An oil pump jack operates at the Inglewood Oil Field in Culver City, California, U.S., on Sunday, July 11, 2021.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images
LONDON — Oil and gas majors are likely to report bumper second-quarter earnings in the coming days, energy analysts have told CNBC, following a brutal 12 months by virtually every measure.
The expected upswing would build on a surprisingly strong showing in the first quarter and lend further support to the oil and gas industry’s efforts to pay down debt and reward investors.
“Europe’s integrated oil sector already enjoyed surprisingly strong earnings in 1Q, but 2Q is set to show further improvement as commodity prices took another step up,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a research note.
International benchmark Brent crude futures rose to an average of $69 a barrel in the second quarter, the Wall Street bank said, up from an average of $61 in the first three months of the year. The oil contract was last seen trading at around $73.57.
Oil companies that ignore climate in their earnings calls will be seen as laggards. Long-term investors will conclude they are financially risky.
Kathy Hipple
Finance professor at Bard College
Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that energy major share prices continue to be anchored by their dividend distributions. Notwithstanding substantial increases to free cash flow forecasts, the bank said Big Oil dividend expectations remain “rather static.”
“The energy transition confronts investors with much uncertainty, and the sector’s capital allocation track record has been mixed at best over the last decade. Hence, investors are only valuing the cash flow paid to them, with little credit given for cash flow retained within companies,” they said.
“As the dividend outlook has not improved much, and dividend yields in aggregate are already low by historical standards, share prices have trailed the earnings outlook considerably.”
In Europe, Royal Dutch Shell and TotalEnergies will report second-quarter earnings on July 29, with BP scheduled to follow on Aug. 3. Stateside, ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to publish their latest figures on July 30, while ConocoPhillips will report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 3.
Fuel prices on a sign at a BP gas station in Louisville, Kentucky, on Friday, Jan. 29, 2021.
Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Rene Santos, manager for North America supply at S&P Global Platts Analytics, told CNBC via email that he expects second-quarter earnings from U.S.-based energy companies to be “significantly higher” when compared to the same period in 2020.
This is “mainly due to much higher oil prices,” he added. “In addition, the majors, large and mid-cap companies have kept capital discipline and have continued to focus on paying down debt and increasing free cash flow instead of increasing activity [drilling and completion] despite higher oil prices.”
Santos said S&P Global Platts Analytics also foresee an increase in the reporting of ESG activity, noting that it “looks like pressure from environmental groups and fear of more regulations from the current administration is persuading many companies to do more to decrease emissions.”
Growing climate risk
The oil and gas industry was sent into a tailspin last year as the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic fuel demand shock, plunging commodity prices, unprecedented write-downs and tens of thousands of job cuts. The torrent of bad news prompted the head of the International Energy Agency to suggest it may come to represent the worst year in the history of oil markets.
Oil prices have since rebounded to multi-year highs and all three of the world’s main forecasting agencies — OPEC, the IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration — now expect a demand-led recovery to pick up speed in the second half of 2021.
Clark Williams-Derry, energy finance analyst at IEEFA, a non-profit organization, said he expects oil and gas companies to try to claim a clean bill of health after a bumper second quarter. “That’s the mantra that we will hear,” he told CNBC via telephone.
However, while energy majors will likely have had the opportunity to pay down some debt after generating a significant chunk of cash from their operations, Williams-Derry said that this hides the fact that these companies have not invested much in future production.
Members of the environmental group MilieuDefensie celebrate the verdict of the Dutch environmental organisation’s case against Royal Dutch Shell Plc, outside the Palace of Justice courthouse in The Hague, Netherlands, on Wednesday, May 26, 2021. Shell was ordered by a Dutch court to slash its emissions harder and faster than planned, dealing a blow to the oil giant that could have far reaching consequences for the rest of the global fossil fuel industry.
Peter Boer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“What I think the market is starting to signal is that it kind of likes when the oil companies shrink and aren’t going all out into new production but they are using the cash that their operations are generating to pay down debt and reward investors.”
Longer term, Williams-Derry warned there’s a “tremendous degree” of investor skepticism about the business models of oil and gas firms, citing the deepening climate crisis and the urgent need to pivot away from fossil fuels.
“We saw earlier in the year signs of a sea change in investor thinking about, frankly, the legal status of some of the supermajors,” he said, referring to a series of landmark courtroom and boardroom defeats for the likes of Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron.
“So, even if you are riding high for a quarter or two when prices are high, the reality is still that stock prices are way below the market as a whole and there’s just not the investor enthusiasm for the old business model that I think these companies probably expected to see,” he said.
Energy transition
Kathy Hipple, finance professor at Bard College in New York, told CNBC via email that she believes two key themes are likely to emerge this earnings season: Addressing investor concerns around climate risk and the outlining of new business models to survive a pivot toward renewables.
“Investors are future-oriented and will look past a short-term pop in earnings compared to last year’s dismal second-quarter results,” Hipple said. “They want to see concrete business strategies that acknowledge the energy transition that is gathering speed.”
“Oil companies that ignore climate in their earnings calls will be seen as laggards. Long-term investors will conclude they are financially risky,” Hipple said.
Cowboy, the Brussels-based connected e-bike maker, says it has secured the lifeline it needs to keep the lights on – and the wheels turning – after what the company calls “the most challenging period in its history.” And while market downturns and supply chain woes set the stage, it was a recall that nearly pushed the brand over the edge.
Over the past two years, Cowboy has been riding through the same headwinds that have knocked down much of the bike industry: post-COVID demand shifts, supply chain breakdowns, and a brutal market correction that has already claimed several high-profile e-bike brands. But in the middle of that storm came an extra blow – the company’s first-ever recall.
It started with an unapproved change from a supplier that affected a subset of Cowboy’s Cruiser ST bikes. It turned out that the frames were starting to crack after 2,500 km (1,550 miles). The issue was obviously serious, and it inevitably triggered an official recall. Frames had to be replaced, deliveries were delayed, spare parts became scarce, and customer service backlogs grew. For a company built on sleek design and seamless rider experience, it was a gut punch.
Cowboy says they kept quiet publicly while working on a solution, but now they’re ready to talk – because they’ve found one. In an announcement this week, the company revealed two major milestones: short-term financing to restart production and operations, and a signed term sheet with new financial partner REBIRTH GROUP HOLDING SA. The deal comes with the backing of Cowboy’s existing investors and debt provider, setting the company on a path it says will lead to long-term stability.
Advertisement – scroll for more content
There’s already some tangible progress. Replacement frames have arrived from suppliers, the first recall service hub is now operational (with more to open this summer), and production is gradually ramping back up.
Cowboy’s goal is to have normal operations restored before the end of the year, which means clearing backlogged orders, resolving outstanding customer cases, and getting back to the level of service that won them awards and loyal riders in the first place.
Cowboy has built a reputation for high-tech, urban-focused e-bikes and a premium riding experience, with customers across Europe and the US. But even the best-connected bike in the world can’t outrun a recall and a funding crunch forever. Now, this new deal gives Cowboy both the extra cash and the extra shot it needs to keep the ride going.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.
Voltify plans to build a series of energy microgrids to power its locomotive batteries, as shown in this computer-generated image.
Voltify
Daphna Langer has a bold ambition: To decarbonize the rail industry in less than a decade.
How? By convincing U.S. freight railroad companies to switch from diesel power to rechargeable batteries — part of a business model Langer estimates could make her company, Voltify, as much as $10 billion a year.
The rail industry needs to reduce its emissions by 5% a year by 2030 to reach net-zero goals, according to a 2023 report by the International Energy Agency. In addition, switching to battery electricity would save U.S. rail freight companies $94 billion over 20 years, according to a 2021 study published in the journal Nature Energy.
Voltify’s VoltCars — essentially sodium-ion batteries on wheels — are designed to connect to existing freight locomotives.
Convincing the $80-billion U.S. rail industry to switch from a traditional and long-relied on fossil fuel to renewable energy might seem a tough task, but there are several reasons Langer said she is confident in Voltify’s goal.
After a stint advising multiple early-stage companies in the climate industry, Langer noticed two things that limited their growth. “Most of them rely on subsidies of governments, and [the] second [factor] is that they rely on manufacturing and scaling that just doesn’t exist today,” she said.
In a bid to overcome those hurdles, Langer held meetings with hundreds of people in the energy and materials industries, seeking opportunities. When she first met her co-founder Alon Kessel, it was a “ding ding” moment, she said.
A computer-generated image illustrating Voltify’s VoltCar batteries attached to a locomotive.
Voltify
Kessel knew the renewable energy market well, having co-founded Doral, a firm that owns and operates dozens of solar energy farms in the U.S. and Europe. He calculated that the six largest freight railroad companies in the U.S. — including Union Pacific and CSX — were collectively spending more than $11 billion a year on diesel, a figure verified by CNBC. Union Pacific, for example, spent almost $2.5 billion on fuel in 2024, per its annual report.
Langer and Kessel saw an opportunity. What if they could convince the large companies — known as Class 1 railroads — to convert their locomotives from diesel to battery power?
“Converting six companies is not that hard. And having that ability to create such an impact with just six companies, it’s huge,” Langer said. There is almost 140,000 miles of freight railroad track in the U.S., with the majority of the locomotives powered by diesel as there is little overhead electrification.
Langer and Kessel founded Voltify in 2023 and set about meeting the railroad companies. But they found initial resistance. “There’s a lot of skepticism, because this is such a traditional industry, and uptime and and reliability are key,” Langer said. “We’ve been figuring out what would be able to … fit into their schedule, to fit into their operations without harming their efficiency.”
The companies’ biggest concern was the amount of time it might take to charge the batteries, and that there would always be the power supply to do so. “The rail companies, who have been very blunt about it, [said] ‘Listen, we don’t really care about the energy source. We just need to make sure that it’s always up. There’s always energy,'” Langer said.
So Voltify spent about a year working on an algorithm that could forecast the energy demands of trains “in every route,” Langer said, and the company is also building its first solar-powered energy microgrid that Langer said is on track to be finished by the end of the year. “Our calculations show that a network of these microgrids could eventually power all trains in North America,” Langer told CNBC in an email. Voltify estimates that to do so would require 1,400 microgrids.
Wabtec’s FLXdrive battery locomotive was developed in 2019.
Wabtec
Voltify is in “very active” talks with three of North America’s largest railroad companies, Langer said, adding that it is set to run a demonstration project with a smaller railroad company later this year. Voltify is also starting a pilot with a Class 1 railroad company in early 2026, and Langer said it is “expected” that this will become a commercial deployment after several months.
Voltify isn’t the first company to come up with the idea of powering freight trains with batteries. In 2019, freight rail firm Wabtec developed a battery-electric locomotive called the FLXdrive, with the first trains set to operate in Australia after being ordered by miner BHP Group. The company also tested its battery-electric locomotive with GE, and said in an email to CNBC that it plans to test and operate FLXdrive trains in North and South American markets.
The technology can reduce diesel consumption and emissions by 30%, according to Tim Bader, Wabtec’s director of external and engineering communications, in an email to CNBC. “This benefit is critical since fuel is one of the major operating costs for a railroad,” he said.
But as the technology is emerging, there are challenges such as charging time and battery capacity, plus a “challenging” business case given the infrastructure investments required. “Like any emerging technology, these challenges will diminish as the industry continues to research and improve battery-power solutions,” Bader said.
A computer-generated image of a passenger train on New York City’s MTA Metro North network, which is set to be powered by Siemens Mobility Charger B+AC battery.
Siemens Mobility
There’s also “substantial” market potential for battery-powered passenger trains, according to Tobias Bauer, the acting CEO for Siemens Mobility North America, in an email to CNBC. “Battery-powered trains represent a new and exciting platform for the rail market, particularly as operators seek alternatives for non-electrified routes,” Bauer said.
Siemens Mobility has sold more than 400 diesel-electric Charger locomotives in North America, and in June launched its battery-electric train, the Charger B+AC, selling 13 to the New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority and Metro-North Railroad.
The new locomotive draws electricity from overhead catenary wires and transfers to battery power when needed, according to an online release. While the locomotives’ range is currently up to 100 miles, Bauer said that is expected to grow as the battery technology advances.
In February, Siemens Mobility received an order from Swiss freight operator WRS Widmer Rail Services for two of its Vectron lithium-ion battery locomotives, which can be used for shunting without the need for overhead power lines. Asked about the potential for battery-powered freight trains, Bauer said: “A full transition to battery-powered freight would depend on route specifics and charging infrastructure, but the potential is there.”
— CNBC’s Michael Wayland contributed to this report.
Chevy set a new EV range record going nearly 1,060 miles on a single charge in an optimized, but unmodified Chevy Silverado EV Work Truck that no one saw coming. No one, that is, except Chargeway founder Matt Teske. His EV route-planning map predicted the Silverado’s record-setting run with better than 99% accuracy – and he’s here to talk about it on today’s electric episode of Quick Charge!
We’ve also got a deep dive into what I think the biggest issue facing more widespread EV adoption might be, and a new solution from Blink Charging that might solve it.
Today’s episode is brought to you by Retrospec—makers of sleek, powerful e-bikes and outdoor gear built for everyday adventure. Check out Retrospec’s viral city ebike, the Beaumont Rev 2, made with a vintage-inspired frame design and modern electric features, all for just $999!
The best part: Electrek listeners can get 10% off their next ride until August 14 with the exclusive code ELECTREK10 only at retrospec.com
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (most weeks, anyway). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.
Got news? Let us know! Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.