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Only a small chunk of governments’ recovery spending in response to the Covid-19 pandemic has been allocated to clean energy measures, according to the International Energy Agency, with the Paris-based organization forecasting that carbon dioxide emissions will hit record levels in 2023.

Published on Tuesday, the IEA’s analysis notes that, as of the second quarter of this year, the world’s governments had set aside roughly $380 billion for “energy-related sustainable recovery measures.” This represents approximately 2% of recovery spending, it said. 

In a statement issued alongside its analysis, the IEA laid out a stark picture of just how much work needed to be done in order for climate related targets to be met.

“The sums of money, both public and private, being mobilised worldwide by recovery plans fall well short of what is needed to reach international climate goals,” it said. 

These shortfalls were “particularly pronounced in emerging and developing economies, many of which face particular financing challenges,” it added. 

Looking ahead, the Paris-based organization estimated that, under current spending plans, the planet’s carbon dioxide emissions would be on course to hit record levels in 2023 and continue to grow in the ensuing years. There was, its analysis claimed, “no clear peak in sight.”

Commenting on the findings, Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said: “Since the Covid-19 crisis erupted, many governments may have talked about the importance of building back better for a cleaner future, but many of them are yet to put their money where their mouth is.”

“Despite increased climate ambitions, the amount of economic recovery funds being spent on clean energy is just a small sliver of the total,” he added.

The IEA’s analysis and projections are based on its Sustainable Recovery Tracker, which was launched on Tuesday and “monitors government spending allocated to sustainable recoveries.”

The tracker takes this information and then uses it to estimate “how much this spending boosts overall clean energy investment and to what degree this affects the trajectory of global CO2 emissions.”

For his part, Birol said governments needed to “increase spending and policy action rapidly to meet the commitments they made in Paris in 2015 — including the vital provision of financing by advanced economies to the developing world.

“But they must then go even further,” he added, “by leading clean energy investment and deployment to much greater heights beyond the recovery period in order to shift the world onto a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050, which is narrow but still achievable — if we act now.”

Birol’s reference to the Paris Agreement is notable but unsurprising. The shadow of the accord, which aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels,” looms large over discussions about net-zero goals.

Cutting human-made carbon dioxide emissions to net-zero by 2050 is seen as crucial when it comes to meeting the 1.5 degrees Celsius target.

The new findings from the IEA come after it said the planet’s demand for electricity was set for a strong rebound this year and next after dropping by approximately 1% in 2020.

Released last week, its Electricity Market Report forecasts that global electricity demand will jump by nearly 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, as economies around the world look to recover from the effects of the pandemic.

The report notes that although electricity generation from renewables “continues to grow strongly” it can’t keep up with increasing demand.

Renewables were, the intergovernmental organization noted, “expected to be able to serve only around half of the projected growth in global demand in 2021 and 2022.”

At the other end of the spectrum, electricity generation based on fossil fuels was “set to cover 45% of additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022.”

Indeed, the reality on the ground shows just how big a challenge achieving climate-related goals will be in the years ahead.

Energy companies are still discovering new oil fields, for example, while in countries such as the U.S., fossil fuels continue to play a significant role in electricity production.

At the global level, the IEA’s research published last week expects coal-fired electricity generation to rise “by almost 5% in 2021 and a further 3% in 2022, after having declined by 4.6% in 2020.”

“As a result, coal-fired electricity generation is set to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2021 and reach an all-time high in 2022,” it adds.

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Cummins acquires hybrid heavy mining equipment experts First Mode

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Cummins acquires hybrid heavy mining equipment experts First Mode

Cummins has its eye on hybrid powertrains to help decarbonize the transport, construction, and mining spaces the operates in. To that end, the company has acquired the hybrid equipment experts First Mode, and plans to make the first commercially available retrofit hybrid system for mining equipment a reality not just soon – but now.

The Cummins brand is almost synonymous with diesel in the US, but they’re making big moves in the ZEV space, too, with their Accelera brand and, now, with their purchase of First Mode.

The acquisition includes the rights to all of First Mode’s tech in the mining and rail space, where the company has developed a full IP portfolio of “energy agnostic” (my words) electric drive powertrains that can draw power from internal combustion engines, hydrogen fuel cells, or batteries. And, because the First Mode Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) retrofit is designed as a modular platform, it allows equipment fleets to either back out of the electric drive conversion or take them a step further, going to fully battery electric operation with same (relative) ease.

That sort of flexibility will help Cummins meet customers where they’re at – whether they’re OEMs, or fleet managers at multibillion-dollar mining operations.

“This acquisition is an important step forward in our goal to lead our Power Systems customers through the energy transition,” explains Jenny Bush, President of Power Systems at Cummins. “With First Mode’s hybrid retrofit technology, we are accelerating our ability to provide decarbonization solutions that meet miners’ need to drive down operating costs today.”

We’ve seen this before

Liebherr and Fortescue repower R 9400 excavator to electric configuration
Massive excavator converted to BEV by Liebherr; via Fortescue.

If the notion of converting heavy equipment from diesel to electric sounds familiar, that means you’ve been paying attention. The heavy mining equipment experts at Liebherr recently converted a pair of their massive R 9400 excavators from diesel to battery electric power for use at a Fortescue mine.

That project was successful enough to move millions of tons of Earth in just a few months – leading to a $4 billion order from the global mining leader for even more electric equipment.

“The modular design of Liebherr equipment makes it possible to repower existing diesel excavators to new zero emission configurations, such as electric powertrains,” explains Oliver Weiss, Executive Vice President of R&D, Engineering, and Manufacturing for Liebherr Mining. “This means that the diesel equipment customers buy today is also future-proofed for many years to come. The fact that we can ease the transition from traditional to decarbonized mining fleets for our customers is one of the key strategies of the Liebherr Zero Emission Mining Program.”

For their part, Cummins’ executives seem just as excited by the promise of offering electrified mining equipment that can utilize existing assets, dramatically extending their life while reducing the up-front costs usually associated with electrification.

“Cummins’ dedication to partnering with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and miners ensures that these technologies are developed and tested in real-world environments,” Jenny Bush adds. “With hybrid retrofit kits, modular component upgrades and scalable solutions, we are bringing miners the flexibility and confidence they need to decarbonize operations while adapting to evolving technologies and infrastructure.”

Cummins believes its trusted relationships with OEMs across various industries combined with their vast global service and parts network will give their hybrid retrofit packages a competitive edge, delivering technical support that similar, startup outfits simply can’t.

SOURCE | IMAGES: First Mode, via Cummins.

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Volvo L25 Electric compact wheel loader helps set this organic vineyard apart

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Volvo L25 Electric compact wheel loader helps set this organic vineyard apart

Grapes are sensitive – and when you’re depending on them to have a certain flavor, a certain acidity, and even a certain smell, the last thing you want is diesel particulate matter settling on them. That’s just one of the reasons electric equipment options like Volvo’s electric wheel loader offer unique advantages to companies like Ästad Vingård.

Located in Sweden’s beautiful Åkulla beech forest nature reserve, Ästad Vingård is one of Sweden’s largest commercial vineyards, growing organic Solaris grapes and producing its own award-winning wines. The vineyard also hosts tours ending at their own, onsite, Michelin-star Restaurang ÄNG.

As you can imagine, they’re very particular about the way everything feels, smells, and tastes – but the sound, too, is part of the experience Ästad wants to create. That was the sort of thinking that went into Ästad’s decision to deploy one of the new Volvo L25 Electric compact wheel loaders late last summer.

“We’re super satisfied (with the Volvo),” explaines Henrik Carlsson, Head of Projects and Operations at Ästad Vingård. “It’s exactly what we hoped for – versatile and able to work a full day!”

The Volvo L25 Electric packs a pair of electric motors. One to drive the loader and the other to power the hydraulic systems. Together, they give the L25 wheel loader a lifting capacity more than 12,300 lb. Volvo says the 40 kWh battery and 48V electrical system are good for up to eight hours of continuous operation.

This electric compact loader supports the vineyard with everything from landscaping and waste transport to snow removal – all without disturbing the vineyard’s guests with noise or diesel smells. All that’s left for them to do is enjoy the experience.

Electrek’s Take

As the electric agricultural equipment market evolves, the winners will be the manufacturers who deliver bulletproof, seamless operation from a dealer and support network that’s just as bulletproof and seamless. The organic and hobby farm market (which I’d include vineyards in) is ready for electrification – it’s just a matter of which brand will deliver the most capable, flexible machines to market first.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo CE, via LinkedIn.

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Trump’s broadside against wind industry puts projects that could power millions of homes at risk

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Trump's broadside against wind industry puts projects that could power millions of homes at risk

A view of the turbines at Orsted’s offshore wind farm near Nysted, Denmark, September 4, 2023. 

Tom Little | Reuters

President Donald Trump promised to unleash U.S. energy dominance, but his sweeping executive order targeting wind power puts a pipeline of projects at risk that would generate enough electricity for millions of American homes.

The order Trump issued on his first day in office indefinitely paused new offshore wind leases in U.S. coastal waters and halted new permits pending the completion of a review. The order jeopardizes proposed projects on the East Coast that have not yet secured permits totaling 32 gigawatts of power, according to data from the consulting firm Aurora Energy Research.

“At the moment, it’s really hard to see how any of these projects will be able to move forward,” said Artem Abramov, head of new energies research at the consultancy Rystad. Like Aurora, Rystad estimates that around 30 gigawatts of projects on the U.S. East Coast are at risk.

Those projects, if realized, would provide enough combined power for more than 12 million homes in the U.S., according a CNBC analysis of data from the Energy Information Administration. The order is not expected to impact projects under construction totaling about 5 gigawatts, according to Aurora.

Trump has abandoned commitments made during the Biden administration to fight climate change, withdrawing the U.S. for a second time from the Paris agreement. He has focused on boosting fossil fuel production, opening U.S. coastal waters to oil and gas leasing on the same day he withdrew those waters for wind.

Trump’s order will jeopardize the efforts of states in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to transition away from fossil fuels and decarbonize their electric grid, Abramov said. New York, New Jersey and Virginia, for example, have ambitious clean energy goals adopted at the state level. But they are too far north to rely on solar with battery for power, Abramov said.

“If you want to achieve the future where the power generation in New York or New Jersey or Virginia is completely fossil free, if that’s the ultimate goal, there are not so many alternatives to offshore wind,” Abramov said.

The order could ultimately force states to rely more on carbon-emitting natural gas, according to Rystad and Aurora. But it is virtually impossible for a state like New York to meet its climate goals and ensure an adequate energy supply, particularly downstate in the New York City metro area, without offshore wind, said Julia Hoos, who heads Aurora’s U.S. East division.

Power projects waiting in line to connect to the electric grid in downstate New York through 2027 are almost entirely wind and transmission, Hoos said.

“There is virtually no possibility to bring online new gas in the next 18 to 24 months, unless there’s a significant reform or there’s some sort of fast track to bring online that gas, so you really can run into reliability issues,” Hoos said.

But more natural gas generation will likely be built later in the decade on the back of Trump’s policies, Hoos said. Investor sentiment was already shifting toward gas before the election results due in part to the need for reliable power to meet demand from artificial intelligence data centers, Abramov said.

Immediate impact

Two weeks after Trump’s order, New Jersey decided against moving forward for now with the Atlantic Shores project, which stood to become the first offshore wind development in the state. The state utilities board cited “uncertainty driven by federal actions and permitting” and European oil major Shell pulling out of the project.

“The offshore wind industry is currently facing significant challenges, and now is the time for patience and prudence,” Gov. Phil Murphy said in a statement backing the board’s decision.

Murphy, who has set a goal to achieve 100% clean energy in New Jersey by 2035, said he hoped “the Trump Administration will partner with New Jersey to lower costs for consumers, promote energy security, and create good-paying construction and manufacturing jobs.”

Offshore wind in the U.S. “has come to a stop, more or less with immediate effect” in the wake of Trump’s order, Vestas Wind Energy Systems CEO Henrik Andersen told investors on the company’s Feb. 5 earnings call. Denmark’s Vestas is one of the world’s leaders in manufacturing and servicing wind turbines.

Industry headwinds

Vestas CEO says wind turbine manufacturer is ‘well positioned’ amid tariff concerns

But the industry has struggled against supply chain bottlenecks and high interest rates. Offshore wind was already the the most expensive form of renewable energy, Abramov said. Developers in the U.S. have faced a lot of cost certainty due to the challenges of building on water as opposed to land, Hoos said.

“The industry was hoping that the cost would come down,” Abramov said. “We haven’t seen any projects in the United States which was able to achieve lower levelized cost of energy.”

The world’s largest offshore wind developer, Denmark’s Orsted, decided on Feb. 5 to ditch its goal to install up to 38 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Orsted also slashed its investment program through the end of the decade by about 25% to range of 210 to 230 billion Danish crowns (about $29 billion to $32 billion), down from 270 billion crowns previously.

Orsted’s Sunrise Wind and Revolution wind projects that are under construction offshore New York and New England respectively should not be impacted by Trump’s order, CEO Rasmus Errboe told investors the company’s company’s Feb. 6 earnings call. Future developments, however, may be at risk.

“We are fully committed to moving them forward and deliver on our commitments,” Errboe said. “We do not expect that the executive order will have any implications on assets under construction, but of course for assets under development, it’s potentially a different situation.”

The order also should not impact Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, the largest such project under construction in the U.S. at 2.6 gigawatts of power, Dominion Energy CEO Robert Blue told investors on the utility’s Feb. 12 earning call.

Stopping it would be the most inflationary action that could be taken with respect to energy in Virginia,” Blue said. “It’s needed to power that growing data center market we’ve been talking about, critical to continuing U.S. superiority in AI and technology.”

Looking for clarity

The wind industry lobby group American Clean Power in a Jan. 20 statement described Trump’s order as a blanket measure that will jeopardize domestic energy development and harm American businesses and workers. The president’s order contradicts the administration’s goal to reduce bureaucracy and unleash energy production, ACP CEO Jason Grumet said in the statement.

The ACP is now trying to get clarity from the Trump administration on how the executive order will be implemented, said Frank Macchiarola, the group’s chief advocacy officer. It’s unclear, for example, when the review of permit and lease practices will be complete, Macchiarola said.

A spokesperson for the Interior Department simply said the department is implementing Trump’s executive order when asked for comment on a detailed list of questions. When asked when the review of permit and lease practices will be complete, the spokesperson said any estimate would be hypothetical.

The wind industry is committed to working with the Trump administration, supports the president’s push for energy dominance agenda and is making the case that renewables have a key role to play in that agenda as the largest new source of electricity in the U.S., Macchiarola said.

“When past administrations have chosen to stifle American energy development that has been almost universally viewed as a mistake,” Macchiarola said.

Onshore wind permitting has also been halted pending the review, but the part of the industry is unlikely to face a substantial impact, Rystad’s Abramov said. Wind farms onshore are almost entirely built on private rather than federal land, he said. The market is also already saturated and adding capacity is largely dependent on building out more energy storage first, the analyst said.

Offshore wind, however, is a much less mature market in the U.S. and was viewed as major growth opportunity for the industry, Abramov said. But that appears to changing rapidly.

“They don’t see the U.S. as a market for continuous offshore wind expansion as long as this order is in place,” the analyst said.

— CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.

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