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Just a speed bump? Oil has taken a dive, but Goldman is still bullish

Published

4 years ago

July 20, 2021

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Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas.

Nick Oxford | Reuters

A panic-induced sell-off in the oil market triggered by virus concerns has thrown the commodity’s upward march into question — but energy experts at Goldman Sachs don’t appear to be rattled.

Fears over the surging delta coronavirus variant and a fresh supply boost agreement from OPEC+ sent oil prices tumbling down more than 7% as the trading week opened Monday.

The drop was the steepest since March, a rude awakening for oil bulls who’d been enjoying the commodities’ highest prices in 2½ years.

International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $68.42 a barrel at 2:15 p.m. in London on Tuesday, down just over 7% from its Friday close of $73.59 a barrel.

Oil analysts were quick to stress the uncertain road ahead for demand as new waves of Covid-19 infections ― many among communities that have high vaccination rates ― threaten the recent months of economic recovery.

“The market is clearly unsettled about the demand outlook. And rightly so. The rise in delta variant cases is raising questions about the sustainability of demand,” Stephen Brennock, a senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, wrote in a research note Tuesday entitled “Oil takes a beating.”

But analysts at Goldman Sachs led by Senior Commodity Strategist Damien Courvalin see the current setback as merely a speedbump, with little concrete reason for oil bulls to be worried.

Supply driving the bulls?

Oil balances globally are tighter than they were before, despite the agreement between OPEC and its allies over the weekend to cumulatively increase crude production by 400,000 barrels a day on a monthly basis beginning in August.

The International Energy Agency estimated a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year compared to its demand predictions in the absence of an OPEC supply deal.

And Goldman predicts the impact from delta to be in the neighborhood of “a potential 1 mb/d (million barrels per day) hit for only a couple months, and even less if vaccines prove effective at lowering hospitalizations in DMs (developing markets), the origin of most summer demand improvements,” as per its latest report.

Goldman’s call is in line with its previously bullish stance, which saw it forecasting Brent hitting $80 per barrel in the second half of this year.

The optimistic recovery outlook, paired with what it sees as a “slower” production ramp-up than expected from OPEC and tighter supply, so far means that “our constructive view on oil prices remains intact.” But the immediate-term demand hit from delta fears triggered a swap in the lender’s quarterly forecasts: It now expects Brent to average $75 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and only reach $80 by the fourth quarter.

“Oil prices may continue to gyrate wildly in the coming weeks given the uncertainties of the Delta variant and the slow velocity of supply developments,” Goldman’s analysts wrote.

Nonetheless, they continued, “we believe that the oil market repricing to a higher equilibrium is far from over, with the bullish impulse shifting from the demand to the supply side.”

The China factor

A less talked-about factor in the future demand picture is the world’s biggest oil customer: China. The recovery of the planet’s second-largest economy is showing signs of losing momentum, which would throw a major wrench in the trajectory for crude.

China’s crude imports were down 2% in May from the previous month and the lowest monthly volume since the year began, according to PVM Associates, falling to 9.77 million barrels per day. In July, they fell further to 9.55 million barrels per day, according to Refinitiv Oil Research. The country’s imports for the first half of 2021 were down 3% from the same period in 2020, and the first contraction of that level since 2013.

“China’s latest GDP data suggest the nation’s V-shaped economic rebound from Covid-19 is cooling,” PVM’s Brennock wrote. “More worryingly, recent customs data out of China is giving the market some mixed signals that are tilted to the bearish side.”

The confluence of uncertain demand due to the delta variant, cooling import levels from China and re-introduced supply from OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, suggest bearish signals to the market. But how long the uncertainty will last and whether national vaccine campaigns can offset the mutating virus will ultimately drive the demand picture. In the meantime, supply dynamics, particularly current inventory tightness, continues to give some fuel to the oil bulls.

“Questions are being asked whether the recently announced increase in OPEC+ supply will overwhelm the recovery in demand,” Brennock wrote. “Currently, this seems unlikely, although the evidence from the world’s top oil importing nation appears to favour the bearish narrative.”

Environment

Trump to shut down all 8,000 EV charging ports at federal govt buildings

Published

13 hours ago

February 21, 2025

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Trump to shut down all 8,000 EV charging ports at federal govt buildings

Trump EV charging federal buildings — Photo: Blink Charging

The Trump administration is shutting down EV chargers at all federal government buildings and is also expected to sell off the General Services Administration‘s (GSA) newly bought EVs.

GSA, which manages all federal government-owned buildings, also operates the federal buildings’ EV chargers. Federally owned EVs and federal employee-owned personal EVs are charged on those 8,000 charging ports.

The Verge reports it’s been told by a source that plans will be officially announced internally next week, and it’s seen an email that GSA has already sent to regional offices about the plans:

“As GSA has worked to align with the current administration, we have received direction that all GSA-owned charging stations are not mission-critical.”

The GSA is working on the timing of canceling current network contracts that keep the EV chargers operational. Once those contracts are canceled, the stations will be taken out of service and “turned off at the breaker,” the email reads. Other chargers will be turned off starting next week.

“Neither Government Owned Vehicles nor Privately Owned Vehicles will be able to charge at these charging stations once they’re out of service.”

Colorado Public Radio first reported yesterday that it had seen the email that was sent to the Denver Federal Center, which has 22 EV charging stations at 11 locations.

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The Trump/Elon Musk administration has taken the GSA’s fleet electrification webpage offline entirely. (An archived version is available here.)

The Verge‘s source also said that the GSA will offload the EVs it bought during the Biden administration, although it’s unknown whether they’ll be sold or stored.

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Environment

Hackers steal $1.5 billion from exchange Bybit in biggest-ever crypto heist

Published

13 hours ago

February 21, 2025

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Hackers steal .5 billion from exchange Bybit in biggest-ever crypto heist

Ben Zhou, chief executive officer of ByBit, during the Token2049 conference in Singapore, on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2023.

Joseph Nair | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Bybit, a major cryptocurrency exchange, has been hacked to the tune of $1.5 billion in digital assets, in what’s estimated to be the largest crypto heist in history.

The attack compromised Bybit’s cold wallet, an offline storage system designed for security. The stolen funds, primarily in ether, were quickly transferred across multiple wallets and liquidated through various platforms.

“Please rest assured that all other cold wallets are secure,” Ben Zhou, CEO of Bybit, posted on X. “All withdrawals are NORMAL.”

Blockchain analysis firms, including Elliptic and Arkham Intelligence, traced the stolen crypto as it was moved to various accounts and swiftly offloaded. The hack far surpasses previous thefts in the sector, according to Elliptic. That includes the $611 million stolen from Poly Network in 2021 and the $570 million drained from Binance in 2022.

Analysts at Elliptic later linked the attack to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, a state-sponsored hacking collective notorious for siphoning billions of dollars from the cryptocurrency industry. The group is known for exploiting security vulnerabilities to finance North Korea’s regime, often using sophisticated laundering methods to obscure the flow of funds.

“We’ve labelled the thief’s addresses in our software, to help to prevent these funds from being cashed-out through any other exchanges,” said Tom Robinson, chief scientist at Elliptic, in an email.

The breach immediately triggered a rush of withdrawals from Bybit as users feared potential insolvency. Zhou said outflows had stabilized. To reassure customers, he announced that Bybit had secured a bridge loan from undisclosed partners to cover any unrecoverable losses and maintain operations.

The Lazarus Group’s history of targeting crypto platforms dates back to 2017, when the group infiltrated four South Korean exchanges and stole $200 million worth of bitcoin. As law enforcement agencies and crypto tracking firms work to trace the stolen assets, industry experts warn that large-scale thefts remain a fundamental risk.

“The more difficult we make it to benefit from crimes such as this, the less frequently they will take place,” Elliptic’s Robinson wrote in a post.

WATCH: Crypto stocks plunge

Crypto stocks plunge despite SEC dropping suit against Coinbase

Environment

Ford Mustang Mach-E is heavily discounted, you can even lease it for less than a Toyota Camry

Published

14 hours ago

February 21, 2025

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Ford Mustang Mach-E is heavily discounted, you can even lease it for less than a Toyota Camry

Ford is offering big savings opportunities right now on its electric vehicles. The Ford Mustang Mach-E can be leased for less than a Toyota Camry in some places despite costing over $10,000 more. Here’s how you can snag some savings.

Ford’s Mach-E is cheaper to lease than a Camry right now

With over 51,700 models sold in 2024, Ford’s Mustang Mach-E was the third best-selling EV in the US behind the Tesla Model Y and Model 3.

The electric Mach-E even outsold the gas-powered Mustang for the first time last year. To keep up with new models like the Honda Prologue and the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5, Ford introduced big discounts at the start of the year.

Ford extended its “Power Promise” program in January, offering all EV buyers a free Level 2 home charger. The company will even cover the cost of standard installation. If you already have a home charger, Ford will give you a $1,000 charging credit.

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According to online car research firm CarsDirect, the savings don’t stop there. Through March 31, the 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E can be leased for as little as $229 for 24 months in Southern California.

With $4,329 due at signing, the effective cost is just $409 per month. The deal is for the base 2024 Mach-E Select with an MSRP of $39,995 and includes a $7,750 lease cash bonus.

In comparison, the 2025 Toyota Camry Hybrid LE (MSRP $28,400) is listed at $299 for 39 months and $3,598 due upfront, for an effective rate of $391 per month.

Ford-Mach-E-lease-interior — 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E interior (Source: Ford)

Although that’s slightly less than the Mach-E, if you factor in Ford’s other incentives, it’s actually much cheaper. In addition to the $1,000 charging credit, Ford is offering current Tesla owners $1,000 in conquest bonus cash, which can be applied to the purchase or lease of a new vehicle.

The $2,000 in savings brings the effective monthly lease rate to just $326 per month. That’s even $10 cheaper than a 2025 Toyota Corolla LE with an MSRP of just $22,325, or over $17,500 less than the Mustang Mach-E.

Alternatively, Ford is offering the 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E for 0% APR for 72 months plus $2,500 in bonus cash.

Ford also introduced new incentives on the F-150 Lightning last week. The 2024 F-150 Lightning now features a nationwide 0% financing for 72 months offer with additional savings of up to $5,000 off MSRP.

Ford-EV-lease-discounts — Ford Mustang Mach-E (left) and F-150 Lightning (right) (Source: Ford)

The new Flash trim now features an up to $3,000 retail cash bonus, XLT and Lariat trims get up to $4,000, and the Platinum model gets a $5,000 bonus.

Ford’s electric pickup is eligible for the $1,000 Tesla Conquest bonus and public charging credit offer. Ram owners can snag an extra $2,000 from a serperate conquest program.

If you’re ready to test drive Ford’s electric vehicles for yourself, we can help you get started. You can use our links below to find Ford F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E models at a dealer near you.

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