An oil pump jack operates at the Inglewood Oil Field in Culver City, California, U.S., on Sunday, July 11, 2021.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images
LONDON — Oil and gas majors are likely to report bumper second-quarter earnings in the coming days, energy analysts have told CNBC, following a brutal 12 months by virtually every measure.
The expected upswing would build on a surprisingly strong showing in the first quarter and lend further support to the oil and gas industry’s efforts to pay down debt and reward investors.
“Europe’s integrated oil sector already enjoyed surprisingly strong earnings in 1Q, but 2Q is set to show further improvement as commodity prices took another step up,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a research note.
International benchmark Brent crude futures rose to an average of $69 a barrel in the second quarter, the Wall Street bank said, up from an average of $61 in the first three months of the year. The oil contract was last seen trading at around $73.57.
Oil companies that ignore climate in their earnings calls will be seen as laggards. Long-term investors will conclude they are financially risky.
Kathy Hipple
Finance professor at Bard College
Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that energy major share prices continue to be anchored by their dividend distributions. Notwithstanding substantial increases to free cash flow forecasts, the bank said Big Oil dividend expectations remain “rather static.”
“The energy transition confronts investors with much uncertainty, and the sector’s capital allocation track record has been mixed at best over the last decade. Hence, investors are only valuing the cash flow paid to them, with little credit given for cash flow retained within companies,” they said.
“As the dividend outlook has not improved much, and dividend yields in aggregate are already low by historical standards, share prices have trailed the earnings outlook considerably.”
In Europe, Royal Dutch Shell and TotalEnergies will report second-quarter earnings on July 29, with BP scheduled to follow on Aug. 3. Stateside, ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to publish their latest figures on July 30, while ConocoPhillips will report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 3.
Fuel prices on a sign at a BP gas station in Louisville, Kentucky, on Friday, Jan. 29, 2021.
Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Rene Santos, manager for North America supply at S&P Global Platts Analytics, told CNBC via email that he expects second-quarter earnings from U.S.-based energy companies to be “significantly higher” when compared to the same period in 2020.
This is “mainly due to much higher oil prices,” he added. “In addition, the majors, large and mid-cap companies have kept capital discipline and have continued to focus on paying down debt and increasing free cash flow instead of increasing activity [drilling and completion] despite higher oil prices.”
Santos said S&P Global Platts Analytics also foresee an increase in the reporting of ESG activity, noting that it “looks like pressure from environmental groups and fear of more regulations from the current administration is persuading many companies to do more to decrease emissions.”
Growing climate risk
The oil and gas industry was sent into a tailspin last year as the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic fuel demand shock, plunging commodity prices, unprecedented write-downs and tens of thousands of job cuts. The torrent of bad news prompted the head of the International Energy Agency to suggest it may come to represent the worst year in the history of oil markets.
Oil prices have since rebounded to multi-year highs and all three of the world’s main forecasting agencies — OPEC, the IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration — now expect a demand-led recovery to pick up speed in the second half of 2021.
Clark Williams-Derry, energy finance analyst at IEEFA, a non-profit organization, said he expects oil and gas companies to try to claim a clean bill of health after a bumper second quarter. “That’s the mantra that we will hear,” he told CNBC via telephone.
However, while energy majors will likely have had the opportunity to pay down some debt after generating a significant chunk of cash from their operations, Williams-Derry said that this hides the fact that these companies have not invested much in future production.
Members of the environmental group MilieuDefensie celebrate the verdict of the Dutch environmental organisation’s case against Royal Dutch Shell Plc, outside the Palace of Justice courthouse in The Hague, Netherlands, on Wednesday, May 26, 2021. Shell was ordered by a Dutch court to slash its emissions harder and faster than planned, dealing a blow to the oil giant that could have far reaching consequences for the rest of the global fossil fuel industry.
Peter Boer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“What I think the market is starting to signal is that it kind of likes when the oil companies shrink and aren’t going all out into new production but they are using the cash that their operations are generating to pay down debt and reward investors.”
Longer term, Williams-Derry warned there’s a “tremendous degree” of investor skepticism about the business models of oil and gas firms, citing the deepening climate crisis and the urgent need to pivot away from fossil fuels.
“We saw earlier in the year signs of a sea change in investor thinking about, frankly, the legal status of some of the supermajors,” he said, referring to a series of landmark courtroom and boardroom defeats for the likes of Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron.
“So, even if you are riding high for a quarter or two when prices are high, the reality is still that stock prices are way below the market as a whole and there’s just not the investor enthusiasm for the old business model that I think these companies probably expected to see,” he said.
Energy transition
Kathy Hipple, finance professor at Bard College in New York, told CNBC via email that she believes two key themes are likely to emerge this earnings season: Addressing investor concerns around climate risk and the outlining of new business models to survive a pivot toward renewables.
“Investors are future-oriented and will look past a short-term pop in earnings compared to last year’s dismal second-quarter results,” Hipple said. “They want to see concrete business strategies that acknowledge the energy transition that is gathering speed.”
“Oil companies that ignore climate in their earnings calls will be seen as laggards. Long-term investors will conclude they are financially risky,” Hipple said.
Tesla’s AI and robotics divisions are facing a significant “brain drain” as a stealth startup called Sunday Robotics emerges with a roster of engineers from Tesla’s Optimus and Autopilot teams.
We are used to seeing Tesla executives leave, especially to other AI giants, as the competition ramps up and large compensation packages are being thrown around left and right.
However, this feels different. Sunday Robotics isn’t a Fortune 500 company poaching Tesla engineers with big packages. It is a tiny startup that just came out of stealth with a funding round that would be a rounding error in Tesla’s financials.
Sunday Robotics officially emerged from stealth today, announcing $35 million in funding led by Benchmark and Conviction.
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The startup, founded by Stanford roboticists Tony Zhao and Cheng Chi (Zhao previously interned at Tesla Autopilot), has recruited an impressive bunch of senior Tesla engineering leadership.
The list of departures includes:
Nishant Desai: an almost 5-year veteran at Tesla’s machine learning team working on Autopilot and FSD.
Nadeesha Amarasinghe: The former Engineering Lead for AI Infrastructure at Tesla. He was responsible for the massive backend systems that train FSD and Optimus. He was at Tesla for moer than 7 years.
Perry Jia: A key engineer on the Optimus and Autopilot programs. He spent almost 6 years at Tesla and led the data engine programs. Now, he leads Data Operations at Sunday.
This isn’t just random attrition. Sunday Robotics has effectively poached a “full stack” of robotic and AI engineers from Tesla.
They also recruited other employees from Tesla, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see more join, as Jason Peterson, a talent recruiter for Tesla’s Optimus and Robotaxi programs, confirmed that he also left Tesla in September to join Sunday.
What is Sunday Robotics?
So, what are these engineers leaving Tesla to build?
Sunday Robotics is taking a different path than Tesla’s general-purpose humanoid. Their debut robot, Memo, is a wheeled domestic robot designed for household chores such as cleaning dishes and folding laundry.
By ditching the legs (Optimus is bipedal), Sunday claims they can focus entirely on dexterity and reliability. The robot is trained on a massive dataset of 10 million behavioral episodes, which the company claims gives it a “ChatGPT moment” for physical movement.
The most interesting technical divergence from Tesla is how Sunday collects data.
Tesla relies heavily on VR teleoperation suits to train Optimus. Operators wear motion-capture suits and mimic tasks in a lab. It’s high-fidelity, but it’s slow and expensive. Tesla now claims to also train just on video.
Sunday Robotics has a different approach this with a $200 ‘Skill Capture Glove’. They distributed these gloves to hundreds of ordinary people (“Memory Developers”) who recorded themselves doing chores in their own messy homes.
This allowed Sunday to crowdsource 10 million episodes of real-world data, messy kitchens, weird lighting, and cats jumping on counters at a fraction of the cost of Tesla’s teleoperation labs.
The gloves also reflect Memo’s much less complicated hands, which can make them more reliable and cheaper.
Electrek’s Take
Elon Musk is telling anyone willing to listen that Tesla is ahead of the competition when it comes to “real-world AI” and robotics.
He claims that Tesla will start producing Optimus robots in the millions of units starting next year and it will eventually “end poverty.”
Not many people who are serious about robotics take these claims seriously.
Many other companies are developing humanoid robots, and Tesla shows no evidence of being ahead of the pack, while there are still many obstacles to make them useful at scale.
A company like Sunday has a less ambitious but more realistic approach that could pay off, and it is convincing some Tesla engineers to jump ship.
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Cordelio Power’s 135 MW Crossover Wind farm is officially up and running in Cross County, Arkansas, west of Memphis, Tennessee. It is now officially the first operating wind farm in Arkansas.
“We are proud to announce that Crossover Wind is now generating electricity as the first utility-scale wind project in the state of Arkansas,” said Nick Karambelas, Cordelio Power’s chief development officer.
The project will deliver 100% of its power to Microsoft under a 20-year power purchase agreement. Independent power producer Cordelio says Crossover will pay about $950,000 a year to Cross County and more than $50 million to local landowners over the project’s lifetime without disrupting farming practices.
“We’re especially thankful for the strong collaboration from Cross County officials, landowners, and the broader community, which has been instrumental in bringing this project to life,” Karambelas added.
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M.A. Mortenson handled the construction, and Vestas supplied 32 US-made V-163 4.5 MW turbines. Vestas will also handle long-term operations and maintenance.
Cordelio acquired the project in late 2023 from Steelhead Americas, Vestas’ North American development arm, which started development in 2020.
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Anker’s 4-day SOLIX Black Friday flash sale drops latest C2000 gen 2 power station to new $679 low ($820 off)
As part of its expanded Black Friday Sale, Anker SOLIX is offering 4-day flash savings on four different bundles, three of which are keeping the same low prices while switching up the FREE gear you’ll be getting with them, while one is actually dropping costs lower than before. That latter deal mentioned is on Anker’s new SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 Portable Power Station for $679.15 shipped, which also matches in price at Amazon. It’s been carrying a $1,499 price tag since launching at the end of October, with the discounts we’ve seen in its short time on the market having dropped costs to $799 and $749, until the brand’s Black Friday event first brought things lower to $699. Now, you can score it at an even better price, with $820 cut from the tag for a new all-time low rate. Head below for more on this unit and the others benefiting from this flash sale.
Not only does Anker’s SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 power station come as an upgrade from the legacy F2000 unit, but right now it’s even beating out that older model’s price by $120, making this deal all the better. This new model comes more compact and lighter than before with a starting 2,048Wh LiFePO4 battery capacity that can expand up to 4,096Wh with an expansion battery (which you can find bundled on the station’s landing page). There are 11 ports to choose from for your needs (5x AC, 3x USB-C, and solo TT-30R, USB-A, and car ports), with it providing 2,400W to 4,000W of max output when surging.
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There are six main ways to recharge its own battery, with an AC outlet or a gas generator putting it at 100% in 88 minutes, while utilizing its max 800W solar input gets you there in up to three hours. You can also use both AC and solar charging at the same time to hit 100% in up to 58 minutes, or if you’re driving, either use your car’s auxiliary port for up to 23 hours or the new 800W alternator charger for faster speeds.
Anker’s SOLIX Black Friday 4-Day flash sale offers:
Upgrade your lawn care with up to 35% Black Friday savings on Mammotion RTK robot mowers from $649
During Amazon’s Black Friday Sale event, the official Mammotion storefront is offering up to 35% savings across various models of its robot lawn mowers, with prices starting lowest on the YUKA Mini 500H Robotic Lawn Mower at $649 shipped. You’d have to shell out $999 for this model at full price, which discounts have previously dropped to this same low rate twice before, while others kept costs higher at $779 or more. Picking one up here not only automates your lawn care routine, but you’ll be doing so with $350 cut from the tag at the lowest price we have tracked. Head below for all the other Mammotion robot models we’re seeing discounted for the holidays.
Anker’s popular PowerCore Reserve 192Wh power station with a pop-up light drops to $80 for Black Friday (Save $70)
As part of the ongoing Amazon Black Friday Sale, Anker’s official storefront is offering its popular PowerCore Reserve 60,000mAh Portable Power Station back at $79.98 shipped in both colorways, which matches the price we’re seeing directly from the brand’s website. Fetching $150 at full price and regularly seeing Prime exclusive discounts to $110, it’s during major events like Black Friday (as well as random windows throughout other months) that we often see it dip below $100 to either $90 or $80, with there having been a once-off drop to the $75 low back in July that hasn’t been seen since. You’re getting the opportunity to score it at the next-best price this holiday season, cutting $70 off the going rate and giving you quite the portable means to keep personal devices up and running.
Lectric XP4 Standard Folding Utility e-bikes with $326 bundle: $999 (Reg. $1,325)
Lectric XP Lite 2.0 Long-Range e-bikes with $449 bundles: $999 (Reg. $1,448)
Heybike Mars 2.0 Folding Fat-Tire e-bike with Black Friday gift: $999 (Reg. $1,499)
Heybike Ranger S Folding Fat-Tire e-bike with Black Friday gift: $999 (Reg. $1,499)
Best new Green Deals landing this week
The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.
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