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An oil pump jack operates at the Inglewood Oil Field in Culver City, California, U.S., on Sunday, July 11, 2021.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images

LONDON — Oil and gas majors are likely to report bumper second-quarter earnings in the coming days, energy analysts have told CNBC, following a brutal 12 months by virtually every measure.

The expected upswing would build on a surprisingly strong showing in the first quarter and lend further support to the oil and gas industry’s efforts to pay down debt and reward investors.

“Big Oil” companies, referring to the world’s largest oil and gas majors, still face significant challenges and uncertainties, however.

These include the remarkable success of shareholder activism in recent months, a “tremendous degree” of ongoing investor skepticism and intensifying pressure to massively reduce fossil fuel use in order to meet the demands of the climate emergency.

“Europe’s integrated oil sector already enjoyed surprisingly strong earnings in 1Q, but 2Q is set to show further improvement as commodity prices took another step up,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

International benchmark Brent crude futures rose to an average of $69 a barrel in the second quarter, the Wall Street bank said, up from an average of $61 in the first three months of the year. The oil contract was last seen trading at around $73.57.

Oil companies that ignore climate in their earnings calls will be seen as laggards. Long-term investors will conclude they are financially risky.
Kathy Hipple
Finance professor at Bard College

Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that energy major share prices continue to be anchored by their dividend distributions. Notwithstanding substantial increases to free cash flow forecasts, the bank said Big Oil dividend expectations remain “rather static.”

“The energy transition confronts investors with much uncertainty, and the sector’s capital allocation track record has been mixed at best over the last decade. Hence, investors are only valuing the cash flow paid to them, with little credit given for cash flow retained within companies,” they said.

“As the dividend outlook has not improved much, and dividend yields in aggregate are already low by historical standards, share prices have trailed the earnings outlook considerably.”

In Europe, Royal Dutch Shell and TotalEnergies will report second-quarter earnings on July 29, with BP scheduled to follow on Aug. 3. Stateside, ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to publish their latest figures on July 30, while ConocoPhillips will report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 3.

Fuel prices on a sign at a BP gas station in Louisville, Kentucky, on Friday, Jan. 29, 2021.
Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Rene Santos, manager for North America supply at S&P Global Platts Analytics, told CNBC via email that he expects second-quarter earnings from U.S.-based energy companies to be “significantly higher” when compared to the same period in 2020.

This is “mainly due to much higher oil prices,” he added. “In addition, the majors, large and mid-cap companies have kept capital discipline and have continued to focus on paying down debt and increasing free cash flow instead of increasing activity [drilling and completion] despite higher oil prices.”

Santos said S&P Global Platts Analytics also foresee an increase in the reporting of ESG activity, noting that it “looks like pressure from environmental groups and fear of more regulations from the current administration is persuading many companies to do more to decrease emissions.”

Growing climate risk

The oil and gas industry was sent into a tailspin last year as the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic fuel demand shock, plunging commodity prices, unprecedented write-downs and tens of thousands of job cuts. The torrent of bad news prompted the head of the International Energy Agency to suggest it may come to represent the worst year in the history of oil markets.

Oil prices have since rebounded to multi-year highs and all three of the world’s main forecasting agencies — OPEC, the IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration — now expect a demand-led recovery to pick up speed in the second half of 2021.

Clark Williams-Derry, energy finance analyst at IEEFA, a non-profit organization, said he expects oil and gas companies to try to claim a clean bill of health after a bumper second quarter. “That’s the mantra that we will hear,” he told CNBC via telephone.

However, while energy majors will likely have had the opportunity to pay down some debt after generating a significant chunk of cash from their operations, Williams-Derry said that this hides the fact that these companies have not invested much in future production.

Members of the environmental group MilieuDefensie celebrate the verdict of the Dutch environmental organisation’s case against Royal Dutch Shell Plc, outside the Palace of Justice courthouse in The Hague, Netherlands, on Wednesday, May 26, 2021. Shell was ordered by a Dutch court to slash its emissions harder and faster than planned, dealing a blow to the oil giant that could have far reaching consequences for the rest of the global fossil fuel industry.
Peter Boer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“What I think the market is starting to signal is that it kind of likes when the oil companies shrink and aren’t going all out into new production but they are using the cash that their operations are generating to pay down debt and reward investors.”

Longer term, Williams-Derry warned there’s a “tremendous degree” of investor skepticism about the business models of oil and gas firms, citing the deepening climate crisis and the urgent need to pivot away from fossil fuels.

“We saw earlier in the year signs of a sea change in investor thinking about, frankly, the legal status of some of the supermajors,” he said, referring to a series of landmark courtroom and boardroom defeats for the likes of Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron.

“So, even if you are riding high for a quarter or two when prices are high, the reality is still that stock prices are way below the market as a whole and there’s just not the investor enthusiasm for the old business model that I think these companies probably expected to see,” he said.

Energy transition

Kathy Hipple, finance professor at Bard College in New York, told CNBC via email that she believes two key themes are likely to emerge this earnings season: Addressing investor concerns around climate risk and the outlining of new business models to survive a pivot toward renewables.

“Investors are future-oriented and will look past a short-term pop in earnings compared to last year’s dismal second-quarter results,” Hipple said. “They want to see concrete business strategies that acknowledge the energy transition that is gathering speed.”

She argued it was important to note that these earnings will be announced “against a backdrop of climate disasters around the globe,” from extreme heat in the Pacific Northwest to flooding in Europe and China.

“Oil companies that ignore climate in their earnings calls will be seen as laggards. Long-term investors will conclude they are financially risky,” Hipple said.

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Mercedes-Benz unveils the new CLA Shooting Brake EV with impressive range

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Mercedes-Benz unveils the new CLA Shooting Brake EV with impressive range

The new CLA Shooting Brake is the first electric Mercedes vehicle available as an estate. It’s more spacious, more capable, and more high-tech than ever.

Meet the new Mercedes CLA Shooting Brake EV

Mercedes introduced the new CLA Shooting Brake on Tuesday, its first electric estate car. The Shooting Brake arrives as the second EV from the luxury brand’s new entry-level family of vehicles.

The electric wagon takes the best of the new CLA, which was revealed just a few weeks ago, and adds more space and capability.

It’s also bigger than the current CLA Shooting Brake, offering a more spacious interior. The new EV measures 4,723 mm in length, or 35 mm longer than the outgoing model.

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With an extended wheelbase of 2,790 mm (+61 mm), the electric version offers 14 mm more headroom and 11 mm more legroom in the front. Rear passengers gain 7 mm of headroom but lose 6 mm of legroom compared to the current model.

Mercedes-Benz-CLA-Shooting-Brake-EV
Mercedes-Benz CLA Shooting Brake models (Source: Mercedes-Benz)

Boot space is 455 L, which is 50 L more than the CLA sedan, but 30 L less than the outgoing Shooting Brake. However, it does include an added Frunk (front trunk) for an extra 101 L of storage space.

With all seats folded, overall storage space is 1,290 L. It also comes with standard roof rails, which Mercedes claims can easily fit surfboards or bicycles with a 75 kg (165 lbs) load capacity.

Mercedes-Benz-CLA-Shooting-Brake-EV
Mercedes-Benz CLA Shooting Brake with EQ Technology (Source: Mercedes-Benz)

Inside, the new Shooting Brake is nearly identical to the CLA Sedan. It features the new Mercedes-Benz Operating System (MB.OS) with its fourth-gen infotainment.

The setup includes a 14″ infotainment and 10.25″ driver display screens. An extra 14″ passenger screen is available. A trim piece with star-pattern graphics replaces it if not. All three screens are powered by the latest-gen chips and graphics from Unity Game Engine.

Mercedes-Benz-CLA-Shooting-Brake-EV
Mercedes-Benz CLA Shooting Brake EV interior (Source: Mercedes-Benz)

Powered by the new Mercedes-Benz Modular Architecture and an 85 kWh battery, the new Shooting Brake EV offers up to 473 miles (761 km) WLTP range.

It will be available in single and dual-motor powertrains. The base CLA 250+ Shooting Brake has 268 hp (200 kW) output and a WLTP range of up to 473 miles (761 km). Meanwhile, the dual-motor CLA 350 4MATIC Shooting Brake has combined 349 hp (260 kW) and a range of up to 454 miles (730 km).

Mercedes-Benz-CLA-Shooting-Brake-EV
Mercedes-Benz CLA Shooting Brake EV interior (Source: Mercedes-Benz)

Based on its 800V architecture, the new electric estate can add 193 miles (310 km) WLTP driving range within 10 minutes. Mercedes said that should be plenty to get from Geneva to Milan or Berlin to Hamburg.

Mercedes will introduce new EV variants in early 2026, followed by a 1.5 L hybrid model. Prices will be revealed closer to launch, but it’s expected to start slightly higher than the current model. The current CLA Shooting Brake starts at around €40,000 ($46,500) in Europe.

Following the new CLA and CLA Shooting Brake, Mercedes-Benz plans to launch two SUVs. Check back soon for more info on the upcoming lineup.

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U.S. moving fast to secure access to critical minerals to counter China’s dominance of market, Pentagon says

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U.S. moving fast to secure access to critical minerals to counter China's dominance of market, Pentagon says

MP Materials CEO on deal with the Defense Department

The Pentagon is taking immediate action to boost critical mineral production in the U.S. and counter China’s dominance of the supply chain for rare earth magnets, a defense official told CNBC on Tuesday.

The Defense Department last week agreed to buy a direct equity stake in MP Materials, which will make the U.S. government the miner’s largest shareholder. MP operates the only rare earth mine in the U.S. located at Mountain Pass, California, and a magnet plant in Forth Worth, Texas.

When asked whether the Pentagon is considering similar investments in other U.S. mining companies, the defense official said it is looking at opportunities to strengthen domestic critical mineral production.

“Rebuilding the critical minerals and rare earth magnet sectors of the U.S. industrial base won’t happen overnight, but DoD is taking immediate action to streamline processes and identify opportunities to strengthen critical minerals production,” official said in a statement.

Rare earths are used in weapons such as the F-35 warplane, drones and submarines among other other military platforms. The U.S. was almost entirely dependent on foreign countries for rare earths in 2023, with China representing about 70% of imports, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

MP Materials CEO James Litinsky told CNBC last week that he views the public-private partnership with the Defense Department as a model for other companies in industries that are important for national security but struggle to compete against the state-backed enterprises in China.

“I’d like to think that this is sort of the first, it’s a model,” Litinsky told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday. “We have to deliver at MP and show that this is an incredible route to go. But it’s a new way forward to accelerate free markets, to get the supply chain on shore that we want.”

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in April that the U.S. government was looking at taking direct equity stakes in critical mineral and rare earth miners to break China’s dominance. The Trump administration is also looking at stockpiling critical minerals and creating a sovereign risk insurance fund to protect companies investments’ in federally approved projects, Burgum said at an energy conference in Oklahoma City.

The Pentagon makes long-term investments in mining, processing and refining critical minerals, the defense official told CNBC. It has invested $540 million so far to support a critical mineral and rare earth supply chain in the U.S. and allied nations, the official said.

“That is significant, and DoD will continue to such efforts in accordance with congressional appropriations and statutory authorities,” the official said.

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Crypto super PAC Fairshake reports $141 million war chest

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Crypto super PAC Fairshake reports 1 million war chest

Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Fairshake, the cryptocurrency industry’s most powerful political action committee, announced Tuesday that it now holds more than $141 million in cash on hand, underscoring the sector’s growing influence as Congress takes up landmark legislation this week.

The total, which includes liquid assets like crypto, stock, and cash, reflects a surge of donations from digital asset executives and firms, including a fresh $25 million from Coinbase.

Fairshake and its two affiliated PACs — Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress — have raised $109 million since Election Day in 2024 and $52 million during just the first half of this year.

“We are building an aggressive, targeted strategy for next year to ensure that pro-crypto voices are heard in key races across the country,” said spokesperson Josh Vlasto.

Ethereum succeeded beyond anyone's expectations, says network co-founder Vitalik Buterin at EthCC

The announcement lands in the middle of what lawmakers are calling “Crypto Week” on Capitol Hill, as the House begins deliberations on a trio of long-awaited bills that would define how digital assets are regulated.

The legislation includes the dividing of oversight, setting new stablecoin rules, and a bill banning the creation of a central bank digital currency.

The crypto industry is no longer just lobbying for survival, it is shaping the political landscape. Fairshake saw nearly every candidate it backed in 2024 win their race.

“We stuck to our core strategy from Day 1,” Fairshake previously told CNBC. “We supported pro-crypto candidates and opposed those who played politics with jobs and innovation, and won.”

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How crypto and fintech may perform under the second Trump administration

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