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The Conservatives could be in danger of losing more than a dozen seats in their so-called “blue wall” heartlands, a new poll suggests.

YouGov found that voting intention in 53 such constituencies in the south and east of England currently held by the party stood at 44% for the Conservatives, 24% for Labour, 18% for the Liberal Democrats and 9% for the Greens.

“The Conservatives could be set to lose up to 16 seats in their ‘blue wall’ heartlands if an election was held tomorrow,” research manager Patrick English said.

He said the voting intention figures represent “a change of minus eight for the Conservatives from their 2019 performance in these constituencies, plus four for Labour, a surprising six-point drop for the Liberal Democrats, and a sizable seven-point gain for the Greens”.

Mr English added: “The Conservatives are falling almost twice as fast in the blue wall as they are nationally, with the latest YouGov poll showing them five points down on their 2019 general election showing.”

Those surveyed for the research expressed concerns about the government’s handling of Brexit and the need for people to have their say on local housing developments.

All of the seats voted Remain in the 2016 EU referendum and have a higher-than-average concentration of university degree holders.

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Boris Johnson currently has a Commons majority of more than 80, with the Tories taking a number of traditional Labour “red wall” constituencies in 2019 on the way to the party’s best election result in decades.

That success means the party would have to lose a number of seats elsewhere, in addition to any “blue wall” reverses, in order to see its status as the largest party in parliament evaporate.

Some have suggested the prime minister has been preoccupied with shoring up Tory support in the former Labour heartlands it now holds, at the expense of traditional Conservative constituencies.

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Others say such talk is wide of the mark, but the result of the recent Chesham and Amersham by-election offers potential evidence there could be something in such claims of cracks in the “blue wall”.

YouGov said its findings suggest that particular result was “no isolated incident”.

The Conservatives won the seat at the last general election in 2019 with a majority of more than 16,000.

But this was overturned by the Liberal Democrats, who won the constituency by 8,028 votes in what was a stunning result.

“If the swings were uniform across all constituencies, Labour would be set to gain a total of nine blue wall seats and the Liberal Democrats three,” Mr English said.

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Liberal Democrats take by election seat

“While it would not be anywhere near enough to offset the party’s losses in the so-called red wall in 2019, Labour punching holes in traditional Tory foundations will send alarm bells ringing across Conservative Associations and MPs in the south.”

YouGov said its findings suggest that constituencies such as Chingford and Woodford Green (represented by former cabinet minister and party leader Iain Duncan Smith), Chipping Barnet (currently held by former cabinet minister Theresa Villiers) and Wycombe (represented by prominent Brexiteer and former minister Steve Baker) could change hands.

“A large drop in the Conservative vote share would also severely threaten four other Tory constituencies, including current Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton as well as Cambridgeshire South, Cities of London and Westminster, and Guildford,” Mr English said.

YouGov polled 1,141 adults between 20 and 28 July.

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Heidi Alexander says ‘fairness’ will be government’s ‘guiding principle’ when it comes to taxes at next budget

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Heidi Alexander says 'fairness' will be government's 'guiding principle' when it comes to taxes at next budget

Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.

Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.

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Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.

Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.

“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”

Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.

“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”

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Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”

He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.

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Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.

Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.

Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.

With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.

The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.

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