We Need More Electric Vehicles, But Extending Regulatory Incentives For EVs Is A Bad Idea
Originally published by Union of Concerned Scientists, The Equation.
By Dave Cooke, Senior Vehicles Analyst
A recent New York Times article noted that the Biden administration will be looking to use vehicle efficiency standards to boost electric vehicles sales. Our analysis shows that strong standards are the best way to accelerate toward an electric future and that we need exactly what President Biden called for: “Setting strong, clear targets where we need to go.” However, if the administration is using voluntary agreements with automakers as the basis for its proposal, as reported, we could be in for continued delay in that transformation.
Automakers continue to push for extra credit for the small number of EVs they do sell, just like the voluntary California agreements. Previous standards have already included a number of incentives for electrification, so it’s worth examining both their historical impact and their significance moving forward. This is especially important with the Biden administration set to propose new vehicle standards later this month.
What regulatory incentives are there for EVs today?
Under EPA’s vehicle emissions program, EVs are credited as having zero emissions (emitting 0 grams CO2 per mile [g/mi]). While EVs are cleaner than gasoline-powered vehicles virtually everywhere in the U.S., ignoring the emissions from the grid powering those vehicles means that every electric vehicle sold can actually reduce the global warming emissions benefits of the program in the short term because it allows automakers to sell higher emitting gasoline vehicles than they would have otherwise.
In addition to ignoring grid emissions, for model years 2017–2021, each sale of an electric vehicle is given extra credit — for example, every EV sold in model year 2017 was counted as TWO vehicles, for the purpose of compliance. These credit multipliers lead to reductions on paper towards compliance, ostensibly encouraging automakers to invest in and sell electric vehicles, but don’t actually bring down real-world emissions. Similar to ignoring grid emissions from EVs for regulatory compliance, credit multipliers allow manufacturers to sell higher-polluting gasoline vehicles the more EVs they sell.
There are additional, somewhat comparable incentives under the fuel economy program that are more complex, but the bottom line is this: these EV incentives built into the regulatory standards were intended to support early electric vehicle sales to help with long-term emissions reductions, at the cost of some additional emissions in the short term. The question now is whether this tradeoff is worth continuing.
State EV policies are a key driver of EV adoption
The complicating factor about federal regulatory incentives to spur EV adoption is that states are already leading the way. California set the first zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales requirements in the country, and ten states have since adopted those ZEV requirements (with more on the way).
Unsurprisingly, the states with ZEV requirements see more EV models and greater EV adoption. While complementary policies and differences in local demography may play a role, the data is clear: manufacturers preferentially distribute and sell EVs in states with ZEV policies. As a result, while so-called ZEV states make up less than 30 percent of the new car buying market, consumers in those states purchase nearly two-thirds of all EVs.
While a 2017 change in federal policy was supposed to incentivize EV sales around the country, states with zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales requirements are leading the way in EV adoption. Data comparing EV sales before and after those incentives show that, if anything, state ZEV policies are now doing even more to drive adoption, with ZEV states making up a larger share of EV sales since EPA’s EV multipliers took effect. Nearly 2/3 of all EVs sold are sold in ZEV states, despite them making up less than 30 percent of the total U.S. new vehicle market. And this number has increased over time, with the elimination of flexibilities like the “travel provision” and with new states like Colorado adopting ZEV standards.
The EV market is growing
While ZEV sales requirements are driving sales upwards in those states, EV sales around the country are on the rise. Are EV credit multipliers helping to drive that boost? The data raises doubts.
Apart from Tesla’s sales, which skyrocketed beginning in 2017 with the releases of the Model 3 and Model Y (which now make up more than half of all EV sales annually), EV sales have grown steadily, consistent with the pace of growth required by state ZEV policies. While there may be some additionality from federal regulatory incentives (after all, EVs are not sold exclusively in ZEV states), there has been no proportional jump in sales in response to the additional EV incentives. For automakers other than Tesla, sales have remained proportional to the number of vehicle offerings, a number which is also related to increasing state ZEV requirements (since many of those models can only be found in ZEV states).
For Tesla, it is likely that federal EV incentives have helped support growth, since the sale of overcompliance credits to EV laggards like Stellantis (fka Fiat-Chrysler) and Mercedes helps improve profit margins on their EV offerings. However, such credits are reducing the incentive for those companies themselves to invest in electrification, so it is not clear how much of a win even Tesla’s bonus credits are, on net.
EV sales in states like California which require manufacturers to sell EVs track those requirements, indicating that at most federal policy is serving to facilitate the remaining 30-35 percent of EV sales. However, that spillover to the rest of the country is largely just proportional to the number of EVs offered, a feature which is also related to increasing ZEV requirements. While Tesla saw a large spike in sales nationwide with the release of its mass market Model 3 and Model Y, no other substantial increase in sales is observable resulting from the change in EPA EV incentives in 2017. (Note: State ZEV policies are based on complex credit accumulation, so the “ZEV obligation” represents an estimated annual sales requirement taking into account the average number of credits per vehicle and flexibilities in the regulation regarding non-EV sales.)
Growth in EV sales predominantly coming from Tesla and from sales in ZEV states indicates that federal emissions regulations (applicable to all states) are not a primary driver of EV sales. So if EPA’s incentives are not driving additional sales, overcrediting EVs act simply as a windfall to manufacturers for responding to other policies and incentives. This is especially important to reflect upon when manufacturers like GM clamoring for more of those credits are doing so to undermine the state programs helping to drive adoption.
This means the so-called incentives act only to weaken the federal program, and they are doing so at a significant environmental cost. Since 2011, manufacturers have reduced lifetime fleet emissions by nearly 1 billion metric tons by responding to strong standards set under the Obama administration — however, an additional 66 million metric tons of extra EV credits were used for compliance, resulting in a relative increase in emissions and fuel use of nearly 7 percent over where we’d be without those incentives. (To the extent that the grid continues to get cleaner with time, the long-term impact will be reduced somewhat, but the broader point remains.)
EV regulatory incentives can actually REDUCE overall EV sales
While EPA’s incentives appear to have little positive impact thus far, extending those incentives could be much worse. A recent economic analysis presented at a conference on energy and economic policy noted the potential hazards of overcrediting as EV technology improves:
- Pairing an EV multiplier with a lack of accounting for grid emissions for charging EVs directly, and significantly, reduces the stringency of a standard.
- Automakers have an incentive to sell less-efficient gasoline-powered vehicles under regulations which include a higher EV credit multiplier.
- EV incentives can increase EV adoption rates when sales are small and/or technology costs are high.
- BUT as soon as electric vehicles approach being priced competitively with conventional vehicles, extra credits become likely to decrease EV market share because fewer EVs are needed to comply.
While those first three points are all reasonably intuitive, it is that fourth point which has the most impact as we look to the next generation of fuel economy and emissions standards to help drive the industry towards our climate goals — offering extra credits for EVs could actually reduce the incentive to sell more of them.
UCS modeling shows that setting strong federal standards without specific EV incentives would save consumers tens of billions of dollars more than the type of credit-heavy proposal offered by industry, protecting lives, increasing jobs, and leading to more electric vehicles in the process. (For more details, see this blog.)
This data is consistent with our own analysis, which showed that extending EV credit multipliers would lead to fewer EVs on the road. As both analyses show, any EV sales with all these extra credits drastically reduces the overall stringency of the standard a manufacturer must meet — this reduction in stringency reduces the need for technology deployment to meet the standard (it’s easier), allowing for manufacturers to increase sales of gasoline-powered vehicles at the expense of more EVs.
On top of this, those remaining internal combustion engine vehicles are less efficient than they otherwise would have been, which is particularly problematic when EVs are still a small (but growing) share of the overall new car market. While this may be a gold mine for automakers, it’s disastrous for the environment. Clearly, we need a new direction.
The best way to get more EVs nationwide is setting strong standards
EVs are on the cusp of cost parity, and manufacturers are offering more and more models, including in popular vehicle classes like crossovers and pick-ups. This puts the industry poised to accelerate the transition to electrification. But as we move through that transition, we need to be driving emissions down in our gasoline-powered cars and trucks as well.
The best way to maximize emissions reductions as we move towards a more sustainable fleet is to set standards that are based on the real-world performance of these vehicles and ensure emissions are being reduced across the entire new vehicle fleet. The types of bonus credits manufacturers have asked for push us in the wrong direction, undermine emissions reductions, and are counterproductive for electrifying the transportation system.
Vehicles sold in the next few years will remain on the road for nearly two decades, impacting the climate for many more years to come. As the current administration moves forward to right the wrongs of the previous administration, we need to learn from the data and develop strong policies that will drive the industry forward, not policies with the kinds of hand-outs that have repeatedly delayed climate action. While we need to electrify passenger cars and trucks as quickly as possible, it is critical that our fuel economy and emissions standards not just help accelerate that transition, but do so while driving continued improvements in gasoline-powered vehicles as well.
Fossil fuels just hit a record low in the US electricity mix last month, while solar and wind soared to all-time highs, according to fresh data from global energy think tank Ember.
In March 2025, fossil fuels accounted for less than 50% – 49.2% – of electricity generated for the first month on record. This beats the previous monthly record low of 51% set in April 2024.
“This clearly demonstrates the growing role of wind and solar in the US energy system,” said Nicolas Fulghum, senior analyst at global energy think tank Ember. “This is a first signal that the US is approaching a tipping point where clean power takes the lead over fossil generation, and where the importance of coal and gas inevitably starts to fade.”
What this means is that clean energy generated more than half – 50.8% – of US electricity for the first month on record. The record was driven by a surge in wind and solar power, which hit a new high of 24.4% of US electricity in March 2025.
In March 2025, US solar increased an astonishing 37% (+8.3 TWh) compared to March 2024. Wind increased by 12% (+5.7 TWh). Together, wind and solar reached an all-time high, generating 83 TWh of US electricity, 11% higher than the previous record of 75 TWh set in April 2024. Fossil fuel generation fell by 2.5% (-4.3 TWh) compared to March 2024.
The milestone is the result of a long-term decline of fossil generation in the US power sector, with wind and solar growing substantially over the last decade. In March 2015, fossil generation still provided 65% of US electricity generation. Wind and solar generation stood at just 5.7%. Since then, the share of wind and solar power has more than quadrupled.
“Wind and solar power are pushing fossil fuels out of the mix,” said Fulghum. “The reality on the ground is not one of a return to fossil fuels in the US, it’s the continued growth of solar and wind power that will be the dominant driver of electricity generation growth in the US.”
Solar power is set to account for more than half of new generating capacity installed in the US in 2025, with more than a third of new solar panels going to Texas. Solar adoption has exploded in just a decade. In March 2015, solar power accounted for just 1% of US electricity generation. By March 2025, it’s grown to 9.2%.
Last month, Ember published the report “US Electricity 2025,” which covered changes and trends in the US power sector in 2024. Solar was the fastest and largest growing source of electricity in the US in 2024. Wind and solar combined rose to a record 17% of the US electricity mix in 2024, overtaking coal for the first time, which accounted for 15%.
Read more: Made-in-America solar just got a big win in Louisiana
To limit power outages and make your home more resilient, consider going solar with a battery storage system. In order to find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and you share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Lease deals get all the hype, but most people still want to own the car after they’re done making all those payments on it. If that sounds like you, and you’ve been waiting for the interest rates on auto loans to drop, you’re in luck: there are a bunch of great plug-in cars you can buy with 0% financing and at pre-tariff prices this April!
As I was putting this list together, I realized there were plenty of ways for me to present this information. “Best EVs ..?” Too opinion based. “Cheapest EVs ..?” Too much research. “Best deal ..?” That’s usually subjective, but as automakers and dealers rush to raise prices in anticipation of Trump’s tariffs, two brands – Ford and Nissan – stand apart.
In the end, I went with alphabetical order, by make, so you’ll find out more about Ford and Nissan’s approach to the new market reality when you get to them. And, as for which deals are new this month? You’re just gonna have to read the article. Enjoy!
Acura ZDX
Manufactured in Spring Hill, Tennessee, the 2024 Acura ZDX uses a GM Ultium battery and drive motors, but the styling, interior, and infotainment software are all Honda. That means you’ll get a solidly-built EV with GM levels of parts support and Honda levels of fit, finish, and quality control. All that plus Apple CarPlay and (through April 30th) 0% financing for up to 72 months makes the ZDX one the best sporty crossover values in the business.
Chevy Blazer, Equinox EVs
Both the Chevy Blazer EV and Equinox EV are manufactured at GM’s Ramos Arizpe plant in Coahuila, Mexico, and each offers their own takes on the five-passenger family SUV. Despite any incoming tariffs, the crossovers you’ll find on dealer lots today still represent a solid value, with the cost of base model Equinox LT FWD models with 319 miles of EPA-rated range dropping to just $27,500 after you apply the $7,500 Federal tax credit (for now, still a thing).
Chrysler Pacifica PHEV
When the plug-in hybrid version of the Chrysler Pacifica minivan first went on sale all the way back in 2016, it seemed to imply that the old Chrysler Corporation was going to race ahead of the other Big Three US carmakers.
That didn’t happen, but the Pacifica is still the king of cupholders, while the van’s stow n’ go seating, and all the other practical, clever details that add up to remind you Chrysler invented these things – and through April 30th, you can get 0% financing for up to 72 months on 2025 MY examples of this made-in-Canada plug-in hybrid and cover up to 32 miles of your daily driving needs on the clean, pure power of electrons.
Ford Mustang Mach-E
As I mentioned at the top of the article, both Ford and Nissan have taken steps to push back against the Trump tariffs – and in Ford’s case, that means big discounts, employee pricing for all, and free chargers for EV buyers.
In addition to employee pricing, 2024 Mustang Mach-Es continue to offer 0% APR financing for up to 72 months. That offer appears to be stackable with $2,500 in bonus cash, too, and Tesla owners and lessees can also score $1,000 in conquest cash for up to $3,500 off.
GMC HUMMER EV
The biggest of the Ultium-based EVs, these Hamtramck, Michigan-built machines are seriously impressive EVs, with shockingly quick acceleration and on-road handling that seems to defy the laws of physics once you understand that these are, essentially, medium-duty trucks. If you’re a fan of heavy metal (and plastic), you’ll definitely want to stop by your local GMC dealer and give the rugged GMC HUMMER EV a test drive.
Honda Prologue
Manufactured alongside its GM siblings at the Ramos Arizpe plant in Coahuila, Mexico, the hot-selling Honda Prologue pairs GM’s excellent Ultium platform with Honda sensibilities and Apple CarPlay to create a winning combination.
If you’ve been holding off, we’ve got good news: there’s still a few remaining 2024 models in dealer inventory out there. To make room for the 2025 models, Honda is offering 0% APR for up to 72 months on the remaining 2024s.
Click here to find a 0% interest (72 mo.) deal on a 2024 Prologue near you.
Hyundai IONIQ 6
The ultra-efficient Hyundai IONIQ 6 is one of the most compelling Model 3 competitors out there – but that could change if the Korean-built sedan gets hit with heavy tariffs. To make sure that doesn’t happen, Hyundai is investing tens of billions of dollars into a US manufacturing base, creating new American jobs and ensuring (kinda) that it can continue to deliver real value to its customers.
The fast-charging IONIQ 6 offers up to 342 miles of range on its most efficient version, while even the shortest range models offer 220 miles of range. Through April 30th, Hyundai is offering a rare 0% interest deal on remaining 2024 examples of its slippery sedan for up to 48 months.
All the Kia EVs
Kia has something for just about everyone in its EV range, from the fun, compact, and underrated Niro EV to the practical three-row EV9 to the supercar-baiting performance of the Kia EV6 – a car that made its global debut on a drag strip running alongside a Lamborghini, a Porsche, and an AMG Mercedes GT.
Through April 30th, you can get 0% interest on just about every new EV you’ll find on your Kia dealer’s lot (minus 2025 Kia EV6 models). Click the links below to find yours.
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
One of the first three-row plugin cars to hit the market, Mitsubishi’s Outlander PHEV has always presented a strong value proposition with up to 38 miles of electric range from its 20 kWh li-ion battery and room for seven (in a pinch), making it a great “lily pad” vehicle for suburban families who want to drive electric but still worry about being able to find a charging station when they need one.
That might change when the tariffs take full effect, however – so if you’re looking for an affordable 7-passenger plug-in with a great safety rating at a reasonably affordable price, act fast.
Nissan Ariya
I’ve already said that the Nissan Ariya didn’t get a fair shake. If you click that link, you’ll read about a car that offers solid driving dynamics, innovative interior design, and all the practicality that makes five-passenger crossovers the must-haves they’ve become for most families. Now, Nissan is slashing prices across the line as their competitors are raising theirs, making the case for the Ariya even stronger than before.
With great discounts available at participating dealers, Supercharger access, and 0% interest from Nissan for up to 72 months on both 2024 and 25 MY Ariya EVs.
Toyota bZ4X
Built in Toyota City, Japan, the bZ4X EV is a capable, dependable crossover with room for five and Toyota’s reputation for reliability and longevity to boot. With 0% financing and big discounts on both 2024 and 2025 models, the bZ4X might be the best deal on your local Toyota dealer’s lot.
Volkswagen ID.4
One of the most popular legacy EVs, the ID.4 offers Volkswagen build quality and (for 2024) a Chat-GPT enabled interface. To keep ID.4 sales rolling, VW dealers are getting aggressive with discounts, making this fast-charging, 291 mile EPA-rated range, 5-star safety rated EV a value proposition that’s tough to beat.
This month, get a Volkswagen ID.4 fresh from the company’s Chattanooga, Tennessee assembly plant with 0% financing for up to 72 months plus a $5,000 customer cash bonus on remaining 2024 models to stack with it.
Disclaimer: the vehicle models and financing deals above were sourced from CarsDirect, CarEdge, CarFax, USNews, and (where mentioned) the OEM websites – and were current as of 03APR2025. These deals may not be available in every market, with every discount, or for every buyer (the standard “with approved credit” fine print should be considered implied). Check with your local dealer(s) for more information.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Environment
Why OPEC+ is accelerating oil production as prices are tanking and tariffs hammer markets
The Phillips 66 Company’s Los Angeles Refinery in California.
Bing Guan | Reuters
The oil price outlook is being hit with more bearish forecasts on the back of U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping and market-hammering tariff announcements. Businesses and investors worry that a trade war and lower global growth lies ahead.
Goldman Sachs on Thursday reduced its December 2025 forecasts for global and U.S. benchmarks Brent crude and WTI by $5 to $66 and $62 a barrel, respectively, “because the two key downside risks we have flagged are realizing, namely tariff escalation and somewhat higher OPEC+ supply.”
The bank also cut its forecasts for the oil benchmarks in 2025 and 2026, adding that “we no longer forecast a price range, because price volatility is likely to stay elevated on higher recession risk.” Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence predict that in a worst-case scenario, global oil demand growth could be slashed by 500,000 barrels per day.
JPMorgan, for its part, raised its recession odds for the global economy to 60% for this year, up from a previous forecast of 40%.
Markets were therefore stunned when OPEC, which produces about 40% of the world’s crude oil — along with its non-OPEC allies that together comprise OPEC+ — chose not only to go ahead with its previously held plans to increase oil production, but also to nearly triple the expected increase figure.
Eight key OPEC+ producers on Thursday agreed to raise combined crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day, speeding up the pace of their scheduled hikes and pushing down oil prices. The group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — was widely expected to implement an increase of just under 140,000 barrels per day next month.
The news pushed oil prices 6% lower.
OPEC+ bullishness and appeasing Trump
Several factors underpin the oil-producing alliance’s decision. One is that the group is bullish on oil demand later in the year, putting it firmly in the minority as investor outlooks sour and fears of a global slowdown worsen.
The eight OPEC+ members behind the production decision cited “the continuing healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook” in their statement Thursday, saying that “this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.”
The statement added that “the gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions.”
Another likely reason for the group’s move has to do with another T-word: the man in the White House, who during his first term in office and from the very start of his second, has loudly demanded that the oil producer group pump more crude to help bring down prices for Americans.
“First of all, this is partly about appeasing Trump,” Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Friday.
“Trump will be putting pressure on OPEC to reduce oil prices, which reduces global energy prices, to help offset the inflationary impact of his tariffs.”
OPEC officials have denied that the move was made to appease Trump.
Compliance and market share
Meanwhile, as compliance is a major issue for OPEC+ — with countries overproducing crude beyond their quotas, complicating the group’s efforts to control how much supply it allows into the market — the move could be a way to enforce that, according to Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research at RBC Capital Markets.
“We think a desire by the OPEC leadership to send a warning signal to Kazakhstan, Iraq, and even Russia about the cost of continued overproduction underlies the decision.”
Helima Croft
head of global commodity strategy and MENA research at RBC Capital Markets
“We think a desire by the OPEC leadership to send a warning signal to Kazakhstan, Iraq, and even Russia about the cost of continued overproduction underlies the decision,” Croft wrote in a note published Thursday. She referenced the March 2020 oil price war, when Saudi Arabia flooded the market with supply to tank oil prices and forced Russia back into compliance after Moscow initially refused to curb production to help the alliance stabilize prices. The price war caused Brent crude prices to go as low as $15 a barrel.
The production increases are also “an example of OPEC increasing their market share,” Kavonic said, adding that it “ultimately does come at the expense of the United States [shale] patch,” which U.S. producers likely will not be too thrilled about.
What happens next?
OPEC+ appears confident about the market turning a corner in the coming months on the assumption that oil demand will increase in the summer and the tariff wars will be resolved in the coming months, said Nader Itayim, editorial manager at Argus Media.
“These countries are largely comfortable with the $70, $75 per barrel band,” Itayim said.
What comes next depends on the trajectory of the tariffs and a potential trade war. Oil dropping into the $60 range could force pauses or even a reversal in OPEC+ production increase plans, analysts say – although that is likely to be met with resistance from countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan that have long been itching to increase their oil production for their own revenues.
Whatever happens, the group maintains the flexibility to adapt its plans month by month, Itayim noted.
“If things don’t quite go the way they imagine, all it does take, really, is a phone call.”
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports12 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway