Level Change Team, said the study is vital for coastal urban planners, who may tend to focus on preparing for extreme weather events over chronic flooding.
“From a planning perspective, it’s important to know when we’ll see an increase,” Mr Hamlington said.
Homes are flooded after Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the southern New Jersey coastline
“Understanding that all your events are clustered in a particular month, or you might have more severe flooding in the second half of a year than the first – that’s useful information.”
The moon is currently in the tide-amplifying part of its 18.6-year wobble, but most US coastlines are yet to see enough sea-level rise to notice the flooding effects.
By the mid-2030s, the next time the wobble enters its tide-amplifying phase, global sea levels will have had another decade to rise due to climate change.
The study projected results out to 2080 by mapping “NOAA’s widely used sea level rise scenarios and flooding thresholds, the number of times those thresholds have been exceeded annually, astronomical cycles, and statistical representations of other processes, such as El Niño events, that are known to affect tides.”
Failure – it’s the F word Donald Trump fears most.
Hence the early morning rant from a president, F for frustrated.
The day before had seen head-spinning developments in which a ceasefire between Israel and Iran turned on a Truth Social post.
If it felt fragile, that’s how it appeared overnight. There were exchanges between both sides beyond the deadline, and the president woke frustrated.
An unlikely diplomatic result looked exactly that.
Donald Trump lashed out at Iran and Israel before boarding a flight to Europe on Tuesday. Pic: Reuters
Trump’s four-lettered fury was aimed primarily at Israel, which on Tuesday morning gave the appearance of an ally that had reeled him into the fight and wasn’t letting go.
It also leant into doubts around Trump’s influence over Israeli actions.
If this process is heading towards nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, Trump doesn’t need questions surrounding his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Tehran needs to believe Trump can tighten the leash.
It will have been comforted by his remarks on board Air Force One, from where he called Netanyahu.
Speaking to the travelling media, Trump said he didn’t want to see regime change in Iran, having floated support for the idea last week.
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Israel’s prime minister’s office issued a statement that spoke of having “achieved all the war’s objectives”.
The wording speaks to a move beyond aggression.
Time will tell, and this ceasefire feels fragile still, but it’ll do for Trump for now, the self-styled peacemaker making peace one social media post at a time.
He is strengthened by the success of his diplomacy, a fact laid bare – where else? – on Truth Social.
Read more:
How much damage did the US inflict on Iran?
Can Tehran trust Trump as a broker of peace?
Trump boarding Air Force One to travel to Europe on Tuesday. Pic: AP
As he flew towards the NATO summit, Trump posted a message from the NATO secretary general, Mark Rutte.
It’s unclear if Rutte knew it would be published, but it’s abundantly clear he’s a man with lips puckered as the US president swaggers towards the gathering.
Referring to NATO countries’ commitment to increase their defence spending to 5% of GDP, he wrote: “Donald, you have driven us to a really, really important moment for America and Europe and the world.
“You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done.”
The effusive praise speaks to power enhanced for the US president as he prepares to attend the NATO gathering.
His stature is reinforced by his most recent result… as long as it lasts.
Iranian state television says a ceasefire in its war with Israel has now begun, following a night of missile strikes.
Israel’s ambulance service says at least four people were killed in overnight strikes, with footage from southern Israel showing extensive damage to what appeared to be a residential building.
Sirens sounded in several areas – and members of the public who received an alert were ordered to take shelter – with explosions heard over Tel Aviv.
Israel-Iran latest: Ceasefire deal has been reached
Early on Tuesday morning, US President Donald Trump declared: “The ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it!”
The message on Truth Social followed a series of posts on Monday, in which the president declared that a “complete and total ceasefire” had been agreed upon between the two countries and would begin at approximately 5am UK time.
Footage appeared to show a residential building in southern Israel that was extensively damaged. Pic: AP
In a post on X, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, confirmed that Tehran “has no intention” to continue its response to Israel – provided it “stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people”.
Israeli media reports suggested Benjamin Netanyahu was also on board – provided Iran stops firing missiles towards the country – but there has been no official confirmation.
Donald Trump in the Situation Room at the White House over the weekend. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump had written: “Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World.
“On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both countries, Israel and Iran, on having the stamina, courage, and intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.’
“This is a war that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will!”
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Iran’s nuclear capabilities
In an interview with Sky News’ partner network NBC, the president said it was a “great day” for the US and the Middle East – and a “wonderful day” for the world.
“I’m very happy to have been able to get the job done. A lot of people were dying, and it was only going to get worse. It would have brought the whole Middle East down,” he said.
Mr Trump said he thinks the ceasefire is “unlimited” and is “going to go forever” – adding: “I don’t believe they will ever be shooting at each other again.”
Just hours earlier, people in the Qatari capital Doha had stopped and gazed up at the sky as Iranian missiles flew to the American al Udeid base and interceptors fired.
Officials said there were no casualties, and the US later confirmed it had been warned about the attack by Iran.
Mr Trump was in the Situation Room in the White House as the strikes took place.
He later claimed on his social network that the missiles were a “very weak response”, which the US “expected” and “very effectively countered”.
The Iranian attack came after the US dropped “bunker buster bombs” on three key nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
In a new interview on Fox News, US Vice President JD Vance claimed Iran is no longer able to build nuclear weapons after the American attacks.
“Iran was very close to having a nuclear weapon,” he said. “Now Iran is incapable of building a nuclear weapon with the equipment they have because we destroyed it.”
US
Can Tehran regard Trump as a trusted broker of peace when he floated the idea of regime change in Iran?
These days, peace is a post on social media. On Donald Trump’s Truth Social site, it came in two parts.
Part one read: “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE.”
The Magna Carta it wasn’t, but it was a peace treaty for our times – a US president announcing there would be no retaliation against Iran’s missile attack.
An anxious world watching for US bombers returning to Iranian skies could cool its jets – and the primetime president could feel vindicated, having enjoyed strategic success.
Donald Trump at a meeting in the Situation Room at the White House. Pic: Reuters
Trump has tweaked the politics and military landscape around Iran to suit US interests, without a single American life lost.
He had framed US intervention in Iran as an effort to prevent a “forever” foreign war, not to provoke it, and he is sitting pretty, following ugly predictions he’d be sucked into conflict.
Live updates: Three killed as Iranian missiles strike Israel
Footage appeared to show a residential building in southern Israel that was extensively damaged. Pic: AP
Then, on Truth Social, there was peace “part two”.
A couple of hours after announcing non-retaliation, Trump wrote the sequel: “Ceasefire.”
He posted: “CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE!” – saying a “complete and total” ceasefire had been fully agreed between Israel and Iran.
Quite the day of problem-solving for the self-styled “peacemaker-in-chief”. Quite the day of problems unsolved too – time will tell.
As deadlines loomed, neither Israel nor Iran appeared fully committed to the Trump script, and fresh missiles were fired overnight.
Daytime will test the durability of a ceasefire. There are motivations on both sides to continue a conflict in which both see the other as an existential threat.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Can Tehran regard Donald Trump as a trusted broker of peace when he floated the idea of regime change in Iran, as pursued by Israel?
Can Israel be convinced to pull back on its military advantage when its instinct will be to reinforce superiority and undermine an Iranian rebuild?
Trump’s influence will be tested, as ever, when he flies to a NATO summit in The Netherlands today. For him, it can be a difficult crowd and one for whom he remains a mystery.
A positive result in the Middle East will help to confound their curiosity, for the better.
It’s the most important day for Donald Trump since the last one.
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