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Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas.
Nick Oxford | Reuters

A panic-induced sell-off in the oil market triggered by virus concerns has thrown the commodity’s upward march into question — but energy experts at Goldman Sachs don’t appear to be rattled.

Fears over the surging delta coronavirus variant and a fresh supply boost agreement from OPEC+ sent oil prices tumbling down more than 7% as the trading week opened Monday.

The drop was the steepest since March, a rude awakening for oil bulls who’d been enjoying the commodities’ highest prices in 2½ years.

International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $68.42 a barrel at 2:15 p.m. in London on Tuesday, down just over 7% from its Friday close of $73.59 a barrel. 

Oil analysts were quick to stress the uncertain road ahead for demand as new waves of Covid-19 infections ― many among communities that have high vaccination rates ― threaten the recent months of economic recovery.

“The market is clearly unsettled about the demand outlook. And rightly so. The rise in delta variant cases is raising questions about the sustainability of demand,” Stephen Brennock, a senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, wrote in a research note Tuesday entitled “Oil takes a beating.”

But analysts at Goldman Sachs led by Senior Commodity Strategist Damien Courvalin see the current setback as merely a speedbump, with little concrete reason for oil bulls to be worried.

Supply driving the bulls?

Oil balances globally are tighter than they were before, despite the agreement between OPEC and its allies over the weekend to cumulatively increase crude production by 400,000 barrels a day on a monthly basis beginning in August. 

The International Energy Agency estimated a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year compared to its demand predictions in the absence of an OPEC supply deal.

And Goldman predicts the impact from delta to be in the neighborhood of “a potential 1 mb/d  (million barrels per day) hit for only a couple months, and even less if vaccines prove effective at lowering hospitalizations in DMs (developing markets), the origin of most summer demand improvements,” as per its latest report. 

Goldman’s call is in line with its previously bullish stance, which saw it forecasting Brent hitting $80 per barrel in the second half of this year.

The optimistic recovery outlook, paired with what it sees as a “slower” production ramp-up than expected from OPEC and tighter supply, so far means that “our constructive view on oil prices remains intact.” But the immediate-term demand hit from delta fears triggered a swap in the lender’s quarterly forecasts: It now expects Brent to average $75 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and only reach $80 by the fourth quarter.

“Oil prices may continue to gyrate wildly in the coming weeks given the uncertainties of the Delta variant and the slow velocity of supply developments,” Goldman’s analysts wrote. 

Nonetheless, they continued, “we believe that the oil market repricing to a higher equilibrium is far from over, with the bullish impulse shifting from the demand to the supply side.” 

The China factor

A less talked-about factor in the future demand picture is the world’s biggest oil customer: China. The recovery of the planet’s second-largest economy is showing signs of losing momentum, which would throw a major wrench in the trajectory for crude.  

China’s crude imports were down 2% in May from the previous month and the lowest monthly volume since the year began, according to PVM Associates, falling to 9.77 million barrels per day. In July, they fell further to 9.55 million barrels per day, according to Refinitiv Oil Research. The country’s imports for the first half of 2021 were down 3% from the same period in 2020, and the first contraction of that level since 2013.

“China’s latest GDP data suggest the nation’s V-shaped economic rebound from Covid-19 is cooling,” PVM’s Brennock wrote. “More worryingly, recent customs data out of China is giving the market some mixed signals that are tilted to the bearish side.”

The confluence of uncertain demand due to the delta variant, cooling import levels from China and re-introduced supply from OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, suggest bearish signals to the market. But how long the uncertainty will last and whether national vaccine campaigns can offset the mutating virus will ultimately drive the demand picture. In the meantime, supply dynamics, particularly current inventory tightness, continues to give some fuel to the oil bulls.  

“Questions are being asked whether the recently announced increase in OPEC+ supply will overwhelm the recovery in demand,” Brennock wrote. “Currently, this seems unlikely, although the evidence from the world’s top oil importing nation appears to favour the bearish narrative.”

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Mercedes-Benz unveils the new CLA Shooting Brake EV with impressive range

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Mercedes-Benz unveils the new CLA Shooting Brake EV with impressive range

The new CLA Shooting Brake is the first electric Mercedes vehicle available as an estate. It’s more spacious, more capable, and more high-tech than ever.

Meet the new Mercedes CLA Shooting Brake EV

Mercedes introduced the new CLA Shooting Brake on Tuesday, its first electric estate car. The Shooting Brake arrives as the second EV from the luxury brand’s new entry-level family of vehicles.

The electric wagon takes the best of the new CLA, which was revealed just a few weeks ago, and adds more space and capability.

It’s also bigger than the current CLA Shooting Brake, offering a more spacious interior. The new EV measures 4,723 mm in length, or 35 mm longer than the outgoing model.

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With an extended wheelbase of 2,790 mm (+61 mm), the electric version offers 14 mm more headroom and 11 mm more legroom in the front. Rear passengers gain 7 mm of headroom but lose 6 mm of legroom compared to the current model.

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Mercedes-Benz CLA Shooting Brake models (Source: Mercedes-Benz)

Boot space is 455 L, which is 50 L more than the CLA sedan, but 30 L less than the outgoing Shooting Brake. However, it does include an added Frunk (front trunk) for an extra 101 L of storage space.

With all seats folded, overall storage space is 1,290 L. It also comes with standard roof rails, which Mercedes claims can easily fit surfboards or bicycles with a 75 kg (165 lbs) load capacity.

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Mercedes-Benz CLA Shooting Brake with EQ Technology (Source: Mercedes-Benz)

Inside, the new Shooting Brake is nearly identical to the CLA Sedan. It features the new Mercedes-Benz Operating System (MB.OS) with its fourth-gen infotainment.

The setup includes a 14″ infotainment and 10.25″ driver display screens. An extra 14″ passenger screen is available. A trim piece with star-pattern graphics replaces it if not. All three screens are powered by the latest-gen chips and graphics from Unity Game Engine.

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Mercedes-Benz CLA Shooting Brake EV interior (Source: Mercedes-Benz)

Powered by the new Mercedes-Benz Modular Architecture and an 85 kWh battery, the new Shooting Brake EV offers up to 473 miles (761 km) WLTP range.

It will be available in single and dual-motor powertrains. The base CLA 250+ Shooting Brake has 268 hp (200 kW) output and a WLTP range of up to 473 miles (761 km). Meanwhile, the dual-motor CLA 350 4MATIC Shooting Brake has combined 349 hp (260 kW) and a range of up to 454 miles (730 km).

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Mercedes-Benz CLA Shooting Brake EV interior (Source: Mercedes-Benz)

Based on its 800V architecture, the new electric estate can add 193 miles (310 km) WLTP driving range within 10 minutes. Mercedes said that should be plenty to get from Geneva to Milan or Berlin to Hamburg.

Mercedes will introduce new EV variants in early 2026, followed by a 1.5 L hybrid model. Prices will be revealed closer to launch, but it’s expected to start slightly higher than the current model. The current CLA Shooting Brake starts at around €40,000 ($46,500) in Europe.

Following the new CLA and CLA Shooting Brake, Mercedes-Benz plans to launch two SUVs. Check back soon for more info on the upcoming lineup.

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U.S. moving fast to secure access to critical minerals to counter China’s dominance of market, Pentagon says

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U.S. moving fast to secure access to critical minerals to counter China's dominance of market, Pentagon says

MP Materials CEO on deal with the Defense Department

The Pentagon is taking immediate action to boost critical mineral production in the U.S. and counter China’s dominance of the supply chain for rare earth magnets, a defense official told CNBC on Tuesday.

The Defense Department last week agreed to buy a direct equity stake in MP Materials, which will make the U.S. government the miner’s largest shareholder. MP operates the only rare earth mine in the U.S. located at Mountain Pass, California, and a magnet plant in Forth Worth, Texas.

When asked whether the Pentagon is considering similar investments in other U.S. mining companies, the defense official said it is looking at opportunities to strengthen domestic critical mineral production.

“Rebuilding the critical minerals and rare earth magnet sectors of the U.S. industrial base won’t happen overnight, but DoD is taking immediate action to streamline processes and identify opportunities to strengthen critical minerals production,” official said in a statement.

Rare earths are used in weapons such as the F-35 warplane, drones and submarines among other other military platforms. The U.S. was almost entirely dependent on foreign countries for rare earths in 2023, with China representing about 70% of imports, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

MP Materials CEO James Litinsky told CNBC last week that he views the public-private partnership with the Defense Department as a model for other companies in industries that are important for national security but struggle to compete against the state-backed enterprises in China.

“I’d like to think that this is sort of the first, it’s a model,” Litinsky told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday. “We have to deliver at MP and show that this is an incredible route to go. But it’s a new way forward to accelerate free markets, to get the supply chain on shore that we want.”

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in April that the U.S. government was looking at taking direct equity stakes in critical mineral and rare earth miners to break China’s dominance. The Trump administration is also looking at stockpiling critical minerals and creating a sovereign risk insurance fund to protect companies investments’ in federally approved projects, Burgum said at an energy conference in Oklahoma City.

The Pentagon makes long-term investments in mining, processing and refining critical minerals, the defense official told CNBC. It has invested $540 million so far to support a critical mineral and rare earth supply chain in the U.S. and allied nations, the official said.

“That is significant, and DoD will continue to such efforts in accordance with congressional appropriations and statutory authorities,” the official said.

Catch up on the latest energy news from CNBC Pro:

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Crypto super PAC Fairshake reports $141 million war chest

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Crypto super PAC Fairshake reports 1 million war chest

Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Fairshake, the cryptocurrency industry’s most powerful political action committee, announced Tuesday that it now holds more than $141 million in cash on hand, underscoring the sector’s growing influence as Congress takes up landmark legislation this week.

The total, which includes liquid assets like crypto, stock, and cash, reflects a surge of donations from digital asset executives and firms, including a fresh $25 million from Coinbase.

Fairshake and its two affiliated PACs — Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress — have raised $109 million since Election Day in 2024 and $52 million during just the first half of this year.

“We are building an aggressive, targeted strategy for next year to ensure that pro-crypto voices are heard in key races across the country,” said spokesperson Josh Vlasto.

Ethereum succeeded beyond anyone's expectations, says network co-founder Vitalik Buterin at EthCC

The announcement lands in the middle of what lawmakers are calling “Crypto Week” on Capitol Hill, as the House begins deliberations on a trio of long-awaited bills that would define how digital assets are regulated.

The legislation includes the dividing of oversight, setting new stablecoin rules, and a bill banning the creation of a central bank digital currency.

The crypto industry is no longer just lobbying for survival, it is shaping the political landscape. Fairshake saw nearly every candidate it backed in 2024 win their race.

“We stuck to our core strategy from Day 1,” Fairshake previously told CNBC. “We supported pro-crypto candidates and opposed those who played politics with jobs and innovation, and won.”

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