Did the Lakers add the right pieces around LeBron, AD and Russ?
Two days after the start of free agency, the landscape of the NBA already looks very different.
The Miami Heat found their new starting point guard in Kyle Lowry via a sign-and-trade with the Toronto Raptors. The Chicago Bulls continued to revamp their roster with the acquisitions of DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball. The Los Angeles Lakers added seven free agents to the roster in less than two days, including future Hall of Famers Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard.
What were the most surprising moves? Did the Bulls and New York Knicks do enough to join the upper echelon in the Eastern Conference? Our NBA Insiders answer the big offseason questions and share what moves could still be made to help a contending team get over the top.
1. Which move was most surprising over the first two days?
Tim Bontemps: Nicolas Batum going back to the LA Clippers for only the non-Bird raise off his minimum contract last year. Batum had several teams interested in offering him more than that but chose to stay with the Clippers instead. Given Kawhi Leonard could very well miss the entire season, I thought he might be gettable by other contenders trying to make a push next season. Instead, he chose to remain part of the Clipper program — potentially setting himself up to get a healthy raise next summer, when the Clippers will hold his early Bird rights as they did with Reggie Jackson this summer.
Kirk Goldsberry: Patty Mills to Brooklyn. A lot of teams could have used Mills, who provides elite shooting and a great spark off the bench, but the Nets, who might already possess the best shooting team in the league, just added him anyway. Mills, who is currently leading Australia in the Tokyo Olympics, provides Brooklyn with yet another way to score efficiently from 3.
Andrew Lopez: The Bulls acquired DeRozan a day after landing Ball. DeRozan thrived last year with the ball in his hands for the San Antonio Spurs while racking up a career-high 6.9 assists. In his three seasons with San Antonio, DeRozan doubled his assists production from his first nine seasons in Toronto on a per-game basis: 6.2 to 3.1. Now he heads to a Chicago team where Ball is being brought in as the point guard and Zach LaVine will also command his fair share of the ballhandling duties. And to boot, Chicago is paying DeRozan $85 million over three years and had to ship out Thaddeus Young and multiple picks to do so.
Jorge Sedano: Lonzo Ball to the Chicago Bulls. Honestly, this is more about the New Orleans Pelicans letting him go for a package that was underwhelming. Ball had career highs in points, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and free throw percentage. Not to mention that he made more 3s than Trae Young and Bradley Beal last season. He and Zion Williamson had nice chemistry together as well. I like Nickeil Alexander-Walker, but he better be ready.
Ohm Youngmisuk: Andre Drummond to the Philadelphia 76ers. It’s understandable that Drummond’s value plummeted after last season’s Lakers experience, but now Drummond is a backup to Joel Embiid? The one good thing is Drummond should see some starts because of Embiid’s health. But if the Sixers keep Ben Simmons, Drummond only adds another non-perimeter shooter. For the Sixers, getting Drummond at this price is no risk. But you have to wonder how much Drummond will be able to increase his value in Philadelphia.
2. After their moves the past two days, the Bulls are a top-____ team in the East.
Goldsberry: Top eight. The East is loaded, so this is not an insult, but with teams like Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Philadelphia and Miami contending for the Eastern crown, the Bulls should be happy with any playoff seed this upcoming season. The East is now chock full of legitimate two-way squads fighting for supremacy, but I’m just not sure Chicago will be able to keep up, especially on defense.
Lopez: Top eight? They aren’t in the top class with Brooklyn or Milwaukee (or Philadelphia depending on your taste). Miami made a huge jump. New York and Atlanta are still there. Boston should be better. That leaves Chicago at the top of the middling part of the conference ahead of the Indianas and Charlottes of the world.
Sedano: Top seven. I love what the Bulls did at the trade deadline last season and what they’ve done in free agency. They are going to be a pest all season. A starting five of Ball, LaVine, DeRozan, Patrick Williams (or Lauri Markkanen) and Nikola Vucevic is definitely formidable. However, let’s not get too carried away just yet. The top of the East is still some combination of Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Miami, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Boston. The Knicks will be in the playoff picture, too. The East is no longer the “Leastern Conference.”
Youngmisuk: After their moves the past two days, the Bulls are a top-six team in the East. The addition of Ball alone was a huge boost for the Bulls. But adding DeRozan gives the Bulls a trio of scoring options with LaVine and Vucevic. It remains to be seen how DeRozan fits in with LaVine, but the Bulls will be competitive. Welcome back to playoff basketball, Chicago.
Bontemps: Top 12. I see the East being broken up into three tiers. The top features five teams, in some order: Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Miami, Philadelphia and Atlanta. The bottom features three more, again in some order: Cleveland, Detroit and Orlando. That leaves seven more — Chicago, Boston, New York, Indiana, Toronto, Washington and Charlotte — fighting for three playoff spots, plus two more play-in tournament spots. Given Chicago is going to have a truly horrid defense — it’ll be hard not to when playing DeRozan, Vucevic and LaVine — not only could I see them not making the playoffs, I think there’s a chance they miss the play-in tournament altogether. That, to be clear, is not what Chicago was counting on in making this trade.
3. What one word would you use to describe the Knicks’ moves?
Lopez: Uptosomething. OK, so I cheated a little bit. Replacing Bullock with Fournier was the only real move New York made outside of keeping its talent together. In the short term, the Knicks seem like they are betting on themselves to continue the growth the group made under coach Tom Thibodeau last season. But while their cap space in future years seems to have dried up, they have the right capital to make a move if a star becomes available.
Sedano: Typical. There is always a lot of fanfare surrounding the Knicks when they have money to spend. Usually, it’s uneventful. This was no different. Fournier is a good player, and they did a nice job keeping the band mostly intact. But, I do think teams will have a better read on them this upcoming season. They won’t surprise anyone this time around. They’re a legitimate playoff team, but nothing more than that. By the way, that should be fine after what Knicks fans have had to endure for the past decade or so. They should enjoy their (mostly) young and fun team.
Youngmisuk: Vanilla. And to be honest, vanilla isn’t a bad flavor, especially when it comes to the Knicks. Too often, the Knicks have poured too much money or assets into doomed mirages. After making the playoffs, the Knicks brought back several of their free agents and added Fournier. That doesn’t guarantee the Knicks another postseason berth. But as long as these contracts don’t cost them a shot at adding a legitimate star, should one become available in the trade market this season or next, Knicks fans will have to trust the current regime that it has a plan and be patient.
Bontemps: Puzzling. New York has spent the past couple of years painstakingly maintaining flexibility and cap space. Then, this offseason, they’ve turned around and given out long-term deals to Derrick Rose, Nerlens Noel, Alec Burks and Fournier, locking New York into a team that wasn’t good enough to get out of the first round last season, and doesn’t appear to have any path to being a top-four team in the East the next three years. I guess the Knicks will just be happy to try to make the playoffs again the next couple of years? But after their patient approach had paid nice dividends for them, it was odd to see them so rapidly change course like this.
Goldsberry: Random. The Knicks were rightfully the toast of the East last year, but they needed to make a splash this offseason to continue their ascendant trajectory in a suddenly deep conference. Instead, they lost Reggie Bullock and added Evan Fournier, while re-signing Noel, Rose and Burks. It’s not that they got worse — they didn’t — it’s that they failed to add a signature player who can move them up the East standings.
Pelton: A better Knicks team on paper might not translate into more wins
4. Fact or fiction: The Lakers put the right pieces around their new Big Three?
Sedano: Fact. They certainly got the right type of players to play around their new Big Three of James, Davis and Westbrook. There is a lot of shooting on the roster now. However, the new additions also add plenty of mileage to Frank Vogel’s rotation, something he’ll have to manage on a nightly basis. I feel confident that Anthony and Howard will get minutes. I would expect the same for Kent Bazemore, too. Vogel is a defensive-minded coach and of the perimeter scoring threats they added, Bazemore is the best on that end. If other perimeter players like Wayne Ellington, Kendrick Nunn and Talen Horton-Tucker can find a way to survive on the defensive end, the Lakers will have successfully solidified their rotation.
Youngmisuk: Fact. General manager Pelinka went out and revamped this roster by adding an intriguing blend of veterans and young players with potential. Vets like Anthony, Trevor Ariza, Ellington and Bazemore should improve the perimeter shooting. And the Monk and Nunn signings are steals. The downside? The Lakers might have defensive issues, which isn’t good for a Frank Vogel team. The bigger question might be: Is the Lakers’ Big Three the right fit?
Bontemps: Fiction, but not because of the moves the Lakers made. Instead, it’s a simple acceptance of the reality Los Angeles finds itself faced with a roster that is going to be more than half filled with minimum contracts. The minimums the Lakers have landed have largely been fine. That being said, they are minimum contracts for a reason — all of them are flawed players. Getting Nunn for the tax mid-level was a nice move, too. But the defense has suffered a massive downgrade, the fit issues with Russell Westbrook and LeBron James are real, and this team currently has more players 35 and over than under 30. That’s not a recipe for success.
Goldsberry: Fiction. I don’t like the spacing in Lakerland. While James, Anthony Davis and Westbrook are all awesome, they all need to pressure the rim to truly thrive as scorers. None of them are great off-ball perimeter threats, which means the Lakers need to surround this trio with loads of shooting talent, and they just haven’t done that. Make no mistake, they have some shooting talent with Carmelo Anthony, Ariza and Ellington on board, but their inability to fill it up from 3 could be a big concern in the 2021-22 season.
Lopez: Fact. The Lakers desperately needed shooting after going with a Russ-LeBron-AD trio. And they did just that. Wayne Ellington (42.2%), Carmelo Anthony (40.9%), Kent Bazemore (40.8%), Malik Monk (40.1%) and Kendrick Nunn (38.1%) all shot above 38% from 3 last year. The depth of the additions will go a long way with the Lakers’ older core.
5. What’s one move that could still help a contender?
Youngmisuk: Any contender still looking for a point guard could check in with Oklahoma City on Kemba Walker. If, and it’s a big if, Walker’s knee is healthy and checks out, the former All-Star could provide a contender with a scoring punch of 20 or more points per game. That contender, though, better come armed with draft picks.
Bontemps: Even just a couple of days in, the free-agent marketplace is already running out of interesting options. Still, there are four interesting players still sitting there to be had: Dennis Schroder, Danny Green, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Reggie Jackson. If any of the contending teams can find a way to land one of them, it’s a win. Otherwise? We’re at the point in free agency when much of this is simply rearranging the furniture for the sake of doing so.
Goldsberry: The Bucks need to replace P.J. Tucker, and Green is just the guy to do it. Green is a champion who provides excellent corner 3-point shooting and solid perimeter defense. Tucker is a big loss for the champs, but Green could be a perfect replacement.
Lopez: Philadelphia could make that Ben Simmons trade. Depending on the return, it could shake things up in the Eastern Conference and give the Sixers the push they need to make it over the top.
Sedano: Schroder. I know the season didn’t end great for him. He’s still a viable Sixth Man of the Year candidate on the right team. He will likely have to alter his contract demands, but he can certainly help a contender.
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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