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The Storage Futures Study (SFS) was launched in 2020 by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Storage Grand Challenge. The study explores how energy storage technology advancement could impact the deployment of utility-scale storage and adoption of distributed storage, as well as future power system infrastructure investment and operations.

There is economic potential for up to 490 gigawatts per hour of behind-the-meter battery storage in the United States by 2050 in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, or 300 times today’s installed capacity. But only a small fraction could be adopted by customers, according to the latest phase of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Storage Futures Study.

“By implementing new battery capabilities in our model, we were able to do scenario comparison that revealed battery cost and the value of backup power are important drivers of distributed storage deployment,” said Ashreeta Prasanna, lead author of the NREL technical report, Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios.

The study provides one of the first published estimates of distributed battery storage deployment. The NREL team of analysts — also including Kevin McCabe, Ben Sigrin, and Nate Blair — modeled customer adoption of battery storage systems coupled with solar photovoltaics (PV) in the United States out to 2050 under several scenarios. The results can help inform planning for technical grid infrastructure to capture the benefits and mitigate the challenges of growing distributed electricity generation.

PV-Plus-Battery Scenarios

The Rise of Behind-the-Meter Battery Storage

A widespread transition to distributed energy resources (DERs) is taking place. Households and businesses around the world are adopting DERs to lower their energy bills and curb carbon emissions. Local policymakers have set ambitious energy and climate goals; grid resiliency is a growing concern due to climate change and weather disasters; and more communities face high energy burdens.

In addition, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order 2222 enables DERs to participate alongside traditional energy resources in regional organized wholesale markets.

All these factors have contributed to a rise in DER deployment, including batteries. With declining battery storage costs, customers are starting to pair batteries with distributed solar. Behind-the-meter battery capacity totaled almost 1 gigawatt in the United States by the end of 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie.

While DERs offer many benefits to customers and the grid, like peak load shifting, integrating these resources into the power system presents complex challenges for electric utilities. “The transmission system wasn’t designed with distributed generation in mind,” said Ben Sigrin, coauthor of the report. “Projected DER adoption potential can provide a window into distributed generation and help inform future power system planning.”

Bottom-up Modeling for Bottom-up Generation

NREL’s open-source Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model simulates customer adoption of distributed solar, wind, and storage using a bottom-up, agent-based approach and spatially resolved data (watch a Super Mario Bros.-inspired video to learn more).

For this phase of the Storage Futures Study, the model was modified to simulate the technical, economic, and market potential of behind-the-meter battery storage.

dGen interoperated with NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM), which simulates the performance and efficiency of energy technologies, including cash flow analysis to calculate payback periods — an important consideration in a customer’s decision to adopt a technology.

By interfacing with SAM, dGen modeled the cost-effectiveness and customer adoption of PV-plus-battery storage systems for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States with different technology costs, storage valuation, incentives, and compensation. The resulting upper and lower bounds of adoption revealed what customers consider most in their decisions.

Lower Battery Costs, High Backup-Power Value Drives Deployment

Across all 2050 scenarios, dGen modeled significant economic potential for distributed battery storage coupled with PV. Scenarios assuming modest projected declines in battery costs and lower value of backup power show economic potential for 114 gigawatts of storage capacity — a 90-times increase from today. When battery costs significantly reduce and the value of backup power doubles, the economic potential increases to 245 gigawatts.

However, only 7% of the estimated capacity is adopted by customers. The difference is largely due to the long payback period for distributed PV-plus-battery storage systems, which averages 11 years for the residential sector, 12 years for the commercial sector, and 8 years for the industrial sector in 2030.

“The estimated adoption potential translates to less than 20% of the market potential,” Prasanna said. “Customers are less inclined to invest in a system that takes a long time to be profitable.”

Modeled deployment varies by location based on specific rate structures or incentive programs but is generally driven by battery cost and the value of backup power. Similar trends are seen on the national scale, where lower battery costs and high backup-power value increase deployment.

PV and Batteries Drive Each Other’s Adoption

Several findings in the study demonstrate that PV and batteries make an economical pairing. Because an average PV-plus-battery storage system is larger than PV-only configurations, battery storage increases the PV capacity and the system’s economic value.

About 34%–40% of total annual PV installations projected in 2050 in the reference or baseline scenario are coadopted with batteries. This rate, again, is driven by higher value of backup power and lower technology costs.

Combined cost reductions in both PV and battery storage technologies drive additional adoption compared to cost reductions in just battery technology alone. When costs decrease for both technologies, more customers adopt PV-plus-battery systems, and deployment increases by 106% in 2050.

“The process of developing and implementing the distributed storage technology within dGen revealed additional questions and needed research capabilities related to behind-the-meter battery storage adoption,” Prasanna said. “Additional enhancements of dGen will be needed to explore research questions such as projecting the adoption of community-scale DERs and storage capacity and their impact on the distribution grid, exploration of the tradeoffs between distributed and utility-scale storage, and the role of DERs in supporting the transition to a decarbonized economy.”

Learn More at August 10 Webinar

NREL’s Storage Futures Study team will host a free public webinar on Tuesday, August 10, 2021, from 9 to 10 a.m. MT. You will learn more about the key drivers of customer adoption potential of distributed storage and how the study findings can help inform future power system planning. Register to attend.

Article courtesy of NREL.

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Lake Tahoe getting hydrofoil electric ferry as Candela lands major deal

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Lake Tahoe getting hydrofoil electric ferry as Candela lands major deal

Candela, the Swedish electric boat maker known for its hydrofoil recreational boats and commercial ferries, is grabbing headlines yet again. This time the company is announcing a new C-series funding round and the first P-12 electric ferry headed to the US.

The P-12 is the company’s first operational hydrofoil electric ferry, and it builds upon the success of the C-7 and C-8 recreational speedboats.

All three employ Candela’s sophisticated computer-controlled hydrofoil technology that allows the boats to quite literally fly several feet above the water. Traveling at 25 knots (30 mph), the P-12 is the fastest electric ferry in operation, all while using a fraction of the same energy.

The hydrofoil flight results in a much smoother ride and dramatically improved efficiency. The fast-charging electric boats can thus carry much smaller batteries, making them lighter and more cost-effective. They can then quickly recharge at the dock in a matter of minutes.

We recently saw the first P-12 enter service as a commercial ferry in Stockholm, and now Lake Tahoe is getting into the fly electric ferry business as well.

The interior of a Candela P-12 ferry currently in operation. Each client can customize the ferry’s interior for local needs

The P12 hydrofoiling ferry will reduce travel times for Tahoe locals and visitors, providing a much-needed north-south connection across the lake, while also helping to cut emissions and mitigate road sediment that threatens the lake’s famous cobalt-blue clarity.

Lake Tahoe boasts over 15 million outdoor enthusiasts year-round, which has often led to severe road, especially during the winter months. The implementation of a fast and efficient new electric ferry will help avoid long car lines from snow-induced road closures, as well as grid-lock traffic during the summer months of popular biking and hiking destinations.

A local company, FlyTahoe, will offer a new 30-minute cross-lake ferry service, cutting the travel time in half compared to the daily 20,000 car trips along the same route.

In the winter, that same trip can often take over two hours due to heavy snowfall and road limitations. FlyTahoe will create a vital link to the 14 world-class ski resorts encircling the lake, making it an ideal option for both tourists and locals.

“It’s ironic that while millions, myself included, drive around Lake Tahoe to admire its beauty, the road sediment we generate contributes to the largest threat to the lake’s famous cobalt blue clarity. Our service will provide a faster transport than cars or buses, while keeping Tahoe blue,” says Ryan Meinzer, Founder & CEO of FlyTahoe.

candela
A Candela C-8 and P-12 at cruising speed near Stockholm

Simultaneously, Candela is also celebrating another major milestone back home in Sweden, announcing an additional US $14M raised in its Series C round. That puts Candela’s total secured funding in 2024 at over $40 million. The investment will enable Candela to meet the soaring demand for its groundbreaking zero-emission vessels as it ramps up production of its various models now in service around the world.

“This is the dawn of a zero-emission revival in waterborne transportation,” says Gustav Hasselskog, Candela’s founder and CEO.

The new $14 million investment is led by SEB Private Equity, a global Private Equity investor, with additional participation of existing investors EQT Ventures and KanDela AB.

“This investment, made during a challenging time for many companies, is a testament to Candela’s technology and its unique ability to solve the pressing issue of decarbonizing transport,” added Hasselskog.

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Tesla says Nissan EV drivers now have access to its Supercharger network

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Tesla says Nissan EV drivers now have access to its Supercharger network

Tesla says that Nissan EV drivers, or more specifically Ariya drivers, now have access to its Supercharger network in the US and Canada.

Since earlier this year and since opening its connector as a standard last year, Tesla has been increasingly onboarding more automakers on its Supercharger network in North America.

First, it was Ford, and then GM and Rivian, and more recently, Geely’s Volvo and Polestar.

Now, according to an update on Tesla’s website, Nissan is now a supported EV automaker to use Tesla’s Supercharger network with NACS adapters in North America”

As of the time of writing, Nissan has yet to make an announcement or confirm whether or not it will provide adapters to Ariya owners.

We specify Ariya owners because the electric SUV is the only Nissan vehicle that with CCS connectors and that can work with NACS adapters to see on the Supercharger network.

Unfortunately, the Nissan Leaf uses the CHAdeMO standard, which isn’t supported by the Supercharger network.

The move will give Nissan Ariya drivers access to more than 15,000 Tesla Superchargers and greatly increase access to fast-charging for the owners.

Now, it remains to be seen if the drivers will need to buy their own adapters or if Nissan plans to provide them. Automakers have all approached the situation differently and access to adapters directly from automakers has been somewhat limited.

Some EV owners have relied on third-party adapters, which are not always recommended.

After the access through adapters, the next step is direct integration on non-Tesla EVs. It’s starting soon with the 2025 Hyundai Ioniq 5, but many new EVs are expected to have the NACS as a standard charging port starting next year.

2025 is going to be a transition year for EV connectors in North America and starting in 2026, most, if not all new EVs, are expected to have NACS as standard.

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Kia debuts the 2026 EV9 GT for when your 7 friends need to get there real fast

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Kia debuts the 2026 EV9 GT for when your 7 friends need to get there real fast

Kia debuted its upcoming 2026 EV9 GT at the LA Auto Show this morning, with upgraded horsepower for this large 3-row SUV – and promised NACS support as well.

The Kia EV9 has helped propel Kia to new heights, with impressive sales in the US for the relatively high-priced model (for what has generally been considered a budget brand).

But the EV9 has only been out for about a year now, and it’s already getting a new upgrade with a high-performance GT version.

The EV9 GT was shown off this morning at the LA Auto Show, with improved horsepower and 0-60 time and new electronic suspension, the first time it has appeared on a Kia SUV.

The EV9 GT ups power to 501hp, quite a jump from the 379hp on the current top-spec GT-Line EV9 model (yes, GT and GT-Line are different trim levels, and yes, that’s confusing). This is split into a 160kW motor in front and 270kW motor in the rear.

This is enough to push the three-row SUV to 60mph in 4.3 seconds, down from the 5.0 second mark on the current top-spec EV9.

Other performance improvement include an electronically controlled suspension which allows for damper adjustment, making for a sportier or softer ride based on your drive mode; larger front brakes to help manage all that extra power; and an electronic limited slip differential for improved cornering at the edges of grip (though I really must note that, even though high-powered EVs are quick and fun, a ~6,000lb vehicle really is not a sportscar no matter how you cut it).

The GT will come with exclusive design elements as well, like neon green brake calipers, some matching green interior accents, a GT-exclusive steering wheel, and more heavily bolstered sport seats.

2026 EV9 GT

Like the refreshed EV6 GT announced today, the EV9 GT will gain access to Kia’s “Virtual Gear Shift” feature. This feature “enhances driving immersion by simulating gear shifts with visuals, engine sound effects, and a tactile sensation through motor torque adjustment.”

It basically simulates the feeling of driving a manual gas car, rather than an EV – so in exchange for making your car objectively slower, you can get some silly noises and have a more complicated driving experience.

Kia’s sister company Hyundai introduced a similar feature on the Ioniq 5 N, and when I tried it there I expected to hate it. While I still do think it’s silly and unnecessary and most people will leave it off most of the time, I was impressed by how far Hyundai took it (to the point where you can’t even go past 20mph in “first gear” – the car will just whine at you and make you upshift first). We haven’t gotten to try it out in the EV9 yet, but I’m expecting it will be a similar experience. If nothing else, it is a fun party trick.

2026 EV9 GT

But don’t get too excited, because it’s not available right away – unlike the refreshed EV6, you’ll have to wait until the 2026 model year for the EV9 GT. Kia says that it will arrive in the “latter half of 2025,” and that it will be assembled in Korea, rather than in its Georgia factory where it started EV9 production just last month.

Kia also announced today that the EV6 will be assembled in Georgia – but that GT models would be assembled in Korea. So it’s no surprise that the EV9 GT will also see Korea production, and lower-spec models may still continue to be built in Georgia (or maybe not, given news this week about Kia pulling back production plans).

And also like the refreshed EV6, the EV9 GT will come with a native NACS port, allowing direct connection to Tesla Superchargers without an adapter. Kia says every EV9 will come standard with NACS “starting in the first half of 2025.”

We also don’t yet know pricing for the EV9 GT, but given the price premium the EV6 GT commands, we expect it will start in the high 70s.

To get more specifics on the EV9, Electrek will be roaming around the LA Auto Show today, checking out the newest of what Kia has to offer, and we’ll update you if we find out anything new.

If you’d like, you can use our affiliate link to get in touch with your local dealers about the Kia EV9… though you’ll be waiting a few months if you want to get the GT model.


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