Moon ‘wobble’ to bring a surge of severe flooding in 2030s, NASA warns
A moon “wobble” will contribute to an increase in severe flooding in the mid-2030s, NASA has warned.
The moon’s orbit, which affects the Earth’s tides, has a natural “wobble” every 18.6 years that causes extremely high and low tides.
In a new study, published by Nature Climate Change, NASA’s Sea Level Change Science Team calculated that the next wobble in the mid-2030s will amplify rising sea levels caused by climate change.
People walk on a local street as water from Neuse River starts flooding houses in New Bern, North Carolina
Almost all of US mainland coastlines, as well as Hawaii and Guam, are likely to see high-tide flood numbers surge as they come under pressure from the higher seas.
But northern coastlines, including Alaska’s, will be spared for another decade or longer because these land areas are rising due to long-term geological processes, researchers found.
The study is the first to take into account all known oceanic and astronomical causes for floods, NASA said.
High-tide floods, also known as nuisance floods or sunny day floods, occur not because of storm surges from extreme weather or excessive precipitation, but instead when the tide rises into populated areas.
The floods can overwhelm storm drains, close roads and compromise infrastructure over time, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NASA administrator Bill Nelson said: “Low-lying areas near sea level are increasingly at risk and suffering due to the increased flooding, and it will only get worse.
“The combination of the moon’s gravitational pull, rising sea levels, and climate change will continue to exacerbate coastal flooding on our coastlines and across the world.”
“It’s the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact,” added Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of Hawaii and the lead author of the new study.
The lunar wobble will amplify rising sea levels
High tide floods are less dramatic and involve less water than hurricane storm surges, so they are often seen as a less pressing problem.
“But if it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a business can’t keep operating with its parking lot underwater,” Mr Thompson said.
“People lose their jobs because they can’t get to work. Seeping cesspools become a public health issue.”
The floods will also occur in clusters, which could last a month or longer at a time depending on the position of the moon, sun, and Earth, NASA said.
As the moon and Earth line up with each other and the sun in specific ways, some city dwellers could see flooding every day or two.
Ben Hamlington, who leads NASA’s Sea Level Change Team, said the study is vital for coastal urban planners, who may tend to focus on preparing for extreme weather events over chronic flooding.
“From a planning perspective, it’s important to know when we’ll see an increase,” Mr Hamlington said.
Homes are flooded after Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the southern New Jersey coastline
“Understanding that all your events are clustered in a particular month, or you might have more severe flooding in the second half of a year than the first – that’s useful information.”
The moon is currently in the tide-amplifying part of its 18.6-year wobble, but most US coastlines are yet to see enough sea-level rise to notice the flooding effects.
By the mid-2030s, the next time the wobble enters its tide-amplifying phase, global sea levels will have had another decade to rise due to climate change.
The study projected results out to 2080 by mapping “NOAA’s widely used sea level rise scenarios and flooding thresholds, the number of times those thresholds have been exceeded annually, astronomical cycles, and statistical representations of other processes, such as El Niño events, that are known to affect tides.”
Dozens of supporters were outside court as the man accused of fatally shooting the chief executive of UnitedHealthcare made his first appearance.
Luigi Mangione has pleaded not guilty to multiple counts of murder following the 4 December killing of Brian Thompson, 50, outside a midtown Manhattan hotel.
The 26-year-old is accused of ambushing and shooting the executive as he walked to an investor conference.
Luigi Mangione supporters stand outside the Supreme Court. Pic: AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah
Dozens of people who showed up in court to support the suspect including former army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning who was jailed for stealing classified diplomatic cables.
Dozens more queued in the hallway.
Mangione is also facing federal charges that could carry the possibility of the death penalty.
The judge set a deadline of 9 April to submit pre-trial motions.
Luigi Mangione is accused of fatally shooting Brian Thompson. Pic: Steven Hirsch/New York Post via AP
In addition to the New York cases, Mr Mangione also faces charges of forgery, carrying firearms without a licence, and other counts in Pennsylvania, where authorities arrested him at a McDonald’s.
Police say he was in possession of a gun, bullets, multiple fake IDs and a handwritten document that expressed “ill will” towards corporate America.
He is being held in a Brooklyn jail alongside several other high-profile defendants, including music mogul and rapper Sean “Diddy” Combs, and disgraced crypto entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried.
The killing prompted some to voice their resentment at US health insurers, with Mangione attracting a cult following.
A poll taken in the wake of the shooting showed most Americans believe health insurance profits and coverage denials were partly to blame for the incident.
Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have not “done anything” to end the Ukraine war, US President Donald Trump has said.
He called the French president a “friend of mine” and the UK leader a “nice guy” but said Russia had only agreed to negotiate “because of me”.
Mr Trump made the comments days before both leaders visit the White House for a meeting in which they must try to press Ukraine‘s case while keeping the US leader onside.
Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron in Paris: Pic: Number 10/Flickr
The president also continued his criticism of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, saying he had “no cards” to play.
“I’ve been watching for years, and I’ve been watching him negotiate with no cards. He has no cards. And you get sick of it. You just get sick of it. And I’ve had it,” he told a Fox radio show.
The comments come after he recently called the Ukrainian leader a “dictator without elections” – apparently in response to Mr Zelenskyy saying his US counterpart was living in a “disinformation space” after Mr Trump claimed Ukraine had started the war.
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Ukraine was also excluded from talks between the top US and Russian diplomats in Riyadh earlier this week.
They were intended to set the stage for future negotiations on ending the war, which started when Russia launched a full-scale invasion three years ago.
Speaking on Friday evening, Mr Trump denied speculation he could visit Moscow for talks on 9 May – the day Russia celebrates its victory over the Nazis.
President Trump speaks in the Oval Office on Friday. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump also told reporters the Russian and Ukrainian leaders needed to “work together” to end the war.
However, the US has already dealt a huge blow to Kyiv’s position in any future talks.
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said last week that a return to pre-war borders was “unrealistic” and ruled out NATO membership as way to guarantee Kyiv’s security.
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President Zelenskyy has insisted he will not accept any deal that his country is not involved in.
Ukraine’s leader held talks with US envoy Keith Kellogg in Kyiv on Thursday, describing it later as a “good discussion”.
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Mr Kellogg struck a markedly different tone to President Trump when he called Mr Zelenskyy the “courageous leader of a nation at war”.
However, there are concerns over how much influence Mr Kellogg has, with a Ukrainian source saying there was a sense he had been sidelined.
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