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The Storage Futures Study (SFS) was launched in 2020 by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Storage Grand Challenge. The study explores how energy storage technology advancement could impact the deployment of utility-scale storage and adoption of distributed storage, as well as future power system infrastructure investment and operations.

There is economic potential for up to 490 gigawatts per hour of behind-the-meter battery storage in the United States by 2050 in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, or 300 times today’s installed capacity. But only a small fraction could be adopted by customers, according to the latest phase of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Storage Futures Study.

“By implementing new battery capabilities in our model, we were able to do scenario comparison that revealed battery cost and the value of backup power are important drivers of distributed storage deployment,” said Ashreeta Prasanna, lead author of the NREL technical report, Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios.

The study provides one of the first published estimates of distributed battery storage deployment. The NREL team of analysts — also including Kevin McCabe, Ben Sigrin, and Nate Blair — modeled customer adoption of battery storage systems coupled with solar photovoltaics (PV) in the United States out to 2050 under several scenarios. The results can help inform planning for technical grid infrastructure to capture the benefits and mitigate the challenges of growing distributed electricity generation.

PV-Plus-Battery Scenarios

The Rise of Behind-the-Meter Battery Storage

A widespread transition to distributed energy resources (DERs) is taking place. Households and businesses around the world are adopting DERs to lower their energy bills and curb carbon emissions. Local policymakers have set ambitious energy and climate goals; grid resiliency is a growing concern due to climate change and weather disasters; and more communities face high energy burdens.

In addition, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order 2222 enables DERs to participate alongside traditional energy resources in regional organized wholesale markets.

All these factors have contributed to a rise in DER deployment, including batteries. With declining battery storage costs, customers are starting to pair batteries with distributed solar. Behind-the-meter battery capacity totaled almost 1 gigawatt in the United States by the end of 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie.

While DERs offer many benefits to customers and the grid, like peak load shifting, integrating these resources into the power system presents complex challenges for electric utilities. “The transmission system wasn’t designed with distributed generation in mind,” said Ben Sigrin, coauthor of the report. “Projected DER adoption potential can provide a window into distributed generation and help inform future power system planning.”

Bottom-up Modeling for Bottom-up Generation

NREL’s open-source Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model simulates customer adoption of distributed solar, wind, and storage using a bottom-up, agent-based approach and spatially resolved data (watch a Super Mario Bros.-inspired video to learn more).

For this phase of the Storage Futures Study, the model was modified to simulate the technical, economic, and market potential of behind-the-meter battery storage.

dGen interoperated with NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM), which simulates the performance and efficiency of energy technologies, including cash flow analysis to calculate payback periods — an important consideration in a customer’s decision to adopt a technology.

By interfacing with SAM, dGen modeled the cost-effectiveness and customer adoption of PV-plus-battery storage systems for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States with different technology costs, storage valuation, incentives, and compensation. The resulting upper and lower bounds of adoption revealed what customers consider most in their decisions.

Lower Battery Costs, High Backup-Power Value Drives Deployment

Across all 2050 scenarios, dGen modeled significant economic potential for distributed battery storage coupled with PV. Scenarios assuming modest projected declines in battery costs and lower value of backup power show economic potential for 114 gigawatts of storage capacity — a 90-times increase from today. When battery costs significantly reduce and the value of backup power doubles, the economic potential increases to 245 gigawatts.

However, only 7% of the estimated capacity is adopted by customers. The difference is largely due to the long payback period for distributed PV-plus-battery storage systems, which averages 11 years for the residential sector, 12 years for the commercial sector, and 8 years for the industrial sector in 2030.

“The estimated adoption potential translates to less than 20% of the market potential,” Prasanna said. “Customers are less inclined to invest in a system that takes a long time to be profitable.”

Modeled deployment varies by location based on specific rate structures or incentive programs but is generally driven by battery cost and the value of backup power. Similar trends are seen on the national scale, where lower battery costs and high backup-power value increase deployment.

PV and Batteries Drive Each Other’s Adoption

Several findings in the study demonstrate that PV and batteries make an economical pairing. Because an average PV-plus-battery storage system is larger than PV-only configurations, battery storage increases the PV capacity and the system’s economic value.

About 34%–40% of total annual PV installations projected in 2050 in the reference or baseline scenario are coadopted with batteries. This rate, again, is driven by higher value of backup power and lower technology costs.

Combined cost reductions in both PV and battery storage technologies drive additional adoption compared to cost reductions in just battery technology alone. When costs decrease for both technologies, more customers adopt PV-plus-battery systems, and deployment increases by 106% in 2050.

“The process of developing and implementing the distributed storage technology within dGen revealed additional questions and needed research capabilities related to behind-the-meter battery storage adoption,” Prasanna said. “Additional enhancements of dGen will be needed to explore research questions such as projecting the adoption of community-scale DERs and storage capacity and their impact on the distribution grid, exploration of the tradeoffs between distributed and utility-scale storage, and the role of DERs in supporting the transition to a decarbonized economy.”

Learn More at August 10 Webinar

NREL’s Storage Futures Study team will host a free public webinar on Tuesday, August 10, 2021, from 9 to 10 a.m. MT. You will learn more about the key drivers of customer adoption potential of distributed storage and how the study findings can help inform future power system planning. Register to attend.

Article courtesy of NREL.

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Elon Musk says Tesla (TSLA) shorts are going to be ‘obliterated’, but there’s a big if

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Elon Musk says Tesla (TSLA) shorts are going to be 'obliterated', but there's a big if

Elon Musk claims that Tesla (TSLA) shorts, people betting against the company’s stock, are going to be ‘obliterated, ‘ but there’s a big if to his prediction.

‘Shorts’ is a term used to refer to people betting against the stock of a company. They have long played a significant role in Tesla’s history on the stock market, and CEO Elon Musk has frequently commented on the situation, going so far as to predict their downfall and criticize them at every opportunity.

Throughout the years, Tesla was often topping the list of the most shorted stocks on the NASDAQ. As the automaker became profitable, shorts started to take losses and lose interest.

However, people who shorted Tesla made a lot of money earlier this year after shorting the stock following a rally over Trump’s election and Musk’s relationship with Trump.

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Tesla’s stock has since recovered, and now, the short position on Tesla has stabilized at around 2.6% of the float, which is historically fairly regular and far from previous highs.

Nonetheless, CEO Elon Musk decided to take a jab at them today by claiming that they will be “obliterated” if they don’t sell their positions “before Tesla reaches autonomy at scale”:

“If they don’t exit their short position before Tesla reaches autonomy at scale, they will be obliterated.”

The operating phrase here is clearly: “before Tesla reaches autonomy at scale.”

Musk has been promising that Tesla will reach autonomy at scale by the end of every year for the last 6 years, and it has never happened.

The CEO’s latest timeline is that “autonomy will start positively contributing to Tesla around the second half of 2026.”

In the meantime, Tesla’s “Robotaxi” in Austin is still supervised by a Tesla employee in each vehicle, “Robotaxi” in California is just a ride-hailing service with employees in the driver’s seat, and Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving Supervised” in consumer cars has barely improved since Tesla launched v13 last year.

Electrek’s Take

I think Tesla shareholders hoping for a short squeeze should manage their expectations. With only 2.6% of the float and about a day to cover, any short squeeze would have a minimal impact.

However, I think Elon is probably right. If Tesla reaches autonomy at scale on his timeline, Tesla’s stock would shoot up, but there are huge caveats to this prediction.

Firstly, if you believe Elon’s latest timeline for the second half of next year, there are several significant events that are expected to occur at Tesla before then.

With the tax credit set to expire in the US and increasing competition in Europe and China, Tesla is expected to face several tough quarters after Q3. Elon himself admitted it during the last earnings call.

We are not just talking about Tesla continuing its earnings decline, which has been a clear trend for two years now, but we are talking about Tesla likely losing money, starting in Q1 2026. I don’t think shareholders and the market are ready for that.

Tesla’s liability regarding its failed autonomy promises and crashes is also increasing with more lawsuits advancing through the legal process every week.

In short, Tesla’s stock could take a significant hit over the next 12 months due to its declining EV business and increased liabilities.

Secondly, that’s assuming Elon’s latest autonomy prediction comes true, which has historically been a bad bet.

So Tesla’s fundamentals are about to crash, based on Elon’s own comment, but shorts will get “obliterated” if Elon’s historically terrible autonomy prediction finally comes true. Sounds like a big if to me.

That said, I wouldn’t necessarily recommend shorting Tesla’s stock based on this. The stock is clearly manipulated and trades primarily based on Elon Musk’s lies.

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Huffy’s latest cruiser e-bike costs just $299 – but what’s the catch?

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Huffy’s latest cruiser e-bike costs just 9 – but what’s the catch?

Huffy, the classic bicycle brand that became a staple of so many childhoods, is selling its Coastal Cruiser e‑bike for an enticing $299.

That sale price is marked down from an MSRP of $899 – which is much closer to what you’d expect to pay for something like this.

On the surface, $299 is pretty remarkable value. For less than most basic electric scooters (or even most decent pedal bikes), you’re getting a 26‑inch wheel electric cruiser with a 36V battery with a claimed 40-mile (64 km) range, a 350W rear‑hub motor, front and rear disc brakes, a comfort saddle, LCD display, and an LED headlight, all with free shipping. At 53 pounds (24 kg), that’s actually lighter than most electric cruisers out there.

But before you think you’ve stumbled on some too‑good‑to‑be‑true deal, it’s worth asking: why is it so cheap?

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First, caveats aside, Class 2 e‑bike compliance means it’s limited to 20 mph (32 km/h), so there’s no classic ‘Murican high-speed Class 3 riding here. You do get a throttle, but it’s 20 mph unless you’re going downhill. And if you do prefer Class 1 compliance, the right side thumb throttle looks easy enough to remove.

Then there’s the parts spec. While workable, the loadout is far from premium: mechanical disc brakes, single‑speed drivetrain, and no suspension. It’s clearly built for casual beachside or neighborhood cruising, not serious hills or daily commuting. At least Huffy does say it comes with an anti-corrosion coating, which should be good for seaside communities with salty air.

There is no word on the brand of the battery or motor, and there is no discussion of potential UL certification or other safety compliance for the battery or electrical system.

Then there’s the question of availability: Huffy is known for heavy discounting and frequent clearance moves. This may simply be them clearing out stock – possibly from overstock or just clearing warehouse space for new models. And while their 10-year warranty sounds generous, check the fine print: It’s only the frames that get the 10 years, while smaller components and the electrical system come with a six-month warranty.

Still, at $299, even a stripped-down, no-frills electric bike is tempting. For riders who just want a comfortable, simple, leisurely ride, like something for a relaxing cruise on the boardwalk to finish out the summer, this might be a compelling entry point. But go in expecting more of a relaxing cruiser than a performance commuter.

Electrek’s Take

I was pretty surprised to see this pop into my inbox, especially since past major sales from big bike companies are usually still twice this price.

Huffy’s Coastal Cruiser e-bike at $299 is definitely an attention-grabber, and maybe a bargain, but it’s worth a second look before assuming it’s a steal. As always, consider what you need in terms of power, range, quality, and long-term reliability. I’ve written before about the hidden cost of cheap e-bikes, and it’s something to keep in mind.

To be honest, I’m thinking of snagging one at this price, though almost more out of a sense of morbid curiosity for what $299 gets you (and I can hope that an article and video on the topic will come close to covering the outlay – an advantage not afforded to most people). It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve bought an ultra-low-cost e-bike just to see what I get.

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MASSIVE Skydweller solar drone flies for days on end without recharging

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MASSIVE Skydweller solar drone flies for days on end without recharging

With a 236-foot wingspan that’s wider than a 747’s, the battery and solar-powered Skydweller Aero drone is pushing the boundaries of aviation. And, after back-to-back three-day flights without recharging, it’s pushing the boundaries of energy efficiency, too, begging the question: is perpetual aviation really here?

In the thick and humid pre-dawn air of a thin ribbon of airstrip just north of Interstate 10 on Mississippi’s Gulf Coast, the Skydweller Aero crew set about proving that its massive unmanned drone, which promised to fly, without fuel, and virtually forever, could deliver.

Three-days later, the Skydweller came down, as planned. The crew checked it, inspected its 17,000 solar cells, gave it the all-clear, then took off again.

Forever flight


747-Sized Drone Flies For Three Days On Solar Power Alone
Skydweller solar plane; via Skydweller Aero.

“It always takes a little longer than you think, but we’re getting there,” says Robert Miller, CEO and co-founder of the perpetual solar flight startup. “Every 12 months we see a quantum step in where we’re headed.”

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Skydweller’s most recent three-day tests were conducted by the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division (NAWCAD). Fitting, as the Navy is one of the drone’s most likely customers.

The US military is believed to be interested in what an aircraft like Skydweller could bring to its operations in Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), which encompasses Mexico, Latin America, and nearby waters. With its 800 lb. payload capacity, it’s to see how a Skydweller drone could be loaded up with all manner of sensors, cameras, or radio receivers and sweep a given area constantly, providing an eagle-eyed view to support drug enforcement or rescue missions. And a Mark 82 bomb (if you’re into that sort of thing).

Skydweller Aero makes it clear, however, that the company isn’t out to become just a defense contractor. They have civilian ambitions for their aircraft, as well, and mention the possibilities of sensor suites for weather research, astronomy, law enforcement, and remote outpost support, as well as the possibility of serving as something like a “low orbit” Starlink satellite.

You can watch the Skydweller’s initial flight test from last summer, below, then let us know what you think the big drone’s primary use case will be (bombs) in the comments.

Skydweller Aero flight test


SOURCE | IMAGES: Skydweller Aero, via Jalopnik, NOLA.


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