Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas.
Nick Oxford | Reuters
A panic-induced sell-off in the oil market triggered by virus concerns has thrown the commodity’s upward march into question — but energy experts at Goldman Sachs don’t appear to be rattled.
Fears over the surging delta coronavirus variant and a fresh supply boost agreement from OPEC+ sent oil prices tumbling down more than 7% as the trading week opened Monday.
The drop was the steepest since March, a rude awakening for oil bulls who’d been enjoying the commodities’ highest prices in 2½ years.
International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $68.42 a barrel at 2:15 p.m. in London on Tuesday, down just over 7% from its Friday close of $73.59 a barrel.
Oil analysts were quick to stress the uncertain road ahead for demand as new waves of Covid-19 infections ― many among communities that have high vaccination rates ― threaten the recent months of economic recovery.
“The market is clearly unsettled about the demand outlook. And rightly so. The rise in delta variant cases is raising questions about the sustainability of demand,” Stephen Brennock, a senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, wrote in a research note Tuesday entitled “Oil takes a beating.”
But analysts at Goldman Sachs led by Senior Commodity Strategist Damien Courvalin see the current setback as merely a speedbump, with little concrete reason for oil bulls to be worried.
Supply driving the bulls?
Oil balances globally are tighter than they were before, despite the agreement between OPEC and its allies over the weekend to cumulatively increase crude production by 400,000 barrels a day on a monthly basis beginning in August.
The International Energy Agency estimated a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year compared to its demand predictions in the absence of an OPEC supply deal.
And Goldman predicts the impact from delta to be in the neighborhood of “a potential 1 mb/d (million barrels per day) hit for only a couple months, and even less if vaccines prove effective at lowering hospitalizations in DMs (developing markets), the origin of most summer demand improvements,” as per its latest report.
Goldman’s call is in line with its previously bullish stance, which saw it forecasting Brent hitting $80 per barrel in the second half of this year.
The optimistic recovery outlook, paired with what it sees as a “slower” production ramp-up than expected from OPEC and tighter supply, so far means that “our constructive view on oil prices remains intact.” But the immediate-term demand hit from delta fears triggered a swap in the lender’s quarterly forecasts: It now expects Brent to average $75 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and only reach $80 by the fourth quarter.
“Oil prices may continue to gyrate wildly in the coming weeks given the uncertainties of the Delta variant and the slow velocity of supply developments,” Goldman’s analysts wrote.
Nonetheless, they continued, “we believe that the oil market repricing to a higher equilibrium is far from over, with the bullish impulse shifting from the demand to the supply side.”
The China factor
A less talked-about factor in the future demand picture is the world’s biggest oil customer: China. The recovery of the planet’s second-largest economy is showing signs of losing momentum, which would throw a major wrench in the trajectory for crude.
China’s crude imports were down 2% in May from the previous month and the lowest monthly volume since the year began, according to PVM Associates, falling to 9.77 million barrels per day. In July, they fell further to 9.55 million barrels per day, according to Refinitiv Oil Research. The country’s imports for the first half of 2021 were down 3% from the same period in 2020, and the first contraction of that level since 2013.
“China’s latest GDP data suggest the nation’s V-shaped economic rebound from Covid-19 is cooling,” PVM’s Brennock wrote. “More worryingly, recent customs data out of China is giving the market some mixed signals that are tilted to the bearish side.”
The confluence of uncertain demand due to the delta variant, cooling import levels from China and re-introduced supply from OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, suggest bearish signals to the market. But how long the uncertainty will last and whether national vaccine campaigns can offset the mutating virus will ultimately drive the demand picture. In the meantime, supply dynamics, particularly current inventory tightness, continues to give some fuel to the oil bulls.
“Questions are being asked whether the recently announced increase in OPEC+ supply will overwhelm the recovery in demand,” Brennock wrote. “Currently, this seems unlikely, although the evidence from the world’s top oil importing nation appears to favour the bearish narrative.”
The electric Chevy Equinox is America’s best-selling EV outside of Tesla. Cadillac is now leading the luxury segment, but GM said its aggressive EV expansion is over as it shifts back to ICE vehicles.
Chevy, Cadillac drive GM EV sales growth in Q3
GM’s electric vehicle sales are growing faster than those of any major OEM in the US. In the third quarter, Chevy, Cadillac, and GMC sold nearly 67,000 EVs, more than doubling from Q3 2024.
Combined, GM accounted for 16.5% of all EV sales in the US in Q3. Although it’s outpacing the industry, GM is pulling back EV plans and will continue to offer several internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles for a bit longer than expected.
After achieving its highest third-quarter market share since 2017, GM’s CEO Mary Barra said, “With the evolving regulatory framework and the end of federal consumer incentives, it is now clear that near-term EV adoption will be lower than planned.
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Due to the changes, GM is “reassessing” EV capacity and manufacturing in the US. Barra said the company “aggressively expanded our electric vehicle capacity” over the past few years to meet the regulatory requirements.
(Source: GM)
With the recent policy changes, including the $7,500 federal tax credit expiring at the end of September, GM is shifting back to ICE vehicles.
“It’s clear that ICE volumes will remain higher for longer,” Barra explained, adding that GM will continue to produce gas-powered vehicles for the foreseeable future.
Cadillac ESCALADE IQL electric SUV (Source: Cadillac)
GM is onshoring production of the Chevy Blazer. It’s also developing a next-gen Cadillac CT5 and plans to extend the Cadillac XT5. In early 2027, GM will begin building the Cadillac Escalade and a new full-size, light-duty pickup at its Orion Assembly plant.
Although Barra still claims that “electric vehicles remain our North Star,” GM announced last week that its shifting EV plans would cost about $1.6 billion.
Chevy Equinox EV LT (Source: GM)
GM beat top and bottom lines in the third quarter, posting $45.59 billion in revenue with an adjusted EPS of $2.80. Share prices are trading up over 13% after GM raised its full-year guidance. The company now expects an adjusted EBIT of $12 to $13 billion, up from the previous $10 to $12.5 billion it previously forecasted.
It is also expected to take less of a tariff hit than expected. GM updated its full-year gross tariff impact to $3.5 to $4.5 billion, down from $4 to $5 billion.
2026 Cadillac Vistiq electric SUV (Source: GM)
Meanwhile, GM’s net income plunged 57% to $1.3 billion in Q3, down from about $3.1 billion in the same period last year.
GM’s CFO Paul Jacobson said during an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box Tuesday morning that about 40% of the company’s EVs were profitable on a production basis. He explained that GM expects EVs to take longer than anticipated to reach profitability.
“We continue to believe that there is a strong future for electric vehicles, and we’ve got a great portfolio to be competitive, but we do have some structural changes that we need to do to make sure that we lower the cost of producing those vehicles,” Jacobson said.
2026 GMC Sierra EV AT4 (left) and Elevation (right) trims (Source: GMC)
Looking ahead, GM is focused on restoring profit margins in North America (8 to 10% adjusted EBIT margins), while also “driving EV profitability, maintaining production and pricing discipline, managing fixed costs, and further reducing tariff exposure.”
GM said it will continue to invest in new battery chemistries, form factors, and architectural improvements to boost EV profits in the future.
The shift comes despite Chevy, Cadillac, and GMC’s strong growth, largely thanks to EVs. Chevy is the fastest-growing electric vehicle brand, with the low-cost Equinox EV proving to be a hit. Cadillac is the best-selling luxury EV brand in the US this year (excluding Tesla) with three of the top ten models, including the Lyriq, Optiq, and Vistiq.
Looking to try GM’s electric vehicles for yourself? From the Chevy Equinox EV to the Cadillac Escalade IQ, you can use our links below to find available models near you.
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Tesla has slashed lease prices across most of its electric vehicle lineup in the US to create more demand after the tax credit went away.
With demand in the US pulling forward into Q3 due to the end of the federal tax credit, Tesla had a surge in deliveries, but demand is expected to fall in Q4.
The automaker is now adjusting its prices, starting with leases, to try to drum up demand.
With an overnight update to its online configurator, Tesla slashed lease prices:
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Model 3 (RWD): Dropped by $100 to $329/month (from $429).
Model Y (Long Range): Dropped by $80 to $449/month (from $529).
Cybertruck (AWD): Dropped by $50 to $699/month (from $749).
However, the automaker also warns that prices are going to go back up on November 1st:
While Tesla often offers temporary discounts, they often tend to happen toward the end of quarters.
In this case, it appears that Tesla is seeking an earlier boost in demand.
Without the tax credit, most of Tesla’s vehicles have virtually become $7,500 more expensive overnight in the US, which has remained its only healthy large market since a decline in demand in 2024.
Electrek’s Take
$330 per month for a Model 3 RWD is not a bad deal, but there are many good deals in the EV leasing world right now, and I would expect to see even more attractive deals toward the end of the year.
I’m on the market to upgrade my Model 3, but I’m on the lookout for some fire deals, from Tesla or others, toward the end of the year.
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BOO! It’s Halloween 2025 and Rivian is helping its owners get in the spirit.
Did I scare you?
We are now ten days away from Halloween 2025 and Rivian is rolling out a fun little software update that converts your R1S or R1T into a unique theme it calls “vehicle costumes.”
While most of the year is dedicated to more robust updates that fix bugs and introduce new features (which we also cover), Halloween offers the Rivian team an opportunity to be creative, enabling its EV owners to get a little spooky and festive with a unique theme.
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Last year’s “costume” was themed after both Knight Rider and Back to the Future options, transforming the dash displays while delivering unique light and sound displays on the exterior.
As I reported last week, Rivian began teasing its 2025 Halloween theme on social media with a brief video, saying something was “bubbling.” I surmised by the moss on the vehicles front end and its proximity to water, that this year’s vehicle costume would have something to do with the swamp.
That was correct.
In fact, I was fortunate enough to get access to Rivian’s 2025 Halloween theme a little early and I filmed all the sights and sounds for you in a video below. Behold, Spooky Swamp!
The driver dash display during this year’s Halloween Theme/ Credit: Scooter Doll
Rivian’s Halloween 2025 theme emerges from the swamp
Per Rivian, this year’s vehicle costume for Halloween 2025 was inspired by “Bayou Country” — the newest chapter in the American automaker’s “Real Adventures” campaign.
As you’ll see in the video, Rivian’s 2025 Halloween update delivers a number of selectable options, altering the colors and sounds both inside and out of the vehicle. Everything is activated from the Rivian app while your R1S or R1T is in park.
Here are the four exterior displays to choose from:
Swamp Gas
Player Piano
Bayou Blast
Scary Spirit
Furthermore, you can choose to activate these exterior displays manually, or via motion sensor in front of the vehicle.
Another creepy option this year is “spooky overhead lights” which, occasionally flashes your EV’s interior lights like you’re in a horror film. Very creepy.
Inside the Rivian cabin, you’ll find even more immersive Halloween ambiance for 2025, including four unique background tracks, providing a soundtrack to pumpkin-filled bayou animations across both display screens. Here are the four tracks, which I play for you in my video below.
Bayou Blues
Swampy Ambiance
Cajun Crawl
Ghostly Gloom
Last but not least, you can activate a slew of creepy sound effects while creepin’ out in the cabin. All with a simple tap. Here are those effects (these are not official names, just what I call them):
Alligator growl
Snake
Skeleton Laugh
Creaky Haunted House
Frog
Thunderstorm
Last but not least, as promised, is my video, shot for you to experience Rivian’s 2025 Halloween theme, regardless of whether you own or lease one. Note that I did deploy my own fog machine (yes I have a fog machine lying around the house, why don’t you?) So not all of the visual effects you see come with the Rivian update.
Happy Halloween!
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