Connect with us

Published

on

The Storage Futures Study (SFS) was launched in 2020 by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Storage Grand Challenge. The study explores how energy storage technology advancement could impact the deployment of utility-scale storage and adoption of distributed storage, as well as future power system infrastructure investment and operations.

There is economic potential for up to 490 gigawatts per hour of behind-the-meter battery storage in the United States by 2050 in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, or 300 times today’s installed capacity. But only a small fraction could be adopted by customers, according to the latest phase of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Storage Futures Study.

“By implementing new battery capabilities in our model, we were able to do scenario comparison that revealed battery cost and the value of backup power are important drivers of distributed storage deployment,” said Ashreeta Prasanna, lead author of the NREL technical report, Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios.

The study provides one of the first published estimates of distributed battery storage deployment. The NREL team of analysts — also including Kevin McCabe, Ben Sigrin, and Nate Blair — modeled customer adoption of battery storage systems coupled with solar photovoltaics (PV) in the United States out to 2050 under several scenarios. The results can help inform planning for technical grid infrastructure to capture the benefits and mitigate the challenges of growing distributed electricity generation.

PV-Plus-Battery Scenarios

The Rise of Behind-the-Meter Battery Storage

A widespread transition to distributed energy resources (DERs) is taking place. Households and businesses around the world are adopting DERs to lower their energy bills and curb carbon emissions. Local policymakers have set ambitious energy and climate goals; grid resiliency is a growing concern due to climate change and weather disasters; and more communities face high energy burdens.

In addition, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order 2222 enables DERs to participate alongside traditional energy resources in regional organized wholesale markets.

All these factors have contributed to a rise in DER deployment, including batteries. With declining battery storage costs, customers are starting to pair batteries with distributed solar. Behind-the-meter battery capacity totaled almost 1 gigawatt in the United States by the end of 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie.

While DERs offer many benefits to customers and the grid, like peak load shifting, integrating these resources into the power system presents complex challenges for electric utilities. “The transmission system wasn’t designed with distributed generation in mind,” said Ben Sigrin, coauthor of the report. “Projected DER adoption potential can provide a window into distributed generation and help inform future power system planning.”

Bottom-up Modeling for Bottom-up Generation

NREL’s open-source Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model simulates customer adoption of distributed solar, wind, and storage using a bottom-up, agent-based approach and spatially resolved data (watch a Super Mario Bros.-inspired video to learn more).

For this phase of the Storage Futures Study, the model was modified to simulate the technical, economic, and market potential of behind-the-meter battery storage.

dGen interoperated with NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM), which simulates the performance and efficiency of energy technologies, including cash flow analysis to calculate payback periods — an important consideration in a customer’s decision to adopt a technology.

By interfacing with SAM, dGen modeled the cost-effectiveness and customer adoption of PV-plus-battery storage systems for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States with different technology costs, storage valuation, incentives, and compensation. The resulting upper and lower bounds of adoption revealed what customers consider most in their decisions.

Lower Battery Costs, High Backup-Power Value Drives Deployment

Across all 2050 scenarios, dGen modeled significant economic potential for distributed battery storage coupled with PV. Scenarios assuming modest projected declines in battery costs and lower value of backup power show economic potential for 114 gigawatts of storage capacity — a 90-times increase from today. When battery costs significantly reduce and the value of backup power doubles, the economic potential increases to 245 gigawatts.

However, only 7% of the estimated capacity is adopted by customers. The difference is largely due to the long payback period for distributed PV-plus-battery storage systems, which averages 11 years for the residential sector, 12 years for the commercial sector, and 8 years for the industrial sector in 2030.

“The estimated adoption potential translates to less than 20% of the market potential,” Prasanna said. “Customers are less inclined to invest in a system that takes a long time to be profitable.”

Modeled deployment varies by location based on specific rate structures or incentive programs but is generally driven by battery cost and the value of backup power. Similar trends are seen on the national scale, where lower battery costs and high backup-power value increase deployment.

PV and Batteries Drive Each Other’s Adoption

Several findings in the study demonstrate that PV and batteries make an economical pairing. Because an average PV-plus-battery storage system is larger than PV-only configurations, battery storage increases the PV capacity and the system’s economic value.

About 34%–40% of total annual PV installations projected in 2050 in the reference or baseline scenario are coadopted with batteries. This rate, again, is driven by higher value of backup power and lower technology costs.

Combined cost reductions in both PV and battery storage technologies drive additional adoption compared to cost reductions in just battery technology alone. When costs decrease for both technologies, more customers adopt PV-plus-battery systems, and deployment increases by 106% in 2050.

“The process of developing and implementing the distributed storage technology within dGen revealed additional questions and needed research capabilities related to behind-the-meter battery storage adoption,” Prasanna said. “Additional enhancements of dGen will be needed to explore research questions such as projecting the adoption of community-scale DERs and storage capacity and their impact on the distribution grid, exploration of the tradeoffs between distributed and utility-scale storage, and the role of DERs in supporting the transition to a decarbonized economy.”

Learn More at August 10 Webinar

NREL’s Storage Futures Study team will host a free public webinar on Tuesday, August 10, 2021, from 9 to 10 a.m. MT. You will learn more about the key drivers of customer adoption potential of distributed storage and how the study findings can help inform future power system planning. Register to attend.

Article courtesy of NREL.

Appreciate CleanTechnica’s originality? Consider becoming a CleanTechnica Member, Supporter, Technician, or Ambassador — or a patron on Patreon.


 



 


Have a tip for CleanTechnica, want to advertise, or want to suggest a guest for our CleanTech Talk podcast? Contact us here.

Continue Reading

Environment

Fintechs like Block and PayPal are battling like never before to be your all-in-one online bank

Published

on

By

Fintechs like Block and PayPal are battling like never before to be your all-in-one online bank

Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter Inc., speaks during the Bitcoin 2021 conference in Miami, Florida, U.S., on Friday, June 4, 2021.

Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Jack Dorsey’s Block got started as Square, offering small businesses a simple way to accept payments via smartphone. Affirm began as an online lender, giving consumers more affordable credit options for retail purchases. PayPal upended finance more than 25 years ago by letting businesses accept online payments.

The three fintechs, which were each launched by tech luminaries in different eras of Silicon Valley history, are increasingly converging as they seek to become virtual all-in-one banks. In their latest earnings reports this month, their lofty ambitions became more clear than ever.

Block was the last of the three to report, and the high-level numbers were troubling. Earnings and revenue missed estimates, sending the stock down 18%, its steepest drop in five years. But to hear Dorsey discuss the results, Block is successfully implementing a strategy of offering consumers the ability to pay businesses by smartphone, send money to friends through Cash App, and access credit and debit services while also getting more ways to invest in bitcoin.

In 2024, we expanded Square from a payments tool into a full commerce platform, enhanced Cash App’s financial services offerings, and restructured our organization,” Dorsey said on Block’s earnings call on Thursday after the bell.

Block and an expanding roster of fintech rivals have all come to see that their moats aren’t strong enough in their core markets to keep the competition away, and that the path to growth is through a diverse set of financial services traditionally offered by banks. They’re playing to an audience of digital-first consumers who either didn’t grow up using a brick-and-mortar bank or realized at an early age that they had no need to ever set foot in a physical branch, or to meet with a loan officer or customer service rep.

“Longer term, we see a significant opportunity to grow actives, particularly among that digital-native audience like Millennial and Gen Z,” Block CFO Amrita Ahuja said on the earnings call.

Block shares drop after reporting earnings and revenue miss

As part of its expansion, Block has encroached on Affirm’s turf, with an increasing focus on buy now, pay later (BNPL) offerings that it picked up in its $29 billion purchase of Afterpay, which closed in early 2022. Block’s market share in BNPL increased by one point to 19%, while Affirm held its position at 17%, according to a recent report from Mizuho. Both companies are outperforming Klarna in BNPL, the report said.

Block’s BNPL play is now tied into Cash App, with an integration activated this week that gives users another way to make purchases through a single app. With Cash App monthly active users stagnating at 57 million for the last few quarters, the company is focused on engagement rather than rapid user acquisition.

“We think that there is significant opportunity for growth longer term, but there are some deliberate decisions we’ve made as part of our banker-based strategy in the near term” that have kept user numbers from increasing, Ahuja said. “This is a part of our continuous enhancements to drive healthy customer engagement as we bank our base.”

Compared to Block, Wall Street had a very different reaction to Affirm’s earnings earlier this month, pushing the stock up 22% after the company’s results sailed past estimates.

Affirm founder and CEO Max Levchin, who was previously a co-founder of PayPal, built his company with the promise of giving consumers lower-cost and easy-to-tap intstallment loans for purchases like electronics, jewelry and travel.

The BNPL battlefront

Watch CNBC's full interview with PayPal CEO Alex Chriss

Under the leadership of CEO Alex Chriss, who took over the company in September 2023, PayPal is in the midst of a turnaround that involves working to better monetize products like Braintree and Venmo and joining the world of physical commerce with a debit card inside its mobile app.

Investors responded positively in 2024, pushing the stock up almost 40% after a brutal few years. But the stock dropped 13% after its earnings report, even as profit and revenue were better than expected. PayPal’s total payment volume for the quarter hit $437.8 billion, slightly below projections, while transaction margins rose to 47% from 45.8% — a sign of improving profitability.

One of Chriss’ big pushes is to get more out of Venmo, which has long been a popular way for friends to pay each other but hasn’t been a big hit with businesses. Venmo’s total payment volume in the quarter rose 10% year-over-year, with increased adoption at DoorDash, Starbucks, and Ticketmaster.

PayPal is also promoting Venmo’s debit card and “Pay With Venmo,” which saw 30% and 20% monthly active growth in 2024, respectively. The company is introducing new services to improve merchant retention, including its Fastlane one-click checkout feature, designed to compete with Apple Pay and Shopify’s Shop Pay.

Last year, the company launched PayPal Everywhere, a cashback-driven initiative designed to boost engagement within its mobile app. Chriss said on the earnings call that it’s “driving significant increases in debit card adoption and opening new categories of spend.”

As with virtually all financial services products, the new offerings from Block, Affirm and PayPal are designed to produce growth but not at the expense of profit. Banks operate at low margins, in large part because there’s so much competition for lower-priced loans and better cash-back options. There’s also all the costs associated with underwriting and compliance.

That’s the environment in which fintechs have to operate, though without the costs of running a network of physical branches.

Levchin talks about helping customers spend less, not more. And Block acknowledges the need for hefty investments to reach the company’s desired outcome.

“This is a part of our continuous enhancements to drive healthy customer engagement as we bank our base,” Ahuja said. “We’ve made investments in critical areas like compliance, support and risk. And as we’ve done that, we’ve progressed more of our actives through our identity verification process, which in turn, unlocks greater access to those actives to our full suite of financial tools.”

WATCH: CNBC’s full interview with PayPal CEO Alex Chriss

Watch CNBC's full interview with PayPal CEO Alex Chriss

Continue Reading

Environment

Trump to shut down all 8,000 EV charging ports at federal govt buildings

Published

on

By

Trump to shut down all 8,000 EV charging ports at federal govt buildings

The Trump administration is shutting down EV chargers at all federal government buildings and is also expected to sell off the General Services Administration‘s (GSA) newly bought EVs.

GSA, which manages all federal government-owned buildings, also operates the federal buildings’ EV chargers. Federally owned EVs and federal employee-owned personal EVs are charged on those 8,000 charging ports.

The Verge reports it’s been told by a source that plans will be officially announced internally next week, and it’s seen an email that GSA has already sent to regional offices about the plans:

“As GSA has worked to align with the current administration, we have received direction that all GSA-owned charging stations are not mission-critical.”

The GSA is working on the timing of canceling current network contracts that keep the EV chargers operational. Once those contracts are canceled, the stations will be taken out of service and “turned off at the breaker,” the email reads. Other chargers will be turned off starting next week.

“Neither Government Owned Vehicles nor Privately Owned Vehicles will be able to charge at these charging stations once they’re out of service.” 

Colorado Public Radio first reported yesterday that it had seen the email that was sent to the Denver Federal Center, which has 22 EV charging stations at 11 locations.

Advertisement – scroll for more content

The Trump/Elon Musk administration has taken the GSA’s fleet electrification webpage offline entirely. (An archived version is available here.)

The Verge‘s source also said that the GSA will offload the EVs it bought during the Biden administration, although it’s unknown whether they’ll be sold or stored.

Read more: Trump just canceled the federal NEVI EV charger program


If you live in an area that has frequent natural disaster events, and are interested in making your home more resilient to power outages, consider going solar and adding a battery storage system. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.

Continue Reading

Environment

Hackers steal $1.5 billion from exchange Bybit in biggest-ever crypto heist

Published

on

By

Hackers steal .5 billion from exchange Bybit in biggest-ever crypto heist

Ben Zhou, chief executive officer of ByBit, during the Token2049 conference in Singapore, on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2023. 

Joseph Nair | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Bybit, a major cryptocurrency exchange, has been hacked to the tune of $1.5 billion in digital assets, in what’s estimated to be the largest crypto heist in history.

The attack compromised Bybit’s cold wallet, an offline storage system designed for security. The stolen funds, primarily in ether, were quickly transferred across multiple wallets and liquidated through various platforms.

“Please rest assured that all other cold wallets are secure,” Ben Zhou, CEO of Bybit, posted on X. “All withdrawals are NORMAL.”

Blockchain analysis firms, including Elliptic and Arkham Intelligence, traced the stolen crypto as it was moved to various accounts and swiftly offloaded. The hack far surpasses previous thefts in the sector, according to Elliptic. That includes the $611 million stolen from Poly Network in 2021 and the $570 million drained from Binance in 2022.

Analysts at Elliptic later linked the attack to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, a state-sponsored hacking collective notorious for siphoning billions of dollars from the cryptocurrency industry. The group is known for exploiting security vulnerabilities to finance North Korea’s regime, often using sophisticated laundering methods to obscure the flow of funds.

“We’ve labelled the thief’s addresses in our software, to help to prevent these funds from being cashed-out through any other exchanges,” said Tom Robinson, chief scientist at Elliptic, in an email.

The breach immediately triggered a rush of withdrawals from Bybit as users feared potential insolvency. Zhou said outflows had stabilized. To reassure customers, he announced that Bybit had secured a bridge loan from undisclosed partners to cover any unrecoverable losses and maintain operations.

The Lazarus Group’s history of targeting crypto platforms dates back to 2017, when the group infiltrated four South Korean exchanges and stole $200 million worth of bitcoin. As law enforcement agencies and crypto tracking firms work to trace the stolen assets, industry experts warn that large-scale thefts remain a fundamental risk.

“The more difficult we make it to benefit from crimes such as this, the less frequently they will take place,” Elliptic’s Robinson wrote in a post.

WATCH: Crypto stocks plunge

Crypto stocks plunge despite SEC dropping suit against Coinbase

Continue Reading

Trending