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Wisconsin plays Wisconsin football. Iowa is Iowa. Northwestern does Northwestern things. Minnesota is increasingly Minnesota. The Big Ten West might have more proven entities than any other division in college football. But for such a reliable division, the West has been pretty difficult to forecast of late.

In 2018, defending champion Wisconsin was voted a runaway favorite to repeat, with only Iowa likely to offer major resistance. Northwestern won the division by three games.

In 2019, turnover prompted a shakeup, and with Scott Frost seemingly ready for a UCF-like second-year leap, Nebraska was voted a slight favorite over Iowa. Wisconsin and Minnesota tied for the title.

In 2020, Wisconsin and Minnesota were picked to once again lead the way. Instead, Northwestern beat out Iowa by a half-game.

We’ll see who ends up the media favorite soon enough. My guess is that, with most of last year’s starters returning — and with both Iowa and especially Northwestern losing quite a few key contributors — Wisconsin will again get the nod. SP+ projects the Badgers and Iowa as the most likely teams to make a run.

Congrats in advance, then, to Purdue for winning the division. Let’s preview the Big Ten West!

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 130 FBS teams. The previews will include 2020 breakdowns, 2021 previews and a brief history of each team in one handy chart. The series has thus far covered the Conference USA East and West, the MAC East and West, the MWC Mountain and West, the Sun Belt West and East, the top and bottom half of the AAC, the seven Independents, the ACC Atlantic and Coastal, the Pac-12 North and South, and the top and bottom half of the Big 12.

Jump to a team: Illinois | Northwestern | Purdue | Minnesota | Nebraska | Iowa | Wisconsin

In 2016, Lovie Smith’s first year in charge, Illinois ranked 94th in SP+. In 2020, his last, the Fighting Illini ranked 89th. They were starting over then, and they’re starting over now.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 83rd

Average projected wins: 3.9 (2.2 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins*: Charlotte (81% win probability)

  • Relative toss-ups: Rutgers (65%), UTSA (60%), Northwestern (53%)

  • Likely losses: at Virginia (28%), Maryland (24%), at Purdue (21%), Nebraska (21%), at Minnesota (14%), Wisconsin (10%), at Iowa (8%), at Penn State (7%)

* Likely wins are games in which SP+ projects the scoring margin to be greater than seven points, or above about 65% win probability. Likely losses are the opposite, and relative toss-ups are all the games in between.

Bret Bielema inherits a roster with few guaranteed matchup advantages, but the Illini do face five teams projected outside the SP+ top 50. There are some win opportunities.

What we learned about Illinois in 2020

Smith was never the guy. Unlike other NFL-turned-college coaches, Smith never built recruiting inroads; he never built much momentum either. UI never ranked higher than 70th in offensive SP+ and only once ranked higher than 77th on defense. A former Arkansas and Wisconsin head coach, Bielema also comes from the pros, but he has far more (and more recent) college experience, at least.

The running backs and linebackers are good. Bielema likes his lines meaty and dominant, and while he inherits plenty of beef — five primary OL returnees weigh 310-plus, and defensive tackles Roderick Perry II and Calvin Avery are a combined 650 — the dominance part has lacked.

The guys who line up behind said lines, however, are solid. RBs Chase Brown and Mike Epstein each averaged over five yards per carry despite efficiency issues, and Jake Hansen leads a pretty deep stable of aggressive linebackers.

Beyond that, there are more questions than answers. Brandon Peters is the likely starter at QB, but he has been massively inconsistent, and he’s without leading WR Josh Imatorbhebhe. (Tight end Daniel Barker‘s solid.) The secondary is more experienced but no more stable than the passing personnel.

What we didn’t learn about Illinois in 2020

Is Illinois a “zig when everyone’s zagging” school? In a division with quite a few purveyors of Big Burly Manball, Illinois hired someone who has historically been exactly that. Granted, new offensive coordinator Tony Petersen has some passing success on his résumé, and Ryan Walters is an aggressive, modern defensive coordinator (though he likes to play more man coverage than his charges might be able to offer in 2021). But can Bielema figure out a way to stand out?

Illinois’ history in one chart

  1. Led by a linebacker named Butkus, Illinois went 8-1-1 and won the Rose Bowl in 1963. The Illini have been to Pasadena only twice in the 57 seasons since, losing both.

  2. In 1989, Purdue transfer Jeff George threw for 2,738 yards and led John Mackovic’s Illini to 10 wins and their first bowl victory since 1963.

  3. Led by Simeon Rice and Kevin Hardy, the Illini ranked in the defensive SP+ top 10 in both 1994 and ’95 … and went a combined 12-10-1 because of a paltry offense.

  4. Under Ron Turner, Illinois went from 0-11 in 1997, to 10-2 (with a Big Ten title) in 2001, to 1-11 in 2003. Very few schools have the upside and inconsistency to pull that off.

  5. Ron Zook was fired after leading Illinois to three winning seasons from 2007 to 2011. Winning seasons since: zero.

Much of FBS returns record levels of production; Northwestern does not. If Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats challenge for another West title, it’ll be his most impressive coaching performance yet.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 75th

Average projected wins: 4.9 (2.7 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: Indiana State (94% win probability), Rutgers (68%)

  • Relative toss-ups: Ohio (65%), at Duke (63%), at Illinois (48%), Michigan State (43%)

  • Likely losses: Purdue (33%), Minnesota (24%), at Nebraska (16%), Iowa (15%), at Michigan (14%), at Wisconsin (7%)

In the past three years, the Wildcats have won two West titles with a 3-9 campaign in between. This could be another setback season.

What we learned about Northwestern in 2020

Mike Hankwitz was phenomenal. After an incredible 13-year run as defensive coordinator, Hankwitz retired at his peak, with Northwestern ranking third in defensive SP+. The pass defense was almost perfect: The Wildcats ranked fifth in passing success rate allowed and gave up almost no big plays. They almost never blitzed — they just forced QBs into constant mistakes.

Former NFL defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil has huge shoes to fill. He has to replace two awesome cornerbacks in Greg Newsome II and Cameron Ruiz (backups A.J. Hampton, Rod Heard and Cameron Mitchell all thrived when they got the opportunity) and two dynamic run defenders in end Earnest Brown IV and linebacker Blake Gallagher. The floor’s pretty high for a Fitzgerald defense, but a drop-off is coming.

What we didn’t learn about Northwestern in 2020

Can the offense remain ranked in the double digits? Northwestern has mastered the art of winning despite its offense, but when the Wildcats fell to 123rd in offensive SP+ in 2019, it was too much to overcome.

In Mike Bajakian’s first year as offensive coordinator, they improved to 93rd. His love of tempo and physicality was an identity and an issue — Northwestern still couldn’t run the ball — but QB Peyton Ramsey frequently bailed the Wildcats out on passing downs. Ramsey and his top four targets are now gone. Sophomore backs Cam Porter and Evan Hull and Bowling Green transfer Andrew Clair have shown potential, but run game consistency is an outright must. It also might be too much to ask for.

The remodeled passing game will likely be crafted around South Carolina transfer and former blue-chip quarterback Ryan Hilinski and receivers JJ Jefferson, Bryce Kirtz, Malik Washington and Kansas transfer Stephon Robinson Jr. That foursome caught a combined 13 balls last year.

Northwestern’s history in one chart

  1. Ara Parseghian had NU ranked in the AP top 10 for parts of five seasons and briefly had the Wildcats at No. 1 in 1962. He left for Notre Dame in 1964, and things collapsed quickly.

  2. NU averaged 1.5 wins from 1976 to 1990. What was worse in retrospect: the 34-game losing streak or Dennis Green winning Big Ten Coach of the Year for going 3-8?

  3. After winning eight games in his first three seasons in charge, Gary Barnett led a 10-2 campaign and took the Purple to Pasadena in 1995. They went 9-3 the next year, too.

  4. In 2000, Randy Walker and coordinator Kevin Wilson fielded one of the most influential early versions of the spread offense. Their 54-51 win over Michigan was a classic.

  5. After Walker’s tragic passing in 2006, former star linebacker Fitzgerald was named head coach at age 31. Fifteen years later, NU continues to slowly trend upward.

Since famously destroying Ohio State in 2018, Jeff Brohm’s Boilermakers are just 8-16. They are constantly competitive but are no closer to turning a corner than they were three years ago.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 40th

Average projected wins: 5.8 (3.9 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: at UConn (95% win probability), Illinois (79%), at Northwestern (67%), Oregon State (66%)

  • Relative toss-ups: Michigan State (65%), Minnesota (45%), Indiana (43%)

  • Likely losses: at Nebraska (33%), at Notre Dame (31%), at Iowa (22%), at Wisconsin (18%), at Ohio State (14%)

Look at that road slate! The Boilers play five projected top-30 teams away from West Lafayette, which could keep the win total tamped down pretty far even if they play at a top-40 level.

What we learned about Purdue in 2020

The nibbles are still effective(ish). One of Brohm’s calling cards is the use of an extensive array of quick passes as a complement to the customary run game. More than half of Purdue’s 43.5 passes per game in 2020 were within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage. Combined with a decent run game, the Boilers had a lot of ways to gain 5 yards on you.

That’s important! But gaining 20+ yards is helpful, too, and Purdue didn’t do much of that, even before star receiver Rondale Moore opted out to prepare for the NFL draft.

With some combination of quarterbacks Aidan O’Connell and Jack Plummer, wideouts David Bell and Milton Wright and backs Zander Horvath and King Doerue, the efficiency game will again be strong. But unless a young, new weapon — Marshall WR transfer Broc Thompson? Redshirt freshman Collin Sullivan? — provides a boost in the big-play department, long drives will be Purdue’s only means of scoring.

What we didn’t learn about Purdue in 2020

Will the defense ever bounce back? Since leaping to 32nd in defensive SP+ in Brohm’s first year, Purdue’s average ranking is 76.7. The Boilermakers tackled well and prevented big plays, but they also ranked 99th in passing success rate allowed. The pass rush was nonexistent — 126th in sack rate — and despite solid output from end DaMarcus Mitchell, they had no hope of creating disruption after star end George Karlaftis was lost to injury/COVID.

Three co-coordinators, led by former Charlotte head coach Brad Lambert, will attempt to add a little more havoc to the equation this year. The return of Karlaftis and seven other starters could produce improvement, but how much?

Purdue’s history in one chart

  1. Purdue’s high point as a program came under Jack Mollenkopf from 1966 to 1968: The Boilers enjoyed three straight AP top-10 finishes and won the Rose Bowl in 1966.

  2. The key to Purdue’s 1960s success: strong QB play and Leroy Keyes, who combined for 1,989 rushing and 1,186 receiving yards and scored 36 times in 1967-68.

  3. Despite solid individual talent — Jim Everett, Rod Woodson, Chris Dishman — Purdue suffered 15 losing seasons over 16 years from 1981 to 1996.

  4. Arriving in 1997, Joe Tiller turned things around immediately. With Drew Brees behind center, Purdue reached its first Rose Bowl in 34 years in 2000.

  5. With nine wins from 2013 to 2016, the Boilers were back to pre-Tiller lows when Brohm arrived. He made immediate improvements but is struggling to make even more.

PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers were two scores from 5-2 and two from 1-6 last season. They aren’t far from West contention, but only if the defense rediscovers consistency.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 31st

Average projected wins: 7.3 (4.7 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: BGSU (98% win probability), Miami (Ohio) (96%), Illinois (86%), at Northwestern (76%)

  • Relative toss-ups: at Colorado (62%), Maryland (59%), at Purdue (55%), Nebraska (55%), at Indiana (42%), Wisconsin (36%)

  • Likely losses: at Iowa (31%), Ohio State (30%)

Half of Minnesota’s games are projected within six points, eight within nine. Which tossups they win and lose will have a massive impact on the West race.

What we learned about Minnesota in 2020

There’s probably life after Rashod Bateman. After ranking seventh in offensive SP+ in 2019, the Gophers lost offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca, leading receiver Tyler Johnson and leading rusher Rodney Smith, and monstrous linemen Curtis Dunlap Jr. (injury) and Daniel Faalele (opt-out). They still scored 34-plus points three times, still avoided negative plays and, when required, still enjoyed some passing downs magic from quarterback Tanner Morgan (though he did suffer a couple of sketchy performances).

Their level fell a bit in the last two games after star receiver Bateman opted out — they averaged 5.8 yards per play with him and 5.3 without. But the Gophers return every starter except Bateman in 2021, and Dunlap and Faalele are both scheduled to return. Morgan has big-play receivers Chris Autman-Bell and Daniel Jackson out wide and will share the backfield with Mohamed Ibrahim, who rushed for 100+ yards in every game last year (and 200+ twice). This should be a top-30 offense.

What we didn’t learn about Minnesota in 2020

What the heck happened on D? Over Fleck’s first three seasons, Minnesota averaged a 32.0 ranking in defensive SP+. But after peaking at 26th in 2019, the Gophers plunged to 64th last fall. (The fall might have been even worse if they’d played a full season.) They ranked a ghastly 121st in success rate allowed and 98th in explosive play rate allowed. And this was despite ranking third in tackle success rate and getting top-notch performances from end Boye Mafe (4.5 sacks) and corner Coney Durr (33.7 QBR allowed)!

The tackles couldn’t hold up, the linebacking corps was nonexistent from either a playmaking or play-stopping perspective, and while the Gophers dominated third-and-longs, they couldn’t force any. Fleck brought in two tackle transfers — Nyles Pinckney (Clemson) and Val Martin (NC State) — and linebacker Braelen Oliver returns from injury and immediately becomes Minnesota’s most proven blitzer. But this was quite a collapse. It’s hard to project a fast rebound.

Minnesota’s history in one chart

  1. A late-1930s dynasty, Minnesota scored its first national title in 19 years (and its last since) in 1960, thanks in part to final polls being taken before a Rose Bowl loss.

  2. The Gophers enjoyed three straight top-10 finishes from 1960 to 1962, driven by a pair of hall of fame (both pro and college) defenders in Bobby Bell and Carl Eller.

  3. Lou Holtz was head coach for only two years, but he inherited a Gophers team coming off of maybe its worst ever season and had them bowling by Year 2.

  4. He couldn’t keep raising the bar, but Glen Mason fielded some stout teams from 2002 to 2005, particularly a 10-win 2003 squad led by RBs Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney.

  5. Fleck’s 2019 squad was UM’s first to win 11+ games since 1904 and its first to finish in the AP top 10 since the 1962 squad of Bell and Eller.

In 2020, Nebraska looked good for a while against Ohio State, beat Penn State … and got blown out by Illinois. It’s been “two steps forward, two back” for Scott Frost’s entire tenure.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 30th

Average projected wins: 7.0 (4.9 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: Fordham (99%), Buffalo (86%), Northwestern (85%), at Illinois (79%), Purdue (67%)

  • Relative toss-ups: at Michigan State (65%), Michigan (53%), at Minnesota (45%), Iowa (43%)

  • Likely losses: Ohio State (31%), at Wisconsin (26%), at Oklahoma (17%)

The Huskers are projected favorites in six of their first seven games … and one of their last five. Recommendation: Start quickly.

What we learned about Nebraska in 2020

There might be hope for the defense. NU jumped from 63rd to 38th in defensive SP+ thanks to the combination of disruptive run defense and strong red zone execution. There were still weaknesses — a nonexistent pass rush and the resulting inefficient pass defense — but it was a start.

Nine starters return, but linebacker Will Honas, NU’s best pass-rusher, is potentially lost for the season (knee). End Ben Stille and LB JoJo Domann are solid run defenders, while safeties Marquel Dismuke and Deontai Williams and corner Cam Taylor-Britt give the secondary potential. But until the pass rush improves, cracking the top 30 will be difficult.

What we didn’t learn about Nebraska in 2020

Will it ever click for Adrian Martinez? In two years under Frost at UCF, McKenzie Milton went from solid true freshman starter to one of the best players in the country. That set an unfair bar for Martinez, who became the day-one starter when Frost arrived in Lincoln. He hasn’t cleared it.

Martinez has battled injuries and inconsistency — in 20 games in 2019-20, his passer rating was above 140 10 times and below 105 seven times — and with the departure of leading rusher Dedrick Mills and leading receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, he’ll again deal with uncertainty in the skill corps. There’s efficiency potential with receivers Zavier Betts and Levi Falck, tight ends Austin Allen and Travis Vokolek and USC RB transfer Markese Stepp, but big plays were minimal last year. A few chunk plays and easy scores would work wonders for a team that has lost six of its past eight one-score games.

Will it ever click for Frost? After what he had done at UCF, Frost, the former NU quarterback, coming home to turn the program around felt like one of the most no-brainer hires of the past decade. Three years in, he’s got a 0.375 win percentage. As long as you’re still employed, you can still turn things around, but Frost probably shouldn’t wait much longer.

Nebraska’s history in one chart

  1. When Bob Devaney arrived in 1962, NU had enjoyed one winning season in its past nine years. In 11 seasons he would win two national titles with seven top-10 finishes.

  2. After going 12-8 in 1967-68, Devaney promoted Tom Osborne to offensive coordinator to spruce things up. They went 42-4-2 with two national titles over the next four years.

  3. Osborne was the obvious choice when Devaney retired in 1972. He would engineer 14 top-10 finishes in his first 21 seasons but constantly fell short of a national title …

  4. … until 1994. His Huskers broke through to win the title that year, won a second with one of the best teams ever in 1995, then won a third in 1997, his final season.

  5. Osborne successor Frank Solich enjoyed three top-10 finishes in six years, but he was fired. NU has zero top-10s since and hasn’t finished ranked at all since 2012.

After an 0-2 start, Iowa won its last six games and jumped to 10th in SP+, its best ranking since 2008. Should we be talking more about the Hawkeyes as legit Big Ten contenders?

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 16th

Average projected wins: 8.3 (6.0 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: Kent State (98%), Colorado State (96%), Illinois (92%), at Northwestern (86%), Purdue (78%), Minnesota (69%), Indiana (67%)

  • Relative toss-ups: at Maryland (61%), at Nebraska (57%), Penn State (54%), at Wisconsin (38%), at Iowa State (37%)

  • Likely losses: none

The Hawkeyes have three starters to replace on each line, but if the trenches hold up (and they usually do for Iowa), there are no likely losses on the regular-season slate.

What we learned about Iowa in 2020

Ferentzball can still win. Strong, low-blitz pass rush? Frustrating zone defense? Run-first, efficiency-based offense? The Hawkeyes proved that Ferentz’s conservative approach can still reap dividends, winning five games by 14+ and stomping both Penn State and Wisconsin. The run game was as efficient as it’s been in a while, and RB Tyler Goodson and two potential all-conference linemen (Tyler Linderbaum, Cody Ince) give them a chance of replicating that.

Losing both offensive and defensive tackles, plus ace pass-rusher Chauncey Golston, hurts. Strong end Zach VanValkenburg returns, but anything less than domination in the trenches will require more of the other units. That could be an issue.

They need more from the QB position. If everything else goes right, the Hawkeyes don’t ever need much from their signal-caller. But they got the bare minimum from Spencer Petras last season.

The Hawkeyes ranked 92nd in passing-downs success rate, and Petras ranked 64th in Total QBR, and that was with WRs Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Brandon Smith. They’re both gone, and while junior Tyrone Tracy Jr. has shown potential, this is a green receiving corps. If Iowa falls short in the West race, it will almost certainly be because the passing game couldn’t produce when it needed to.

What we didn’t learn about Iowa in 2020

Could this be the best Ferentz defense yet? The Hawkeyes have ranked sixth or better in defensive SP+ five times in 13 seasons, but they hadn’t ranked as high as second until last season. If sturdy tackles emerge — and junior Noah Shannon‘s the only DT who had 40+ snaps — they might have a shot at first. Linebacker Jack Campbell appears ready for a star turn, and the entire secondary, including dynamic safeties Jack Koerner and Dane Belton, returns intact.

Coordinator Phil Parker became the state of Iowa’s first million-dollar assistant coach this summer, and he might have the personnel to back up the salary.

Iowa’s history in one chart

  1. The golden era: From 1953 to 1960 under Forest Evashevski, Iowa enjoyed five top-10 finishes and two Rose Bowl wins. They Hawkeyes reached No. 1 late in 1960 but lost to Minnesota.

  2. Things quickly fell apart when Evashevski quit to become AD in 1961. The Hawkeyes didn’t enjoy a single winning season between 1962 and 1981.

  3. Hayden Fry turned things around, peaking in 1985. QB Chuck Long nearly won the Heisman, and the Hawkeyes spent more than a month at No. 1 before finishing 10-2.

  4. The end of the long Fry era finished poorly (3-8 in 1998), but Iowa nailed his successor hire. Ferentz has produced five top-10 finishes and six years with 10+ wins.

  5. Per SP+, Ferentz’s most successful team (2015’s 12-2 squad) was also one of his worst, ranking 42nd but riding a string of close wins to within an eyelash of the CFP.

New quarterback … injuries … more COVID problems than most … we might have learned less about Wisconsin than any other FBS team in 2020. At least, the Badgers hope so.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 9th

Average projected wins: 9.4 (6.8 in the Big Ten)

  • Likely wins: Eastern Michigan (98% win probability), at Rutgers (94%), Northwestern (93%), Army (93%), at Illinois (90%), at Purdue (74%), Michigan (71%), vs. Notre Dame (67%)

  • Relative toss-ups: at Minnesota (64%), Iowa (62%), Penn State (60%)

  • Likely losses: none

What we learned about Wisconsin in 2020

Jim Leonhard is fantastic. When head coach Paul Chryst promoted the former Wisconsin safety to defensive coordinator in 2017, Leonhard had just one official year of coaching to his name. He’s proved the move astute. The Badgers have ranked in the defensive SP+ top 15 in three of four seasons and climbed to fourth last year.

The Badgers stuff the run on early downs and dominate the pass on passing downs. They blitz well — especially with inside linebackers Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal — and corners Faion Hicks and Caesar Williams can handle the man coverage Leonhard asks of them. Leonhard does have to replace two of four primary linemen, but he could start as many as 10 juniors and seniors overall.

Graham Mertz could be, too (with help). Talk about all-or-nothing: In four wins, the Badgers averaged 39 points per game, and Mertz, a blue-chip redshirt freshman, produced a raw QBR of 79.6. He completed 20 of 21 passes in his debut against Illinois.

In three losses, however, the Badgers averaged 6.7 points. Mertz’s QBR: 24.6. He got less help than expected from a rotating RB corps, and leading receivers Danny Davis III and Kendric Pryor barely saw the field. Wisconsin was entirely overmatched against good Iowa, Northwestern and Indiana defenses.

Davis and Pryor return, along with sophomore Chimere Dike and tight end Jake Ferguson. Mertz should have fewer bad moments, but the run game has a lot to prove.

What we didn’t learn about Wisconsin in 2020

The run game isn’t infallible. A dominant ground game is in the Wisconsin DNA, but the Badgers ranked just 72nd in rushing success rate, with almost no big-play potential. The line was constantly shuffled, and blue-chip RB Jalen Berger was inconsistent. He hit the corner well but didn’t do much damage between the tackles; he’ll get a push from Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi and a batch of freshmen, but the job of Wisconsin Workhorse Back is his if he’s ready.

And if he’s ready, Wisconsin probably is, too.

Wisconsin’s history in one chart

  1. In 1962, Milt Bruhn’s Badgers led the nation with 32.2 PPG, finished No. 2 in the AP poll and took No. 1 USC down to the wire in a 42-37 Rose Bowl epic.

  2. The Badgers wouldn’t get another Rose Bowl shot for decades. From 1964 to 1977, they averaged 3.4 wins per year with one winning season.

  3. After a decent start to the 1980s, things fell apart again. UW won nine games in four years and asked Notre Dame defensive coordinator Barry Alvarez to turn things around.

  4. Alvarez’s Badgers from 1993 to 1999: six bowls, three top-10 finishes, three Rose Bowl wins and a Heisman Trophy, via Ron Dayne in 1999. What a turnaround.

  5. Since Alvarez’s retirement in 2005, UW has enjoyed five more top-10 finishes and attended three more Rose Bowls. One of the steadiest powers in the sport.

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‘In what world does that make sense?’ MLB players weigh in on top 100

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'In what world does that make sense?' MLB players weigh in on top 100

Most of the MLB players given a preview of our Top 100 player ranking were polite, and some were even deferential, suggesting they didn’t feel qualified to assess the relative strengths of the players across the broad spectrum of Major League Baseball.

It’s a fair concern — for the players and for us as writers and rankers. We are not perfect, which is why we presented our list to current players for feedback over the past few weeks. We work daily to evaluate the work of players, and in this case, we want to know what they think — to give unvarnished opinions about how we ranked the best players in the sport.

And once niceties were set aside — and with some players feeling more comfortable speaking on the condition of anonymity — it became clear that many of them believe that ESPN’s ranking is constructed too heavily on hype, rather than actual achievement.

“You have [Roki] Sasaki” — the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ rookie pitcher who’s ranked No. 60 — “over J.T. Realmuto?” asked one player, who called attention to Realmuto’s nearly decade-long standing as one of the best catchers. “In what world does that make sense?”

Weighing possibility over production seemed to be the biggest concern across the board when we spoke to 15 MLB players about our ranking.

“I’m not going to call out anybody by name, but there are guys on this list who have had a good two months over players who had good years,” Pittsburgh Pirates veteran outfielder Tommy Pham said. “You’re basing [a ranking] on two months? I can’t get on board with that.”

Longtime reliever Adam Ottavino was also surprised by this fact, pointing to Francisco Lindor and Elly De La Cruz being ranked back-to-back at No. 16 and 17, respectively.

“I feel like there’s a huge separation in actual production at this moment between Lindor and De La Cruz,” he said. “I know [De La Cruz’s] ceiling is insane and he’s so fun to watch, but he’s just not anywhere close to Lindor yet, in my mind.”

Tangible major league production was a sticking point for players, and so was position.

Paul Skenes has amazing stuff,” said another player about the fifth-ranked young Pirates pitcher. “But he’s ahead of Francisco Lindor? Like, a shortstop who plays every day and just finished second in the NL MVP race?”

Andrew McCutchen, playing in his 17th year in the big leagues with Pittsburgh this season, believes that you cannot fairly rank position players and pitchers on the same list because the demands of their work are so completely different.

Shohei [Ohtani] hits and he pitches, and you have him at No. 1,” McCutchen said. “But you guys have Paul Skenes at [No. 5], but Paul Skenes doesn’t hit. That skews the list for me. … To me, that’s like ranking offensive and defensive [NFL] players on the same list. It doesn’t work.”

Ottavino, now back with the New York Yankees, found it interesting that you don’t see as many pitchers mixed in near the top of the list — outside of Ohtani, who is expected to return to a two-way role at some point this season. There are just three starting pitchers in the top 20.

“Position players are out there day in and day out,” Ottavino said. “But you see Chris Sale at No. 32, and you see him behind Brent Rooker, a DH. Rooker is a great player, but I just feel like a true ace has so much impact.”

Veteran infielder Manny Machado felt similarly, making the case for Tarik Skubal (No. 10) and Zack Wheeler (No. 9) to be higher on the list, saying, “Zack is the No. 1 pitcher in the league right now, by far.”

Ottavino also noted how players’ rankings on our list do not match with how positions are valued in the free agent market.

“First baseman, first baseman, first baseman,” he said, noting players near the top of the list. “And yet the market doesn’t value first baseman.”

Max Fried, No. 27 on our list, just signed a deal with the Yankees for $218 million this winter. Longtime New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, ranked just a few spots behind Fried, got a third of that after struggling to come to terms on a deal all offseason.

When looking at position players and where they should rank, Ottavino favored those who bear a wider range of skills, saying, “I would have Gunnar [Henderson] higher than some of these others because of overall impact.”

Maybe no major league player has as much impact as Aaron Judge, who ranked fourth on our list. Multiple players were surprised that the star slugger wasn’t No. 1 or No. 2.

“I like Bobby Witt [Jr.]‘s skill set, and he did some great things last year,” McCutchen said of the young Kansas City Royals star who secured the second overall ranking. “But what Judge did for a couple of years running, it’s hard for me to put [Witt] above him.”

“You’ve got Judge as the fourth-best player?” Pham exclaimed. “Am I tripping here?”

Hearing his teammate, McCutchen added, “The people who put together these lists think this game is easy.”

Well, I responded, I did bat over .300 in junior varsity and pitched a scoreless inning with my slowball in Little League. (No, I didn’t actually say that to these two players who have almost three decades between them in the majors.)

“Look at Judge’s numbers,” Pham continued. “Judge can’t be that low. With all due respect, everybody above him on the list is a great player — Mookie [Betts], Bobby, Ohtani is a unicorn. But Judge had a Barry Bonds season last year.”

And Pham isn’t wrong — Judge’s adjusted OPS+ of 223 in 2024 is the highest ever for a right-handed hitter.

“See?” Pham said. “I can’t work with this.”

Machado agreed, saying that “It should be 1, 4, 2, 3.” Translated: Ohtani, Judge, Witt and then Betts.

“There is a lot of hype around Paul [Skenes],” the San Diego Padres third baseman continued, perusing the list. “But he is nasty. I’m glad we missed him last year.”

Seeing his former teammate Corey Seager at No. 21, Machado said, “I don’t know why Seager is so low. I love Seager.”

There were a number of big-name stars whose rankings players were surprised to see.

Atlanta Braves infielders Matt Olson and Austin Riley were looking at the list together outside the Braves clubhouse when they saw fellow teammate Ronald Acuña Jr. was No. 20. While Acuña is recovering from a second ACL tear that sidelined him for the majority of the 2024 season, he’s not far removed from a 2023 campaign that saw him hit 41 homers and steal 73 bases en route to the National League MVP Award.

“That’s a little tough,” Riley said of the ranking.

Los Angeles Angels star outfielder Mike Trout was someone who players we spoke to last year about our list thought was ranked far too low at No. 19. They were equally surprised by his ranking of 33rd this year.

“I said it last year, too, but Trout is too low,” Olson said. “And Sale is too low.”

Riley took issue with Teoscar Hernandez‘ ranking at No. 53, after a season in which he won the Home Run Derby and helped the Dodgers win the World Series. Perusing, Riley turned to Olson, who’s ranked No. 41, and said, “You’re too low.”

“I think once you get past No. 30, it’s a free-for-all,” he said.

Their teammate Marcell Ozuna, who carried Atlanta’s offense at times last season as it dealt with injuries, slotted in at No. 78 on our list, which didn’t make sense to Olson.

“If he’s going to be that low, you’re going to say it’s a discount for being a DH and not playing the field,” he said. “But if that’s the case, Yordan [Alvarez] can’t be at [No. 7].”

And yes, Juan Soto‘s placement one spot down at No. 8 caught the attention of a few players.

“Are you f—-ing kidding?” asked one.

Please tell us how you really feel.

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MLB Power Rankings: Who are the top teams one week into the season?

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MLB Power Rankings: Who are the top teams one week into the season?

We’re just one week into the 2025 MLB season — and what a ride it has been already.

Torpedo bats are taking baseball by storm. Both the Dodgers and Padres are undefeated, while another National League team with lofty expectations in the Braves are winless to start the season.

We’ve also seen both great individual performances — Aaron Judge‘s three-homer game over the weekend; Mookie Betts‘ walk-off three-run blast; MacKenzie Gore‘s 13-strikeout Opening Day performance — and not so great ones — Rafael Devershistoric strikeout streak — across the league.

Is your favorite team off to a dominant start — and more importantly, will it last? Or are you hoping the first week’s returns aren’t a glimpse of the future?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Alden Gonzalez and Buster Olney to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Preseason rankings

Record: 8-0
Previous ranking: 1

The Dodgers have played eight games this season. Either Freddie Freeman or Mookie Betts — or, in two instances, both — have been absent for six of them. And yet it hasn’t really mattered. The Dodgers’ offense has hummed right along.

Betts has found some surprising home run power since sitting out the Japan series because of a debilitating illness that prompted him to shed nearly 20 pounds; Tommy Edman has continued to be a crucial part of the lineup, no matter where he hits; and the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith and Michael Conforto have shown just how deep this offense can be, even when it is without one or two of its three best players. — Gonzalez


Record: 4-1
Previous ranking: 3

Cristopher Sanchez was one of the most talked about pitchers of spring training, as he added even more velocity to a sinker that already had more velocity in 2024 than in 2023. His first start backed up what everyone saw in the Grapefruit League as he gave up one run in 5⅓ innings with seven strikeouts in a no-decision against the Rockies. His sinker averaged 96.5 mph — up from 94.5 mph in 2024. The sinker isn’t going to induce a lot of whiffs, but if Sanchez can improve the batting average against it (.345 last season), he could have a big season in store. — Schoenfield


Record: 7-0
Previous ranking: 10

Jackson Merrill, the Padres’ 21-year-old budding superstar, signed a nine-year extension Wednesday morning that guarantees him at least $135 million. Later in the day, he crushed his second home run in a 5-2 win over the Guardians, pushing the Padres to a 7-0 start — the longest season-opening winning streak in franchise history. A continuation of this early surge will hinge largely on their superstars, a list that includes Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish. But Merrill is squarely in that group, too. — Gonzalez


Record: 3-2
Previous ranking: 7

To put Judge’s start into perspective: At the outset of 2024 — what turned out to be one of the greatest seasons ever for a right-handed hitter — it took Judge 19 games to reach 11 RBIs. This season, it took him three games, in what was the best start to any season in his career. Judge began 4-for-6 with three homers against left-handers, and with runners on base, he started 5-for-9 with a walk. A big question coming into this season was how much Judge would be affected by the departure of Juan Soto from the No. 2 spot, and in a very small sample, the initial answer is: not at all. — Olney


Record: 4-2
Previous ranking: 5

Last year, Eugenio Suarez slashed just .196/.279/.312 through the first three months. It wasn’t until July that he really got going. His slump coincided with that of Corbin Carroll. The D-backs’ offense languished until the pair got going. So if there’s one major sign of encouragement that can be gleaned from this first week, it’s that Suarez clearly isn’t waiting around this year. The D-backs’ third baseman has already homered five times and driven in 11 runs while putting up a 1.312 OPS through his first six games. And given the hot starts of the Dodgers, Padres and Giants in the NL West, Suarez’s hot start has been crucial. — Gonzalez


Record: 5-2
Previous ranking: 8

Jacob deGrom pitched only 10 innings against major league competition in spring training and gave up five runs and two home runs, so nobody knew quite what to expect in his 2025 debut, but he delivered five scoreless innings against the Red Sox, giving up two hits with five strikeouts. Though it wasn’t quite vintage deGrom, he averaged 96.7 mph with his four-seamer while relying more on his slider and changeup than he traditionally has (he threw 29 sliders and 11 changeups out of 73 pitches), but it worked. The Red Sox went 1-for-11 with six strikeouts against those two pitches. — Schoenfield


Record: 3-3
Previous ranking: 6

Baltimore is going to hit, especially once Gunnar Henderson returns to the lineup and joins a rejuvenated Adley Rutschman and the powerful Tyler O’Neill. The barometer all season for the Orioles could be the performance of their starting pitchers, and whether they can limit opponents and also assume enough innings to take pressure off what could be a good bullpen. In the first pass through the rotation this season, Baltimore’s starters combined for a 6.26 ERA, which ranks 28th in the majors. Zach Eflin had a good first outing though, giving up two runs over six innings. — Olney


Record: 3-3
Previous ranking: 4

It has been a rough start for the Mets’ offense, which scored only 17 runs in the first five games — 10 of those coming in one game against the Marlins. Juan Soto’s start has been fine, homering in a 3-1 victory over the Astros in the second game of the season. He’s also taking his walks, no surprise there. He did strike out to end the season opener, representing the go-ahead run with two runners on base in a 3-1 loss, whiffing on a nasty 3-2 slider from Josh Hader. Mets fans will be ready to give him a loud ovation for the home opener Friday. — Schoenfield


Record: 4-2
Previous ranking: 16

Rival managers in the AL East talked up the Rays in spring training, but as always with Tampa Bay, the team operates with a small margin for error, and this is why Shane Baz‘s first start of the season was such a big deal. At a time when the Rays are without Shane McClanahan because of a triceps injury, Baz — a former first-round pick — threw six scoreless innings against the Pirates, striking out 10 without issuing a walk. The first time through Tampa Bay’s rotation, every Rays starter threw at least five innings, with the starters giving up only four earned runs in 29 innings. — Olney


Record: 2-4
Previous ranking: 11

Spencer Arrighetti‘s first start might be a sign of great things to come. He gave up only one hit and one run in six innings in a win over the Mets. As a rookie last season, Arrighetti struggled in the first half (5.63 ERA, 1.60 WHIP), but the Astros stuck with him, and he came on strong with a 3.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his final 11 starts. His sweeper and curveball were big weapons as a rookie, so the key will be fastball command — and he had it against the Mets, who went 0-for-10 with three K’s against his four-seamer. — Schoenfield


Record: 0-7
Previous ranking: 2

Everyone knew a season-opening road trip to San Diego and Los Angeles was going to be a tough one, especially with no Spencer Strider and no Ronald Acuña Jr., but the Braves stumbled their way to seven losses in a row to begin the season. Their nine runs in the first six games is tied for the fourth-fewest runs scored through a team’s first six games in the wild-card era (since 1995). The .137 average was also fourth lowest in that span. Oh, and along the way, Jurickson Profar was suspended for 80 games for a PED violation. — Schoenfield


Record: 5-1
Previous ranking: 22

The Giants, under new direction with Buster Posey, blitzed through spring training with a 21-6 record and drew praise from scouts who noted how sharp they looked. That has carried over into games that matter. Coming off a sweep in Houston, the Giants are 5-1, somehow keeping pace with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. A few of their key guys haven’t fully clicked yet — though Heliot Ramos surely has — but collectively they have an OPS of .941 with runners in scoring position. And their relievers have combined for a 1.74 ERA. — Gonzalez


Record: 2-4
Previous ranking: 9

Devers’ struggles in his first full week as a designated hitter are front and center for the Red Sox, which is understandable, given Boston’s investment in a star who thought he was the franchise’s third baseman. But Devers’ play has overshadowed the slow starts of others on the team, including Alex Bregman, who didn’t score or drive in a run in his first five games with the Red Sox; Walker Buehler, who gave up four runs and seven hits over 4⅓ innings in his first start; and first baseman Triston Casas, who had one hit (and no extra-base hits) in the first week of the season. — Olney


Record: 5-4
Previous ranking: 16

Justin Steele has acted as a steadying presence in the Cubs’ rotation over the past three years, winning 25 games, posting a 3.10 ERA and accumulating 427 innings. But the early part of this season has been a struggle. Through three starts, Steele leads the majors in hits (18), earned runs (12) and homers allowed (five). But that’s not entirely fair. He began his season before almost everyone else, on March 18 in Japan. None of his three starts — against the Dodgers, D-backs and A’s — have been terrible. It’s just that none of them have been all that good, either. — Gonzalez


Record: 2-4
Previous ranking: 11

With the team inhabiting a league that has strong lineups like that of the Yankees, Rangers and Orioles, Kansas City’s front office worked in the offseason to improve its offense. The Royals added Jonathan India to be their leadoff hitter, and just before the start of the season, traded for right-handed-hitting Mark Canha to help balance what appeared to be a left-handed heavy lineup.

In the first week of the season, the results are mixed: India is getting on base, but Hunter Renfroe, MJ Melendez and others manning the outfield have started slowly. So far, the Royals’ outfielders have a wRC+ that ranks in the bottom half of the majors. In a related note: Jac Caglianone, who showed big power in spring training, is starting this season at Double-A. — Olney


Record: 3-4
Previous ranking: 12

The Mariners scored only 15 runs in starting the season 2-4 while hitting .166 and getting five or fewer hits in five of the games. Here’s how bad things have been: Of those 15 runs, only two came on a non-home run RBI hit. They had two sacrifice flies, an RBI groundout, a run on an error and nine runs via the home run. The Mariners play 13 of their first 16 games at home, so they better figure it out, but it already looks like 2024, when they just hit .214/.307/.358 at home (only the White Sox had a lower OPS at home). — Schoenfield


Record: 2-4
Previous ranking: 18

With Parker Meadows out indefinitely because of a nerve issue, Matt Vierling on the injured list because of a rotator cuff injury and Gleyber Torres out because of an oblique problem, scoring runs will be a challenge on many days for the Tigers. The emergence of Spencer Torkelson has been a big help early, after Torkelson worked extensively in the offseason on his hitting mechanics. Torkelson had seven hits, including a home run, in his first 18 at-bats, plus five walks. This is a team with an opportunity for standouts to emerge in the everyday lineup, from Manuel Margot to Zach McKinstry. — Olney


Record: 2-4
Previous ranking: 20

.

Elly De La Cruz was a popular MVP pick at the start of the season, and it’s already clear why. Through his first six games, we’ve seen him turn in an impressive sliding catch in foul territory, produce 11 batted balls hit harder than 95 mph, steal two bases and launch four homers — including two Monday night, while debuting his torpedo bat.

“Elly is really good at baseball,” new Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer said afterward. He sure is. And he’s just starting to show it. — Gonzalez


Record: 4-2
Previous ranking: 25

Nolan Arenado spent all offseason thinking he was probably going to be traded. Then he wasn’t. Then he showed up to Busch Stadium on Opening Day wearing a Cardinals uniform, homered in the eighth inning and came out to a curtain call. Since then, Arenado has looked a lot like the guy who generated MVP votes in 2022, not the one who struggled in the two seasons thereafter, slashing .391/.500/.609 while turning in some solid defensive plays. At some point, he’ll be elsewhere — unless the Cardinals surprise us all and keep on winning. — Gonzalez


Record: 5-2
Previous ranking: 20

The question of whether the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will agree to a long-term deal has dominated Toronto’s spring, but shortstop Bo Bichette is in a similar situation as Guerrero: Bichette is eligible for free agency at season’s end, and has a ton riding on his 2025 production. So far, so good. Bichette came out of the gate with a league-high nine hits. If Bichette plays well in the first half of the season, he’ll have value for the Jays no matter the direction of the team — if Toronto decides to make trades in July and reload for the future, there would be a market for Bichette (hello, Atlanta?), and if it wants to retain homegrown anchors, it could take a run to sign him to a long-term deal. — Olney


Record: 2-4
Previous ranking: 19

Cleveland did this offseason what it has had to do so often — proactively manage its payroll. This is part of the reason why the Guardians shed Andres Gimenez and Myles Straw in separate deals with the Blue Jays, and why they moved Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks. The trade of Naylor left rival evaluators wondering who, if anyone, would be able to make up for the loss of the first baseman’s production. Early on, DH Kyle Manzardo — acquired from Tampa Bay two seasons ago — is getting a chance to be that guy. He has done some damage, with four extra-base hits, three walks and three strikeouts to start the season. — Olney


Record: 4-2
Previous ranking: 27

One of the more interesting Opening Day roster decisions for any team was the Angels promoting reliever Ryan Johnson even though he never pitched in the minor leagues after getting drafted in the second round last year out of Dallas Baptist. Johnson’s debut was a disaster, as he gave up five runs and two home runs in the season opener, but in his next two outings he was pressed into service in extra innings and picked up a save and a win. Johnson is a 6-foot-6 right-hander with a funky delivery who dominated as a starter at Dallas Baptist (2.21 ERA, 151 K’s in 106 innings). He touched 100 mph in college but has averaged 94.2 mph on his sinker with the Angels, using a cutter that he has thrown 55% of the time as his primary pitch. — Schoenfield


Record: 2-5
Previous ranking: 23

The initial returns are Sutter Health Park might be a big test for A’s pitchers. After holding the Mariners to eight runs in splitting a four-game series in Seattle, the A’s gave up 25 runs in their first two games in their new home park. To be fair, the wind was blowing out in both of the games. But the game-time temperatures were also just 52 and 55 degrees — much cooler than it will be during the summer.

“I think it’s still too early to tell,” Brent Rooker said. “There have been guys who have hit some balls good, and it’s been windy. We’re going to need several more games before we can really tell how it’s playing. There’s been a lot of offense. Where that credit lies, I’m not really sure.” — Schoenfield


Record: 2-4
Previous ranking: 15

On Tuesday night, Chad Patrick, Jared Koenig, Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps and Trevor Megill took the mound at American Family Field in Milwaukee and combined to shut out the Royals. It was a welcomed sight. For the previous four games, a Brewers pitching staff that had been severely compromised by injury, with three starting pitchers added to the injured list last month alone, was suffering from a case of whiplash. The pitchers gave up a whopping 45 runs in 33 innings, including 20 in one game against the torpedo-bat-swinging Yankees. Opposing batters compiled 17 home runs against the Brewers. — Gonzalez


Record: 2-4
Previous ranking: 17

The constant refrain around the Twins in recent years has been that the team has potential if it can consistently field Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, a trio of players who’ve had difficulty staying healthy. Lewis again got hurt late in spring training, pulling a hamstring, and while Correa and Buxton have been on the field, both had a rough first week. The pair combined to go 6-for-42 with three extra-base hits, three RBIs and nine strikeouts — though went 4-for-8 with a home run and a double in Wednesday’s win. Not surprisingly, the Twins are slow out of the starting gate, with two wins in their first six games. — Olney


Record: 4-3
Previous ranking: 29

The cardiac Marlins are back. Remember 2023, when they went 33-14 in one-run games, 7-3 in extra-inning games and had nine walk-off wins on their way to a surprising wild-card berth? Well, the Marlins had three walk-off wins in their opening series against Pittsburgh, rallying from a 4-2 deficit in the opener, winning 5-4 in 12 innings and then 3-2. Some shoddy Pirates defense certainly helped, but Kyle Stowers and Dane Myers delivered the walk-off hits with the other winning run coming on a wild pitch. For a team many predicted to lose 100 games, it at least has been a fun start. — Schoenfield


Record: 1-5
Previous ranking: 26

The Nationals received two strong performances on their first trip through the rotation. Gore fanned 13 Phillies in a brilliant Opening Day start, giving up only one hit and no runs in six innings. He became just the ninth pitcher with at least 13 strikeouts in a team’s first game (Randy Johnson did it twice, both times with 14). But it was not an Opening Day record for a Washington pitcher: Camilo Pascual of the Senators fanned a record 15 in 1960. Mitchell Parker then tossed 6⅓ scoreless innings to beat the Phillies. He’s coming off a rookie season in which he went 7-10 with a 4.29 ERA. — Schoenfield


Record: 2-5
Previous ranking: 24

Paul Skenes was profiled alongside his famous girlfriend, Livvy Dunne, in GQ on Wednesday morning, then he went about dominating the Rays, allowing three baserunners and an unearned run in seven innings to bring his ERA to 1.46. The Pirates absorbed the unfortunate news last month that fellow budding ace Jared Jones is nursing a UCL sprain, and though at this point it doesn’t seem as if surgery will be required, Jones will be reassessed Friday. Eventually, Skenes, Jones and Bubba Chandler will form a devastating rotation trio. For now, though, the Pirates will settle for employing the “it” pitcher in baseball. — Gonzalez


Record: 2-4
Previous ranking: 30

On the way to making ignominious history, the 2024 White Sox didn’t pick up their second win until the 11th game of the season. This year, they split their first four games, an early sign the White Sox are bound to be better. Andrew Benintendi, starting his 10th season on the roster, is among the most experienced White Sox players, and he’s off to a good start, with a couple of homers and six hits (.353 average) in his first five games. You’d assume that if anyone called the White Sox looking for outfield help, Chicago would be open to moving Benintendi. But he’s owed about $50 million over this season and the two that follow. — Olney


Record: 1-4
Previous ranking: 28

The Rockies’ propensity for strange is already showing itself. Case in point: Their starting pitchers have combined for a 1.61 ERA through their first five games, and yet they’ve won only once. So while German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland and Ryan Feltner have combined to given up only five runs in 28 innings, Colorado’s bullpen has fashioned an ERA over 10.00. And its offense has combined for only a .184 batting average. — Gonzalez

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NHL playoff watch: Who will emerge from the Eastern wild-card chaos?

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NHL playoff watch: Who will emerge from the Eastern wild-card chaos?

The final day of the regular season is exactly two weeks away, but the race for the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot remains open for five contenders.

Two of those teams are in action Thursday night. The Montreal Canadiens host the Boston Bruins (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+), and the Columbus Blue Jackets welcome the Colorado Avalanche (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+).

As play begins Thursday, the Canadiens hold the second wild card with 79 points and 25 regulation wins through 74 games; the New York Rangers are tied in standings points (and ahead in RW, with 32), but have played more games. The Blue Jackets are two behind in points, and one behind in regulation wins. The idle Detroit Red Wings (75 points, 26 RW) and New York Islanders (74 points, 25 RW) round out the quintet.

The Stathletes projection model likes the Canadiens’ chances to make the playoffs the most, at 51.7%, followed by the Blue Jackets (25.5%), Rangers (19.0%), Islanders (3.1%) and Red Wings (2.3%). How will this all shake out? Thursday’s pair of games featuring these teams will provide our next set of clues.

With the regular season ending April 17, we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Florida Panthers
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers


Thursday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7:30 p.m.
Pittsburgh Penguins at St. Louis Blues, 8 p.m.
Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Utah Hockey Club, 9 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames, 9:30 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)


Wednesday’s scoreboard

New York Rangers 5, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Washington Capitals 1
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Florida Panthers 2
Colorado Avalanche 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Seattle Kraken 5, Vancouver Canucks 0


Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 105.0
Next game: vs. CBJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 103.1
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 7
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: @ OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 93.1
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 87.5
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 51.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: vs. CAR (Friday)
Playoff chances: 2.3%
Tragic number: 13

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 77.6
Next game: vs. TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 8

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 75.4
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 5


Metro Division

Points: 105
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 114.8
Next game: vs. CHI (Friday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 106.4
Next game: @ DET (Friday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 6
Points pace: 93.9
Next game: vs. NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 86.4
Next game: @ NJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 19%
Tragic number: 15

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 86.5
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 25.5%
Tragic number: 17

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: vs. MIN (Friday)
Playoff chances: 3.1%
Tragic number: 12

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 77.6
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 7

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 76.6
Next game: @ MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 5


Central Division

Points: 106
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 115.9
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 113.0
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 6
Points pace: 103.6
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 6
Points pace: 96.0
Next game: @ NYI (Friday)
Playoff chances: 93.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 6
Points pace: 96.0
Next game: vs. PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 96.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 87.5
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.7%
Tragic number: 6

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 67.8
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 56.9
Next game: @ WSH (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E


Pacific Division

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 108.6
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 103.1
Next game: @ UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 100.8
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 90.9
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 6.4%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 88.6
Next game: vs. ANA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Tragic number: 7

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: @ CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: 2

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 75.5
Next game: @ SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 55.4
Next game: vs. EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Note: An “x” means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.


Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 32

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 26

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