Bank of England warns inflation may rise to 10-year high in coming months

Published

3 years ago

August 5, 2021

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The Bank of England has warned inflation will increase further this year to double the target rate, but insisted rising prices will only be temporary as it kept interest rates on hold.

The monetary policy committee (MPC) also kept in place measures to support the economy, despite some calls for them to be cut to cool cost pressures.

Latest economic forecasts from the Bank show it expects inflation to peak at 4% in 2021, against a previous prediction of 2.5%.

Although twice the government-set target, the Bank said it would be “transitory” and inflation will return to 2% in the medium term.

Although the MPC voted unanimously to hold rates at 0.1%, one member Michael Saunders voted to cut its £895bn bond-buying quantitative easing (QE) programme by £45bn in the face of concerns about hikes in inflation, but was outvoted by seven to one.

There had been speculation the Bank could halt the measure as the UK’s economic recovery spurs on sharp rises in the cost of living.

The Bank’s former chief economist Andy Haldane had repeatedly called for a £50bn QE cut before he left the committee last month.

However, others argued it was not the right time to reduce support for the economy, amid continuing uncertainty over the pandemic.

The Bank said: “The committee’s central expectation is that current elevated global and domestic cost pressures will prove transitory.

“Nonetheless, the economy is projected to experience a more pronounced period of above-target inflation in the near term than expected in the May Report.”

The Bank kept its growth forecast at 7.25% for 2021, as it said gross domestic product (GDP) was set to have risen by a better-than-expected 5% in the second quarter, but will slow to around 3% – weaker than first forecast – in the third quarter.

Its latest set of quarterly forecasts shows it expects the economy to then grow by 6% in 2022 and by 1.5% in 2023, compared to previous forecasts of 5.75% and 1.25% respectively.

The Bank said: “UK GDP (gross domestic product) is projected to recover further over the remainder of the year, reaching its pre-pandemic level in (the fourth quarter of) 2021, with demand growth boosted by a waning impact from COVID.

“Further out, the pace of GDP growth is expected to slow towards more normal rates, partly reflecting the gradual tightening in the stance of announced fiscal policy.”

It added: “Frictions in the labour market are judged likely to dissipate over the forecast period, boosting growth in effective supply capacity.

“There is uncertainty around these judgments, including how the economy will adjust to the end of the furlough scheme.”

Business

FTSE-100 housebuilder Persimmon weighs £1bn bid for rival Cala

Published

8 hours ago

May 25, 2024

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FTSE-100 housebuilder Persimmon weighs £1bn bid for rival Cala

One of Britain’s biggest housebuilders is exploring a £1bn takeover bid for Cala Group, a rival player in the sector which has been put up for sale.

Sky News has learned that Persimmon, which has a market value of £4.74bn, is leaning towards submitting an offer for Cala ahead of a bid deadline next week.

City sources said it would be a strong contender to buy Cala, whose homes have a significantly higher average sale price than those of Persimmon.

Insiders expect Cala, which is being auctioned by Legal & General (L&G), to command a price tag of about £1bn.

If Persimmon is successful in the auction, it would mark the York-based company’s biggest acquisition for years.

Under Roger Devlin, its chairman, and chief executive Dean Finch, the company’s share price has rallied by over 20% in the last year.

In a trading update last month, Persimmon said it was on track to deliver growth in new home completions this year to up to 10,500.

The Cala auction comes amid a general election campaign in which new home provision is expected to figure prominently.

Both main parties are likely to set out new policies to stimulate housebuilding growth, according to sources.

Analysts said this weekend that other housebuilders were also expected to consider bids for the L&G-owned company.

These could include, they said, Persimmon’s larger rival, Taylor Wimpey, and Avant Homes, which is owned by Elliott Advisors and Berkeley DeVeer.

Persimmon is the UK’s third-largest housebuilder by market capitalisation, behind Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments.

Both Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey were among eight housebuilders named by the Competition and Markets Authority in February over suspicions they had exchanged commercially sensitive information.

A takeover of Cala by another major housebuilder would underline fresh momentum in the industry’s consolidation, after Barratt Developments unveiled a £2.5bn deal to acquire rival Redrow.

The prospective sale of Cala represents the first significant strategic move by its new chief executive, Antonio Simoes.

Bankers at Rothschild are overseeing the auction.

Mr Simoes described Cala as “a very strong business” during an earnings call earlier this year on which he was quizzed about the housebuilder’s future ownership.

L&G took full control of the business in 2018.

Cala reported a slide in half-year profits last autumn, citing a “challenging market”.

The company has a long-term goal to build 3,000 homes annually.

Persimmon and L&G declined to comment on Saturday.

Business

Ex-Post Office boss Paula Vennells admits removing reference to Horizon IT system from Royal Mail prospectus

Published

1 day ago

May 24, 2024

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Ex-Post Office boss Paula Vennells admits removing reference to Horizon IT system from Royal Mail prospectus

Former Post Office boss Paula Vennells has admitted to amending the legal document Royal Mail issued to would-be investors before it became publicly owned to remove mention of the flawed Horizon IT system.

Data from the accounting software created by Fujitsu was used to prosecute more than 700 sub-postmasters for theft and false accounting.

Many more victims lost their homes, livelihoods and good reputation to repay non-existent shortfalls.

Now the inquiry set up to establish a clear account of the introduction and failure of Horizon has heard during Ms Vennells’s third and final day of questioning that she removed “at the very last minute” reference to Horizon from the prospectus Royal Mail issued before it was listed on the London Stock Exchange.

A prospectus is a legal and financial document detailing key information for potential company investors.

It was the first time the issue was raised with Ms Vennells.

She said: “It was flagged to me that in the IT section of the Royal Mail prospectus, there was reference to – I can’t remember the words now – but risks related to the Horizon IT system… the line that was put in said that no systemic issues had been found with the Horizon system.”

Ms Vennells wanted the reference removed as, “the Horizon system was no longer anything to do with the Royal Mail group” she said, and contacted the company secretary to have the reference removed.

Based on this action Ms Vennells wrote to a colleague “I have earned my keep on this”.

She was at the top of Post Office for 12 years and served as its chief executive for seven of those, from 2012 to 2019.

In at times emotional testimony, Ms Vennells said she “loved the Post Office” and worked “as hard as I possibly could to deliver the best Post Office for the UK”.

Business

Energy price cap: Average bills to fall by more than £100 – but predictions say they will rise again

Published

1 day ago

May 24, 2024

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Energy price cap: Average bills to fall by more than £100 - but predictions say they will rise again

The average annual energy bill will be £506 cheaper than a year ago from July, the sector’s regulator has announced.

The energy price cap – which limits what can be charged per unit of energy – is due to fall from the month after next.

It means the average annual bill will be £1,568 a year, 7% less than at present.

But while the July figure is a reduction, bills are still more expensive than before.

Before the energy price shock, caused primarily by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a standard 12-monthly bill was £1,084.

Money latest: Energy bills fall – but predictions say they will rise again

So compared with three years ago, energy is costing homes an extra £484.

During the current period from 1 April to 30 June, the energy price cap is set at £1,690 per year for a typical bill.

Energy regulator Ofgem sets the cap four times a year, with the latest announcement applying from July to September.

The overall rate of inflation came down in April – in large part thanks to the current higher cap which came into effect that month and brought prices down for energy users, according to the Office for National Statistics.

However, many households are in debt to energy providers.

“The fall in the energy price cap reduces bills slightly, but our data tells us millions have fallen into the red or are unable to cover their essential costs every month,” said Dame Clare Moriarty, the chief executive of Citizens Advice.

“People cannot rely on lower energy prices alone to escape the financial issues they’ve been experiencing. That’s why we need better targeted energy bill support for those really struggling to keep the lights on or cook a hot meal.”

More expense to come

Latest forecasts suggest bills will increase again coming into winter as wholesale gas costs are on the rise.

Respected research firm Cornwall Insight said it expects the fall announced today “may be temporary”.

It predicts a typical bill will increase to £1,762 from October and remain around this level until the end of March.

Gas prices reached four-month highs earlier this week on concerns that Russia could halt gas flows to Austrian multinational oil, gas and petrochemical company OMV and that US exports to Europe may be damaged by a contractor at a Texas terminal filing for bankruptcy protection.