Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas.
Nick Oxford | Reuters
A panic-induced sell-off in the oil market triggered by virus concerns has thrown the commodity’s upward march into question — but energy experts at Goldman Sachs don’t appear to be rattled.
Fears over the surging delta coronavirus variant and a fresh supply boost agreement from OPEC+ sent oil prices tumbling down more than 7% as the trading week opened Monday.
The drop was the steepest since March, a rude awakening for oil bulls who’d been enjoying the commodities’ highest prices in 2½ years.
International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $68.42 a barrel at 2:15 p.m. in London on Tuesday, down just over 7% from its Friday close of $73.59 a barrel.
Oil analysts were quick to stress the uncertain road ahead for demand as new waves of Covid-19 infections ― many among communities that have high vaccination rates ― threaten the recent months of economic recovery.
“The market is clearly unsettled about the demand outlook. And rightly so. The rise in delta variant cases is raising questions about the sustainability of demand,” Stephen Brennock, a senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, wrote in a research note Tuesday entitled “Oil takes a beating.”
But analysts at Goldman Sachs led by Senior Commodity Strategist Damien Courvalin see the current setback as merely a speedbump, with little concrete reason for oil bulls to be worried.
Supply driving the bulls?
Oil balances globally are tighter than they were before, despite the agreement between OPEC and its allies over the weekend to cumulatively increase crude production by 400,000 barrels a day on a monthly basis beginning in August.
The International Energy Agency estimated a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year compared to its demand predictions in the absence of an OPEC supply deal.
And Goldman predicts the impact from delta to be in the neighborhood of “a potential 1 mb/d (million barrels per day) hit for only a couple months, and even less if vaccines prove effective at lowering hospitalizations in DMs (developing markets), the origin of most summer demand improvements,” as per its latest report.
Goldman’s call is in line with its previously bullish stance, which saw it forecasting Brent hitting $80 per barrel in the second half of this year.
The optimistic recovery outlook, paired with what it sees as a “slower” production ramp-up than expected from OPEC and tighter supply, so far means that “our constructive view on oil prices remains intact.” But the immediate-term demand hit from delta fears triggered a swap in the lender’s quarterly forecasts: It now expects Brent to average $75 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and only reach $80 by the fourth quarter.
“Oil prices may continue to gyrate wildly in the coming weeks given the uncertainties of the Delta variant and the slow velocity of supply developments,” Goldman’s analysts wrote.
Nonetheless, they continued, “we believe that the oil market repricing to a higher equilibrium is far from over, with the bullish impulse shifting from the demand to the supply side.”
The China factor
A less talked-about factor in the future demand picture is the world’s biggest oil customer: China. The recovery of the planet’s second-largest economy is showing signs of losing momentum, which would throw a major wrench in the trajectory for crude.
China’s crude imports were down 2% in May from the previous month and the lowest monthly volume since the year began, according to PVM Associates, falling to 9.77 million barrels per day. In July, they fell further to 9.55 million barrels per day, according to Refinitiv Oil Research. The country’s imports for the first half of 2021 were down 3% from the same period in 2020, and the first contraction of that level since 2013.
“China’s latest GDP data suggest the nation’s V-shaped economic rebound from Covid-19 is cooling,” PVM’s Brennock wrote. “More worryingly, recent customs data out of China is giving the market some mixed signals that are tilted to the bearish side.”
The confluence of uncertain demand due to the delta variant, cooling import levels from China and re-introduced supply from OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, suggest bearish signals to the market. But how long the uncertainty will last and whether national vaccine campaigns can offset the mutating virus will ultimately drive the demand picture. In the meantime, supply dynamics, particularly current inventory tightness, continues to give some fuel to the oil bulls.
“Questions are being asked whether the recently announced increase in OPEC+ supply will overwhelm the recovery in demand,” Brennock wrote. “Currently, this seems unlikely, although the evidence from the world’s top oil importing nation appears to favour the bearish narrative.”
The latest hybrid telehandler from New Holland packs a range-extending combustion engine to boost its battery power during longer shifts – but it doesn’t run on gas or diesel. Instead, this farm-friendly machine is built to run on METHANE.
Manure digester, via Ag Marketing Resource Center.
CASE and New Holland (collectively, CNH) understands its customers’ desire to put that biogas to good use. They also understand that nothing is quite as efficient as battery-electric power, though; but big farms have weird duty cycles: 4-6 hour shifts most of the year, then critical, un-skippable, non-negotiable round-the-clock running during harvest.
“With this prototype, New Holland shows its continuous commitment to the ‘Clean Energy Leader‘ strategy, building on our leadership in alternative fuel machines,” says Marco Gerbi, New Holland T4 and T5 tractor, loader and telehandler product management. “Our aim is to help our customers boost farm productivity and profitability by broadening our range of alternative fuel machines that do not compromise efficiency or productivity yet help to minimize agriculture’s carbon footprint.”
Primarily driven by a 70 kWh lithium-ion battery, the telehandler uses a methane-fueled version of Fiat Powertrain’s four-cylinder F28 engine as a range-extending backup whenever jobs demand more uptime. On the energy stored in the battery alone, New Holland says the machine can handle a full day’s worth of typical farm work — roughly a “350-day duty cycle,” and it can recharge from the grid, a biogas generator, or even rooftop (barntop?) solar.
It’s still just a prototype, but New Holland claims the hybrid setup cuts fuel use by up to 70% compared to a conventional diesel telehandler while delivering 30% better performance and uptime for its operators.
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The Boring Company, Elon Musk’s tunneling startup, is reportedly facing significant issues with its new project in Nashville, Tennessee. A key subcontractor has walked off the job, alleging that the company has failed to pay for work completed on the “Music City Loop,” claiming they have received only 5% of what they are owed.
We have been following The Boring Company’s expansion efforts closely.
After the relative success of the Las Vegas Loop and several projects that failed to materialize, it looked like the company was winding down until a new proposal in Nashville gained some momentum.
However, a new report from the Nashville Banner indicates that the project is hitting a major wall.
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Shane Trucking and Excavating, a local contractor hired to handle preliminary work for the tunnel project, pulled its workers off the site this Monday. William Shane, the owner of the company, told the Banner that The Boring Company has “ghosted” them and failed to pay invoices totaling in the six figures.
According to Shane, the payment terms were initially set for every 15 days, then unilaterally switched to 60 days. Now, he claims it has been over 120 days since they broke ground, and his company has received only a fraction of the payment due.
“We were really skeptical from the beginning, and then since then, things pretty much just went downhill,” Shane said.
The contractor was reportedly responsible for preparing the launch pad for “Prufrock,” The Boring Company’s proprietary tunnel boring machine (TBM). We previously reported on Prufrock’s capabilities, with the company claiming it can dig tunnels significantly faster than conventional machines, supposedly porpoising directly from the surface to avoid digging expensive launch pits.
If the launch pad isn’t finished because the excavator wasn’t paid, Prufrock isn’t digging anywhere.
This isn’t the first time we’ve heard of payment issues involving Musk-led companies. Tesla has been known to not pay its bills, leading to small companies going bankrupt.
As The Boring Company was stiffing Shane on the bills, the company tried to poach workers from its own contractor and lied about it:
“One of their head guys texts two of my welders, offering them a job for $45 an hour from his work phone,” Shane described, noting that the same TBC employee denied sending the texts when confronted with screenshots. “That’s actually a breach of contract.”
On top of the missed payments, Shane alleges serious safety concerns. They made several official complaints to OSHA:
“Where we’re digging, we’re so far down, there should be concrete and different structures like that to hold the slope back from falling on you while you’re working. Where most people use concrete, they currently have — I’m not even kidding — they currently have wood. They had us install wood 2x12s.”
The Boring Company Vice President David Buss blamed missed payments on “invoicing errors” in a statement to the Banner:
“It does look like we had some invoicing errors on that. It was, you know, unfortunately, too common of a thing, but I assured them that we are going to make sure that invoices are wired tomorrow.”
He also said that he would look into the poaching allegations, but added that he is not aware of any OSHA complaints.
The “Music City Loop” was pitched as a solution to connect downtown Nashville to the airport, a route that is notoriously congested.
The Boring Company claims it can complete the project without public money, but there are some obvious issues with its financing.
Electrek’s Take
I’ve been willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on the “Loop” concept. While it falls short of the original “autonomous pods” vision or the “Hyperloop” speed dreams, the system in Las Vegas does work to move people, even if it is just Teslas in tunnels driven by humans.
There’s just no evidence that it would be more efficient than any other public transit system.
When Musk launched The Boring Company’s first test tunnel in LA, I asked him if he had any simulations showing his “loop” system to be more efficient. He said that they were working on that. That was 7 years ago.
Therefore, while The Boring Company appears to have achieved marginal improvements in tunnel boring, mainly when it comes to smaller tunnels; it has yet to show clear evidence that its Loop system is a better solution than any other public transit system.
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