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On the 10th anniversary of Nebraska‘s entrance into the Big Ten, interim athletic director Garrett Klassy officially began his term overseeing the Huskers’ program.

The irony isn’t lost on those who have lived through a jagged first decade in the conference.

Athletic director Bill Moos’ abrupt retirement last month isn’t the most surprising nor the most damaging thing Nebraska has absorbed since its celebrated Big Ten arrival on July 1, 2011. But Moos’ exit epitomizes the turbulence for a football program on its third coach, Scott Frost, and that is welcoming its fourth athletic director, Trev Alberts, since 2012. Alberts, a former All-America linebacker at Nebraska, officially begins his term Monday. But leadership instability has hurt Nebraska in a league, and especially a division, defined by long coaching and administrative tenures.

Other factors have contributed to the Huskers’ subpar results. The recruiting adjustment has been rocky at times. The Big Ten also is stronger than when Nebraska arrived, both financially and on the field.

Still, few expected Nebraska to complete its first Big Ten decade at 68-55, 43-41 in conference play. Since 2011, Nebraska ranks 54th nationally in win percentage (.553) and eighth among Big Ten teams. The Huskers have yet to win a league title (their last was in 1999). Their lone division championship came back in 2012, which preceded a 70-31 loss in the Big Ten championship game against Wisconsin, a team only in the game because both Ohio State and Penn State were ineligible.

The extended stretch of mediocrity is jarring for a Nebraska program that won five national titles between 1970 and 1997. From 1963 to 2001, the Huskers captured 22 conference championships (outright or shared) and logged 28 AP top-10 finishes and 22 seasons with 10 or more wins. During the span, Nebraska had only 11 seasons with three or more losses, none with more than four and none with more than three between 1969 and 2001.

The Huskers now have lost five or more games in five of the past six seasons.

“Nebraska is struggling to find its foothold from a leadership standpoint, a style standpoint, a recruiting standpoint,” said Damon Benning, a former Huskers I-back who played on national title teams in 1994 and 1995, and now hosts a daily sports talk radio show in Omaha. “Meanwhile, the conference just keeps getting better and better.

“A double whammy.”

The question is how much of Nebraska’s struggles can be attributed to joining the Big Ten, and how much can be tied to internal reasons. To find out, ESPN spoke to people in and around Nebraska’s program since the Big Ten arrival. Some were granted anonymity to speak freely about what they observed. Attempts to interview Frost and Moos were unsuccessful.

Those who spoke describe a program still searching for its identity in an improving conference. Nebraska is rightfully proud of its championship tradition but also somewhat hamstrung by the past, especially as the program navigates recruiting realities and other areas where it no longer holds clear advantages.

The Big Ten has provided the stability Nebraska needed, and the affiliation is still celebrated in academic circles. But others cling to Big Eight nostalgia and haven’t embraced Nebraska’s position in its newest league.

“You’ve got to have a plan, and the plan can’t be: ‘We’re going to win a national championship, we’re going to get back to national contention,” a source said. “The plan has to be: ‘Now that we are in the Big Ten, what are the challenges?’ I’m not saying temper expectations, but you have to get to: What are we all about, and how are we going to get there?”

Nebraska’s arrival in the Big Ten was greeted with excitement and exhales.

The Huskers needed a permanent home. The Big 12 had nearly been pillaged by the Pac-12, and teams such as Missouri and Colorado were looking to leave. Plus, the league had become increasingly Texas-centric.

“There was concern at the time as to whether the Big 12 would survive,” said Harvey Perlman, Nebraska’s chancellor from 2001 to 2016. “I wouldn’t call it desperation, but there was certainly some uneasiness about where Nebraska was going to find itself athletically. Finding a stable home in the Big Ten was certainly a relief.”

Nebraska’s academic community celebrated the move. The Big Ten’s Committee on Institutional Cooperation, an academic consortium between top research institutions, provided “a boost to our reputation,” Perlman said.

“On the academic side, it’s been great; there’s a lot of research and collaboration,” said Jo Potuto, a constitutional law professor at Nebraska and the faculty athletics representative since 1997. “On the athletic side, for everybody it has been a surprise Nebraska has not been more competitive, certainly not in football.”

The football struggles haven’t translated to other programs. Nebraska’s powerhouse volleyball team won national titles in 2015 and 2017, and owns three Big Ten titles. The baseball team has made five NCAA tournament appearances since 2014 and this spring won its second conference title.

Before the Big Ten move, Potuto attended a meeting athletic director Tom Osborne held with the school’s head coaches. Osborne, the Hall of Fame Huskers coach from 1973 to 1997, wanted the coaches’ input. Some mentioned recruiting and how it would change in a Midwest-based league. Ideally, they would have liked longer to prepare for the move. But none stated direct opposition, Potuto said.

Nebraska football entered the Big Ten following consecutive appearances in the Big 12 championship, losing second-half leads both times. The Huskers were 29-12 (17-7 Big 12) with two AP top-20 finishes under coach Bo Pelini. They didn’t dominate recruiting but had signed ESPN’s No. 17 class in 2011, and they did well in key talent areas such as Texas and California.

“We were pretty well into the Top 25 and went to a bowl game every year,” Osborne said. “We weren’t where we were in the ’90s, but we were in pretty good shape at that time.”

As a new Big Ten member, Nebraska received a smaller revenue share — $10 million-$11 million less than others for the first three years. This angered some key people around the university, sources said. But money never has been a major impediment at Nebraska. The football team, meanwhile, went 9-4 in its Big Ten debut season, finishing third in the Legends division and No. 24 in the AP poll.

Nebraska won the division the next year, and continued to compete. The Huskers had good to decent records against Penn State (3-0), Iowa (3-1), Michigan (2-1), Michigan State (2-2) and Ohio State (1-1) during their first four years in the Big Ten. They struggled with Wisconsin, going 1-3, including the drubbing in Indianapolis, but went 37-16 overall (22-10 Big Ten) with three top-25 finishes.

Was Nebraska a national contender? No. The team got blown out too often, and Pelini’s fiery nature got him in trouble, ultimately leading to his firing after the 2014 regular season. But these days, the Huskers likely would take those records in a heartbeat.

Why has Nebraska backslid so much since 2014, despite being in a division without any teams that match its championship tradition? The answer starts with recruiting.

Nebraska entered the Big Ten with some recruiting momentum, but Pelini had built his team for the Big 12, largely with players from the Big 12 footprint. The Huskers’ designed their two-gap defense to stop the spread offenses of the Big 12, not the bigger, power-based units of the Big Ten. Nebraska no longer was a national recruiting heavyweight, but the program still knew where to go to find the players it needed.

The Big Ten move has thrown Nebraska’s recruiting “out of whack,” a former assistant said. Nebraska has tried to pivot toward recruiting the Midwest and East Coast, but hasn’t achieved significant traction.

“There’s a little bit of a void in terms of a recruiting home,” he added. “Where are you located?”

When Mike Riley arrived at Nebraska from Oregon State to replace Pelini, he spent time studying “how to recruit for Nebraska in the world of the new conference.” Riley and his staff focused on a 500-mile radius from Lincoln, which included Big Ten hub markets such as Chicago and Minneapolis, but also Kansas City and Denver.

They also prioritized Texas, which Riley had recruited for years while at Oregon State.

“That part of it wasn’t the same because you didn’t have those yearly games down in Texas, where you could sell that to the parents,” Riley said. “The players are so great and there had been a history. But it’s hard to keep that history going when you don’t have that old connection.”

Coaches say Nebraska’s location, its conference and an accelerated recruiting cycle all have magnified obstacles. Nebraska isn’t the easiest campus to access, and most recruits make their college choices before taking official visits.

“They play in the Big Ten at [11 a.m. Central time]. If [a recruit] played on Friday night, how does he get there for kickoff?” a former assistant said. “You’re not flying into Lincoln directly. When you’re in the Big 12, you can recruit Texas and Oklahoma and get kids to come.”

The coach added that recruits based in areas with other Power 5 schools must elect to “fly over everybody” to reach Nebraska. There are recruiting challenges within the Big Ten, too, being located in the least populated of the league’s 11 states.

“You’re not going to out-recruit Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan,” another former assistant said. “You’re not going to out-recruit Michigan State. Minnesota has access to more kids faster because they have a national hub airport. Wisconsin is closer to more population bases.”

Riley, who went 9-4 in 2016, thought his recruiting strategy would pay off with Nebraska’s 2018 class, which initially included commitments from four-star prospects such as wide receiver Joshua Moore and cornerbacks Brendan Radley-Hiles, Mario Goodrich and Chase Williams. All four would decommit — they signed with Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson and USC, respectively — as Nebraska in 2017 endured its worst season (4-8) since 1961, leading to the ousting of athletic director Shawn Eichorst and then Riley.

New hope arrived with Frost, a native Nebraskan and a quarterback for Osborne’s final national championship team in 1997. Frost engineered a historic turnaround at UCF, which went 13-0 with a Peach Bowl victory in 2017, two years after going winless. He also had cut his teeth as an Oregon assistant under Chip Kelly. After spurning Florida to come home to Nebraska, Frost was widely seen as a potential program savior.

Many believed Frost could bridge what worked in the past with what Nebraska needs now, even though he hadn’t recruited the Big Ten region.

Frost has generated some recruiting wins. Nebraska signed ESPN top-25 classes in 2019 and 2020. But the Huskers have logged four consecutive losing seasons and three under Frost (12-20 overall), which seemed to impact the most recent class (39th nationally).

“What draws a kid there?” a former assistant said. “When’s the last time they won a conference championship? No kid in high school has any idea that they ever won.”

Before his time on local Nebraska sports radio, Benning played for Nebraska during the end of the Osborne glory era. He also has closely observed the program’s path ever since.

His conclusion: What Nebraska became from the early 1960s through the 1990s, capitalizing on two Hall of Fame coaches — Osborne and Bob Devaney — and some structural advantages to become a national force, was not sustainable.

“More of a geographic anomaly than built for the long haul as a blue blood,” Benning said. “Nebraska’s got a great fan base, they print money, they’ve got great facilities. They’ve got to evolve with the times. It’s been really hard for me to reconcile that in my head — what they once were versus what they’re capable of being. There’s a real fine line between understanding history and embracing it but not being held captive.

“Nebraska’s still held captive by the success they’ve had. They need to be comfortable in their own skin. They have to have peace with it.”

Nebraska undoubtedly can perform much better in the Big Ten. But part of the path toward future success is acknowledging realistic goals and adjusting to achieve them.

“At a place like Nebraska, you’re not going to beat Ohio State every year,” one source said. “You don’t have the same recruiting base. Iowa’s more of a model at Nebraska than Ohio State is, with where you’re located and where you’re recruiting. You’ve got to be realistic. At some point, you’ve got to not be delusional.”

The philosophical shift remains difficult for some, especially after decades of competing nationally.

“A state of 1.8 million people, where they’re located, and you look at just the West [Division]. Where do you fit with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern or Purdue?” one person said. “They didn’t want to judge themselves against that group. They wanted to judge themselves against Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State. The sky’s falling when you lose to Purdue.

“They have to get self-awareness as to who they are, where they fit.”

Osborne thinks Nebraska still can be distinctive, despite its new reality.

“We don’t have to be a copycat program,” he said. “If you continue to do what everybody else is doing, what the leaders in the league like Ohio State are doing, and you don’t have the same talent level, then it’s not going to work out well.”

The process unquestionably requires more continuity. Between 1962 and 1997, Nebraska had two football coaches and did not have a losing season, winning nine or more games in all but two seasons (1967 and 1968). Since 2002, Nebraska has had five (plus two interim). Pelini and Frank Solich were fired with a combined record of 125-46.

Between 1962 and 2002, the school had three athletic directors. Since 2003, Nebraska has had five (plus three interim).

“That’s not a reputation for stability,” Potuto said. “I’m pretty sure if I was a coach, it wouldn’t be a situation that gives me confidence in what I was doing. I don’t know that moving to the Big Ten Conference triggered any of that. I still think the conference was absolutely the right move.”

Nebraska’s frequent leadership changes stand out in a division where continuity is king. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the FBS (1999), while Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald ranks seventh (2006). Iowa has had the same athletic director (Gary Barta) since 2006. Wisconsin just made its first athletic director hire since 2004, and Northwestern made its first since 2008.

“The West has the poster programs for stability,” said Big Ten Network analyst Gerry DiNardo, the former coach at Indiana, LSU and Vanderbilt. “Iowa, Wisconsin and Northwestern: What other three teams in any division of college football have that kind of stability? The SEC certainly doesn’t. I don’t think the Pac-12 does.”

DiNardo added of Nebraska: “Their identity right now is lack of stability.”

Nebraska’s fluctuation has coincided with improvement around the West Division. Big Ten television revenue has helped every school make facilities upgrades and invest in coaches and staff.

Since 2011, Wisconsin has logged six 10-win seasons and five AP top-13 finishes, while Iowa has posted four AP top-25 finishes in the past six years. Northwestern is enjoying its best post-World War II stretch (three 10-win seasons, two division titles, five AP top-25 finishes). Minnesota recently has posted two of its three highest wins totals — 11 in 2019, nine in 2016 — since 1905.

“That Western part, early on, before we got there, wasn’t really that strong of a division,” Riley said. “Now you look at that division, all those guys are great coaches. Every program has improved. The football gained a top-to-bottom competitiveness.

“It’s not easy to step in [at Nebraska] and say, ‘Let’s win like we did in the old Big Eight.’ It’s quite a chore.”

Nebraska’s Big Ten move affected recruiting and other areas of the program, but how much of the team’s performance is because it changed conferences?

“It’s been a bad thing,” a former assistant said.

Others don’t think the Big Ten factored nearly as much in the program’s downturn.

“Our football program was transitioning before we went to the Big Ten,” Perlman said. “We came off of an extraordinary period of time with an extraordinary head coach, and an environment that was amenable to Nebraska building a great program. We underestimate what a great coach Tom Osborne was. Also, the world has changed. Nebraska’s a small state. We’ve only got 1.8 million people, and with the change in eligibility, the change in number of scholarships, the other things that have impacted our program, I think it’s taken time to adjust.

“That would have happened regardless of what conference we were in.”

Another person described the Big Ten as “the least of their problems,” stressing a need for self-assessment and tackling present-day hurdles, rather than living in the past.

“Their struggles in the Big Ten are exacerbated by the strength of the Big Ten,” a former Big Ten athletic director said. “I think Nebraska could have continued to do a little bit better in the Big 12, but I don’t know if they would have done appreciably better.”

As Nebraska begins its second decade in the Big Ten, those familiar with the first say a refined plan is needed. Before Alberts’ hiring, Benning said the athletic director vacancy represents the school’s most important hire in 15 years, noting that Nebraska “needs to find stability in the message.” Benning and others say Nebraska must stop throwing money at its problems and instead outline a clear philosophy and commit to it.

“It has to be earned,” Alberts said at his introduction last week. “We’ll go to work. We’ve got great people. We can do this. But it isn’t going to be overnight, and it isn’t going to be easy, but we’re really going to focus on the fundamentals and mechanics of how we operate. Attention to detail. Work habits.”

Part of the shift could involve fully embracing Big Ten culture. Nebraska historically hasn’t been a program to bite its tongue, whether about Texas’ increasing influence in the Big 12 or the Big Ten’s initial decision to cancel the fall football season in 2020. Although Ohio State and other programs also voiced displeasure with the Big Ten last summer, Nebraska’s approach drew the most attention (and criticism). Frost floated playing as an independent before the Big Ten officially canceled, and Nebraska’s leadership then issued a joint statement expressing disappointment with the league’s decision. Eight parents of Nebraska players sued the Big Ten over the decision to cancel. When the Big Ten revived the fall season, Moos expressed frustration about a schedule front-loaded with Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin.

Longtime Omaha World-Herald columnist Tom Shatel calls this Nebraska’s “independent spirit,” borne from years in the Big Eight and Big 12. But the Big Ten historically has settled disputes internally and projected unity. A Big Ten coach said of Nebraska, “It’s almost like them against the world, everybody’s out to screw ’em.”

Frost, speaking last month during Nebraska’s Big Red Caravan event, said that while his views haven’t changed, he might not have been so bold in expressing them, saying, “It put the crosshairs on us.”

“You can tell the relationship is strained,” Benning said. “I don’t feel like Nebraska has a really firm seat at the table. It’s twofold: Nebraska has to do a better job of keeping in-house business in-house. When they have these conversations with the conference, they have to find the happy medium between personalizing what’s best for a university and not alienating the conference. It’s been quite the juggling act.”

Nebraska has plenty of work ahead, but a Big Ten breakthrough remains possible. DiNardo, who faced Nebraska in the Big Eight as a Colorado assistant, knows the program’s potential when properly aligned.

“It’s a big jump to go from Big Eight to Big 12 to Big Ten,” he said. “None of those historic, successful programs have gone through what Nebraska’s gone through. But at the end of the day, the right coach and right administration puts them in position to win the Big Ten, which gives them a chance to win nationally.”

Osborne, who helped recruit Frost back to Nebraska, attended several spring practices and likes what he sees: an experienced quarterback (Adrian Martinez), capable wide receivers and an ascending defense. He thinks areas that defined Nebraska’s dynasty, such as the walk-on program, will start paying off more.

“There’s always an ebb and a flow with programs, and we’ve gone through a difficult stretch, but the basics are pretty good,” he said. “We hope we can be long-term Big Ten, and we can be competitive. I don’t have a crystal ball. I can’t predict what’s going to happen five, 10 years from now, but I have a little bit of an idea of what’s going to happen this fall, and I think we’ll be improved.”

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CFP Bubble Watch: Texas is toast, Bama’s on the border

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November 20, 2025

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CFP Bubble Watch: Texas is toast, Bama's on the border

It’s time for Texas to pack up.

The Longhorns plummeted to No. 17 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s third of six rankings, indicating that even if they run the table and punctuate their résumé with a win against No. 3 Texas A&M, they might still be locked out.

Notre Dame, though, should buy some furniture and move in. At No. 9 — ahead of No. 10 Alabama — the selection committee continued to reward the two-loss Irish for how they’re playing — not who they’re beating. No. 10 Alabama has four wins against CFP top-25 opponents, including the committee’s No. 4 team Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Mizzou, which snuck back into the ranking this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked team is against No. 15 USC.

While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is now the flavor of the week in the Group of 5 race after Navy knocked South Florida out of the same spot.

With only three Saturdays remaining before Selection Day, there are still games that can change the picture entirely, which leaves hope for some teams hovering on the bubble (here’s lookin’ at you, Miami).

The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s committee ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Last team in: Alabama. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out of the committee’s top 12, but it put No. 10 Alabama in must-win mode and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. The Tide have only one SEC loss and still have the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71.6%), according to ESPN Analytics.

First team out: Vanderbilt. No. 14 Vandy jumped ahead of the three-loss Longhorns despite the head-to-head loss to Texas, but remains a long shot for the field as an at-large bid. The Commodores would need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee — plus hope there is some chaos above them. Maybe — maybe — if Bama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Miami loses to Pitt, and BYU loses to Cincinnati — it can open the door, but clearly multiple things need to work in their favor.

Still in the mix: None.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

Last team in: Oregon. This could change quickly if Oregon loses at home to USC on Saturday, as there are questions in the room about the Ducks’ No. 31 schedule strength. The Nov. 8 win at Iowa was impressive, but the Hawkeyes are now a four-loss team and dropped out of the top 25. The Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana, which is why their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game are only 12%.

First team out: USC. Like Oregon, USC just boosted its résumé with a gritty, close win against a talented Iowa team that fell out of the ranking with its fourth loss. The Trojans’ two losses were by a total of 12 points to Illinois and Notre Dame — and were both on the road. USC has a critical win against No. 18 Michigan, which boosts its status and gives the Trojans a tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings. If USC can win at Oregon (and avoid an embarrassing home loss to UCLA), the Trojans can unseat the Ducks as the Big Ten’s last team in. They would likely finish behind Notre Dame, though, because of the head-to-head result.

Still in the mix: Michigan. The difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3.6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington — and Michigan runs the table — the Wolverines will have a strong case to be the Big Ten’s third team in. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.

Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin

Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech

Last team in: Texas Tech. At No. 5, the Red Raiders are within arm’s reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance of winning the Big 12 (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week but can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose. The Oct. 18 loss to Arizona State won’t keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how highly the committee has regarded Texas Tech to this point. The chances of that became even better after Arizona State appeared in the ranking at No. 25, easing some of the pain of that loss. The Red Raiders end the regular season at 4-7 West Virginia.

First team out: BYU. The Cougars put it all together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but they would be excluded from the playoff today in order to make room for one of the five highest ranked conference champions. BYU still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can clinch a spot with a win Saturday against Cincinnati and losses by both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock. If BYU loses, though, it would depend on how close the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to reward BYU with an at-large bid if it plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season.

Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 championship, followed by ASU (8.4%) and Cincinnati (1.9%).

Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

ACC

Would be in: Miami

Last team in: Miami. The No. 13 Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game. Until the participants of that game are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear here. With six teams still in contention, the most fair representative is the committee’s. Still, Miami’s best chance at reaching the CFP right now is through an at-large bid because the Canes only have a 7.1% chance to reach the ACC title game. To get that at-large bid, Miami still needs to beat both Virginia Tech and Pitt and hope for losses above it to move into the top 10. The ACC champion will earn the No. 11 seed and the Group of 5 champion will have the No. 12 seed, so Miami needs to jump to No. 10 by Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable if Alabama loses to Auburn, BYU loses to Cincinnati and Utah loses to either K-State or at Kansas. It will take more than one of those things — if not all three. The question will be if the committee ever revisits Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener. The Canes would likely have to creep closer to the Irish in their ranking for them to be comparable enough to use that tiebreaker. Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch with losses by Duke, Pitt and SMU.

First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat a 1-10 Boston College team by two points in spite of themselves and are a win away from a guaranteed appearance in the ACC championship game. They’ve also got a chance to earn a top-5 win in the regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t beat Georgia, it would need to win the ACC to reach the playoff because a three-loss ACC runner-up is out.

Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%).

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, because it is ranked behind Alabama in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule. Alabama has the No. 4 schedule in the country, while the Irish are No. 29. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with only No. 15 USC ranked this week. As long as the Irish end the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their place in the playoff should be secure.

Group of 5

Would be in: Tulane. The Green Wave have decent wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, and the best combination of eye test and résumé of the current contenders. Tulane’s No. 71 schedule strength is better than James Madison (No. 119), North Texas (No. 127) and Navy (No. 74). Tulane and North Texas are the most likely teams to play for the American Conference championship, but North Texas has the best chance to win the league (61.4%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North Texas. Of these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No. 119). Navy has the best win — against South Florida — and the best loss (to Notre Dame), but lost to North Texas.

Bracket

Based on the committee’s third ranking, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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Week 13 preview: Top breakout players, key conference matchups and more

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November 20, 2025

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Week 13 preview: Top breakout players, key conference matchups and more

Nov 20, 2025, 08:00 AM ET

With two weeks left in the regular season, what was once a vague picture of the College Football Playoff is finally coming into view.

Ohio State and Indiana look like sure things from the Big Ten. Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss have all but punched their playoff tickets. Notre Dame and Texas Tech feel good about their odds, but all of that depends on something critical happening these last two weeks that can be boiled down to two simple words: avoid chaos.

Ah, but chaos is certainly possible.

Is Miami a contender? Can the Canes slip into the ACC title game mix?

Is Texas Tech guaranteed a bid? What happens if BYU keeps its stellar season going?

The ACC is ground zero for chaos and everyone from 9-1 Georgia Tech to 5-5 Duke still has a shot at winning the conference.

In the Big Ten, Oregon and USC will face off in what might be a de facto play-in game for the playoff.

And remember last week when Oklahoma earned a statement win against Alabama that appeared to shore up a playoff spot for the Sooners? Well, that dance card is only good as long as Oklahoma beats Missouri this week.

It’s late November, with just enough season behind us to feel as if we’ve got a real understanding of what’s ahead and just enough left on the docket to upend the whole picture and inject a fresh dose of head-spinning into the mix. — David Hale

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Breakout players | BYU-Cincinnati
What’s at stake? | Quotes of the week

Top five breakout players this season

Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss: One of the great plot twists of this college football season has been a little-known transfer from Division II Ferris State stepping in and leading the Rebels to a 10-1 record. Lane Kiffin’s new dual-threat playmaker won a D-II national title last season and has shown no fear in moving up to SEC ball, ranking seventh nationally with 3,101 total yards, 20 total touchdowns and only four turnovers since taking over for injured starter Austin Simmons. The No. 6 Rebels struck gold with Chambliss as well as 1,110-yard rusher Kewan Lacy, a Missouri transfer, in their efforts to reload on offense and get into the CFP.

Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State: Reese entered this season with only five career starts over two seasons with the Buckeyes, eager to finally become a full-time starter for the defending national champions. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound junior is quickly playing his way into projected top-10 draft pick status as one of the most versatile defensive playmakers under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. Reese has produced a team-high 58 tackles with 18 pressures, 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks as a fast, powerful off-ball linebacker who’s just as gifted at rushing off the edge for the No. 1 scoring defense in FBS.

David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech: Bailey didn’t earn All-ACC honors last season at Stanford but was highly coveted in the transfer portal by the Red Raiders as an impact pass rusher with big-time potential. Bailey has been worth every penny, leading the country with 12.5 sacks and 61 pressures through 11 games, while playing alongside Romello Height and Lee Hunter on one of the top defensive lines in the sport. Bailey is performing like a first-round talent for a No. 5-ranked Texas Tech squad determined to win the program’s first Big 12 championship.

Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M: The former Bowling Green transfer had a good debut season with the Aggies in 2024, but Howell has totally raised his game in his second year in the SEC. The 6-2, 248-pound senior has been a consistently elite pass rusher for the undefeated Aggies with 11.5 sacks and 37 pressures, and could end up being a first-round pick next spring.

Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy exceled during his freshman season at UL Monroe and continues to be one of the great transfer portal gets for the Tigers. He’s leading the country with 1,346 rushing yards and 15 TDs, and has forced 72 missed tackles, according to ESPN Research. Hardy just had another career-best day Saturday with a 300-yard effort against Mississippi State after already rushing for 250 yards against Louisiana, plus he has five 100-yard performances this season. — Max Olson

How could BYU-Cincinnati affect the Big 12 title race?

Texas Tech and BYU, the Big 12’s remaining one-loss teams, appear to be on course to meet again in the championship game. For them, it’s simple: win and you’re in. But as BYU learned last season when it was in the same spot through 10 games, simple doesn’t mean easy.

If the Cougars win at Cincinnati on Saturday, it would eliminate the Bearcats. Then BYU would be, at minimum, a win against UCF away from the title game. But the Cougars could also clinch a spot this weekend with two scenarios: 1) A win plus losses by Arizona State (at Colorado) and Houston (vs. TCU); or 2) A win and an Arizona State loss, plus a Utah win (Kansas State).

If BYU loses to Cincinnati, then all bets are off. Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati are all mathematically alive. Which means that all over them can still cling to CFP hopes, as far-fetched as they might be. This is one of the obvious benefits of the playoff format. It keeps more teams relevant later in the season and ensures meaningful games across the board into the final weeks. — Kyle Bonagura

What’s at stake in each matchup?

USC-Oregon: To put it bluntly: a spot in the CFP. That’s what’s at stake in Eugene this week as the college football world sets its eyes on the one marquee matchup this week.

USC has only one Big Ten loss and should it beat the Ducks, it would qualify for not only its best win of the season but one of the best wins in the sport this year. The Trojans have the offense to keep up with the Ducks; the question is, what USC defense will show up Saturday? That will be the key to pulling off the upset and putting Lincoln Riley’s team in the driver’s seat for a CFP spot.

One-loss Oregon might have some more breathing room if it loses to USC, but it’s not a guarantee the Ducks will get in with two losses. At that point, the Ducks’ best win would be at Iowa (currently unranked) and would have to rank behind at least USC (and Michigan if it beats Ohio State) making their entry back into the field a tight one, should it happen.

Plus, not to mention the fact that Oregon finishes with a tricky game at Washington — a team that has been up-and-down this season but has plenty of talent and motivation to play spoiler against its rival. — Paolo Uggetti

Pitt-Georgia Tech: A week ago, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi colorfully made the point that his team could give up 100 points to Notre Dame, but it wouldn’t change the fact that these next two games, starting with Georgia Tech, will define the Panthers’ postseason fate. Well, Pitt didn’t surrender 100, but Notre Dame did win easily, putting an even bigger spotlight on the Panthers’ need to win out if they want any hope of capitalizing on a wide-open ACC.

For Georgia Tech, the stakes are even clearer. This is the Yellow Jackets’ final ACC game of the season. Win, and they’re guaranteed a spot in Charlotte for the ACC championship. Lose and all bets are off. Tech’s defense has been a train wreck the past two games, and getting right against Pitt is essential to keep a magical season going a little longer. — Hale

SMU-Louisville: While much of the attention in the ACC has focused on Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech, SMU still has a shot to make it to the ACC championship game for the second straight season. That is the biggest thing on the line Saturday. With only one conference loss, SMU sits in a four-way tie atop the ACC headed into the weekend. The easiest path to Charlotte is this one: SMU has to win out, and Pitt has to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday. There is another clinching scenario: SMU wins out, and Virginia Tech upsets Virginia next week.

Though the Mustangs do not control their destiny, the fact they are in the mix to play for a conference championship again speaks to the job coach Rhett Lashlee has done since SMU made the move to the ACC in 2024. SMU is not a one-trick pony (see what we did there), but is building a program meant to contend year after year.

“It is a little bit different than last year because we were in control of everything,” Lashlee said. “This year, it’s almost like a playoff scenario already. Nobody’s talking about us, and I’m totally cool with that.” — Andrea Adelson

Quotes of the week

“Brent Key, a great football coach who’s done an outstanding job,” Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi said of Georgia Tech’s fourth-year head coach. “They might as well just announce him as ACC Coach of the Year. He’s done an incredible job. Just give it to him early.”

“I think for us, these are all the same people that thought we were going to suck,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said on the 8-2 Trojans’ Week 13 appearance on College GameDay. “This is all the same people, you know, we were going to do this and USC was this and that. And so for us to pay attention to them now would be a little bit counterproductive. We haven’t forgotten that.”

Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin on if he expects to be coaching in the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl: “Do you know something that I don’t know? Do I expect to coach next week? Why would I not expect to coach next week? I mean, I expected to coach against Florida, too. So I don’t even understand the question about how I would not expect to coach next week. Why would I [not] be at work?”

“I’ve had no discussions, not with my agent, not with the university, not with any other school, not with any NFL team, about ever going anywhere else,” said Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who knocked down rumors around a potential departure this week. “I came here to win championships.”

Colorado’s Deion Sanders appealed for more time with the Buffaloes this week: “You’ve got the right man [for the job]. I promise you, you do. And I’m going to prove that to you. Just give me an opportunity and a little more time, and I’m going to prove that to you.”

“Does it look, feel, smell and operate like a big-time program?” James Franklin said of his plans for Virginia Tech in his introductory news conference with the Hokies. “All those things need to be in place. … I think the previous coaches here were in some challenging situations. That’s the truth of it. There’s some things that we’re going to have to look at, and it’s not just James Franklin. It’s the marketing office, the ticketing office. Everybody’s got to take some time and look in the mirror and say, ‘Are we operating like a big-time program?'”

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‘You don’t want to have the same drip’: How a Houston Christian receiver became a shoe artist to the stars

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November 20, 2025

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'You don't want to have the same drip': How a Houston Christian receiver became a shoe artist to the stars

  • Max OlsonNov 20, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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    • Covers the Big 12
    • Joined ESPN in 2012
    • Graduate of the University of Nebraska

After Texas A&M‘s season-opening win over UTSA in August, Deacon Stanfield made his way down to a tunnel at Kyle Field. KC Concepcion met him there.

The Aggies’ new star receiver was looking to do a handoff. He passed two pairs of his team-issued Adidas cleats to Stanfield. In exchange, the artist promised he would hook him up with more of his finest work.

Custom cleats are a burgeoning business in the era of name, image and likeness, as college football players invest their own money into upgrading their in-game attire. When Concepcion and his Aggie teammates Rueben Owens II, Terry Bussey and Will Lee III are looking for something unique during their 10-0 start, they hit up their shoe guy in Houston.

“That’s the whole thing: You don’t want to look like everyone else, right?” Stanfield said. “You don’t want to have the same drip as the guy next to you.”

Stanfield has worked with Travis Hunter, Ryan Williams and Jeremiah Smith. He’s painted cleats worn by pros such as Travis Etienne Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Carlos Correa. He’s even painted custom Nikes for Caitlin Clark. He’s been customizing shoes for six years — and he just turned 20. What started as a high school hobby has evolved into a successful side hustle. When he’s not spray-painting kicks, he’s playing wide receiver and taking classes at Houston Christian. His teammates at HCU call him “The Cobbler.” Stanfield tries to slow down orders in the fall to focus on being an FCS student-athlete, but he’ll make exceptions when high-profile athletes pop up in his Instagram DMs.

He started this passion in 2019. His art teacher in junior high assigned the class to paint something on an unconventional canvas, so Stanfield tried a pair of shoes. As he watched more tutorial videos on YouTube about the customizing process, he wanted to keep learning and saved up to buy an airbrush and compressor.

“A lot of it was self-taught,” Stanfield said. “I just started, and I ruined so many shoes in the process, just messing with my own shoes.”

His father, Dusty, works in athlete marketing and helped get this hobby kick started with his connections. Deacon painted custom creations for NFL players Trayveon Williams and Case Keenum in 2020, but his first pair that garnered attention were “Duck Hunt”-themed Nike cleats for Hunter Renfrow, a pixelated tribute to the classic NES video game.

“I think with phones and devices taking up so much of their free time, it seems like kids these days are kind of delayed in finding their passion and finding what they really want to do,” Dusty Stanfield said. “So for him to figure that out, it’s something as a parent that’s very fulfilling to see.”

Deacon got opportunities to customize cleats for Etienne and several NFL players as part of the league’s “My Cause My Cleats” campaign. He has also partnered with Panini, which has flown him in for Super Bowl week each of the past three years to create custom cleats for pro athletes at their hospitality suite. Every shoe helps as Stanfield tries to grow his brand and business.

He put on a brave face in a surreal setting for a teen, joking that his “whole body was shaking” as he handed custom Nike sneakers to Eli Manning before this year’s Super Bowl in New Orleans. But nothing compared to the nerves of prepping a pair of Nike Blazer Mid ’77 for Clark to commemorate her Rookie of the Year season with the Indiana Fever.

“She is literally the definition of aura,” Stanfield said. “When she walked in, it felt like the entire room stopped talking and looked at her. When she opened them, she looked over at me and was like, ‘These are so cool. Did you make these?’ It was definitely one of the coolest experiences of my life.”

This is an enterprise that wouldn’t have been possible before the NIL era arrived and modernized college athletics in 2021. It’s run by an active college athlete and supported by athletes who finally have disposable income to spend. Stanfield’s timing couldn’t have been better. And this fall, the Aggies are keeping him busy.

Stanfield did custom sets of maroon, black and white cleats for Bussey and former A&M quarterback Conner Weigman last year and was quickly deluged with more orders. He came up with black Louis Vuitton-themed cleats for linebacker Taurean York and green camouflage cleats for Weigman.

Now he’s producing new shoes for Concepcion, the SEC’s third-leading receiver, every game this season. First it was black cleats with Chrome Hearts brand crosses and then gray Louis Vuitton cleats for the road win at Notre Dame. Stanfield got especially creative for the Aggies’ throwback uniform against Florida, painting an A-10 ‘Warthog’ shark mouth on gold cleats for Concepcion.

It’s not easy to run an airbrush-heavy business out of his Houston Christian dorm room, so Stanfield makes the 30-minute drive home to Fulshear, Texas, on Thursdays, his day off from football, to get his custom orders done out of his garage workspace.

Last Thursday, he put in another marathon session in his workshop customizing four pairs of cleats over 11 hours. Concepcion, Owens, Bussey and Lee got them back just in time to wear them for the No. 3 Aggies’ comeback win over South Carolina.

“I think it’s super cool that Coach [Mike] Elko is relaxed about that,” Stanfield said. “Some coaches won’t let their players wear anything other than black or white.”

HCU coaches have been no less supportive of Stanfield’s entrepreneurship ever since he joined the program last year. The 6-foot, 160-pound scholarship receiver is on the Huskies’ two-deep and travel squad this season and has played six games as a redshirt freshman.

He’s learned how to design mock-ups on his tablet or phone because the prep phase for customizing a shoe can be lengthy.

Stanfield starts by sanding down the shoe’s exterior and wiping it with acetone to strip the original factory finish, taping the soles and areas he won’t paint. Typically, he says, this can take up to two hours — if you’re doing it right.

Once he’s working with a clean canvas, it’s time to airbrush several layers of acrylic leather paint while often incorporating stencils. Stanfield has been doing this long enough that he can mix paint and make Aggie maroon by eyeballing it. After he’s done hand-painting and carefully detailing, the shoes get sprayed with a protective matte finish.

Stanfield can scroll through his camera roll and point to hundreds of cleats and shoes he’s customized, but nothing has gone viral such as the pair he customized for Alabama‘s Ryan Williams last season. Williams ordered a custom pair from him during his senior year of high school and asked for another with his “Hollywood” nickname painted across Nikes last season. After Williams’ breakout performance to beat Georgia, Stanfield did one more for him. Williams gave him creative license to paint whatever he liked.

Stanfield hand-painted a portrait of Williams with red braids over black Nikes. He even recreated the “SC Top 10” chain with gold and silver rhinestones. The pair took him at least 10 hours over several days to produce as he carefully painted the portrait, placed the stones and perfected the details.

Stanfield shared the shoes on his Instagram account, and Williams reposted them after Stanfield had gone to bed. Stanfield’s jaw dropped the next day when SportsCenter’s Instagram account shared his work with the world, in a post that got more than 113,000 likes.

Stanfield typically charges between $100 and $350 for these custom jobs depending on the difficulty.

Some players ship him their team-issued shoes. Others ask him to find a particular pair and add it to the bill. He’s not charging as much as many of the more established creators in this niche industry, mostly because he wants to stay affordable for high school and college athletes.

Keisean Henderson, ESPN’s No. 1 ranked quarterback recruit in the 2026 class, has ordered plenty from Stanfield, including a pair this offseason with his favorite Davy Crockett racoon-skin cap painted on the sides. The Houston commit collaborated with him again this summer on a black Louis Vuitton-style pair covered in UH emojis.

“He is one of one,” Henderson told ESPN. “He can take a thought from your mind and make it reality.”

This is how Stanfield is trying to get his foot in the door in a competitive business by connecting with the next big stars before they blow up. Stanfield did three pairs of custom cleats for Ohio State superstar Jeremiah Smith during his 7-on-7 days with South Florida Express. He would love to work with Smith again, but the Buckeyes don’t wear custom cleats during games.

Some connections endure for years and some pop up in an instant with an unexpected DM. Last summer, he was scrolling through his message requests on Instagram and spotted one from Leanna De La Fuente. She was inquiring about pricing and was looking to surprise her fiancé. When he clicked on her profile and realized she was referring to Hunter, he was astonished and immediately replied.

Stanfield shipped custom black cleats that featured Hunter’s Instagram handle. De La Fuente sent him a thank you video from the two-way star, who promised he would wear them for a game. The artist waited all season, wondering when Colorado‘s Heisman Trophy winner might break them out. Hunter saved the pair for his finale with the Buffaloes in the Alamo Bowl against BYU.

College players who can afford customs are typically wearing them for only one game to complement a specific uniform combination, while high schoolers tend to wear them all season. Henderson, the No. 4 recruit in this year’s SC Next 300, said he currently has four pairs of customs from Stanfield with more to come.

“You can stand out and express yourself without saying words,” Henderson said. “The game of football is made for you to stay in uniform. When I see the opportunity to make it my own, I try my best to showcase how I feel from my cleats.”

Back at Houston Christian, Stanfield tries his best to juggle all his responsibilities. He wore his own work, a pair of orange Louis Vuitton cleats, throughout spring and fall practice with the Huskies. Bachtel credits offensive coordinator Mike Besbitt for starting “The Cobbler” nickname in the spring, and it stuck with teammates. He’s done color swap customs for a few of them, but they know he’s already plenty busy at this time of year. The head coach would like a pair someday, too.

“I told him, ‘Look, I’m not as flashy as you. I don’t need all the Louis Vuitton and all that,'” Bachtel joked. “Just give me something we can wear in recruiting and maybe on the sidelines.”

As much as he would like to someday go full time in shoe customizing, Stanfield says he’s loving his experience in college football and not looking to fast-forward past it. Everybody tells him he’ll miss it when it’s over, so he’s trying to enjoy it. He’ll be back open for business in the offseason and eager to see what creative requests come next.

“I’ve never really thought of it as time-consuming,” Stanfield said, “because it’s a job that doesn’t feel like a job.”

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