An oil pump jack operates at the Inglewood Oil Field in Culver City, California, U.S., on Sunday, July 11, 2021.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images
LONDON — Oil and gas majors are likely to report bumper second-quarter earnings in the coming days, energy analysts have told CNBC, following a brutal 12 months by virtually every measure.
The expected upswing would build on a surprisingly strong showing in the first quarter and lend further support to the oil and gas industry’s efforts to pay down debt and reward investors.
“Europe’s integrated oil sector already enjoyed surprisingly strong earnings in 1Q, but 2Q is set to show further improvement as commodity prices took another step up,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a research note.
International benchmark Brent crude futures rose to an average of $69 a barrel in the second quarter, the Wall Street bank said, up from an average of $61 in the first three months of the year. The oil contract was last seen trading at around $73.57.
Oil companies that ignore climate in their earnings calls will be seen as laggards. Long-term investors will conclude they are financially risky.
Kathy Hipple
Finance professor at Bard College
Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that energy major share prices continue to be anchored by their dividend distributions. Notwithstanding substantial increases to free cash flow forecasts, the bank said Big Oil dividend expectations remain “rather static.”
“The energy transition confronts investors with much uncertainty, and the sector’s capital allocation track record has been mixed at best over the last decade. Hence, investors are only valuing the cash flow paid to them, with little credit given for cash flow retained within companies,” they said.
“As the dividend outlook has not improved much, and dividend yields in aggregate are already low by historical standards, share prices have trailed the earnings outlook considerably.”
In Europe, Royal Dutch Shell and TotalEnergies will report second-quarter earnings on July 29, with BP scheduled to follow on Aug. 3. Stateside, ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to publish their latest figures on July 30, while ConocoPhillips will report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 3.
Fuel prices on a sign at a BP gas station in Louisville, Kentucky, on Friday, Jan. 29, 2021.
Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Rene Santos, manager for North America supply at S&P Global Platts Analytics, told CNBC via email that he expects second-quarter earnings from U.S.-based energy companies to be “significantly higher” when compared to the same period in 2020.
This is “mainly due to much higher oil prices,” he added. “In addition, the majors, large and mid-cap companies have kept capital discipline and have continued to focus on paying down debt and increasing free cash flow instead of increasing activity [drilling and completion] despite higher oil prices.”
Santos said S&P Global Platts Analytics also foresee an increase in the reporting of ESG activity, noting that it “looks like pressure from environmental groups and fear of more regulations from the current administration is persuading many companies to do more to decrease emissions.”
Growing climate risk
The oil and gas industry was sent into a tailspin last year as the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic fuel demand shock, plunging commodity prices, unprecedented write-downs and tens of thousands of job cuts. The torrent of bad news prompted the head of the International Energy Agency to suggest it may come to represent the worst year in the history of oil markets.
Oil prices have since rebounded to multi-year highs and all three of the world’s main forecasting agencies — OPEC, the IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration — now expect a demand-led recovery to pick up speed in the second half of 2021.
Clark Williams-Derry, energy finance analyst at IEEFA, a non-profit organization, said he expects oil and gas companies to try to claim a clean bill of health after a bumper second quarter. “That’s the mantra that we will hear,” he told CNBC via telephone.
However, while energy majors will likely have had the opportunity to pay down some debt after generating a significant chunk of cash from their operations, Williams-Derry said that this hides the fact that these companies have not invested much in future production.
Members of the environmental group MilieuDefensie celebrate the verdict of the Dutch environmental organisation’s case against Royal Dutch Shell Plc, outside the Palace of Justice courthouse in The Hague, Netherlands, on Wednesday, May 26, 2021. Shell was ordered by a Dutch court to slash its emissions harder and faster than planned, dealing a blow to the oil giant that could have far reaching consequences for the rest of the global fossil fuel industry.
Peter Boer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“What I think the market is starting to signal is that it kind of likes when the oil companies shrink and aren’t going all out into new production but they are using the cash that their operations are generating to pay down debt and reward investors.”
Longer term, Williams-Derry warned there’s a “tremendous degree” of investor skepticism about the business models of oil and gas firms, citing the deepening climate crisis and the urgent need to pivot away from fossil fuels.
“We saw earlier in the year signs of a sea change in investor thinking about, frankly, the legal status of some of the supermajors,” he said, referring to a series of landmark courtroom and boardroom defeats for the likes of Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron.
“So, even if you are riding high for a quarter or two when prices are high, the reality is still that stock prices are way below the market as a whole and there’s just not the investor enthusiasm for the old business model that I think these companies probably expected to see,” he said.
Energy transition
Kathy Hipple, finance professor at Bard College in New York, told CNBC via email that she believes two key themes are likely to emerge this earnings season: Addressing investor concerns around climate risk and the outlining of new business models to survive a pivot toward renewables.
“Investors are future-oriented and will look past a short-term pop in earnings compared to last year’s dismal second-quarter results,” Hipple said. “They want to see concrete business strategies that acknowledge the energy transition that is gathering speed.”
“Oil companies that ignore climate in their earnings calls will be seen as laggards. Long-term investors will conclude they are financially risky,” Hipple said.
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss electricity becoming the base currency, Tesla Robotaxi crashes, the new Porsche Cayenne EV, and more.
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Wallbox is ramping up its partnership with distributor Codale Electric Supply to roll out more EV chargers across the Mountain West, a region that’s seeing a rapid escalation of electrification programs and regional highway corridor build-outs.
Codale has become one of Wallbox’s most active distributors over the past two years, helping contractors, developers, and fleet operators procure Wallbox gear while also providing technical support and logistics. Now the two companies are scaling both AC and DC fast charging across Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Nevada.
Under the new agreement, Codale will prioritize Wallbox Supernova DC fast chargers and Pulsar Family AC chargers. Codale is already coordinating upgrades of older charging systems and installing new ones across public, commercial, and multifamily sites. Early projects include collaborations with several charge point operators and large commercial portfolios, some of which are rolling out Supernova units in Q4.
The Mountain West has become a hotspot for charging expansion, and Wallbox and Codale say their partnership is designed to keep pace by streamlining installation and improving network reliability.
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Ignasi Alastuey, Wallbox’s chief business officer, said, “This partnership combines Wallbox’s innovation with Codale’s on-the-ground capabilities to rapidly scale charging networks across the Mountain West and set a new benchmark for EV infrastructure growth.”
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EcoFlow launches next Black Friday Sale phase with up to 80% off expanded lineup – starts from $149
EcoFlow has officially switched to its next Black Friday Sale phase of deals with up to 80% discounts, plenty of FREE gifts, bonus savings, and more. Among the new lineup, we spotted EcoFlow’s DELTA Pro Portable Power Station bundled with 2x 220W solar panels and a FREE protective bag at $1,699 shipped, which is not only being exclusively offered direct from the brand, but is also dropping things lower than ever. One thing to note here is that, sadly, the extra savings code isn’t valid on this bundle. It would normally run you $5,199 for everything (including the $99 bag), with the bagless bundle at Amazon keeping lower at a starting rate of $3,999 and only dropping to $1,999 right now. This deal comes in $100 under its previous offer during the brand’s Halloween Sale, giving you a total $2,300 off the going rate ($3,500 off the MSRP) for the best new price that we have tracked anywhere. Be sure to head below to check out the newest phase of full Black Friday deals.
EcoFlow’s DELTA Pro power station is among the most beloved and highly rated backup power solutions from under the brand’s flag, and this solar bundle is quite the setup to grab now that it’s fallen so low in price. Covering away-from-home trips, as well as at-home emergencies, this station starts at a 3,600Wh LiFePO4 capacity that you can expand up to its 25kWh max with further investments. Your devices and appliances can receive up to 3,600W of regular power through the 14 output ports, with it even surging as high as 7,200W for those larger appliances that need more. You’ll be 440W closer to reaching its 1,600W max solar input, thanks to the bundled panels, with additional options for recharging from an AC outlet, as well as your car’s auxiliary port (or by using a compatible alternator charger).
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***Note: EcoFlow is continuing the usage of the promo code 25EFBFAFF at checkout for an extra 5% savings off your cart’s total, with none of the prices below having it factored in. Keep in mind that a number of offers are ineligible to receive the extra savings, but be sure to try it at checkout to ensure you’re getting the best possible savings during EcoFlow’s Black Friday Sale!
EcoFlow’s other direct Black Friday website-only deals/bundles:
RAPID Mag Qi2 10,000mAh 15W magnetic power bank: $55 (Reg. $90)
RAPID Mag Qi2.2 10,000mAh 25W magnetic power bank with built-in cable: $70 (Reg. $100)
DELTA 2 (2,048Wh) with extra battery and 2x 110W panels: $899 (Reg. $2,646)
Save thousands for Black Friday on Samsung smart washer/dryers, refrigerators, ovens, and more starting from $269
As part of Samsung’s ongoing Black Friday Sale event, we’re seeing deals that can save you hundreds to thousands of dollars on the smartest home appliance upgrades, including the Bespoke AI All-in-One Ventless Washer/Dryer Combo at $1,999 shipped, which is actually going for $110 less at Best Buy. There’s also the newer Vented Bespoke AI All-in-One Combo at $1,999 shipped, which you won’t find at Best Buy. The ventless model normally fetches $3,299 without discounts ($3,099 for the vented counterpart) direct from the brand, and starts lower at $2,970 at Best Buy, with 2025 having seen it more often down at $2,199 during sales. While we have seen it go lower in the past, especially 2024, you’re otherwise looking at the best prices we have tracked this year, letting you upgrade to a smarter way to do laundry with up to $1,300 savings, or save more by going with Samsung’s open-box option for $1,599 on the washer/dryer’s sale page down on the right-side options.
Alongside the washer/dryer combos above, we’ve curated a full list of Samsung’s best Black Friday appliance deals on other washers, dryers, refrigerators, ovens, dishwashers, and more that you can browse by checking out our original coverage of this sale here.
Autel’s MaxiCharger AC Lite level 2 EV charger grants up to 50A speeds at new $398 Black Friday low (Save $171)
Lectric XP4 Standard Folding Utility e-bikes with $326 bundle: $999 (Reg. $1,325)
Lectric XP Lite 2.0 Long-Range e-bikes with $449 bundles: $999 (Reg. $1,448)
Heybike Mars 2.0 Folding Fat-Tire e-bike with Black Friday gift: $999 (Reg. $1,499)
Heybike Ranger S Folding Fat-Tire e-bike with Black Friday gift: $999 (Reg. $1,499)
Best new Green Deals landing this week
The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.