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Wisconsin plays Wisconsin football. Iowa is Iowa. Northwestern does Northwestern things. Minnesota is increasingly Minnesota. The Big Ten West might have more proven entities than any other division in college football. But for such a reliable division, the West has been pretty difficult to forecast of late.

In 2018, defending champion Wisconsin was voted a runaway favorite to repeat, with only Iowa likely to offer major resistance. Northwestern won the division by three games.

In 2019, turnover prompted a shakeup, and with Scott Frost seemingly ready for a UCF-like second-year leap, Nebraska was voted a slight favorite over Iowa. Wisconsin and Minnesota tied for the title.

In 2020, Wisconsin and Minnesota were picked to once again lead the way. Instead, Northwestern beat out Iowa by a half-game.

We’ll see who ends up the media favorite soon enough. My guess is that, with most of last year’s starters returning — and with both Iowa and especially Northwestern losing quite a few key contributors — Wisconsin will again get the nod. SP+ projects the Badgers and Iowa as the most likely teams to make a run.

Congrats in advance, then, to Purdue for winning the division. Let’s preview the Big Ten West!

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 130 FBS teams. The previews will include 2020 breakdowns, 2021 previews and a brief history of each team in one handy chart. The series has thus far covered the Conference USA East and West, the MAC East and West, the MWC Mountain and West, the Sun Belt West and East, the top and bottom half of the AAC, the seven Independents, the ACC Atlantic and Coastal, the Pac-12 North and South, and the top and bottom half of the Big 12.

Jump to a team: Illinois | Northwestern | Purdue | Minnesota | Nebraska | Iowa | Wisconsin

In 2016, Lovie Smith’s first year in charge, Illinois ranked 94th in SP+. In 2020, his last, the Fighting Illini ranked 89th. They were starting over then, and they’re starting over now.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 83rd

Average projected wins: 3.9 (2.2 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins*: Charlotte (81% win probability)

  • Relative toss-ups: Rutgers (65%), UTSA (60%), Northwestern (53%)

  • Likely losses: at Virginia (28%), Maryland (24%), at Purdue (21%), Nebraska (21%), at Minnesota (14%), Wisconsin (10%), at Iowa (8%), at Penn State (7%)

* Likely wins are games in which SP+ projects the scoring margin to be greater than seven points, or above about 65% win probability. Likely losses are the opposite, and relative toss-ups are all the games in between.

Bret Bielema inherits a roster with few guaranteed matchup advantages, but the Illini do face five teams projected outside the SP+ top 50. There are some win opportunities.

What we learned about Illinois in 2020

Smith was never the guy. Unlike other NFL-turned-college coaches, Smith never built recruiting inroads; he never built much momentum either. UI never ranked higher than 70th in offensive SP+ and only once ranked higher than 77th on defense. A former Arkansas and Wisconsin head coach, Bielema also comes from the pros, but he has far more (and more recent) college experience, at least.

The running backs and linebackers are good. Bielema likes his lines meaty and dominant, and while he inherits plenty of beef — five primary OL returnees weigh 310-plus, and defensive tackles Roderick Perry II and Calvin Avery are a combined 650 — the dominance part has lacked.

The guys who line up behind said lines, however, are solid. RBs Chase Brown and Mike Epstein each averaged over five yards per carry despite efficiency issues, and Jake Hansen leads a pretty deep stable of aggressive linebackers.

Beyond that, there are more questions than answers. Brandon Peters is the likely starter at QB, but he has been massively inconsistent, and he’s without leading WR Josh Imatorbhebhe. (Tight end Daniel Barker‘s solid.) The secondary is more experienced but no more stable than the passing personnel.

What we didn’t learn about Illinois in 2020

Is Illinois a “zig when everyone’s zagging” school? In a division with quite a few purveyors of Big Burly Manball, Illinois hired someone who has historically been exactly that. Granted, new offensive coordinator Tony Petersen has some passing success on his résumé, and Ryan Walters is an aggressive, modern defensive coordinator (though he likes to play more man coverage than his charges might be able to offer in 2021). But can Bielema figure out a way to stand out?

Illinois’ history in one chart

  1. Led by a linebacker named Butkus, Illinois went 8-1-1 and won the Rose Bowl in 1963. The Illini have been to Pasadena only twice in the 57 seasons since, losing both.

  2. In 1989, Purdue transfer Jeff George threw for 2,738 yards and led John Mackovic’s Illini to 10 wins and their first bowl victory since 1963.

  3. Led by Simeon Rice and Kevin Hardy, the Illini ranked in the defensive SP+ top 10 in both 1994 and ’95 … and went a combined 12-10-1 because of a paltry offense.

  4. Under Ron Turner, Illinois went from 0-11 in 1997, to 10-2 (with a Big Ten title) in 2001, to 1-11 in 2003. Very few schools have the upside and inconsistency to pull that off.

  5. Ron Zook was fired after leading Illinois to three winning seasons from 2007 to 2011. Winning seasons since: zero.

Much of FBS returns record levels of production; Northwestern does not. If Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats challenge for another West title, it’ll be his most impressive coaching performance yet.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 75th

Average projected wins: 4.9 (2.7 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: Indiana State (94% win probability), Rutgers (68%)

  • Relative toss-ups: Ohio (65%), at Duke (63%), at Illinois (48%), Michigan State (43%)

  • Likely losses: Purdue (33%), Minnesota (24%), at Nebraska (16%), Iowa (15%), at Michigan (14%), at Wisconsin (7%)

In the past three years, the Wildcats have won two West titles with a 3-9 campaign in between. This could be another setback season.

What we learned about Northwestern in 2020

Mike Hankwitz was phenomenal. After an incredible 13-year run as defensive coordinator, Hankwitz retired at his peak, with Northwestern ranking third in defensive SP+. The pass defense was almost perfect: The Wildcats ranked fifth in passing success rate allowed and gave up almost no big plays. They almost never blitzed — they just forced QBs into constant mistakes.

Former NFL defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil has huge shoes to fill. He has to replace two awesome cornerbacks in Greg Newsome II and Cameron Ruiz (backups A.J. Hampton, Rod Heard and Cameron Mitchell all thrived when they got the opportunity) and two dynamic run defenders in end Earnest Brown IV and linebacker Blake Gallagher. The floor’s pretty high for a Fitzgerald defense, but a drop-off is coming.

What we didn’t learn about Northwestern in 2020

Can the offense remain ranked in the double digits? Northwestern has mastered the art of winning despite its offense, but when the Wildcats fell to 123rd in offensive SP+ in 2019, it was too much to overcome.

In Mike Bajakian’s first year as offensive coordinator, they improved to 93rd. His love of tempo and physicality was an identity and an issue — Northwestern still couldn’t run the ball — but QB Peyton Ramsey frequently bailed the Wildcats out on passing downs. Ramsey and his top four targets are now gone. Sophomore backs Cam Porter and Evan Hull and Bowling Green transfer Andrew Clair have shown potential, but run game consistency is an outright must. It also might be too much to ask for.

The remodeled passing game will likely be crafted around South Carolina transfer and former blue-chip quarterback Ryan Hilinski and receivers JJ Jefferson, Bryce Kirtz, Malik Washington and Kansas transfer Stephon Robinson Jr. That foursome caught a combined 13 balls last year.

Northwestern’s history in one chart

  1. Ara Parseghian had NU ranked in the AP top 10 for parts of five seasons and briefly had the Wildcats at No. 1 in 1962. He left for Notre Dame in 1964, and things collapsed quickly.

  2. NU averaged 1.5 wins from 1976 to 1990. What was worse in retrospect: the 34-game losing streak or Dennis Green winning Big Ten Coach of the Year for going 3-8?

  3. After winning eight games in his first three seasons in charge, Gary Barnett led a 10-2 campaign and took the Purple to Pasadena in 1995. They went 9-3 the next year, too.

  4. In 2000, Randy Walker and coordinator Kevin Wilson fielded one of the most influential early versions of the spread offense. Their 54-51 win over Michigan was a classic.

  5. After Walker’s tragic passing in 2006, former star linebacker Fitzgerald was named head coach at age 31. Fifteen years later, NU continues to slowly trend upward.

Since famously destroying Ohio State in 2018, Jeff Brohm’s Boilermakers are just 8-16. They are constantly competitive but are no closer to turning a corner than they were three years ago.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 40th

Average projected wins: 5.8 (3.9 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: at UConn (95% win probability), Illinois (79%), at Northwestern (67%), Oregon State (66%)

  • Relative toss-ups: Michigan State (65%), Minnesota (45%), Indiana (43%)

  • Likely losses: at Nebraska (33%), at Notre Dame (31%), at Iowa (22%), at Wisconsin (18%), at Ohio State (14%)

Look at that road slate! The Boilers play five projected top-30 teams away from West Lafayette, which could keep the win total tamped down pretty far even if they play at a top-40 level.

What we learned about Purdue in 2020

The nibbles are still effective(ish). One of Brohm’s calling cards is the use of an extensive array of quick passes as a complement to the customary run game. More than half of Purdue’s 43.5 passes per game in 2020 were within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage. Combined with a decent run game, the Boilers had a lot of ways to gain 5 yards on you.

That’s important! But gaining 20+ yards is helpful, too, and Purdue didn’t do much of that, even before star receiver Rondale Moore opted out to prepare for the NFL draft.

With some combination of quarterbacks Aidan O’Connell and Jack Plummer, wideouts David Bell and Milton Wright and backs Zander Horvath and King Doerue, the efficiency game will again be strong. But unless a young, new weapon — Marshall WR transfer Broc Thompson? Redshirt freshman Collin Sullivan? — provides a boost in the big-play department, long drives will be Purdue’s only means of scoring.

What we didn’t learn about Purdue in 2020

Will the defense ever bounce back? Since leaping to 32nd in defensive SP+ in Brohm’s first year, Purdue’s average ranking is 76.7. The Boilermakers tackled well and prevented big plays, but they also ranked 99th in passing success rate allowed. The pass rush was nonexistent — 126th in sack rate — and despite solid output from end DaMarcus Mitchell, they had no hope of creating disruption after star end George Karlaftis was lost to injury/COVID.

Three co-coordinators, led by former Charlotte head coach Brad Lambert, will attempt to add a little more havoc to the equation this year. The return of Karlaftis and seven other starters could produce improvement, but how much?

Purdue’s history in one chart

  1. Purdue’s high point as a program came under Jack Mollenkopf from 1966 to 1968: The Boilers enjoyed three straight AP top-10 finishes and won the Rose Bowl in 1966.

  2. The key to Purdue’s 1960s success: strong QB play and Leroy Keyes, who combined for 1,989 rushing and 1,186 receiving yards and scored 36 times in 1967-68.

  3. Despite solid individual talent — Jim Everett, Rod Woodson, Chris Dishman — Purdue suffered 15 losing seasons over 16 years from 1981 to 1996.

  4. Arriving in 1997, Joe Tiller turned things around immediately. With Drew Brees behind center, Purdue reached its first Rose Bowl in 34 years in 2000.

  5. With nine wins from 2013 to 2016, the Boilers were back to pre-Tiller lows when Brohm arrived. He made immediate improvements but is struggling to make even more.

PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers were two scores from 5-2 and two from 1-6 last season. They aren’t far from West contention, but only if the defense rediscovers consistency.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 31st

Average projected wins: 7.3 (4.7 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: BGSU (98% win probability), Miami (Ohio) (96%), Illinois (86%), at Northwestern (76%)

  • Relative toss-ups: at Colorado (62%), Maryland (59%), at Purdue (55%), Nebraska (55%), at Indiana (42%), Wisconsin (36%)

  • Likely losses: at Iowa (31%), Ohio State (30%)

Half of Minnesota’s games are projected within six points, eight within nine. Which tossups they win and lose will have a massive impact on the West race.

What we learned about Minnesota in 2020

There’s probably life after Rashod Bateman. After ranking seventh in offensive SP+ in 2019, the Gophers lost offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca, leading receiver Tyler Johnson and leading rusher Rodney Smith, and monstrous linemen Curtis Dunlap Jr. (injury) and Daniel Faalele (opt-out). They still scored 34-plus points three times, still avoided negative plays and, when required, still enjoyed some passing downs magic from quarterback Tanner Morgan (though he did suffer a couple of sketchy performances).

Their level fell a bit in the last two games after star receiver Bateman opted out — they averaged 5.8 yards per play with him and 5.3 without. But the Gophers return every starter except Bateman in 2021, and Dunlap and Faalele are both scheduled to return. Morgan has big-play receivers Chris Autman-Bell and Daniel Jackson out wide and will share the backfield with Mohamed Ibrahim, who rushed for 100+ yards in every game last year (and 200+ twice). This should be a top-30 offense.

What we didn’t learn about Minnesota in 2020

What the heck happened on D? Over Fleck’s first three seasons, Minnesota averaged a 32.0 ranking in defensive SP+. But after peaking at 26th in 2019, the Gophers plunged to 64th last fall. (The fall might have been even worse if they’d played a full season.) They ranked a ghastly 121st in success rate allowed and 98th in explosive play rate allowed. And this was despite ranking third in tackle success rate and getting top-notch performances from end Boye Mafe (4.5 sacks) and corner Coney Durr (33.7 QBR allowed)!

The tackles couldn’t hold up, the linebacking corps was nonexistent from either a playmaking or play-stopping perspective, and while the Gophers dominated third-and-longs, they couldn’t force any. Fleck brought in two tackle transfers — Nyles Pinckney (Clemson) and Val Martin (NC State) — and linebacker Braelen Oliver returns from injury and immediately becomes Minnesota’s most proven blitzer. But this was quite a collapse. It’s hard to project a fast rebound.

Minnesota’s history in one chart

  1. A late-1930s dynasty, Minnesota scored its first national title in 19 years (and its last since) in 1960, thanks in part to final polls being taken before a Rose Bowl loss.

  2. The Gophers enjoyed three straight top-10 finishes from 1960 to 1962, driven by a pair of hall of fame (both pro and college) defenders in Bobby Bell and Carl Eller.

  3. Lou Holtz was head coach for only two years, but he inherited a Gophers team coming off of maybe its worst ever season and had them bowling by Year 2.

  4. He couldn’t keep raising the bar, but Glen Mason fielded some stout teams from 2002 to 2005, particularly a 10-win 2003 squad led by RBs Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney.

  5. Fleck’s 2019 squad was UM’s first to win 11+ games since 1904 and its first to finish in the AP top 10 since the 1962 squad of Bell and Eller.

In 2020, Nebraska looked good for a while against Ohio State, beat Penn State … and got blown out by Illinois. It’s been “two steps forward, two back” for Scott Frost’s entire tenure.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 30th

Average projected wins: 7.0 (4.9 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: Fordham (99%), Buffalo (86%), Northwestern (85%), at Illinois (79%), Purdue (67%)

  • Relative toss-ups: at Michigan State (65%), Michigan (53%), at Minnesota (45%), Iowa (43%)

  • Likely losses: Ohio State (31%), at Wisconsin (26%), at Oklahoma (17%)

The Huskers are projected favorites in six of their first seven games … and one of their last five. Recommendation: Start quickly.

What we learned about Nebraska in 2020

There might be hope for the defense. NU jumped from 63rd to 38th in defensive SP+ thanks to the combination of disruptive run defense and strong red zone execution. There were still weaknesses — a nonexistent pass rush and the resulting inefficient pass defense — but it was a start.

Nine starters return, but linebacker Will Honas, NU’s best pass-rusher, is potentially lost for the season (knee). End Ben Stille and LB JoJo Domann are solid run defenders, while safeties Marquel Dismuke and Deontai Williams and corner Cam Taylor-Britt give the secondary potential. But until the pass rush improves, cracking the top 30 will be difficult.

What we didn’t learn about Nebraska in 2020

Will it ever click for Adrian Martinez? In two years under Frost at UCF, McKenzie Milton went from solid true freshman starter to one of the best players in the country. That set an unfair bar for Martinez, who became the day-one starter when Frost arrived in Lincoln. He hasn’t cleared it.

Martinez has battled injuries and inconsistency — in 20 games in 2019-20, his passer rating was above 140 10 times and below 105 seven times — and with the departure of leading rusher Dedrick Mills and leading receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, he’ll again deal with uncertainty in the skill corps. There’s efficiency potential with receivers Zavier Betts and Levi Falck, tight ends Austin Allen and Travis Vokolek and USC RB transfer Markese Stepp, but big plays were minimal last year. A few chunk plays and easy scores would work wonders for a team that has lost six of its past eight one-score games.

Will it ever click for Frost? After what he had done at UCF, Frost, the former NU quarterback, coming home to turn the program around felt like one of the most no-brainer hires of the past decade. Three years in, he’s got a 0.375 win percentage. As long as you’re still employed, you can still turn things around, but Frost probably shouldn’t wait much longer.

Nebraska’s history in one chart

  1. When Bob Devaney arrived in 1962, NU had enjoyed one winning season in its past nine years. In 11 seasons he would win two national titles with seven top-10 finishes.

  2. After going 12-8 in 1967-68, Devaney promoted Tom Osborne to offensive coordinator to spruce things up. They went 42-4-2 with two national titles over the next four years.

  3. Osborne was the obvious choice when Devaney retired in 1972. He would engineer 14 top-10 finishes in his first 21 seasons but constantly fell short of a national title …

  4. … until 1994. His Huskers broke through to win the title that year, won a second with one of the best teams ever in 1995, then won a third in 1997, his final season.

  5. Osborne successor Frank Solich enjoyed three top-10 finishes in six years, but he was fired. NU has zero top-10s since and hasn’t finished ranked at all since 2012.

After an 0-2 start, Iowa won its last six games and jumped to 10th in SP+, its best ranking since 2008. Should we be talking more about the Hawkeyes as legit Big Ten contenders?

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 16th

Average projected wins: 8.3 (6.0 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: Kent State (98%), Colorado State (96%), Illinois (92%), at Northwestern (86%), Purdue (78%), Minnesota (69%), Indiana (67%)

  • Relative toss-ups: at Maryland (61%), at Nebraska (57%), Penn State (54%), at Wisconsin (38%), at Iowa State (37%)

  • Likely losses: none

The Hawkeyes have three starters to replace on each line, but if the trenches hold up (and they usually do for Iowa), there are no likely losses on the regular-season slate.

What we learned about Iowa in 2020

Ferentzball can still win. Strong, low-blitz pass rush? Frustrating zone defense? Run-first, efficiency-based offense? The Hawkeyes proved that Ferentz’s conservative approach can still reap dividends, winning five games by 14+ and stomping both Penn State and Wisconsin. The run game was as efficient as it’s been in a while, and RB Tyler Goodson and two potential all-conference linemen (Tyler Linderbaum, Cody Ince) give them a chance of replicating that.

Losing both offensive and defensive tackles, plus ace pass-rusher Chauncey Golston, hurts. Strong end Zach VanValkenburg returns, but anything less than domination in the trenches will require more of the other units. That could be an issue.

They need more from the QB position. If everything else goes right, the Hawkeyes don’t ever need much from their signal-caller. But they got the bare minimum from Spencer Petras last season.

The Hawkeyes ranked 92nd in passing-downs success rate, and Petras ranked 64th in Total QBR, and that was with WRs Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Brandon Smith. They’re both gone, and while junior Tyrone Tracy Jr. has shown potential, this is a green receiving corps. If Iowa falls short in the West race, it will almost certainly be because the passing game couldn’t produce when it needed to.

What we didn’t learn about Iowa in 2020

Could this be the best Ferentz defense yet? The Hawkeyes have ranked sixth or better in defensive SP+ five times in 13 seasons, but they hadn’t ranked as high as second until last season. If sturdy tackles emerge — and junior Noah Shannon‘s the only DT who had 40+ snaps — they might have a shot at first. Linebacker Jack Campbell appears ready for a star turn, and the entire secondary, including dynamic safeties Jack Koerner and Dane Belton, returns intact.

Coordinator Phil Parker became the state of Iowa’s first million-dollar assistant coach this summer, and he might have the personnel to back up the salary.

Iowa’s history in one chart

  1. The golden era: From 1953 to 1960 under Forest Evashevski, Iowa enjoyed five top-10 finishes and two Rose Bowl wins. They Hawkeyes reached No. 1 late in 1960 but lost to Minnesota.

  2. Things quickly fell apart when Evashevski quit to become AD in 1961. The Hawkeyes didn’t enjoy a single winning season between 1962 and 1981.

  3. Hayden Fry turned things around, peaking in 1985. QB Chuck Long nearly won the Heisman, and the Hawkeyes spent more than a month at No. 1 before finishing 10-2.

  4. The end of the long Fry era finished poorly (3-8 in 1998), but Iowa nailed his successor hire. Ferentz has produced five top-10 finishes and six years with 10+ wins.

  5. Per SP+, Ferentz’s most successful team (2015’s 12-2 squad) was also one of his worst, ranking 42nd but riding a string of close wins to within an eyelash of the CFP.

New quarterback … injuries … more COVID problems than most … we might have learned less about Wisconsin than any other FBS team in 2020. At least, the Badgers hope so.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 9th

Average projected wins: 9.4 (6.8 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: Eastern Michigan (98% win probability), at Rutgers (94%), Northwestern (93%), Army (93%), at Illinois (90%), at Purdue (74%), Michigan (71%), vs. Notre Dame (67%)

  • Relative toss-ups: at Minnesota (64%), Iowa (62%), Penn State (60%)

  • Likely losses: none

What we learned about Wisconsin in 2020

Jim Leonhard is fantastic. When head coach Paul Chryst promoted the former Wisconsin safety to defensive coordinator in 2017, Leonhard had just one official year of coaching to his name. He’s proved the move astute. The Badgers have ranked in the defensive SP+ top 15 in three of four seasons and climbed to fourth last year.

The Badgers stuff the run on early downs and dominate the pass on passing downs. They blitz well — especially with inside linebackers Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal — and corners Faion Hicks and Caesar Williams can handle the man coverage Leonhard asks of them. Leonhard does have to replace two of four primary linemen, but he could start as many as 10 juniors and seniors overall.

Graham Mertz could be, too (with help). Talk about all-or-nothing: In four wins, the Badgers averaged 39 points per game, and Mertz, a blue-chip redshirt freshman, produced a raw QBR of 79.6. He completed 20 of 21 passes in his debut against Illinois.

In three losses, however, the Badgers averaged 6.7 points. Mertz’s QBR: 24.6. He got less help than expected from a rotating RB corps, and leading receivers Danny Davis III and Kendric Pryor barely saw the field. Wisconsin was entirely overmatched against good Iowa, Northwestern and Indiana defenses.

Davis and Pryor return, along with sophomore Chimere Dike and tight end Jake Ferguson. Mertz should have fewer bad moments, but the run game has a lot to prove.

What we didn’t learn about Wisconsin in 2020

The run game isn’t infallible. A dominant ground game is in the Wisconsin DNA, but the Badgers ranked just 72nd in rushing success rate, with almost no big-play potential. The line was constantly shuffled, and blue-chip RB Jalen Berger was inconsistent. He hit the corner well but didn’t do much damage between the tackles; he’ll get a push from Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi and a batch of freshmen, but the job of Wisconsin Workhorse Back is his if he’s ready.

And if he’s ready, Wisconsin probably is, too.

Wisconsin’s history in one chart

  1. In 1962, Milt Bruhn’s Badgers led the nation with 32.2 PPG, finished No. 2 in the AP poll and took No. 1 USC down to the wire in a 42-37 Rose Bowl epic.

  2. The Badgers wouldn’t get another Rose Bowl shot for decades. From 1964 to 1977, they averaged 3.4 wins per year with one winning season.

  3. After a decent start to the 1980s, things fell apart again. UW won nine games in four years and asked Notre Dame defensive coordinator Barry Alvarez to turn things around.

  4. Alvarez’s Badgers from 1993 to 1999: six bowls, three top-10 finishes, three Rose Bowl wins and a Heisman Trophy, via Ron Dayne in 1999. What a turnaround.

  5. Since Alvarez’s retirement in 2005, UW has enjoyed five more top-10 finishes and attended three more Rose Bowls. One of the steadiest powers in the sport.

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Areas of concern: What could trip up each of our top 25 teams

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Areas of concern: What could trip up each of our top 25 teams

While optimism runs high at most every college football program this time of year, even the rosiest picture has some lurking shadows.

That is true even for the 25 teams in our post-spring Power Rankings. No matter how deep the rosters seem, everyone has some question marks or potential weak spots.

Our college football reporters take a look at the biggest areas of concern for each of the top teams, the potential Achilles’ heel that could keep them from reaching their goals for the season.

Area of concern: Wide receiver

The Nittany Lions addressed the wide receiver spot in the portal with Syracuse’s Trebor Pena and others, but until they actually elevate their production, questions will linger. Penn State has had only one wide receiver rank among the top 10 in the Big Ten in receiving in the past three seasons (Tyler Warren played tight end). Both Warren and top receiver Harrison Wallace III are gone, and Penn State needs its portal haul — Pena, a second-team All-ACC wideout in 2024, as well as Devonte Ross (Troy) and Kyron Hudson (USC) — to give quarterback Drew Allar enough capable targets this fall. Although Allar’s big-game struggles are also concerning, he hasn’t had a great group of receivers at his disposal during his Penn State career. — Adam Rittenberg


Area of concern: Running back

The position group that has been discussed more than any other since the spring at Clemson is running back — the only position on offense that loses the bulk of its production with Phil Mafah off to the NFL. But the Tigers have plenty of depth at running back, and that should help ease any concerns as they move into fall camp. Particularly because running back traditionally has been an area where Clemson has excelled, even when other groups on offense took a step back. (Clemson has had a 1,000-yard rusher 11 of the past 16 years, and that does not include 2023, when Mafah and Will Shipley split the carries nearly evenly and combined for more than 1,700 yards.) It is easy to see true freshman Gideon Davidson as a breakout player, considering the success Clemson has had with true freshman backs since Dabo Swinney arrived. Clemson also has receiver Adam Randall taking reps at running back to help round out the depth in a room that also features Keith Adams Jr. and David Eziomume. Jay Haynes continues to rehab a knee injury. — Andrea Adelson


Area of concern: Offensive line

The Longhorns lost four starters on the O-line to the NFL draft and are breaking in a new quarterback, although Arch Manning made two starts last season, as well as several key receivers with the losses of Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond and tight end Gunnar Helm. They lost tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., the 2025 No. 9 draft pick, but Trevor Goosby got some key playing time last year at the position when Banks was injured. The Longhorns also lost 56-game starter Jake Majors at center and face Ohio State in Week 1, posing a quick learning curve for an almost completely new offensive line group. — Dave Wilson


Area of concern: Pass rush

The Bulldogs lost six veteran contributors on their front seven on defense, none more important than edge rushers Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams and Chaz Chambliss. Walker and Williams were first-round picks in the NFL draft, and Chambliss was an unheralded contributor over four seasons. They combined for 18 sacks and 28.5 tackles for loss in 2024. Making matters worse, Damon Wilson, a projected replacement on the edge, transferred to Missouri. Georgia feels good about Gabe Harris Jr., and it added Army transfer Elo Modozie, who had 6.5 sacks for the Black Knights last season. — Mark Schlabach


Area of concern: Quarterback

Quarterback Will Howard was everything the Buckeyes could have hoped for last year in his lone season at Ohio State. He was spectacular during the College Football Playoff, posting a QBR of 97.2 over four games during the Buckeyes’ march to the national championship. With Howard now in the NFL, the Buckeyes will be turning to either former five-star freshman Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz this season, pending who wins the job during camp. Throwing to all-world wideout Jeremiah Smith will bolster whomever the starting quarterback winds up being. But even with Smith and All-American safety Caleb Downs anchoring each side of the ball, it’s difficult envisioning the Buckeyes truly contending again unless Ohio State gets good-to-great quarterback play like it did last season. — Jake Trotter


Area of concern: Offensive line

I don’t know that LSU has to necessarily worry about the offensive line because of moves made this offseason, but it has to be something to keep an eye on just because of the magnitude of the losses. The Tigers had one of the best tackle duos in all of college football last season in Will Campbell and Emery Jones, who were first- and third-round NFL draft picks. They lost four starters across the line in total. DJ Chester and Tyree Adams are back in different spots, while Brian Kelly added Braelin Moore from Virginia Tech. — Harry Lyles Jr.


Area of concern: Tight end

Since 2011, the Fighting Irish have had a whopping 10 tight ends selected in the NFL draft, including last season’s leading receiver, Mitchell Evans, who had 43 catches for 421 yards with three touchdowns. While the Irish feel they’ve upgraded their wide receiver group with the additions of Virginia transfer Malachi Fields and Wisconsin’s Will Pauling, tight end remains a bit of a question mark heading into preseason camp. Senior Eli Raridon has the size (6-foot-7) and hands to excel at the position, but he was plagued by injuries during his first couple of college seasons, after tearing an ACL as a freshman. He had 11 catches for 90 yards with two touchdowns in 2024. The status of another tight end, Cooper Flanagan, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the Sugar Bowl, is in question. — Mark Schlabach


Area of concern: Defensive line

It’s hard to say whether this is an area of concern just yet, but there are question marks with Oregon’s defensive line as the Ducks lost both Derrick Harmon and Jordan Burch from last year (as well as Jamaree Caldwell). Defensive end is a strength with Matayo Uiagalelei holding down the edge, but the rest of the line will require some newcomers to step up, such as USC transfer Bear Alexander and rising lineman Aydin Breland, who could be in line for a breakout season. A’mauri Washington, one of the few returning players, will likely be a fixture of the new-look line as well. — Paolo Uggetti


Area of concern: Pass rush

Alabama finished 13th in the SEC last season in quarterback sacks, and while sacks aren’t the end-all when it comes to rushing the passer, the Crimson Tide need to be more consistent in getting to the opposing quarterback. There’s not a pure edge pass rusher in the mold of Will Anderson Jr. or Dallas Turner on this roster, meaning Alabama will need to get more pressure from its interior linemen and perhaps a breakout season from redshirt sophomore outside linebacker Qua Russaw. — Chris Low


Area of concern: Quarterback

When the season ended, quarterback figured to be an obvious strength for BYU considering Jake Retzlaff was set to return. But with him expected to transfer as of late June, the Cougars are left without an established starter. McCae Hillstead showed flashes at Utah State in 2023, Treyson Bourguet started eight games in two years for Western Michigan and true freshman Bear Bachmeier was a big-time recruit who enrolled briefly at Stanford earlier this offseason before leaving for Provo. The expectation is that all three will have a chance to earn the starting job in fall camp, without a clear-cut front-runner. — Kyle Bonagura


Area of concern: Offensive explosiveness

The Illini had a good and efficient offense in 2024, but they weren’t particularly explosive, tying for 64th nationally in plays of 10 yards or longer and tying for 66th in plays of 20 yards or longer. Although quarterback Luke Altmyer and a veteran offensive line return, Illinois needs to replace its top two receivers in Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, who are off to the NFL, and leading rusher Josh McCray, who transferred to Georgia. Offensive coordinator Barry Lunney thinks Collin Dixon, who averaged 14.7 yards per catch in limited work last fall, and incoming freshman Brayden Trimble can spark the offense. “Overall, we’re going to have a little bit more vertical speed in what we’re doing to stretch the defense than what we did,” Lunney told me. “That’s no slight on Zakhari or Pat at all. Those were just kind of bigger, stronger guys.” — Rittenberg


Area of concern: Pass rush

ASU’s late-season surge, from a decent team to one capable of coming within one play of the CFP semifinals, took place primarily thanks to players who are returning in 2025. Obviously losing star running back Cam Skattebo hurts, but the Sun Devils have some of the best overall returning production numbers in the country. We don’t know that they have a pass rush, though. It was an issue last season — ASU ranked just 110th in sacks per dropback — and while both of their sacks leaders (Clayton Smith and Elijah O’Neal) return, that duo combined for just 8.5 sacks between them. Kenny Dillingham evidently thought he had the answers in house, as he didn’t add a single edge rusher in the transfer portal, but while the secondary is sound and experienced, giving QBs too much time to find receivers can bring down even the most seasoned defense. — Bill Connelly


Area of concern: Defensive front

What was perhaps South Carolina’s biggest strength last season could be its biggest concern going into 2025. Gone up front are stalwarts Kyle Kennard, Bam Martin-Scott, Demetrius Knight and TJ Sanders, among others. That left a lot of holes to fill, and the Gamecocks largely addressed them by hitting the portal hard. Rising star Dylan Stewart will be the flashiest player and Bryan Thomas is the lone established senior, with transfers Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy, Davonte Miles and Justin Okoronkwo filling a big void. But perhaps the biggest name to know is sophomore Fred “JayR” Johnson, a rangy linebacker with lauded leadership skills who South Carolina hopes will blossom into the centerpiece of the defense after playing a small role as a freshman in 2024. — David Hale


Area of concern: Wide receiver

With receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins both off to the NFL — having been drafted by the Houston Texans in back-to-back rounds — receiver is a good place to start. Noel and Higgins combined for nearly 2,400 receiving yards last season and that type of production will need to be replaced by more than just two players. But even with those holes to fill, the lack of a pass rush last season remains a glaring question mark. If the Cyclones can’t improve upon their conference-worst sack total, it’s hard to see how they can make a run at the Big 12 title, especially given the unknowns at receiver. — Bonagura


Area of concern: Defensive line

One of the most underappreciated keys to SMU’s playoff run last season was the veteran talent up front on defense. Elijah Roberts, Jared Harrison-Hunte and Jahfari Harvey all came from Miami and had multiple years as a starter under their belts in 2024. There won’t be nearly so much experience this year. Add in the departures of Ahmad Walker and Kobe Wilson at linebacker, and there’s a vacuum waiting to be filled in terms of leadership. SMU does return safety Isaiah Nwokobia, who was an All-ACC performer last season, and there’s buzz surrounding East Carolina transfer Zakye Barker at linebacker, but establishing some key voices — and performers — on the D-line remains a question. — Hale


Area of concern: Defense

Does the defensive makeover actually work? The Red Raiders’ D can’t get much worse than what it was in 2024, and that’s not hyperbole. Texas Tech finished 126th in total defense in 2024. The secondary was 132nd in passing yards per game. Shiel Wood takes over as defensive coordinator, and there have been tons of portal additions to this side of the ball. Players such as Stanford linebacker David Bailey and Georgia Tech end Romello Height stand out, along with five transfer defensive backs. There’s really only one way for this group to go, and it’s up. — Lyles Jr.


Area of concern: Defense

Despite the fact that talented defensive end Mikail Kamara is returning, the transfer-heavy unit that allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the Big Ten last season lost some key contributors. Gone to the NFL are CJ West and James Carpenter, and while Indiana did not hesitate to dip into the transfer portal to reload with players such as Hosea Wheeler (Western Kentucky), Stephen Daley (Kent State), Dominique Ratcliff (Texas State) and Kellan Wyatt (Maryland), one of the Hoosiers’ strongest position groups last year has a lot to prove and live up to in 2025. — Uggetti


Area of concern: Stopping big plays

K-State’s offense was delightfully explosive last season, but the defense often gave up as many big plays as the offense created. The Wildcats blitzed a lot and harassed QBs well, but they ranked 110th in Total QBR allowed and 107th in completions of 10 or more yards allowed. That’s a concern considering the defense lost both leading pass rusher Brendan Mott and four of last year’s five starters in the secondary. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman might have to fiddle with the risk-reward balance to get the most out of this defense and help the Wildcats contend in the ultracompetitive Big 12. — Connelly


Area of concern: Wide receiver

One of the reasons Florida is expected to improve in 2025 is because of the talent that quarterback DJ Lagway brings. But the Gators’ top receivers from last season, Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike, left for the NFL. Eugene Wilson III is back, but also coming off season-ending hip surgery. It will be up to Vernell Brown III, Dallas Wilson, Naeshaun Montgomery and J. Michael Sturdivant (UCLA transfer) to help establish themselves. — Lyles Jr.


Area of concern: Wide receiver

The Wolverines ranked 129th last season with just 1,678 passing yards. Quarterback play was part of the issue, as Michigan cycled through three quarterbacks (Davis Warren, Jack Tuttle and Alex Orji) in its first season after losing national champion JJ McCarthy. But Michigan’s receivers collectively didn’t make enough plays, as no wideout caught more than 27 passes or totaled more than 248 yards. The onus will be even greater on Michigan’s receivers with tight end Colston Loveland — the Wolverines’ only reliable target last year — now playing for the Chicago Bears. Instant impact from transfers Anthony Simpson (UMass) and Donaven McCulley (Indiana), combined with internal improvement from the likes of Fredrick Moore and Semaj Morgan, will be paramount if Michigan is going to threaten opposing defensive backfields in 2025. — Trotter


Area of concern: Linebacker

The Hurricanes did another fantastic job shoring up positions across the roster in the transfer portal, especially considering how much turnover they had from last season. But if there is one position that still has some questions, it is linebacker, mainly because depth may become an issue as the season wears on. Miami returns three key veterans in Wesley Bissainthe, Jaylin Alderman and Popo Aguirre, and signed NC State transfer Kamal Bonner and Rutgers transfer Mo Toure. Miami often looked slow and out of position at linebacker last season, but the new scheme from defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman should help. The player to keep an eye on here is Toure, whom Hetherman coached while he was at Rutgers. Toure is coming off a knee injury (his second torn ACL in three years), but his potential to fit into this defense, considering his past with Hetherman, is huge. — Adelson


Area of concern: Defensive end

For the past three years, Louisville was able to rely on a genuine star off the edge in Ashton Gillotte, who racked up 21.5 sacks from 2022-24. Gillotte is off to the NFL now, a third-round pick by the Chiefs. That leaves a major void at defensive end. Louisville has a couple of transfers — Wesley Bailey from Rutgers and Clev Lubin from Coastal Carolina — hoping to fill the void, but the strength of the D-line will certainly be on the interior, where the Cards have much more established depth. As Louisville works to remedy issues defending the pass, finding someone — or, ideally, a few guys — who can get after the QB will be one of the most critical jobs for the defense as it prepares for 2025. — Hale


Area of concern: Wide receiver

Just like last season, a big question for the Aggies’ potential is how their wide receiver room will shake out. The Aggies lost Noah Thomas, a bright spot in an otherwise spotty position for A&M and new offensive coordinator Collin Klein, to Georgia after Thomas caught 39 passes for 574 yards and eight touchdowns last year. No other player caught more than two TDs or eclipsed 400 yards on the season as the Aggies fought through a QB change from Conner Weigman to Marcel Reed. This year, the Aggies are looking toward NC State transfer KC Concepcion (71 catches, 839 yards, 10 TDs in 2023, 53-460-6 last year), Mississippi State transfer Mario Craver (17-368-3 as a freshman), as well as returners Ashton Bethel-Roman, 6-2, 220-pound freshman four-star recruit Jerome Myles and dynamic 2024 five-star recruit Terry Bussey, who played something of an all-purpose role last year. As this group goes, so will Reed and the offense. — Wilson


Area of concern: Quarterback

Austin Simmons seems like a talented individual — we’re talking about someone who is athletically gifted enough to play baseball for Ole Miss as well. But anytime you are replacing one of the better quarterbacks in your conference, in this case Jaxson Dart, who was a first-round NFL draft pick, there has to be some level of concern. But from what we’ve seen out of Simmons, there’s promise. His drive against Georgia last season, where he led a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to tie the game while Dart was injured, should give the Ole Miss faithful something to be excited about. — Lyles Jr.


Area of concern: Tight end

It’s been a struggle at tight end for the Sooners, and there’s again uncertainty around the position heading into the 2025 season. Granted, there was plenty of blame to go around for Oklahoma’s struggles on offense last season, but finding more consistency at tight end in both the receiving and blocking categories would be a big boost for an offense that has tons of new faces. There isn’t a definitive starter at tight end entering preseason camp. Transfers Will Huggins (Kansas and Pittsburg State) and Carson Kent (Kennesaw State) are expected to battle with converted linebacker Jaren Kanak for the job. — Low

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UCF’s Frost: Nebraska job ‘wasn’t a good move’

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UCF's Frost: Nebraska job 'wasn't a good move'

FRISCO, Texas — Scott Frost’s celebrated return as coach at UCF comes with the backdrop of a failed tenure at Nebraska, the alma mater he said he didn’t want to talk about at Big 12 football media days Tuesday. Even though he did.

Frost said, “I really want to keep it about UCF,” just a few hours after telling a reporter from The Athletic that he never wanted to take the Nebraska job in the first place coming off a 13-0 season in 2017 that sparked debate about whether the Knights should have had a chance to play for the national championship in the four-team playoff.

“I said I wouldn’t leave unless it was someplace you could win a national championship,” Frost told The Athletic. “I got tugged in a direction to try to help my alma mater and didn’t really want to do it. It wasn’t a good move. I’m lucky to get back to a place where I was a lot happier.”

When the same reporter asked Frost in a one-on-one interview what he learned from his time in Nebraska, the former Cornhuskers quarterback said, “Don’t take the wrong job.”

Frost’s tone was quite a bit different in two settings with reporters at the 12,000-seat indoor stadium that is also a practice field for the Dallas Cowboys.

“When you go through something that doesn’t work, just ready for another chance, and I’m ready for another chance,” Frost said. “This is about the Big 12. This is about UCF. Everybody has success in life and has failures in life, for all sorts of different reasons. I’m excited to get back in a place where my family and I get treated well.”

Frost inherited an 0-12 team at UCF and turned it into an undefeated American Athletic Conference champion in only two years. Nebraska fans were ecstatic when he made the move 20 years after leading the Cornhuskers to a perfect 1997 season and a split national title with Michigan in the final season before a championship game was established.

Three games into his fifth season in Lincoln, Frost was fired with a 16-31 record. Almost three full college seasons later, it’s back to Orlando — after one year working under Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay.

“I really enjoyed two years off,” Frost said. “I got to spend a whole year with Ashley and the [three] kids, and I’ll never get that time back. I played more catch with my son and touch football in the yard with him and going to little league and seeing my daughter do gymnastics. And then some time out in L.A. really, really helped reset me, too.”

Images endure of Frost celebrating a 34-27 Peach Bowl victory over Auburn that clinched UCF’s perfect 2017 season almost a month after he had been named the coach at Nebraska.

Fast-forward almost eight years, and Frost was delaying a scheduled roundtable with reporters to take a few pictures with the players he brought with him to media days.

“Yeah, being around the guys,” Frost said of that moment. “I’m sorry, I’d rather be around the guys than you guys.”

And there are times when Frost brings up the old days with his new guys.

“We talk to them about all those things,” Frost said. “What happened in 2017 is at times relevant, but this is a new team. So we only point those things out, not to live in the past, but just to help them with any lessons that we want to learn.”

Frost wasn’t sharing the lessons he learned in Nebraska with everyone.

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Big 12’s Yormark ‘doubling down’ on 5+11 model

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Big 12's Yormark 'doubling down' on 5+11 model

FRISCO, Texas — Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark is “doubling down” on the so-called 5+11 future College Football Playoff format, while acknowledging that it might benefit his league more in the future than currently.

The Big 12 and ACC have pushed the model, which would award automatic bids to the five highest-rated conference champions, plus 11 at-large bids determined by the CFP selection committee. The 5+11 model gained some support at the SEC’s spring meetings, while the Big Ten has focused more on a model that would award four automatic bids to Big Ten teams and to SEC teams, plus two apiece to the Big 12 and the ACC.

Yormark, his fellow commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua must determine the CFP format for 2026 and beyond by Dec. 1.

The Big 12 had only one representative, champion Arizona State, in the inaugural 12-team CFP last year. Arizona State lost to Texas in two overtimes in a CFP quarterfinal matchup at the Peach Bowl.

“Five-11 is fair,” Yormark said Tuesday in his opening address at Big 12 media days at The Star. “We want to earn it on the field. It might not be the best solution today for the Big 12 … but long-term, knowing the progress we’re making, the investments we’re making, it’s the right format for us. And I’m doubling down today on 5+11.”

Yormark added that he expects ACC commissioner Jim Phillips to take the same position when that league holds its media days this month in Charlotte, North Carolina. The ACC sent two teams, champion Clemson and runner-up SMU, to the 12-team playoff last year. Yormark touted the Big 12 as the “deepest football conference in America” and said he believes the league will have multiple CFP entries this season.

“I have a lot of faith in the selection process,” Yormark said. “They are doing a full audit of the selection process to figure out how they can modernize and contemporize and how they use data and how certain metrics can be more heavily weighted.”

Yormark told ESPN that he’s “relatively confident” that the CFP will go to 16 teams in 2026 and laid out the next steps to making it happen.

“The first step is we got to figure out, with the selection process, we’re kind of doing a deep dive,” he said. “Where can we improve it? Where can we modernize it? Are we using the right metrics? Are things weighted appropriately or not? So we’re going through that conversation, and I think on the heels of that, we’ll move into the format because I think for the room people need to get confident, more confident, in that selection process. And assuming they do, which I’m confident they will, we’ll be able to then address the format that makes sense.”

In March, the CFP named a Big 12 athletic director, Baylor’s Mack Rhoades, as the chair of its selection committee. Yormark said that in addition to schedule strength, “new metrics” will be added to the selection process to ensure fairness to all conferences.

The Big 12 will have the Week 0 stage as Iowa State and Kansas State renew their rivalry in Dublin. Other key nonleague Big 12 matchups include Baylor-Auburn, Baylor-SMU and Iowa State-Iowa.

“I’m confident we’ll get to the right place,” Yormark said. “And ultimately, I’m confident we’ll go to 5+11.”

ESPN’s Pete Thamel contributed to this report.

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