One of the great puzzles emerging from the last year has been why, in spite of COVID, repeated lockdown, and surging self-isolation, recruitment agencies have seldom been busier.
Employment levels are still rising and unemployment has – so far – not become the scourge many anticipated.
In theory, such a tight labour market should generate increased salaries, and employers’ wage costs should be rising. But, overall, they aren’t.
One explanation is that in the unique circumstances of the pandemic, employers have been forcing new, less favourable, terms on their employees.
Many workers are accepting new terms, knowing that if they don’t they may be dismissed or made redundant and then have to compete for jobs they have done for years – only with less pay and fewer benefits – a practice that has become known as “fire and rehire”.
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Employers argue that COVID has accelerated change in the workplace that means that they need new kinds of flexibility from the workforce – over work breaks, or severance packages, for example – or else they will go out of business.
In straitened times, the alternatives, as they see it, are lower wages or fewer jobs.
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Research by the TUC suggests that nearly one in 10 workers have been asked to reapply for their jobs since the start of lockdown in March 2020, with young people and minorities more likely than most to face the pressure.
Major disputes have blown up in big employers such as British Airways and British Gas.
Amina Patel, a worker in adult social care in the London borough of Tower Hamlets, told me that for many of her colleagues, currently voting on a strike proposal over the issue, their anger isn’t just about money.
“It’s disrespectful. It makes you angry,” she said.
“The biggest betrayal was being fired and rehired at the height of the pandemic after everything we’d given, and still continue giving.”
Tower Hamlets Council said they “consulted extensively” with staff over changes to terms and conditions and that “no staff are on worse conditions, or pay, or have been dismissed as a result of the changes”.
Labour backbencher and former leadership contender Barry Gardiner has now tabled draft legislation that would make the practice of “fire and rehire” unlawful.
He wants to “stop managers intimidating the workforce… and going for the nuclear option right from the beginning. What I want to see is proper negotiation”.
He claims cross-party support, and points to Boris Johnson’s condemnation of employers who use dismissal as a negotiating tactic.
The government has asked ACAS to come up with new guidance for employers, though Mr Gardiner insists that change will only come through legislation.
Either way, research by ACAS makes clear that as furlough and other COVID support measures are withdrawn, the fight over “fire and rehire” is likely to become both more intense and more widespread.
Watch Trevor’s full report on Trevor Phillips on Sunday from 8.30am.
He will also be talking to Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick and Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth.
Crisis-hit Boeing has rushed to defend itself from fresh whistleblower allegations of poor practice, as the airline continues to grapple its latest safety crisis.
A Congressional investigation heard evidence on Wednesday on the safety culture and manufacturing standards at the company – rocked in January by a mid-air scare that saw an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9 flight suffer a panel blowout.
One Boeing quality engineer, Sam Salehpour, told members of a Senate subcommittee that Boeing was taking shortcuts to bolster production levels that could lead to jetliners breaking apart.
He said of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner, that has more than 1,000 in use across airlines globally including at British Airways, that excessive force was used to jam together sections of fuselage.
He claimed the extra force could compromise the carbon-composite material used for the plane’s frame.
“They are putting out defective airplanes,” he concluded, while adding that he was threatened when he raised concerns about the issue.
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The engineer said he studied Boeing’s own data and concluded “that the company is taking manufacturing shortcuts on the 787 programme that could significantly reduce the airplane’s safety and the life cycle”.
Boeing denied his claims surrounding both the Dreamliner’s structural integrity and that factory workers jumped on sections of fuselage to force them to align.
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Two Boeing engineering executives said this week that its testing and inspections regimes have found no signs of fatigue or cracking in the composite panels, saying they were almost impervious to fatigue.
The company’s track record is facing fresh scrutiny amid criticism from regulators and safety officials alike in the wake of the incident aboard the Alaska Airlines plane.
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What’s going on at Boeing?
It has become a trust issue again after the worst period in Boeing’s history when two fatal crashes, both involving MAX 8 aircraft, left 346 people dead in 2018 and 2019.
All 737 MAX 8 planes were grounded for almost two years while a fix to flawed flight control software was implemented.
A separate Senate commerce committee heard on Wednesday from members of an expert panel that found serious flaws in Boeing’s safety culture.
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Boeing CEO: ‘We fly safe planes’
One of the panel members, MIT aeronautics lecturer Javier de Luis, said employees hear Boeing leadership talk about safety, but workers feel pressure to push planes through the factory as fast as they can.
In talking to Boeing workers, he said he heard “there was a very real fear of payback and retribution if you held your ground”.
Pressure on Boeing to focus on safety has included restrictions placed on production, limiting its manufacturing output.
At the same time, it is still facing three separate investigations by the Federal Aviation Administration, the Justice Department and the National Transportation Safety Board relating to the panel blowout.
It’s not quite a Mission Accomplished moment – the equivalent of that day in 2003 when George W Bush stood on an aircraft carrier and prematurely declared the Iraq war was over.
But Jeremy Hunt’s declaration in our interview in Washington DC that he had achieved a “soft landing” in the economy certainly has a whiff of wishful thinking about it.
Economists spend much of their time dreaming that, following a crisis, or a set of crises, they will be able to engineer a slow glidepath, ensuring there is no painful economic catastrophe. Yet it rarely actually happens.
Yet peer at the data and it’s hard to share his confidence.
With interest rates still at 5.25% and inflation still above target, the squeeze families have been facing in recent years has barely abated.
The UK is expected to grow at a slower rate than nearly every other G7 economy this year, according to the latest International Monetary Fund forecasts.
Yet the chancellor is not alone in clinging to optimism.
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Here in Washington, most central bankers and finance ministers are quietly hoping that all the economic and military challenges facing them – from war in Ukraine and the Middle East to China’s tensions with America – do not crystallise into something more horrifying and all-encompassing.
They, like Jeremy Hunt, would much rather keep on talking about soft landings.
Mr Hunt said: “I think the economy, we are seeing, has turned the corner, people are beginning to feel that.”
“That will continue during the course of this year. But the fundamentals for the UK economy, yes, are very strong indeed,” he added.
The cost of living crisis, brought about by months of double-digit inflation last year, has been tough, Mr Hunt said.
But sticking to his economic plan, along with the Bank of England’s work to control interest rates, will bring about “better times”, he insisted – in a sign of the likely economic messaging from the Tories ahead of the coming general election.
“If we stick to that plan we can see that we will have better times ahead,” he said.
He added: “We don’t pretend that it hasn’t been tough, it’s been very tough in the UK and in many other countries.
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“We now have the biggest technology industry in Europe. That is a big positive for families up and down the country in the years ahead.”
A whiff of wishful thinking about Hunt’s declaration of economic ‘soft landing’
It’s not quite a Mission Accomplished moment – the equivalent of that day in 2003 when George W Bush stood on an aircraft carrier and prematurely declared the Iraq war was over.
But Jeremy Hunt’s declaration in our interview in Washington that he had achieved a “soft landing” in the economy certainly has a whiff of wishful thinking about it.
The chancellor was at pains to insist today that in fact the outlook is strikingly positive.
Of course, that confidence comes as he gears up for an election in which the economy is likely to be centre stage.
Yet the chancellor is not alone in clinging to optimism.
Here in Washington, most central bankers and finance ministers are quietly hoping that all the economic and military challenges facing them do not crystallise.
They, like Jeremy Hunt, would much rather keep on talking about soft landings.
When asked about sanctions on Iran, following its strikes on Israel last weekend, Mr Hunt said he will be pushing for more to be added in his meetings with leaders of the G7 group of nations and with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
“What I would say is this: The talk ten days ago was of the West drifting away from its support for Israel. But when Iran attacked Israel, Western support was rock solid.
“And if Iran takes action that destabilises the global economy through what it does in the Middle East then they will face a concerted response from Western countries,” he said.
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‘I don’t want to say anything negative about Liz Truss’
Mr Hunt declined to speak ill of former prime minister Liz Truss when asked if she was harming the Conservative Party.
“I think Liz will be the first to accept that during her time as prime minister, mistakes were made,” he said of her 49-day tenure.
During her premiership government borrowing costs soared; the pound hit a 37-year low against the dollar – making imports more expensive; mortgage rates soared and the Bank of England made an unprecedented intervention to stop pension funds collapsing.
“She appointed me as chancellor. And so, you know, I don’t want to say anything negative about Liz Truss,” Mr Hunt said.