We Need More Electric Vehicles, But Extending Regulatory Incentives For EVs Is A Bad Idea
Originally published by Union of Concerned Scientists, The Equation.
By Dave Cooke, Senior Vehicles Analyst
A recent New York Times article noted that the Biden administration will be looking to use vehicle efficiency standards to boost electric vehicles sales. Our analysis shows that strong standards are the best way to accelerate toward an electric future and that we need exactly what President Biden called for: “Setting strong, clear targets where we need to go.” However, if the administration is using voluntary agreements with automakers as the basis for its proposal, as reported, we could be in for continued delay in that transformation.
Automakers continue to push for extra credit for the small number of EVs they do sell, just like the voluntary California agreements. Previous standards have already included a number of incentives for electrification, so it’s worth examining both their historical impact and their significance moving forward. This is especially important with the Biden administration set to propose new vehicle standards later this month.
What regulatory incentives are there for EVs today?
Under EPA’s vehicle emissions program, EVs are credited as having zero emissions (emitting 0 grams CO2 per mile [g/mi]). While EVs are cleaner than gasoline-powered vehicles virtually everywhere in the U.S., ignoring the emissions from the grid powering those vehicles means that every electric vehicle sold can actually reduce the global warming emissions benefits of the program in the short term because it allows automakers to sell higher emitting gasoline vehicles than they would have otherwise.
In addition to ignoring grid emissions, for model years 2017–2021, each sale of an electric vehicle is given extra credit — for example, every EV sold in model year 2017 was counted as TWO vehicles, for the purpose of compliance. These credit multipliers lead to reductions on paper towards compliance, ostensibly encouraging automakers to invest in and sell electric vehicles, but don’t actually bring down real-world emissions. Similar to ignoring grid emissions from EVs for regulatory compliance, credit multipliers allow manufacturers to sell higher-polluting gasoline vehicles the more EVs they sell.
There are additional, somewhat comparable incentives under the fuel economy program that are more complex, but the bottom line is this: these EV incentives built into the regulatory standards were intended to support early electric vehicle sales to help with long-term emissions reductions, at the cost of some additional emissions in the short term. The question now is whether this tradeoff is worth continuing.
State EV policies are a key driver of EV adoption
The complicating factor about federal regulatory incentives to spur EV adoption is that states are already leading the way. California set the first zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales requirements in the country, and ten states have since adopted those ZEV requirements (with more on the way).
Unsurprisingly, the states with ZEV requirements see more EV models and greater EV adoption. While complementary policies and differences in local demography may play a role, the data is clear: manufacturers preferentially distribute and sell EVs in states with ZEV policies. As a result, while so-called ZEV states make up less than 30 percent of the new car buying market, consumers in those states purchase nearly two-thirds of all EVs.
While a 2017 change in federal policy was supposed to incentivize EV sales around the country, states with zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales requirements are leading the way in EV adoption. Data comparing EV sales before and after those incentives show that, if anything, state ZEV policies are now doing even more to drive adoption, with ZEV states making up a larger share of EV sales since EPA’s EV multipliers took effect. Nearly 2/3 of all EVs sold are sold in ZEV states, despite them making up less than 30 percent of the total U.S. new vehicle market. And this number has increased over time, with the elimination of flexibilities like the “travel provision” and with new states like Colorado adopting ZEV standards.
The EV market is growing
While ZEV sales requirements are driving sales upwards in those states, EV sales around the country are on the rise. Are EV credit multipliers helping to drive that boost? The data raises doubts.
Apart from Tesla’s sales, which skyrocketed beginning in 2017 with the releases of the Model 3 and Model Y (which now make up more than half of all EV sales annually), EV sales have grown steadily, consistent with the pace of growth required by state ZEV policies. While there may be some additionality from federal regulatory incentives (after all, EVs are not sold exclusively in ZEV states), there has been no proportional jump in sales in response to the additional EV incentives. For automakers other than Tesla, sales have remained proportional to the number of vehicle offerings, a number which is also related to increasing state ZEV requirements (since many of those models can only be found in ZEV states).
For Tesla, it is likely that federal EV incentives have helped support growth, since the sale of overcompliance credits to EV laggards like Stellantis (fka Fiat-Chrysler) and Mercedes helps improve profit margins on their EV offerings. However, such credits are reducing the incentive for those companies themselves to invest in electrification, so it is not clear how much of a win even Tesla’s bonus credits are, on net.
EV sales in states like California which require manufacturers to sell EVs track those requirements, indicating that at most federal policy is serving to facilitate the remaining 30-35 percent of EV sales. However, that spillover to the rest of the country is largely just proportional to the number of EVs offered, a feature which is also related to increasing ZEV requirements. While Tesla saw a large spike in sales nationwide with the release of its mass market Model 3 and Model Y, no other substantial increase in sales is observable resulting from the change in EPA EV incentives in 2017. (Note: State ZEV policies are based on complex credit accumulation, so the “ZEV obligation” represents an estimated annual sales requirement taking into account the average number of credits per vehicle and flexibilities in the regulation regarding non-EV sales.)
Growth in EV sales predominantly coming from Tesla and from sales in ZEV states indicates that federal emissions regulations (applicable to all states) are not a primary driver of EV sales. So if EPA’s incentives are not driving additional sales, overcrediting EVs act simply as a windfall to manufacturers for responding to other policies and incentives. This is especially important to reflect upon when manufacturers like GM clamoring for more of those credits are doing so to undermine the state programs helping to drive adoption.
This means the so-called incentives act only to weaken the federal program, and they are doing so at a significant environmental cost. Since 2011, manufacturers have reduced lifetime fleet emissions by nearly 1 billion metric tons by responding to strong standards set under the Obama administration — however, an additional 66 million metric tons of extra EV credits were used for compliance, resulting in a relative increase in emissions and fuel use of nearly 7 percent over where we’d be without those incentives. (To the extent that the grid continues to get cleaner with time, the long-term impact will be reduced somewhat, but the broader point remains.)
EV regulatory incentives can actually REDUCE overall EV sales
While EPA’s incentives appear to have little positive impact thus far, extending those incentives could be much worse. A recent economic analysis presented at a conference on energy and economic policy noted the potential hazards of overcrediting as EV technology improves:
- Pairing an EV multiplier with a lack of accounting for grid emissions for charging EVs directly, and significantly, reduces the stringency of a standard.
- Automakers have an incentive to sell less-efficient gasoline-powered vehicles under regulations which include a higher EV credit multiplier.
- EV incentives can increase EV adoption rates when sales are small and/or technology costs are high.
- BUT as soon as electric vehicles approach being priced competitively with conventional vehicles, extra credits become likely to decrease EV market share because fewer EVs are needed to comply.
While those first three points are all reasonably intuitive, it is that fourth point which has the most impact as we look to the next generation of fuel economy and emissions standards to help drive the industry towards our climate goals — offering extra credits for EVs could actually reduce the incentive to sell more of them.
UCS modeling shows that setting strong federal standards without specific EV incentives would save consumers tens of billions of dollars more than the type of credit-heavy proposal offered by industry, protecting lives, increasing jobs, and leading to more electric vehicles in the process. (For more details, see this blog.)
This data is consistent with our own analysis, which showed that extending EV credit multipliers would lead to fewer EVs on the road. As both analyses show, any EV sales with all these extra credits drastically reduces the overall stringency of the standard a manufacturer must meet — this reduction in stringency reduces the need for technology deployment to meet the standard (it’s easier), allowing for manufacturers to increase sales of gasoline-powered vehicles at the expense of more EVs.
On top of this, those remaining internal combustion engine vehicles are less efficient than they otherwise would have been, which is particularly problematic when EVs are still a small (but growing) share of the overall new car market. While this may be a gold mine for automakers, it’s disastrous for the environment. Clearly, we need a new direction.
The best way to get more EVs nationwide is setting strong standards
EVs are on the cusp of cost parity, and manufacturers are offering more and more models, including in popular vehicle classes like crossovers and pick-ups. This puts the industry poised to accelerate the transition to electrification. But as we move through that transition, we need to be driving emissions down in our gasoline-powered cars and trucks as well.
The best way to maximize emissions reductions as we move towards a more sustainable fleet is to set standards that are based on the real-world performance of these vehicles and ensure emissions are being reduced across the entire new vehicle fleet. The types of bonus credits manufacturers have asked for push us in the wrong direction, undermine emissions reductions, and are counterproductive for electrifying the transportation system.
Vehicles sold in the next few years will remain on the road for nearly two decades, impacting the climate for many more years to come. As the current administration moves forward to right the wrongs of the previous administration, we need to learn from the data and develop strong policies that will drive the industry forward, not policies with the kinds of hand-outs that have repeatedly delayed climate action. While we need to electrify passenger cars and trucks as quickly as possible, it is critical that our fuel economy and emissions standards not just help accelerate that transition, but do so while driving continued improvements in gasoline-powered vehicles as well.
![Get these 0% financing deals before Trump kills the EV tax credits [UPDATE]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/12/2024-Ford-Mustang-Mach-E-Off-Roading.jpg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
We don’t want to sound alarmist, but it sure looks like President-elect Donald Trump and his billionaire buddies are plotting to kill federal EV tax credits somewhat sooner than later – and the tariffs they’re promising aren’t going to make cars cheaper anytime soon, either. So if you’re in the market for a new EV, the time is now to score a sweet 0% financing deal and get those tax credits (while you still can).
UPDATE: we’ve got a few new additions for the closing days of 2024, including sweet deals on the Mustang Mach-E GT (above), Toyota bZ4X, and more!
As I was putting this December list together, I realized there were plenty of ways for me to present this information. “Best EVs to park under a Christmas tree ..?” Too opinion based. “EVs with the biggest discounts ..?” Too much research. In the end, I decided to list these 0% financing deals in alphabetical order, by make.
And, trust me: they’ll all look great with a big red bow on them. Enjoy!
Acura
The new-for-2024 Acura ZDX uses a GM Ultium battery and drive motors, but the styling, interior, and infotainment software are all Honda. What that means is that you’ll get a solidly-built EV with GM levels of parts support and Honda levels of fit, finish, and quality control. All that plus Apple CarPlay and 0% financing for 24-72 months makes this (arguably) the best Ultium-based sporty crossover yet.
Chevrolet
All three of Chevrolet’s EVs carry 0% financing offers for the month of December – and they’re all winners. The Silverado is an incredibly capable pickup that can be spec’ed up to a 10,500 lb. GVWR, making it eligible for Class 3 incentives up to $30,000 in some markets and capable enough to tow whatever horse, boat, or RV you put behind it.
On the crossover side, both the Chevy Blazer EV and Equinox EV offer their own takes on the five-passenger SUV formula, with the cost of base model Equinox LT FWD models with 319 miles of EPA-rated range dropping to just $27,500 after you apply that $7,500 tax credit.
Ford
The Ford F-150 Lightning is a reasonably capable half-ton truck with V2X capabilities that first proved themselves during Texas’ ice storms, and ship with a world of aftermarket support baked in. Ford Pro customers buying an F-150 Lightning for their commercial or public fleet can get even better deals on the OG electric trucks – meaning your fleet manager would be crazy not to take a look at one.
If you’re looking for something a little more sporty, you can get a killer deal on a new 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E (shown, at top). In addition to 0% financing for 72 months, you can now stack that offer with $5,000 in bonus cash plus an extra $1,500 in conquest cash if you’re trading in a Tesla.
GMC
The big Ultium-based EVs from GM’s dedicated truck brand are impressive beats, with lightning-quick 0-60 acceleration and on-road handling that seems to defy the laws of physics once you understand that these are, essentially, medium-duty trucks. If you’re a fan of heavy metal, you’ll definitely want to stop by your local GMC dealer and give the Hummer EV and Sierra Denali EV a test drive.
Hyundai
One of my all-time favorite retro rides, this Hyundai Pony/Lancia Delta-inspired Hyundai IONIQ 5 combines practical five-passenger packaging and a light, airy interior with serious driving fun. If they sold it in bright white with Martini decals from the factory, I’d already have two.
Kia
If you were waiting for a three-row SUV from a mainstream brand with a great warranty and normal doors, you’ve probably already checked out the Kia EV9. You’re not alone. Kia keeps setting EV sales records, and the EV9 is helping to drive those sales forward … but the EV9 isn’t the only battery-powered Kia that’s drawing fans.
On the sportier side of the dealership, the Kia EV6 offers supercar-baiting levels of straight-line performance in the top GT trims – and even the base models offer a rewarding experience behind the steering wheel. What’s more, with an updated model coming for 2025, the ’24 models are ripe for the picking.
Nissan
The Nissan Ariya is a victim – and, frankly, it deserves better than its status as a heavily discounted also-ran in the five passenger crossover race, if only because Nissan has been flying the flag of electrification since the launch of the original LEAF EV since 2010 two years before Tesla launched its Model S in 2012. Despite the head start, though, Nissan never gained enough momentum to stay ahead in the EV race.
I drove the car at Chicago Drives Electric a few weeks ago, and it seemed like it was well worth the (discounted) price to me. With 0% financing for 72 months like I’m seeing advertised all over my news feeds? The Ariya is a better deal than ever.
Subaru
Despite being something of a slow seller, this mechanical twin of the Toyota bZ4X EV seems like a solid mid-size electric crossover with some outdoorsy vibes and granola style that offers more than enough utility to carry your mountain bikes to the trail or your kayaks to the river.
Toyota
Toyota hybrids are a hot commodity right now, and we haven’t seen any newsworthy holiday discount deals from Toyota in years. That said, the bZ4X EV might be the best deal in Toyota’s end-of-the-year lineup with big discounts on both 2024 and 2025 model year bZ4X crossovers happening now. Through January 6th, you can score 0% financing for 72 months plus $2,500 in TFS bonus cash.
Volkswagen
One of the most popular legacy EVs, the ID.4 offers Volkswagen build quality and (for 2024) a Chat-GPT enabled interface. Still, with a relatively affordable base price, lickety-quick charging, up to 291 miles of EPA-rated range, and a 5-star safety rating, the ID.4 offers a value proposition that’s tough to beat.
This month, the only way to beat the ID.4’s 0% financing for 72 months would be to convince the bank to pay you to buy it.
Disclaimer: the vehicle models and financing deals above were found on CarEdge and CarsDirect, and may not be available in every market, with every discount, or to every buyer (the standard “with approved credit” fine print should be considered implied). Check with your local dealer(s) for more information about discounts and rebates.
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New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced $28.5 million in additional funding being made available to install DC fast chargers for private and commercial EVs driving along major travel corridors across the Empire State.
Funded by the federal National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) formula funding program, the State’s new competitive Downstate Direct Current Fast Charger (DCFC) program will improve consumer access to reliable electric vehicle (EV) charging.
This second round of NEVI funding will focus on installing new DC fast charging locations south of Interstate 84, including sites in the lower Hudson Valley, New York City, and Long Island.
“This critical federal NEVI funding supports New York State’s ongoing leadership to invest in a network of electric vehicle fast chargers, particularly in areas downstate that face heavy traffic,” explains Governor Hochul. “Making quick, reliable charging easily available will encourage more people to drive EVs that help to lower pollution from vehicles, provide cleaner air for New Yorkers, and improve health in our communities.”
The new chargers will meet all current NEVI requirements, which means they’ll be located within one travel mile of an AFC (alternative fuel corridor) highway exit, being publicly accessible 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and having the ability to charge at least four EVs simultaneously at speeds of at least 150 kW per vehicle.
Proposals that address gaps between existing and planned charging stations, offer amenities such as restrooms and food, or have stations that provide multiple types of charging connectors (ex.: both CCS and J3400, or Tesla/NACS), will be prioritized for the new funding.
The state of New York is investing nearly $3 billion to electrify its transportation sector, which is vital to meeting the State’s sweeping climate and clean energy plan, the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act. Under Governor Hochul’s leadership, New York is rapidly advancing measures that all new passenger cars and trucks sold, as well as school buses, be zero emission vehicles by 2035.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Governor Kathy Hochul.
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Motiv Electric Trucks may not grab all the headlines, but it’s been quietly putting electric box vans to work throughout California for the past fifteen years. And, last week, the company’s commercial EV fleet logged its five millionth all-electric mile driven.
According to Motiv’s press materials, fully 45% of the electric step vans in California today are Motive Electric Trucks. That translates to more than 370 electric vans operating daily shifts throughout the Golden State, racking up not just five million miles of all-electric driving, but racking up other big stats as well.
What kind of stats? Try these: over 300 million pounds of goods delivered, more than 15 million pounds of CO2 “saved” compared to conventional diesel, nearly a ton of PM 2.5 particulate matter, and – most crucial of all – more than 98% uptime.
That’s the kind of performance that leads to high levels of customer satisfaction, and Motiv has that, too. The company says its 200-mile range step vans lead the industry when it comes to repeat and follow-on orders, citing that since delivering its first EV in 2009, fully 64% of its new vehicle sales have been to repeat customers like Purolator, Vestis (formerly Aramark Uniform Services), Cintas, Bimbo Bakeries, and Shasta Linen Supply.
“We are very appreciative of our customers for believing in us, sharing our vision of cleaner commerce, and investing clean trucking to benefit their communities,” explains Scott Griffith, CEO of Motiv. “We’re also grateful for our employees and partners who produce such high quality and safe vehicles to make this milestone possible. We’re already looking ahead to the next 5 million miles.”
Electrek’s Take
Motiv is one of those companies that you root for. They took a huge risk when they launched in 2009, and took an even bigger risk more recently when they decided to develop their own proprietary operator cab and chassis, the Argo (prototype shown in white, above).
As much fun as all that is, though, it’s comments like these (below) that really make me hope Motiv continues to succeed – because they seem to get it.
Poor air quality caused by fossil-powered trucks disproportionally affects low-income communities and communities of color, as pollution is found in higher rates near highways, warehouses and ports, where these communities abound. Long-term exposure to poor air quality causes increased death rates attributed to cardiovascular diseases and has been linked to lung cancer.
Additionally, children who grow up in areas with high levels of pollution show reduced lung function, increased rates of asthma and lower IQ levels in their teens. Each electric mile our customers drive helps reduce these public health issues, for the benefit of everyone along the route.
When vehicle manufacturers start to look at the damage that ICEs have done, and continue to do their communities, and fess up to lasting, generational impact caused by the sort of lazy and/or corrupt government policies Americans have endured for decades, it’s hard not to think of them as “the good guys.” Here’s hoping that the good guys everywhere eventually win out.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Motive Electric Trucks.
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