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Just a speed bump? Oil has taken a dive, but Goldman is still bullish

Published

4 years ago

July 20, 2021

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Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas.

Nick Oxford | Reuters

A panic-induced sell-off in the oil market triggered by virus concerns has thrown the commodity’s upward march into question — but energy experts at Goldman Sachs don’t appear to be rattled.

Fears over the surging delta coronavirus variant and a fresh supply boost agreement from OPEC+ sent oil prices tumbling down more than 7% as the trading week opened Monday.

The drop was the steepest since March, a rude awakening for oil bulls who’d been enjoying the commodities’ highest prices in 2½ years.

International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $68.42 a barrel at 2:15 p.m. in London on Tuesday, down just over 7% from its Friday close of $73.59 a barrel.

Oil analysts were quick to stress the uncertain road ahead for demand as new waves of Covid-19 infections ― many among communities that have high vaccination rates ― threaten the recent months of economic recovery.

“The market is clearly unsettled about the demand outlook. And rightly so. The rise in delta variant cases is raising questions about the sustainability of demand,” Stephen Brennock, a senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, wrote in a research note Tuesday entitled “Oil takes a beating.”

But analysts at Goldman Sachs led by Senior Commodity Strategist Damien Courvalin see the current setback as merely a speedbump, with little concrete reason for oil bulls to be worried.

Supply driving the bulls?

Oil balances globally are tighter than they were before, despite the agreement between OPEC and its allies over the weekend to cumulatively increase crude production by 400,000 barrels a day on a monthly basis beginning in August.

The International Energy Agency estimated a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year compared to its demand predictions in the absence of an OPEC supply deal.

And Goldman predicts the impact from delta to be in the neighborhood of “a potential 1 mb/d (million barrels per day) hit for only a couple months, and even less if vaccines prove effective at lowering hospitalizations in DMs (developing markets), the origin of most summer demand improvements,” as per its latest report.

Goldman’s call is in line with its previously bullish stance, which saw it forecasting Brent hitting $80 per barrel in the second half of this year.

The optimistic recovery outlook, paired with what it sees as a “slower” production ramp-up than expected from OPEC and tighter supply, so far means that “our constructive view on oil prices remains intact.” But the immediate-term demand hit from delta fears triggered a swap in the lender’s quarterly forecasts: It now expects Brent to average $75 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and only reach $80 by the fourth quarter.

“Oil prices may continue to gyrate wildly in the coming weeks given the uncertainties of the Delta variant and the slow velocity of supply developments,” Goldman’s analysts wrote.

Nonetheless, they continued, “we believe that the oil market repricing to a higher equilibrium is far from over, with the bullish impulse shifting from the demand to the supply side.”

The China factor

A less talked-about factor in the future demand picture is the world’s biggest oil customer: China. The recovery of the planet’s second-largest economy is showing signs of losing momentum, which would throw a major wrench in the trajectory for crude.

China’s crude imports were down 2% in May from the previous month and the lowest monthly volume since the year began, according to PVM Associates, falling to 9.77 million barrels per day. In July, they fell further to 9.55 million barrels per day, according to Refinitiv Oil Research. The country’s imports for the first half of 2021 were down 3% from the same period in 2020, and the first contraction of that level since 2013.

“China’s latest GDP data suggest the nation’s V-shaped economic rebound from Covid-19 is cooling,” PVM’s Brennock wrote. “More worryingly, recent customs data out of China is giving the market some mixed signals that are tilted to the bearish side.”

The confluence of uncertain demand due to the delta variant, cooling import levels from China and re-introduced supply from OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, suggest bearish signals to the market. But how long the uncertainty will last and whether national vaccine campaigns can offset the mutating virus will ultimately drive the demand picture. In the meantime, supply dynamics, particularly current inventory tightness, continues to give some fuel to the oil bulls.

“Questions are being asked whether the recently announced increase in OPEC+ supply will overwhelm the recovery in demand,” Brennock wrote. “Currently, this seems unlikely, although the evidence from the world’s top oil importing nation appears to favour the bearish narrative.”

Environment

Double your chances in Climate XChange’s 10th Annual EV Raffle!

Published

7 hours ago

November 29, 2025

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Image: Climage XChange

Climate XChange’s Annual EV Raffle is back for the 10th year running – and for the first time ever, Climate XChange has two raffle options on the table! The nonprofit has helped lucky winners custom-order their ideal EVs for the past decade. Now you have the chance to kick off your holiday season with a brand new EV for as little as $100.

About half of the raffle tickets have been sold so far for each of the raffles – you can see the live ticket count on Climate XChange’s homepage – so your odds of winning are better than ever.

But don’t wait – raffle ticket sales end on December 8!

Climate XChange is working hard to help states transition to a zero-emissions economy. Every ticket you buy supports this mission while giving you a chance to drive home your dream EV.

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Here’s how Climate XChange’s 10th Annual Raffle works:

The Luxury Raffle

Grand Prize: The winner can choose any EV on the market, fully customized up to $120,000. This year, you can split the prize between two EVs if the total is $120,000 or less.
Taxes covered: This raffle comes with no strings – Climate XChange also pays all of the taxes.
Runner-up prizes: Even if you don’t win the Grand Prize, you still have a chance at the 2nd prize of $12,500 and the 3rd prize of $7,500.
Ticket price: $250.
Grand Prize Drawing: December 12, 2025.
Only 5,000 tickets will be sold for the Luxury Raffle.

The Mini Raffle (New for 2025)

Grand Prize: Choose any EV on the market, fully customized, up to $45,000. This is the perfect raffle if you’re ready to make the switch to an EV but aren’t in the market for a luxury model.
Taxes covered: Climate XChange pays all the taxes on the Mini Raffle, too.
Ticket price: $100.
Only 3,500 tickets will be sold for the Mini Raffle.

Why it’s worth entering

For a decade, Climate XChange has run a raffle that’s fair, transparent, and exciting. Every ticket stub is printed, and the entire drawing is live-streamed, including the loading of the raffle drum. Independent auditors also oversee the process.

Plus, your odds on the Luxury and Mini Raffles are far better than most car raffles, and they’re even better if you enter both.

Remember that only 5,000 tickets will be sold for the Luxury Raffle and only 3,500 for the Mini Raffle, and around half of the available tickets have been sold so far, so don’t miss your shot at your dream EV!

Climate XChange personally works with the winners to help them build and order their dream EVs. The winner of the Ninth Annual EV Raffle built a gorgeous storm blue Rivian R1T.

How to enter

Go to CarbonRaffle.org/Electrek before December 8 to buy your ticket. Start dreaming up your perfect EV – and know that no matter what, you’re helping accelerate the shift to clean energy.

Who is Climate XChange?

Climate XChange (CXC) is a nonpartisan nonprofit working to help states pass effective, equitable climate policies because they’re critical in accelerating the transition to a zero-emissions economy. CXC advances state climate policy through its State Climate Policy Network (SCPN) – a community of more than 15,000 advocates and policymakers – and its State Climate Policy Dashboard, a leading data platform for tracking climate action across the US.

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Environment

This fun-vibes Honda Cub lookalike electric scooter is now almost half off

Published

13 hours ago

November 29, 2025

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This fun-vibes Honda Cub lookalike electric scooter is now almost half off

The CSC Monterey – one of the most charming little electric scooters on the US market – has dropped to a shockingly low $1,699, down from its original $2,899 MSRP. That’s nearly half off for a full-size, street-legal electric scooter that channels major Honda Super Cub energy, but without the gas, noise, or maintenance of the original.

CSC Motorcycles, based in Azusa, California, has a long history of importing and supporting small-format electric and gas bikes, but the Monterey has always stood out as the brand’s “fun vibes first” model. With its step-through frame, big retro headlight, slim bodywork, and upright seating position, it looks like something from a 1960s postcard – just brought into the modern era with lithium batteries and a brushless hub motor.

I had my first experience on one of these scooters back in 2021, when I reviewed the then-new model here on Electrek. I instantly fell in love with it and even got one for my dad. It now lives at his place and I think he gets just as much joy from looking at it in his garage as riding it.

You can see my review video below.

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The performance is solidly moped-class, which is exactly what it’s designed for. A 2,400W rear hub motor pushes the Monterey up to a claimed 30 mph or 48 km/h (I found it really topped out at closer to 32 mph or 51 km/h), making it perfect for city streets, beach towns, and lower-speed suburban routes.

A 60V, roughly 1.6 kWh removable battery offers around 30–40 miles (48-64 km) of real-world range, depending on how aggressively you twist the throttle. It’s commuter-ready, grocery-run-ready, and campus-ready right out of the crate.

It’s also remarkably approachable. At around 181 pounds (82 kg), the Monterey is light for a sit-down scooter, making it easy to maneuver and park. There’s a small storage cubby, LED lighting, and the usual simple twist-and-go operation. And it comes with full support from CSC, a company that keeps a massive warehouse stocked with components and spare parts.

My sister has a CSC SG250 (I’m still trying to convert her to electric) and has gotten great support from them in the past, including from their mechanics walking her through carburetor questions over the phone. So I know from personal experience that CSC is a great company that stands behind its bikes.

But the real story here is the price. Scooters in this class typically hover between $2,500 and $4,500, and electric retro-style models often jump well above that.

At $1,699, the Monterey is one of the least expensive street-legal electric scooters available from a reputable US distributor, especially one that actually stocks parts and provides phone support.

If you’ve been curious about swapping a few car errands for something electric – or you just want a fun, vintage-styled runabout for getting around town – this is one of the best deals of the year.

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Environment

Podcast: Tesla Robotaxi setback, Mercedes-Benz CLA EV, Bollinger is over, and more

Published

1 day ago

November 28, 2025

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Podcast: Tesla Robotaxi setback, Mercedes-Benz CLA EV, Bollinger is over, and more

In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss a big Tesla Robotaxi setback, the new Mercedes-Benz CLA EV, Bollinger is over, and more.

Today’s episode is brought to you by Climate XChange, a nonpartisan nonprofit working to help states pass effective, equitable climate policies. Sales end on Dec. 8th for its 10th annual EV raffle, where participants have multiple opportunities to win their dream model. Visit CarbonRaffle.org/Electrek to learn more.

The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.

As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.

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After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:

We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.

Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:

Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET:

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