The UK is “not out of the woods yet” when it comes to coronavirus and people should approach the end of most restrictions on Monday with caution, England’s chief medical officer has warned.
Professor Chris Whitty said the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 is doubling around every three weeks and could hit “quite scary numbers” if that trend is sustained.
“I don’t think we should underestimate the fact that we could get into trouble again surprisingly fast,” he told a webinar hosted by the Science Museum.
He added: “We are not by any means out of the woods yet on this, we are in much better shape due to the vaccine programme, and drugs and a variety of other things.
“But this has got a long way to run in the UK, and it’s got even further to run globally.”
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Professor Whitty said that the key thing after 19 July was “to take things incredibly slowly”, adding that he expects most people will still take precautions.
“If you look over what people have done, and in fact if you look at what people intend to do now, people have been incredibly good at saying, ‘I may be a relatively low-risk, but people around me are at high-risk, and I’m going to modify my behaviours’,” he said.
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Looking ahead, Professor Whitty said that in the medium-term COVID-19 could mutate into a “vaccine escape variant” that could take the UK “some of the way backwards” to the worst days of the pandemic.
“The further out in time we go, the more tools we have at our disposal from science, the less likely that is but you can never take that possibility completely off the table,” he said.
“But you know, science has done a phenomenal job so far and it will continue to do so.”
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The prime minister urged people not to “throw caution to the winds” when most legal restrictions in England end on Monday, as he acknowledged there would be more hospital admissions and deaths in the “difficult days and weeks ahead”.
Latest figures show there had been a further 48,553 cases of COVID-19 as of 9am on Thursday.
A further 63 people have died within 28 days of testing positive for the virus.
A total of 49 deaths were recorded on Wednesday, making this increase the highest day-on-day rise since 26 March.
Mr Johnson has said recently that daily cases could reach 50,000 by Monday, while Health Secretary Sajid Javid has spoken of case numbers topping 100,000 this summer.
But speaking on Thursday, he said the success of the UK’s vaccination programme, which has seen more than two-thirds of adults receive two doses, meant the government could go ahead with step four of its roadmap out of restrictions.
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‘Don’t have a great jubilee’ on 19 July – PM
“If we are careful and if we continue to respect this disease and its continuing menace then it is highly probable – almost all the scientists are agreed on this – the worst of the pandemic is behind us,” the PM said.
“There are difficult days and weeks ahead as we deal with the current wave of the Delta variant and there will be sadly more hospitalisation and more deaths but with every day that goes by we build higher the wall of vaccine-acquired immunity.”
Monday’s lifting of most coronavirus rules will see ministers seek to shift the emphasis from government diktat to people weighing up risks and taking their own decisions.
A range of guidance has been published ahead of 19 July, but ministers have been accused of sending “mixed messages” to people and businesses about what they should do beyond that date, in particular concerning face masks.
Despite the legal requirement to wear face masks on public transport and in shops being lifted, guidance for businesses issued on Wednesday states the government still “expects and recommends that people continue to wear a face covering in crowded, enclosed spaces”.
Critics have said the guidelines are a “recipe for chaos”, but the PM said businesses were “perfectly capable” of understanding new guidance on face coverings and guidelines.
“We are moving away from legal compulsion but we are saying that of course the pandemic is not over and sadly people have to remain cautious,” he said.
The UK will buy at least 12 F-35 stealth jets that can carry nuclear warheads in the most significant strengthening of its nuclear capability in a generation, the government has said.
Today, Sir Keir Starmer will tell a summit of NATO allies in The Hague that the new squadron will join an alliance mission that can be armed with US nuclear weapons.
The dramatic move will doubtless draw condemnation and concern from Russia and China.
But it comes at a time of growing global insecurity – and as the prime minister and his European and Canadian counterparts scramble to convince Donald Trump they are serious about bolstering their ability to defend Europe, instead of overly relying on the United States.
The US president, a long-standing NATO sceptic, raised questions about whether he would uphold the alliance’s founding Article 5 principle – that an attack on one is an attack on all – before he even arrived in the Dutch city last night.
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‘There’s numerous definitions of Article 5’
An urgent need to keep Mr Trump on side has prompted NATO allies to agree to increase spending on defence and national resilience to a new target of 5% of GDP by 2035.
As part of this push to rearm, Sir Keir will give the Royal Air Force the ability to carry airborne nuclear warheads for the first time since the 1990s.
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“In an era of radical uncertainty we can no longer take peace for granted,” he said.
“These F-35 dual capable aircraft will herald a new era for our world-leading Royal Air Force and deter hostile threats that threaten the UK and our allies.
“The UK’s commitment to NATO is unquestionable, as is the alliance’s contribution to keeping the UK safe and secure, but we must all step up to protect the Euro-Atlantic area for generations to come.”
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What is NATO’s 5% defence spending goal?
It was not immediately clear when the F-35 jets would be bought or how much they will cost, but the new squadron will be part of a NATO-led nuclear deterrence mission.
That is in contrast to the UK’s national nuclear deterrence, based on a fleet of four nuclear-armed submarines, though they too are used to defend the whole of the alliance.
Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, applauded the plan – saying: “The UK has declared its nuclear deterrent to NATO for many decades, and I strongly welcome today’s announcement that the UK will now also join NATO’s nuclear mission and procure the F-35A.
“This is yet another robust British contribution to NATO.”
Image: Sir Keir watches a demonstration by troops as he visits the Netherlands marines training base. Pic: AP
Aircraft operated by a small number of NATO countries, including Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands, are cleared to carry US-provided nuclear weapons in a war.
The RAF and the Royal Navy already operate F-35B jets that can fly off Britain’s two aircraft carriers, but they are not equipped to drop nuclear warheads.
The new planes will be the F-35A variant, operated by the air force, that take off from land but can fly further and be armed with nuclear or conventional weapons.
The government said they would all be based together at RAF Marham in Norfolk.
The government has long planned to purchase a total of 138 F-35 aircraft, but has so far only acquired around three dozen – seven years since the first jets entered service.
The decision to purchase 12 of the A-variant does not mean extra aircraft.
It just means a diversification in the fleet – something the RAF has long been pushing for – though it’s a decision some in the Royal Navy have long pushed back against, believing it would reduce even further the number of the B-version that operate from their carriers.
Doctors are using AI software that does not meet minimum standards to record and transcribe patient meetings, according to a Sky News investigation.
NHS bosses have demanded GPs and hospitals stop using artificial intelligence software that could breach data protection rules and put patients at risk.
A warning sent out by NHS England this month came just weeks after the same body wrote to doctors about the benefits of using AI for notetaking – to allow them more time to concentrate on patients – using software known as Ambient Voice Technology, or “AVT”.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting will next week put AI at the heart of the reform plan to save the NHS in the 10-year plan for the health service in England.
But there is growing controversy around software that records, transcribes and summarises patient conversations using AI.
In April, NHS England wrote to doctors to sell the benefits of AVT and set out minimum national standards.
However, in a letter seen by Sky News, NHS bosses wrote to doctors to warn that unapproved software that breached minimum standards could harm patients.
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Image: The version seen in the GP demonstration to Sky News complies with all NHS England standards and guidance
The 9 June letter, from the national chief clinical information officer of NHS England, said: “We are now aware of a number of AVT solutions which, despite being non-compliant … are still being widely used in clinical practice.
“Several AVT suppliers are approaching NHS organisations … many of these vendors have not complied with basic NHS governance standards.
“Proceeding with non-compliant solutions risks clinical safety, data protection breaches, financial exposure, and fragmentation of broader NHS digital strategy.”
Sky News has previously revealed the danger of AI “hallucinations”, where the technology makes up answers then lies about them, which could prove dangerous in a healthcare setting.
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NHS England sets minimum standards but does not tell NHS trusts and healthcare providers which software providers to use.
Sky News can now reveal there is growing pressure on NHS England and similar bodies to be more proactive.
Dr David Wrigley, deputy chair of the British Medical Association’s GP committee, said: “Undoubtedly, as a GP myself and my 35,000 colleagues, we’ve got responsibilities here – but in such a rapidly developing market when we haven’t got the technical knowledge to look into this.
“We need that help and support from those who can check that the products are safe, check they’re secure, that they’re suitable for use in the consulting room, and NHS England should do that and help and support us.”
Dr Wrigley continued: “We’re absolutely in favour of tech and in favour of taking that forward to help NHS patients, help my colleagues in their surgeries.
“But it’s got to be done in a safe and secure way because otherwise we could have a free for all – and then data could be lost, it could be leaking out, and that just isn’t acceptable.
“So we are not dinosaurs, we’re very pro-AI, but it has to be a safe, secure way.”
Image: The head of the NHS Confederation says the letter is ‘a really significant moment’
The spectre of dozens of little-known but ambitious AI companies lobbying hospitals and surgeries to get their listening products installed worries some healthcare professionals.
There are huge profits to be made in this technological arms race, but the question being asked is whether hundreds of different NHS organisations can really be expected to sift out the sharks.
Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, said the letter was “a really significant moment”.
He said it was right for the NHS to experiment, but that it needed to be clearer what technology does and does not work safely.
“My own view is that the government should help in terms of the procurement decisions that trusts make and should advise on which AI systems – as we do with other forms of technology that we use in medicine – which ones are safe,” Mr Taylor said.
“We’ll need [government] to do a bit more to guide the NHS in the best way to use this.”
When pressed whether in the short term that actually makes it sound like it could be quite dangerous, Mr Taylor replied: “What you’ve seen with ambient voice technology is that kind of ‘let a thousand flowers bloom’ approach has got its limits.”
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Earlier this year, the health secretary appeared to suggest unapproved technology was being used – but celebrated it as a sign doctors were enthusiastic for change.
Mr Streeting said: “I’ve heard anecdotally down the pub, genuinely down the pub, that some clinicians are getting ahead of the game and are already using ambient AI to kind of record notes and things, even where their practice or their trust haven’t yet caught up with them.
“Now, lots of issues there – not encouraging it – but it does tell me that contrary to this, ‘Oh, people don’t want to change, staff are very happy and they are really resistant to change’, it’s the opposite. People are crying out for this stuff.”
Image: GP Anil Mehta says AI software helps cut paperwork and patients are ‘extremely reassured’
Doctors who use AI that complies with national standards already say there are big benefits.
Anil Mehta, a doctor in the health secretary’s Ilford constituency, told Sky News he backed his MP’s drive for more AI technology in healthcare.
Dr Mehta demonstrated the version of Ambient Voice Technology that he uses.
This software, Accurx Scribe, has been developed and deployed in line with all current NHS England requirements for AVT, and there is no suggestion this product breaches any rules, standards or guidance.
Indeed, the company which developed it meets weekly with NHS England on creating a standardised approach to scale the benefits across the NHS.
“I spend 30% of my week doing paperwork,” Dr Mehta said.
“So I think once I’ve explained all of those features of what we’re doing, patients are extremely reassured. And I haven’t faced anybody that’s not wanted to have me do this.
He added: “(I) think that consultation with your doctor is extremely confidential, so that’s not changed at all.
“That remains confidential – so whether it’s a vulnerable adult, a vulnerable child, teenager, young child with a parent, I think the concept of that confidentiality remains.”
An NHS spokesperson said: “Ambient Voice Technology has the potential to transform care and improve efficiency and in April, the NHS issued guidance to support its use in a safe and secure way.
“We are working with NHS organisations and suppliers to ensure that all Ambient Voice Technology products used across the health service continue to be compliant with NHS standards on clinical safety and data security.”
Another heatwave could be on the way this weekend, forecasters say.
Temperatures could reach 30C, but some showers are expected before then amid more changeable weather.
Some parts of the UK will experience highs of 29C on Saturday, with the potential for 30C on Sunday and 31C on Monday, according to the Met Office.
Last Saturday was the hottest day of the year so far, with a provisional temperature of 33.2C recorded in Charlwood, Surrey.
The Met Office confirmed “many places” in England and “one or two areas” in Wales, including Cardiff, entered a heatwave last Friday.
A heatwave is recorded when an area reaches a certain temperature – the level of which varies across the UK – for three consecutive days.
Music fans can expect a mixture of sunshine and rain at this week’s Glastonbury Festival, where more than 200,000 people are expected to attend.
Image: Some parts of the UK entered a heatwave last week. Pic: PA
‘Risk of showers and thunderstorms’
Oli Claydon, from the Met Office, said Wednesday would be “warmer” with “an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms”.
He said temperatures would reach a maximum of 27C on Thursday, with potential for heavy showers in the east and more persistent rain in the northwest of Scotland into the evening.
“Friday will see a maximum of 27C again as the high, the showers will clear away to the northeast, with local drizzle in parts of the South West and Wales through the day,” Mr Claydon added.
The South East of England is expected to experience the highest temperatures, potentially reaching 29C on Saturday and 30C on Sunday.
Temperatures could reach up to 31C on Monday, but there was lower certainty around that, Mr Claydon added.
Mr Claydon said it was possible the South East of England “could be looking at a short-lived localised heatwave”.
“When we had the warm spell last week it was much more widespread, we’re not likely to see that,” he added.