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A Tesla earnings call is always a fun experience. More often than not, Elon lets some little tidbit slip that wasn’t part of the script, much to the delight of the audience and consternation of the company’s lawyers. We know there will be talk of deliveries and gross margins and earnings before interest and taxes. GAAP and non-GAAP figures will be thrown around and a few questions will be asked from the steely eyed financial analysts on the call.

The big question on many people’s mind is, will the price of Tesla shares rise or fall as a result? The stock is down about a third from its all-time high in January. Will Elon deliver the goods to make it go back up? For many who are not shareholders, it’s just fun and useful to see how the Tesla story is unfolding. Here are a few topics that may tell the tale.

Editor’s note: Be sure to check in later on YouTube to watch our live coverage of the conference call, which includes all sorts of goodies.

China

Tesla has placed a huge bet on the Chinese market for electric cars, selecting Shanghai for its first new factory. But then there seemed to have been some bumps in the road for Tesla in that country this year. Or not.

First came news that Teslas had been banned from Chinese military installations because their cameras could inadvertently capture classified information. Then there were reports that sales were down significantly, something my colleague Johnna Crider exposed as false a few days ago. Then there was a minor recall for Chinese made Teslas that was a tempest in a teapot.

“The China growth story is the top of the list for Tesla,” Dan Ives, tech analyst with Wedbush Securities, tells CNN Business. “This is their key market. We believe 40% of their sales will come from there next year. I think that’s the linchpin to the stock going up or down.”

Regulatory Credits

One of the constant complaints about Tesla is that it makes more money selling zero-emission credits to other manufacturers than it does selling cars. If its net income for the second quarter exceeds those credits, that will be a significant milestone for the company. “That would throw one of the core bear arguments against the stock out the window,” Dan Ives says. The consensus estimate is that Tesla will report net income of more than $600 million. In the first quarter, it made $518 million from selling credits.

Bitcoin

In February, Tesla said it had purchased $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and would allow customers to pay for their cars using the digital currency. In April, the company announced it had netted $101 million from its Bitcoin transactions. The value of digital currencies can fluctuate wildly over short periods of time, which makes professional investors nervous.

For a while, Tesla stopped accepting Bitcoin payments, saying the platform used too much electrical power from fossil fuel sources. But now Elon says Bitcoin may soon be welcome again. Once again, Ives thinks dabbling in Bitcoin is a negative sign that worries investors, much like twisting the tail of the SEC or sparking up a phattie with Joe Rogen. Expect more on this topic to surface during the Q2 earnings call.

Supply Chain Concerns

It’s common knowledge that automakers around the world are struggling to manage a shortage of computer chips, the tiny devices that manage everything from blind spot detection to stability control and adaptive cruise control systems. Tesla is no exception. In addition, demand for lithium, nickel, and other raw materials to manufacture batteries is soaring as more and more manufacturers join the EV revolution. Analysts will be looking for information about how Tesla is managing its supply chains to control costs.

Gigafactories

Tesla is moving full speed ahead to bring its two newest factories in Germany and Austin online while expanding its production facility in Shanghai to produce the Model Y. That’s a lot for any company to manage. It says both Germany and Austin will begin producing automobiles this year before transitioning to full production early next year. Investors will be anxiously awaiting updates on both new factories during the Q2 earnings call.

The Cybertruck

In March, Elon tweeted that there would likely be an update about the Cybertruck during the Q2 earnings call, so we will be paying close attention to any news on that front. Last week we reported that Musk is unconcerned about whether his unconventional electric pickup truck will be a sales hit, saying he likes it even if no one else does. (You either love it or hate it.)

With GM, Ford, and now Dodge saying they will have electric pickup trucks of their own soon, and the Rivian R1T set to debut in a few months, it will be interesting to see whether Americans will be able to tear themselves away from the traditional looking trucks they love or whether Tesla will trim its sails to make the Cybertruck more appealing to mainstream truck buyers.

The Supercharger Network

Last week, Musk tweeted, “We’re making our Supercharger network open to other EVs later this year.” Investors will be expecting to learn more about that announcement. Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a research note afterward, “By 2030, we conservatively estimate Tesla supercharging revenue of $2.9 billion, a figure which does not include any revenue from non-Tesla vehicles.” How much revenue could Tesla get from drivers of non-Tesla electric cars? That’s a question that is sure to be raised.

FSD

Another recent development is an announcement from Tesla that it will soon offer its “Full Self Driving” package on a subscription basis. This could be the biggest marketing bonanza since Coca-Cola decided to sell its elixir in bottles. Decades ago, the auto industry found out that leasing could unlock a torrent of new sales. Perhaps subscription services will have a similar impact on revenue. Lots of people might subscribe to a FSD package who would otherwise balk at spending $10,000 for it up front. People will want to hear more about this.

There will also likely be requests for more info on when the FSD V9 Beta will roll out to all Americans who paid for FSD. The last we heard, the answer was ~2 weeks — but that’s been the answer for ~7 months (if not more).

Tesla Semi

With everything else going on at Tesla, it’s easy to overlook the Tesla Semi that has been gestating for a few years now. Production should be beginning soon and investors will be hungry for details.

Energy Storage

The jury is still out on whether Tesla’s acquisition of SolarCity was a brilliant marketing move that fit perfectly with Tesla’s mission or naked nepotism designed to bail out two of Elon’s cousins (as some people suing Mr. Musk argue), but there is no question Tesla is one of the global leaders in grid-scale energy storage. Elon himself has said he expects energy storage will create as much revenue as Tesla’s car business. This whole topic is usually found somewhere toward the end of the official earnings report, but it is really the key to whether Tesla shares will become more attractive to investors in the short and medium term.

Check back later to see how many topics we guessed right about and which ones came up that we didn’t anticipate. We’re not perfect, but we’re usually pretty darn close about these things.


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You can lease a Toyota bZ4X for next to nothing right now

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You can lease a Toyota bZ4X for next to nothing right now

Toyota is now leasing its one all-electric car, the bZ4X, for just $129/mo and $2k down.

Toyota has been dipping its toe into the EV water, mostly focusing on hybrids rather than electric cars.

Its first EV, the bZ4X, hasn’t been a huge success, perhaps due to focus on hybrids. It also faced a rocky launch with an early recall, though that has all been sorted out by now.

So in a market with lots of great EVs, the bZ4X hasn’t attracted a whole lot of attention.

Last quarter, Toyota only sold 1,897 copies of the bZ4X in the US, a 9% increase over the previous year but only accounting for .4% of Toyota’s total US sales, and much less than the number of EV sales from much smaller companies.

As a result, Toyota has resorted to deep discounts on its electric crossover, making it one of the cheapest cars you can lease right now.

The steepest deal is on last year’s 2023 bZ4X base “XLE” trim, which is available for just $129/mo with $1,999 due at signing, at least here in Southern California. We also saw a deal for $119/mo and $4k down in New York. This is by far the lowest monthly price we’ve seen for the bZ4X yet, and one of the lowest we’ve seen for any EV – not just now, but ever.

The lease deal in question has a limit of 12,000 miles per year, close to the average mileage for a US driver, and a little more than the ~10,000 mile limits that are common on a lot of leases. This specific offer expires April 30th, though something similar could be extended after the month ends.

The 2024 model is just $169/mo (and $2k down), still a low price though not as eye-wateringly low as the 2023 model. Toyota made relatively minor changes for the 2024 model, including a mobile L1/L2 charging cord and standard power liftgate and 8-way power driver’s seat, along with some software changes.

Both of these are extremely low lease prices for a car with suggested retail price of $44,845 (2024 model). For example, a RAV4 LE is $369/mo with $3k down, much more than the bZ4X lease price despite that car being ~$15k cheaper than the bZ4X.

Part of the reason for these lease offers is due to the Inflation Reduction Act’s EV tax credit, which is also available (and in fact, even easier to get) on a lease. In this case, the automaker files for the credit and offers lower lease payments to the customer.

But that doesn’t cover all of the discount – the lease deal accounts for a whopping $16,250 in cash from Toyota ($17,750 on the 2023 model).

If you find this deal appealing, you can use our affiliate link to contact local dealers and see if they have this lease deal near you.

Electrek’s Take

This is certainly getting down into the “insane deal” category, even with my general distaste for how Toyota has managed the EV transition.

It reminds me somewhat of the deals on the original Fiat 500e back in 2015 or so. At the time, Fiat’s CEO, Sergio Marchionne was one of the loudest voices against electrification. He famously admitted admitted that the 500e was a compliance car (by claiming that Fiat loses money on every sale – thus suggesting that Fiat only sold them because California said so), but Fiat also leased the 500e for just $69/mo at the time.

A lot of Californians, even those who already had nice cars, decided that having a cheap runaround with extremely low fueling costs would be worthwhile, and snatched one up. Given that $69/mo is less than half of what the average Californian driver would spend on gas per month, these cars were basically free.

Now we have a similar situation with Toyota, a company that is quite openly anti-EV, but which is offering one of the cheapest EV deals we’ve seen.

I can’t say I love the bZ4X – it’s pretty middling in terms of specs, and while I’ve only driven it for a short time, it didn’t really do much to thrill me right out of the gates. I liked its cousin the Lexus RZ better, but still, neither would go anywhere near my list of top EVs.

But if your goal is to get a car with Toyota quality, aren’t particularly planning on road-tripping (one thing the bZ4X does poorly at is quick-charging performance, especially on roadtrips), and are a fan of getting good deals, well, the bZ4X might be for you right now.

If you’d like, you can use our affiliate link to contact your local dealers about the 2023 or 2024 Toyota bZ4X, and see what kind of lease deals are available in your area. Deal is subject to availability and participation, so contact your local dealer if you’re interested in a cheap bZ4X.

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Global EV sales are ‘robust’ – more than 1 in 5 cars sold in 2024 will be electric

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Global EV sales are 'robust' – more than 1 in 5 cars sold in 2024 will be electric

More than 1 in 5 cars sold globally this year is expected to be electric, with surging demand projected over the next decade, says a new International Energy Agency (IEA) report.

Rising EV sales are set to remake the global auto industry and significantly reduce oil consumption for road transport, according to the new edition of the IEA’s annual Global EV Outlook, released today. 

The latest IEA Outlook report asserts that global EV sales are set to remain “robust” in 2024, reaching around 17 million by the end of the year. In Q1, sales grew by about 25% year-over-year – similar to the growth rate seen in the same period a year earlier but from a larger base. The number of EVs sold globally in Q1 2024 is roughly equivalent to that in all of 2020. 

In 2024, electric car sales in China are projected to jump to about 10 million, accounting for about  45% of all car sales in the country. In the US, roughly 1 in 9 cars sold are projected to be electric. In Europe, despite a generally weak outlook for passenger car sales and the phase-out of EV subsidies in some countries, EVs are still set to represent about 1 in 4 cars sold.

This growth builds on a record-breaking 2023. Last year, global electric car sales soared by 35% to  almost 14 million. While demand remained largely concentrated in China, Europe, and the US, growth also picked up in some emerging markets such as Vietnam and Thailand, where electric cars accounted for 15% and 10%, respectively, of all cars sold.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol said:

The continued momentum behind electric cars is clear in our data, although it is stronger in some markets than others. Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth.

The wave of investment in battery manufacturing suggests the EV supply chain is advancing to meet automakers’ ambitious plans for expansion. As a result, the share of EVs on the roads is expected to continue to climb rapidly. Based on today’s policy settings alone, almost 1 in 3 cars on the roads in China by 2030 is set to be electric, and almost 1 in 5 in both the United States and European Union.

This shift will have major ramifications for both the auto industry and the energy sector.

In China, more than 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already less expensive to buy than gas cars. In the US and Europe, the gas cars’ prices remained cheaper on average, though intensifying market competition and improving battery technologies are expected to reduce prices in the coming years. Growing electric car exports from Chinese automakers, which accounted for more than half of all electric car sales in 2023, could add to downward pressure on purchase prices.

According to the IEA’s report, ensuring that the availability of public charging keeps pace with EV sales is crucial for continued growth. The number of public charging points installed globally was up 40% in 2023 relative to 2022, and DC fast charger growth outpaced that of Level 1 and 2 chargers.

However, to meet a level of EV deployment in line with the pledges made by governments, the IEA says charging networks need to grow sixfold by 2035. At the same time, policy support and careful planning are essential to make sure greater demand for electricity from charging doesn’t overstretch grids.

Read more: These are the best-selling used EVs – and what’s being traded in for them


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Rivian is offering discounts up to $5k off a new R1 when you trade in your dusty old gas vehicle

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Rivian is offering discounts up to k off a new R1 when you trade in your dusty old gas vehicle

In honor of Earth Day, Rivian has introduced a new “Electric Upgrade” offer, where new customers can take advantage of varying discounts on an R1S or R1T EV for trading in certain combustion models. There are other terms to qualify; learn more below.

Take advantage of big Rivian discounts, now through June

According to Rivian, it has introduced a new demand lever today that offers discounts to new qualifying purchasers/lessees who take delivery of a new R1 EV before June 30, 2024. In addition to gaining a discount on an R1 purchase or lease, as outlined below, customers can also qualify for one year of complementary charging on the Rivian Adventure Network (RAN).

Here’s how the discounts break down for R1 customers in the US and Canada:

  • R1T Standard, Standard+ Pack – $3,000 / $4,500 CAD 
  • R1T Large Pack – $4,000 / $6,000 CAD 
  • R1T Max Pack – $5,000 / $7,500 CAD 
  • R1S Large Pack – $1,000 / $1,500 CAD 

Additional terms per Rivian:

Any Rivian vehicle model and pack combination not listed above is ineligible for this offer.  Eligible Rivian vehicle configurations must be selected and purchased or leased through Rivian’s online Shop.  $1,000 non-refundable deposit is required to reserve your configuration through Shop.  Discount will be applied as part of your Rivian R1 vehicle transaction

Rivian points out that in order for R1 purchasers/lessees to qualify for the discounts above, they must trade in a combustion vehicle, but not just any gas car. It has to be one of the following

  • Audi:
    • Q5, Q7, Q8 – 2018 or newer
  • BMW:
    • X3, X5, X7 – 2018 or newer
  • Ford:
    • F-150, Explorer, Expedition, Bronco (excluding Bronco Sport) – 2018 or newer
  • Jeep:
    • Grand Cherokee, Wrangler, Gladiator – 2018 or newer
  • Toyota:
    • Tacoma, Tundra, Highlander, 4Runner – 2018 or newer

This is a savvy move by Rivian as it is not only getting combustion vehicles off roads and replacing them with R1 EVs, but also taking in gas versions of some of its competitors. The offer is limited to one Rivian discount and one year of complimentary charging per eligible combustion vehicle trade-in.

Qualifying purchasers/lessees must take their R1 delivery between April 22, 2024 and June 30, 2024. Learn more here.

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