The Conservatives could be in danger of losing more than a dozen seats in their so-called “blue wall” heartlands, a new poll suggests.
YouGov found that voting intention in 53 such constituencies in the south and east of England currently held by the party stood at 44% for the Conservatives, 24% for Labour, 18% for the Liberal Democrats and 9% for the Greens.
“The Conservatives could be set to lose up to 16 seats in their ‘blue wall’ heartlands if an election was held tomorrow,” research manager Patrick English said.
Our new survey of people in ‘Blue Wall’ constituencies shows that the Conservatives could lose up to 16 of these 53 heartland seats.
He said the voting intention figures represent “a change of minus eight for the Conservatives from their 2019 performance in these constituencies, plus four for Labour, a surprising six-point drop for the Liberal Democrats, and a sizable seven-point gain for the Greens”.
Mr English added: “The Conservatives are falling almost twice as fast in the blue wall as they are nationally, with the latest YouGov poll showing them five points down on their 2019 general election showing.”
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Those surveyed for the research expressed concerns about the government’s handling of Brexit and the need for people to have their say on local housing developments.
All of the seats voted Remain in the 2016 EU referendum and have a higher-than-average concentration of university degree holders.
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Boris Johnson currently has a Commons majority of more than 80, with the Tories taking a number of traditional Labour “red wall” constituencies in 2019 on the way to the party’s best election result in decades.
That success means the party would have to lose a number of seats elsewhere, in addition to any “blue wall” reverses, in order to see its status as the largest party in parliament evaporate.
Some have suggested the prime minister has been preoccupied with shoring up Tory support in the former Labour heartlands it now holds, at the expense of traditional Conservative constituencies.
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YouGov said its findings suggest that particular result was “no isolated incident”.
The Conservatives won the seat at the last general election in 2019 with a majority of more than 16,000.
But this was overturned by the Liberal Democrats, who won the constituency by 8,028 votes in what was a stunning result.
“If the swings were uniform across all constituencies, Labour would be set to gain a total of nine blue wall seats and the Liberal Democrats three,” Mr English said.
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Liberal Democrats take by election seat
“While it would not be anywhere near enough to offset the party’s losses in the so-called red wall in 2019, Labour punching holes in traditional Tory foundations will send alarm bells ringing across Conservative Associations and MPs in the south.”
YouGov said its findings suggest that constituencies such as Chingford and Woodford Green (represented by former cabinet minister and party leader Iain Duncan Smith), Chipping Barnet (currently held by former cabinet minister Theresa Villiers) and Wycombe (represented by prominent Brexiteer and former minister Steve Baker) could change hands.
“A large drop in the Conservative vote share would also severely threaten four other Tory constituencies, including current Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton as well as Cambridgeshire South, Cities of London and Westminster, and Guildford,” Mr English said.
YouGov polled 1,141 adults between 20 and 28 July.
June gives me a wry smile when I ask her if she trusts politicians. But it soon fades.
“They promise you the Earth, and you don’t see anything. And it’s soul destroying,” she says.
I meet her and husband Joe as they tuck into fish and chips in the town’s oldest chippy, the Peabung, which has served this town since 1883.
June tells me she really wants to trust politicians but they “just mess it up every time”. I ask Joe if he thinks politicians care about him? “Well hopefully they do. I’m not sure really.”
He stops to think for a moment. “I don’t really trust politicians,” he says.
The findings of a Sky News/YouGov poll are stark and echo how voters like June and Joe feel. The findings suggest voters no longer believe what politicians say.
In some places, there appears to be a deep loss of faith in British politics.
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Shannon Donnelly has nearly 200,000 followers on TikTok and has used the platform to develop her Grimsby-based business selling personal safety equipment, such as panic alarms. I ask her if she trusts politicians.
“No – I think things like Brexit has massively changed people’s opinion. I won’t forget when they said all that money would go to the NHS.
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“Now we seem to be in a worse position, but they still expect us to trust them. It’s crazy.”
The percentage of Leavers saying they “almost never” trust the government has leapt by 33 points (from 23% to 56%) since the last election. This is twice as much as the increase for Remainers.
Shannon’s lack of trust impacts on her livelihood and she says she doesn’t know which way to turn.
“For the business, obviously, it’s important to look at what they will do. We’re struggling. VAT is insane, overheads are crazy.”
Asked if people think politicians care about them, 83% of people asked said no, with just 11% saying they cared a little.
When asked how much do politicians care about your part of the country – there is a clear divide – 86% of people living in the north of England say they don’t care, whereas just 47% of Londoners say their elected representatives don’t care about their city.
Brian Wustrack owns the oldest fish and chip shop in Grimsby.
“They’re just not listening to the people that voted, it’s all a one-way system for them. They’ve lost touch with the people out there, especially the people in the North.”
The prime minister is still to announce the date of the next general election.
However, places like Grimsby and Cleethorpes are key election battlegrounds now. Support for the Conservatives may be fading but that won’t necessarily translate into strong support for Labour.
The Reform party is gaining ground in pro-Leave constituencies like this one, picking up their 2019 Tory voters.
But brace yourself for a raft of promises in the next few months.
The questions is will voters trust politicians to deliver on them.
The Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge is going to be live in Grimsby tonight with a special programme in our Target Towns series. She’ll be talking about trust in politics with a live audience – that’s live tonight on Sky News at 7pm
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ALL THE CANDIDATES IN NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE’S LOCAL ELECTIONS
Croft Baker Gemma Harney – Liberal Democrats Marian Jervis – Labour Party Graham Reynolds – Conservative Party
East Marsh Lloyd Emmerson – Liberal Democrats Barry Miller – Labour and Co-operative Party Callum Procter – Conservative Party
Freshney Tamzin Barton – Liberal Democrats Tanya Brasted – Conservative Party Paul Bright – Independent (part of Independents for North East Lincolnshire party group) Paul Wood – Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC) Samantha Wrexal Holborrow – Labour Party
Haverstoe Stephen Hocknell – Liberal Democrats Val O’Flynn – TUSC Bill Parkinson – Conservative Party Ian Townsend – Labour Party
Heneage Brian Barrett – Liberal Democrats Emma Clough – Labour Party Tyrone Curran – Conservative Party John Stiff – TUSC
Humberston & New Waltham Ryan Aisthorpe – Liberal Democrats Joe Carter – TUSC Hayden Dawkins – Conservative Party Pauline Kaczmarek – Labour Party
Immingham David Barton – Liberal Democrats Trevor Crofts – Conservative Party Nathan Newton – TUSC David Watson – Labour Party
Park Robson Augusta – Labour Party Zach Kellerman – Liberal Democrats Dave Mitchell – TUSC Daniel Westcott – Conservative Party
Scartho Charlotte Croft – Conservative Party Caroline Ellis – Liberal Democrats Dan Humphrey – Labour Party Val Pow – TUSC
Sidney Sussex Andy Burton – Liberal Democrats Alexandra Curran – Conservative Party Mark Gee – TUSC Edward Kaczmarek – Labour Party
South Paul Batson – Conservative Party Jane Bramley – Independent Andrew Harrison – Liberal Democrats Sheldon Mill – Labour Party Bill Ward – TUSC
Yarborough Les Bonner – Independent (part of the Independents for North East Lincolnshire party group) Sam Brown – Labour and Co-operative Party Phil Tuplin – TUSC Christine Vickers – Conservative Party Aharon Wharton – Liberal Democrats
The morning after the 2019 general election, Boris Johnson pledged to people in the North East who had voted Conservative for the first time that he and the party would “repay your trust”.
That year was the Brexit election, and the Conservatives ultimately won because they and Mr Johnson were trusted to “get Brexit done” – Jeremy Corbyn was not.
Five years on, exclusive polling by YouGov for Sky News finds that since then, the number of people saying they “almost never” trust the British government to place the needs of the nation above the interests of their own party has nearly doubled – from 26% to 49%.
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This spiralling level of distrust has been greatest for the bedrock of the Conservative’s electoral coalition – those who voted to leave the EU in 2016.
The percentage of Leavers saying they “almost never” trust government has leapt by 33 points (from 23% to 56%) since the last election – twice as much as the increase for Remainers.
It is the sort of people who live in places like Grimsby and Cleethorpes, which voted heavily to Leave the EU – by nearly 70% – who have lost most trust in British politics since 2019.
A disconnected politics
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Our polling reveals a deep loss of public faith in British politics since the last election.
This is all the more remarkable given the “rally” in public trust enjoyed by the government at the height of the pandemic.
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Nearly three-quarters of voters believe politicians don’t care what people like them think – this has risen from 51% to 73% over the past five years.
There has been a similar rise in the number of people who feel politicians in Westminster ignore the issues they care about – up from 50% to 67%.
A geography of discontent
Despite Mr Johnson’s pledge to repay the trust of new Conservative voters in the North, and promises of “levelling up”, there is a widespread view outside London that politicians in Westminster don’t care very much or at all about their part of the country.
The percentage of people saying politicians don’t care “at all” about their region is highest in Wales at 47% and the north of England at 39%.
This feeling is higher among Leave voters – 42% – than Remain voters -24%.
Five years of Conservative government has not delivered the legacy of trust hoped for by Mr Johnson.
‘They are all the same’
Perhaps most telling of all, the public currently see the parties as more like each other than at any election since 1964 – when polling records began.
Voters are more likely than ever before at 40% to say there is not much difference between Labour and the Conservatives, and less likely than ever to say there is “a great deal of difference” between them at just 12%.
This contrasts with 2019 when 47% of people said there was a great deal of difference between the parties.
Trust is about delivering on promises
Our research has found that across the world, one of the most important things needed for voters to consider politicians to be trustworthy is that they stick to their word and do what they say – so we asked whether the parties try to keep their promises.
Some 71% of people think the Conservative Party do not try to keep their promises, notably including 61% of 2019 Conservative voters.
Views on Labour are more mixed, with 47% of people saying they don’t try to keep their promises and 27% saying they do.
For the government, this deep public antipathy spells trouble for the next election.
In many parts of the country, voters feel politicians don’t care what they think or care about their area, ignore the issues that matter to them, and don’t offer a meaningful choice at the ballot box.
If Labour does benefit from a prevailing mood of public distrust at that election, its honeymoon may not last long as it will soon face the same winds of discontent.
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